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Data Snooping In Financial Markets
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Book Synopsis Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models by : Andrew W. Lo
Download or read book Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models written by Andrew W. Lo and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the extent to which tests of financial asset pricing models may be biased by using properties of the data to construct the test statistics. Specifically, we focus on tests using returns to portfolios of common stock where portfolios are constructed by sorting on some empirically motivated characteristic of the securities such as market value of equity. We present both analytical calculations and Monte Carlo simulations that show the effects of this type of data-snooping to be substantial. Even when the sorting characteristic is only marginally correlated with individual security statistics, 5 percent tests based on sorted portfolio returns may reject with probability one under the null hypothesis. This bias is shown to worsen as the number of securities increases given a fixed number of portfolios, and as the number of portfolios decreases given a fixed number of securities. We provide an empirical example that illustrates the practical relevance of these biases.
Book Synopsis Data-snooping in Financial Markets by : Ryan Michael Sullivan
Download or read book Data-snooping in Financial Markets written by Ryan Michael Sullivan and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 764 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Data-snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap by : Ryan Sullivan
Download or read book Data-snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap written by Ryan Sullivan and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Data-snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models by : Andrew Wen-Chuan Lo
Download or read book Data-snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models written by Andrew Wen-Chuan Lo and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the extent to which tests of financial asset pricing models may be biased by using properties of the data to construct the test statistics. Specifically, we focus on tests using returns to portfolios of common stock where portfolios are constructed by sorting on some empirically motivated characteristic of the securities such as market value of equity. We present both analytical calculations and Monte Carlo simulations that show the effects of this type of data-snooping to be substantial. Even when the sorting characteristic is only marginally correlated with individual security statistics, 5 percent tests based on sorted portfolio returns may reject with probability one under the null hypothesis. This bias is shown to worsen as the number of securities increases given a fixed number of portfolios, and as the number of portfolios decreases given a fixed number of securities. We provide an empirical example that illustrates the practical relevance of these biases.
Book Synopsis Data Snooping and Market-Timing Rule Performance by : Andreas Neuhierl
Download or read book Data Snooping and Market-Timing Rule Performance written by Andreas Neuhierl and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We reassess the performance of market-timing rules when controlling for data-snooping biases. For the first time, a comprehensive set of simple and complex market-timing rules is examined and tested for statistical signi ficance, using the White (2000) 'Reality Check,quot; the Hansen (2005) SPA test, as well as their stepwise extensions by Romano and Wolf (2005) and Hsu et al. (2009). Even though individual market-timing rules signi ficantly outperform a buy-and-hold strategy at both daily and monthly frequencies when considered in isolation, their outperformance, generally, does not remain signi ficant after correcting for data snooping. Relative to the alternative of investing in the risk-free rate, however, we find signi ficant outperformance of the best rules, even after data-snooping adjustment, when testing at a monthly timing frequency.
Book Synopsis Cross Asset Class Applications of Functional Data Analysis by : Fearghal J. Kearney
Download or read book Cross Asset Class Applications of Functional Data Analysis written by Fearghal J. Kearney and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis applies functional data analysis techniques to address a number of specific research questions in financial markets. Data snooping bias controls are adopted in parallel to provide statistical robustness to our inferences. Firstly, we conduct an investigation into U.S. exchange-traded fund outperformance during the 2008-2012 period. The funds are tested for net asset value premium, underlying index and market benchmark outperformance. The study serves as a platform to showcase the data snooping bias problem and application of generalised multiple hypothesis testing techniques, in advance of their use for functional data analysis evaluation. Secondly, as the first application of functional data analysis, we examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. Next, we demonstrate the performance advantage over traditional benchmarks of adopting a functional linear model to forecast EUR-USD implied volatility. Our findings are shown to be robust across various moneyness segments, contract maturities and out-of-sample window lengths. The final chapter also uses a functional data framework to produce forecasts, demonstrating how information can be extracted from forward contracts to predict future spot foreign exchange rates. The evaluation of an out-of-sample framework leads to near systematic outperformance in terms of a direct comparison of performance measures, versus both the restricted vector error correction model and random walk. Overall, this thesis highlights the usefulness of adopting insightful and novel functional data analysis techniques across various asset classes where multiple hypothesis testing controls provide robustness around our conclusions. Each of the studies contributes to the literature individually, with the collection emphasising the benefits of adopting functional approaches to tackle a wide range of empirical finance problems.
Book Synopsis A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street by : Andrew W. Lo
Download or read book A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street written by Andrew W. Lo and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-11-14 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For over half a century, financial experts have regarded the movements of markets as a random walk--unpredictable meanderings akin to a drunkard's unsteady gait--and this hypothesis has become a cornerstone of modern financial economics and many investment strategies. Here Andrew W. Lo and A. Craig MacKinlay put the Random Walk Hypothesis to the test. In this volume, which elegantly integrates their most important articles, Lo and MacKinlay find that markets are not completely random after all, and that predictable components do exist in recent stock and bond returns. Their book provides a state-of-the-art account of the techniques for detecting predictabilities and evaluating their statistical and economic significance, and offers a tantalizing glimpse into the financial technologies of the future. The articles track the exciting course of Lo and MacKinlay's research on the predictability of stock prices from their early work on rejecting random walks in short-horizon returns to their analysis of long-term memory in stock market prices. A particular highlight is their now-famous inquiry into the pitfalls of "data-snooping biases" that have arisen from the widespread use of the same historical databases for discovering anomalies and developing seemingly profitable investment strategies. This book invites scholars to reconsider the Random Walk Hypothesis, and, by carefully documenting the presence of predictable components in the stock market, also directs investment professionals toward superior long-term investment returns through disciplined active investment management.
Book Synopsis Data Snooping and the Profitability of Trading Strategies by :
Download or read book Data Snooping and the Profitability of Trading Strategies written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Statistical Models and Methods for Financial Markets by : Tze Leung Lai
Download or read book Statistical Models and Methods for Financial Markets written by Tze Leung Lai and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-07-25 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The idea of writing this bookarosein 2000when the ?rst author wasassigned to teach the required course STATS 240 (Statistical Methods in Finance) in the new M. S. program in ?nancial mathematics at Stanford, which is an interdisciplinary program that aims to provide a master’s-level education in applied mathematics, statistics, computing, ?nance, and economics. Students in the programhad di?erent backgroundsin statistics. Some had only taken a basic course in statistical inference, while others had taken a broad spectrum of M. S. - and Ph. D. -level statistics courses. On the other hand, all of them had already taken required core courses in investment theory and derivative pricing, and STATS 240 was supposed to link the theory and pricing formulas to real-world data and pricing or investment strategies. Besides students in theprogram,thecoursealso attractedmanystudentsfromother departments in the university, further increasing the heterogeneity of students, as many of them had a strong background in mathematical and statistical modeling from the mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences but no previous experience in ?nance. To address the diversity in background but common strong interest in the subject and in a potential career as a “quant” in the ?nancialindustry,thecoursematerialwascarefullychosennotonlytopresent basic statistical methods of importance to quantitative ?nance but also to summarize domain knowledge in ?nance and show how it can be combined with statistical modeling in ?nancial analysis and decision making. The course material evolved over the years, especially after the second author helped as the head TA during the years 2004 and 2005.
Book Synopsis Pairs Trading by : Ganapathy Vidyamurthy
Download or read book Pairs Trading written by Ganapathy Vidyamurthy and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-02-02 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first in-depth analysis of pairs trading Pairs trading is a market-neutral strategy in its most simple form. The strategy involves being long (or bullish) one asset and short (or bearish) another. If properly performed, the investor will gain if the market rises or falls. Pairs Trading reveals the secrets of this rigorous quantitative analysis program to provide individuals and investment houses with the tools they need to successfully implement and profit from this proven trading methodology. Pairs Trading contains specific and tested formulas for identifying and investing in pairs, and answers important questions such as what ratio should be used to construct the pairs properly. Ganapathy Vidyamurthy (Stamford, CT) is currently a quantitative software analyst and developer at a major New York City hedge fund.
Book Synopsis Empirical Asset Pricing by : Wayne Ferson
Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Book Synopsis Detecting Regime Change in Computational Finance by : Jun Chen
Download or read book Detecting Regime Change in Computational Finance written by Jun Chen and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-09-14 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on interdisciplinary research into "Directional Change", a new data-driven approach to financial data analysis, Detecting Regime Change in Computational Finance: Data Science, Machine Learning and Algorithmic Trading applies machine learning to financial market monitoring and algorithmic trading. Directional Change is a new way of summarising price changes in the market. Instead of sampling prices at fixed intervals (such as daily closing in time series), it samples prices when the market changes direction ("zigzags"). By sampling data in a different way, this book lays out concepts which enable the extraction of information that other market participants may not be able to see. The book includes a Foreword by Richard Olsen and explores the following topics: Data science: as an alternative to time series, price movements in a market can be summarised as directional changes Machine learning for regime change detection: historical regime changes in a market can be discovered by a Hidden Markov Model Regime characterisation: normal and abnormal regimes in historical data can be characterised using indicators defined under Directional Change Market Monitoring: by using historical characteristics of normal and abnormal regimes, one can monitor the market to detect whether the market regime has changed Algorithmic trading: regime tracking information can help us to design trading algorithms It will be of great interest to researchers in computational finance, machine learning and data science. About the Authors Jun Chen received his PhD in computational finance from the Centre for Computational Finance and Economic Agents, University of Essex in 2019. Edward P K Tsang is an Emeritus Professor at the University of Essex, where he co-founded the Centre for Computational Finance and Economic Agents in 2002.
Book Synopsis The Econometrics of Financial Markets by : John Y. Campbell
Download or read book The Econometrics of Financial Markets written by John Y. Campbell and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-06-28 with total page 630 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past twenty years have seen an extraordinary growth in the use of quantitative methods in financial markets. Finance professionals now routinely use sophisticated statistical techniques in portfolio management, proprietary trading, risk management, financial consulting, and securities regulation. This graduate-level textbook is intended for PhD students, advanced MBA students, and industry professionals interested in the econometrics of financial modeling. The book covers the entire spectrum of empirical finance, including: the predictability of asset returns, tests of the Random Walk Hypothesis, the microstructure of securities markets, event analysis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the term structure of interest rates, dynamic models of economic equilibrium, and nonlinear financial models such as ARCH, neural networks, statistical fractals, and chaos theory. Each chapter develops statistical techniques within the context of a particular financial application. This exciting new text contains a unique and accessible combination of theory and practice, bringing state-of-the-art statistical techniques to the forefront of financial applications. Each chapter also includes a discussion of recent empirical evidence, for example, the rejection of the Random Walk Hypothesis, as well as problems designed to help readers incorporate what they have read into their own applications.
Book Synopsis Financial Markets and Trading by : Anatoly B. Schmidt
Download or read book Financial Markets and Trading written by Anatoly B. Schmidt and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-07-05 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An informative guide to market microstructure and trading strategies Over the last decade, the financial landscape has undergone a significant transformation, shaped by the forces of technology, globalization, and market innovations to name a few. In order to operate effectively in today's markets, you need more than just the motivation to succeed, you need a firm understanding of how modern financial markets work and what professional trading is really about. Dr. Anatoly Schmidt, who has worked in the financial industry since 1997, and teaches in the Financial Engineering program of Stevens Institute of Technology, puts these topics in perspective with his new book. Divided into three comprehensive parts, this reliable resource offers a balance between the theoretical aspects of market microstructure and trading strategies that may be more relevant for practitioners. Along the way, it skillfully provides an informative overview of modern financial markets as well as an engaging assessment of the methods used in deriving and back-testing trading strategies. Details the modern financial markets for equities, foreign exchange, and fixed income Addresses the basics of market dynamics, including statistical distributions and volatility of returns Offers a summary of approaches used in technical analysis and statistical arbitrage as well as a more detailed description of trading performance criteria and back-testing strategies Includes two appendices that support the main material in the book If you're unprepared to enter today's markets you will underperform. But with Financial Markets and Trading as your guide, you'll quickly discover what it takes to make it in this competitive field.
Book Synopsis Testing the Predictive Ability of Technical Analysis Using a New Stepwise Test Without Data Snooping Bias by : Po-Hsuan Hsu
Download or read book Testing the Predictive Ability of Technical Analysis Using a New Stepwise Test Without Data Snooping Bias written by Po-Hsuan Hsu and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the finance literature, statistical inferences for large-scale testing problems usually suffer from data snooping bias. In this paper we extend the quot;superior predictive abilityquot; (SPA) test of Hansen (2005, JBES) to a stepwise SPA test that can identify predictive models without potential data snooping bias. It is shown analytically and by simulations that the stepwise SPA test is more powerful than the stepwise Reality Check test of Romano and Wolf (2005, Econometrica). We then apply the proposed test to examine the predictive ability of technical trading rules based on the data of growth and emerging market indices and their exchange traded funds (ETFs). It is found that technical trading rules have significant predictive power for these markets, yet such evidence weakens after the ETFs are introduced.
Book Synopsis A Reappraisal of the Efficiency of Financial Markets by : Rui M.C. Guimaraes
Download or read book A Reappraisal of the Efficiency of Financial Markets written by Rui M.C. Guimaraes and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 799 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The behaviour of market prices is a fascinating subject for researchers. Opinions vary substantially. from the view that prices accurately and quickly reflect relevant information to the other extreme that prices are not rationally determined and are hence to some degree predictable. This diversity of belief about the efficiency of markets is reflected in these proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on "A reappraisal of the efficiency of financial markets". The thirty-one workshop papers cover stock. currency and commodity markets. We are pleased to have contributions on markets in eleven NATO countries: Belgium. Canada. Denmark. France. Germany. Greece. Italy. the Netherlands. Portugal. the United Kingdom and the United States. The workshop papers thus provide a wide-ranging account of contemporary research into financial markets worldwide. The workshop was held at the Hotel do Mar. Sesimbra. Portugal from April 11 th to April 15th. 1988. We record our gratitude to Jose Cabral for ensuring the smooth progress of the workshop. The generous financial assistance of NATO was supplemented by contributions from: The Chicago Board of Trade. Alianca Seguradora. Banco Comercial Portugues. Fundacao Luso-Americana Para 0 Desenvolvimento. Junta Nacional de Investigacao Cientifica e Tecnologica. We speak for all the workshop participants in expressing our thanks to all our sponsors. Rui M. Campos Guimaraes. University of Porto.
Book Synopsis Effective Trading in Financial Markets Using Technical Analysis by : Smita Roy Trivedi
Download or read book Effective Trading in Financial Markets Using Technical Analysis written by Smita Roy Trivedi and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2020-10-29 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1. Provides a comprehensive guide to effective trading in the financial markets through the application of technical analysis. 2. Presents in-depth coverage of technical analysis tools (including trade setups) as well as Backtesting and Algorithmic Trading; discusses advanced concepts such as Elliott Wave, Time Cycles, and Momentum, Volume and Volatility Indicators from the perspective of the global markets and especially India; blends practical insights and research updates for professional trading, investments and financial market analyses; includes detailed examples, case studies, comparisons, figures and illustrations from different asset classes and markets in simple language 3. The book will be essential for scholars and researchers of finance, economics and management studies, as well as professional traders and dealers in financial institutions (including banks) and corporates, fund managers, brokerage houses, corporate treasuries, investors, and anyone interested in financial markets.
