Credible

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Credible

Author : Deborah Tuerkheimer
Publisher : HarperCollins
ISBN 13 : 0063002760
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (63 download)

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Book Synopsis Credible by : Deborah Tuerkheimer

Download or read book Credible written by Deborah Tuerkheimer and published by HarperCollins. This book was released on 2021-10-05 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this landmark book, a former prosecutor, legal expert, and leading authority on sexual violence examines why we are primed to disbelieve allegations of sexual abuse—and how we can transform a culture and a legal system structured to dismiss accusers Sexual misconduct accusations spark competing claims: her word against his. How do we decide who is telling the truth? The answer comes down to credibility. But as this eye-opening book reveals, invisible forces warp the credibility judgments of even the well- intentioned among us. We are all shaped by a set of false assumptions and hidden biases embedded in our culture, our legal system, and our psyches. In Credible, Deborah Tuerkheimer provides a much-needed framework to explain how we perceive credibility, why our perceptions are distorted, and why these distortions harm survivors. Social hierarchies and inequalities foster doubt that is commonplace and predictable, resulting in what Tuerkheimer calls the “credibility discount”—our dismissal of claims by certain kinds of speakers—primarily women, and especially those who are more marginalized. The #MeToo movement has exposed how victims have been badly served by a system that is designed not to protect them, but instead to protect the status quo. Credibility lies at the heart of this system. Drawing on case studies, moving first-hand accounts, science, and the law, Tuerkheimer identifies widespread patterns and their causes, analyzes the role of power, and examines the close, reciprocal relationship between culture and law—guiding us toward accurate credibility judgments and equitable treatment of those whose suffering has long been disregarded. #MeToo has touched off a massive reckoning. To achieve lasting progress, we must shift our approach to belief. Credible helps us forge a path forward to ensuring justice for the countless individuals affected by sexual misconduct.

Be Credible

Author : Peter Bobkowski
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781936153121
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (531 download)

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Book Synopsis Be Credible by : Peter Bobkowski

Download or read book Be Credible written by Peter Bobkowski and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book teaches college-level journalism and strategic communication students to become information experts.

Credible and Actionable Evidence

Author : Stewart I. Donaldson
Publisher : SAGE Publications
ISBN 13 : 148335508X
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (833 download)

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Book Synopsis Credible and Actionable Evidence by : Stewart I. Donaldson

Download or read book Credible and Actionable Evidence written by Stewart I. Donaldson and published by SAGE Publications. This book was released on 2014-09-10 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Addressing one of the most important and contentious issues challenging applied research and evaluation practice today—what constitutes credible and actionable evidence?—this volume offers a balanced and current context in which to analyze the long-debated quantitative-qualitative paradigms. In the Second Edition, the contributors, a veritable “who’s who” in evaluation, discuss the diversity and changing nature of credible and actionable evidence; offer authoritative guidance about using credible and actionable evidence; explain how to use it to provide rigorous and influential evaluations; and include lessons from their own applied research and evaluation to suggest ways to address the key issues and challenges. Reflecting the latest developments in the field and covering both experimental and non-experimental methods, the new edition includes revised and updated chapters, summaries of strengths and weaknesses across varied approaches, and contains diverse definitions of evidence. Also included are two new chapters on assessing credibility and synthesizing evidence for policy makers. This is a valuable resource for students and others interested in how to best study and evaluate programs, policies, organizations, and other initiatives designed to improve aspects of the human condition and societal well-being.

Commodity Price Shocks and Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies in Commodity-Exporting Small Open Economies

Author : Juan Pablo Medina Guzman
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484306392
Total Pages : 43 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Shocks and Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies in Commodity-Exporting Small Open Economies by : Juan Pablo Medina Guzman

Download or read book Commodity Price Shocks and Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies in Commodity-Exporting Small Open Economies written by Juan Pablo Medina Guzman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-13 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we analyze how lack of credibility and transparency of monetary and fiscal policies undermines the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to isolate the economy from commodity price fluctuations. We develop a general equilibrium model for a commodity-exporting economy where macro policies are conducted through rules. We show that the responses of output, aggregate demand, and inflation to an increase in commodity price are magnified when these rules are imperfectly credible and lack transparency. If policies are imperfectly credible, then transparency helps private agents to learn the systematic behavior of the autorities, reducing the effects of commodity prices shocks. Coherent with the model, we show cross-country evidence that monetary policy transparency and fiscal credibility reduce the incidence of export price volatility on output volatility. Also, our results indicate that having an explicit fiscal rule and an inflation targeting regime contribute to isolate the economy from terms of trade fluctuations.

Planning and Executing Credible Experiments

Author : Robert J. Moffat
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119532876
Total Pages : 356 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (195 download)

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Book Synopsis Planning and Executing Credible Experiments by : Robert J. Moffat

Download or read book Planning and Executing Credible Experiments written by Robert J. Moffat and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-01-19 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covers experiment planning, execution, analysis, and reporting This single-source resource guides readers in planning and conducting credible experiments for engineering, science, industrial processes, agriculture, and business. The text takes experimenters all the way through conducting a high-impact experiment, from initial conception, through execution of the experiment, to a defensible final report. It prepares the reader to anticipate the choices faced during each stage. Filled with real-world examples from engineering science and industry, Planning and Executing Credible Experiments: A Guidebook for Engineering, Science, Industrial Processes, Agriculture, and Business offers chapters that challenge experimenters at each stage of planning and execution and emphasizes uncertainty analysis as a design tool in addition to its role for reporting results. Tested over decades at Stanford University and internationally, the text employs two powerful, free, open-source software tools: GOSSET to optimize experiment design, and R for statistical computing and graphics. A website accompanies the text, providing additional resources and software downloads. A comprehensive guide to experiment planning, execution, and analysis Leads from initial conception, through the experiment’s launch, to final report Prepares the reader to anticipate the choices faced throughout an experiment Hones the motivating question Employs principles and techniques from Design of Experiments (DoE) Selects experiment designs to obtain the most information from fewer experimental runs Offers chapters that propose questions that an experimenter will need to ask and answer during each stage of planning and execution Demonstrates how uncertainty analysis guides and strengthens each stage Includes examples from real-life industrial experiments Accompanied by a website hosting open-source software Planning and Executing Credible Experiments is an excellent resource for graduates and senior undergraduates—as well as professionals—across a wide variety of engineering disciplines.

The Supernatural in the New Testament Possible, Credible, and Historical. ...

Author : Charles Adolphus Row
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 548 pages
Book Rating : 4.V/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The Supernatural in the New Testament Possible, Credible, and Historical. ... by : Charles Adolphus Row

Download or read book The Supernatural in the New Testament Possible, Credible, and Historical. ... written by Charles Adolphus Row and published by . This book was released on 1875 with total page 548 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Credible Threat

Author : J.A. Jance
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1982131098
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (821 download)

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Book Synopsis Credible Threat by : J.A. Jance

Download or read book Credible Threat written by J.A. Jance and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2020-06-02 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ali Reynolds and her team at High Noon Enterprises must race against the clock to save an archbishop who faces mysterious death threats in this “masterly study of the effects of grief, rage, and the power of forgiveness” (Publishers Weekly) by New York Times bestselling author J.A. Jance. Years after her son’s fatal overdose, grieving mother Rachel Higgins learns that his addiction may have grown out of damage suffered at the hands of a pedophile priest while he was in high school. Looking for vengeance, she targets the Catholic Church’s most visible local figure, Archbishop Francis Gillespie. When the archbishop begins receiving anonymous threats, local police dismiss them, saying they’re not credible. So he turns to his friends, Ali Reynolds and her husband, B. Simpson. With B. out of the country on a cybersecurity emergency, it’s up to Ali to track down the source of the threats. When a shooter assassinates the archbishop’s driver and leaves the priest himself severely injured, Ali forms an uneasy alliance with a Phoenix homicide cop in hopes of preventing another attack. But Ali doesn’t realize that the killer has become not only more unhinged but also more determined to take out his or her target. Credible Threat is another “terrific entry in a series distinguished by its consistent quality, [and] sensitive treatment of a difficult subject makes this an extraordinary literary experience” (The Providence Journal).

What Counts as Credible Evidence in Applied Research and Evaluation Practice?

Author : Stewart I. Donaldson
Publisher : SAGE
ISBN 13 : 1412957079
Total Pages : 289 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis What Counts as Credible Evidence in Applied Research and Evaluation Practice? by : Stewart I. Donaldson

Download or read book What Counts as Credible Evidence in Applied Research and Evaluation Practice? written by Stewart I. Donaldson and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2009 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "What Counts as Credible Evidence in Applied Research and Evaluation Practice? is the first book of its kind to define and place into greater perspective the meaning of evidence for evaluation professionals and applied researchers. Editors Stewart I. Donaldson, Christina A. Christie, and Melvin M. Mark provide observations about the diversity and changing nature of credible evidence, include lessons from their own applied research and evaluation practice, and suggest ways in which practitioners might address the key issues and challenges of collecting credible evidence." "This book is appropriate for a wide range of courses, including Introduction to Evaluation Research, Research Methods, Evaluation Practice, Program Evaluation, Program Development and Evaluation, and evaluation courses in Social Work, Education, Public Health, and Public Policy."--BOOK JACKET.

Journalists, Sources, and Credibility

Author : Bob Franklin
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136858334
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (368 download)

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Book Synopsis Journalists, Sources, and Credibility by : Bob Franklin

Download or read book Journalists, Sources, and Credibility written by Bob Franklin and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2010-12-14 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume revisits what we know about the relationship between journalists and their sources. By asking new questions, employing novel methodologies, and confronting sweeping changes to journalism and media, the contributors reinvigorate the conversation about who gets to speak through the news. It challenges established thinking about how journalists use sources, how sources influence journalists, and how these patterns relate to the power to represent the world to news audiences. Useful to both newcomers and scholars familiar with the topic, the chapters bring together leading journalism scholars from across the globe. Through a variety of methods, including surveys, interviews, content analysis, case studies and newsroom observations, the chapters shed light on attitudes and practices in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, Sweden, Belgium and Israel. Special attention is paid to the changing context of newswork. Shrinking newsgathering resources coupled with a growth in public relations activities have altered the source-journalist dynamic in recent years. At the same time, the rise of networked digital technologies has altered the barriers between journalists and news consumers, leading to unique forms of news with different approaches to sourcing. As the media world continues to change, this volume offers a timely reevaluation of news sources.

A Credible Witness

Author : Brenda Salter McNeil
Publisher : InterVarsity Press
ISBN 13 : 0830874224
Total Pages : 160 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (38 download)

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Book Synopsis A Credible Witness by : Brenda Salter McNeil

Download or read book A Credible Witness written by Brenda Salter McNeil and published by InterVarsity Press. This book was released on 2009-08-20 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Meet Jesus and Sam. Evangelist and teacher Brenda Salter McNeil thinks evangelism that only introduces people to Jesus is incomplete. The picture is much larger than that, she claims: Christ's death and resurrection reconcile us to God and to each other across gender, race and social lines. Jesus' encounter with the Samaritan woman, introduced here as Brenda's friend Sam, gives you the full picture of gospel reconciliation--reconciliation to God and to each other. In her powerful, prophetic way, Brenda expounds their interaction recorded in John 4 and shares her own story of coming to Christ and learning to relate to other Christians. A Credible Witness tells you why both types of reconciliation are necessary, and moves you to be a person whose evangelism happens through a right relationship with God and others. "In today's world," Brenda writes, "we too are called to embody more than one type of reconciliation. The good news brings us to God, and it also brings life and healing to a broken, dying and divided world. Anything less is not the gospel."

The Credibility of Transnational NGOs

Author : Peter A. Gourevitch
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107379458
Total Pages : 247 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (73 download)

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Book Synopsis The Credibility of Transnational NGOs by : Peter A. Gourevitch

Download or read book The Credibility of Transnational NGOs written by Peter A. Gourevitch and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-12 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We rely on NGOs to monitor the ethical practices of governments and for-profit firms and to undertake many humanitarian tasks that public and private actors will not do. While we are critical of public and private sector failures, we do not reflect enough on the credibility of the NGOs which take their place. Can we be sure that products NGOs label as child-labor free are in fact so, that the coffee labeled as 'fair trade' is farmed in sustainable ways, or that the working conditions monitored by NGOs are safe and that the wages are reasonable? Can we know that humanitarian organizations are, in fact, using our donations to alleviate human suffering rather than pursuing other goals? This book explores the problems of establishing the credibility of NGO activities as they monitor working conditions, human rights and elections and provide finance through microcredit institutions, development aid and emergency assistance.

The Credibility Challenge

Author : Inken von Borzyskowski
Publisher : Cornell University Press
ISBN 13 : 1501736566
Total Pages : 314 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis The Credibility Challenge by : Inken von Borzyskowski

Download or read book The Credibility Challenge written by Inken von Borzyskowski and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2019-06-15 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The key to the impact of international election support is credibility; credible elections are less likely to turn violent. So argues Inken von Borzyskowski in The Credibility Challenge, in which she provides an explanation of why and when election support can increase or reduce violence. Von Borzyskowski answers four major questions: Under what circumstances can election support influence election violence? How can election support shape the incentives of domestic actors to engage in or abstain from violence? Does support help reduce violence or increase it? And, which type of support—observation or technical assistance—is better in each instance? The Credibility Challenge pulls broad quantitative evidence and qualitative observations from Guyana, Liberia, Kenya, Sierra Leone, and Bangladesh to respond to these questions. Von Borzyskowski finds that international democracy aid matters for election credibility and violence; outside observers can exacerbate postelection violence if they cast doubt on election credibility; and technical assistance helps build electoral institutions, improves election credibility, and reduces violence. Her results advance research and policy on peacebuilding and democracy promotion in new and surprising ways.

The Credibility of Sovereignty – The Political Fiction of a Concept

Author : Elia R.G. Pusterla
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319263188
Total Pages : 329 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (192 download)

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Book Synopsis The Credibility of Sovereignty – The Political Fiction of a Concept by : Elia R.G. Pusterla

Download or read book The Credibility of Sovereignty – The Political Fiction of a Concept written by Elia R.G. Pusterla and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-19 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book deeply analyses the bilateral relations between Switzerland and the European Union and their effect on the former's sovereignty in the context of Europeanisation. This touches on philosophical debates on the complexity of sovereignty. What sovereignty is at stake when talking about Swiss-EU relations? This issue not only faces the elusiveness of sovereignty as a concept, but also the proliferation of hypocrisy on its presence within states. The book encounters the deconstructionist hypothesis stating that there is nothing to worry about but the belief there is something to worry about. Derrida’s deconstruction of sovereignty allows indeed one to grasp the fictional essence of sovereignty based on the metaphysics of presence. The presence of self-positing sovereign ipseity is fictional since absent in the present, but spectrally present in the belief of its presence to come. Sovereignty is a matter of credibility, or the credible promise of a normative statement to come. Hence, the book challenges the realist/neorealist argument stating that states are credibly sovereign until proven otherwise and explains that the debate on state sovereignty calls for the unveiling of this hypocritical epistemology cunningly disguised as an objective presence. Swiss-EU relations thus become the cornerstone to not only theorise but also test sovereignty and deconstruct the two ontological and epistemological sides of the same coin, or the modern hypocrisy of sovereignty. This deconstruction constitutes the very problématique of any attempt to understand whether and how a state can be sovereign and solve the problem as to how to neutralise the différance and identify the difference between credible and incredible claims of sovereignty. This problématique connects the theory and practice of sovereignty innovatively, providing positivist evidence on the arguable credibility of the Swiss claim of sovereignty and confirming the presence of a theological dimension within politics.

Credibility, Validity, and Assumptions in Program Evaluation Methodology

Author : Apollo M. Nkwake
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319190210
Total Pages : 166 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (191 download)

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Book Synopsis Credibility, Validity, and Assumptions in Program Evaluation Methodology by : Apollo M. Nkwake

Download or read book Credibility, Validity, and Assumptions in Program Evaluation Methodology written by Apollo M. Nkwake and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-08-10 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on assumptions underlying methods choice in program evaluation. Credible program evaluation extends beyond the accuracy of research designs to include arguments justifying the appropriateness of methods. An important part of this justification is explaining the assumptions made about the validity of methods. This book provides a framework for understanding methodological assumptions, identifying the decisions made at each stage of the evaluation process, the major forms of validity affected by those decisions, and the preconditions for and assumptions about those validities. Though the selection of appropriate research methodology is not a new topic within social development research, previous publications suggest only advantages and disadvantages of using various methods and when to use them. This book goes beyond other publications to analyze the assumptions underlying actual methodological choices in evaluation studies and how these eventually influence evaluation quality. The analysis offered is supported by a collation of assumptions collected from a case study of 34 evaluations. Due to its in-depth analysis, strong theoretical basis, and practice examples, Credibility, Validity and Assumptions is a must-have resource for researchers, students, university professors and practitioners in program evaluation. Importantly, it provides tools for the application of appropriate research methods in program evaluation

Credibility Nation

Author : Mitchell Levy
Publisher : Happy About
ISBN 13 : 1616993774
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (169 download)

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Book Synopsis Credibility Nation by : Mitchell Levy

Download or read book Credibility Nation written by Mitchell Levy and published by Happy About. This book was released on 2020-10-20 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For many years, a silent and important war has been fought between two nations. On the one side, there’s Credibility Nation which is composed of humans who go about life and their business with credibility and servant leadership. On the other side, there’s Dubious Nation which is composed of humans who live and conduct their business with self-interest as their highest priority. Dubious Nation is on a winning streak and is vanquishing Credibility Nation a thousand times over. It’s shocking to see how many people are forgetting how important it is to live and transact business in a credible way. I believe that there’s still hope. There’s still a way for Credibility Nation to win. It definitely won’t be easy, and it won’t happen in a day, but we can do it. The path toward credibility starts with seeing and acknowledging that the world has changed. We used to live in a village economy where people did business with a handshake. That was a time when people exchanged goods and services for other goods and services without using money. In that kind of economy, when a proprietor's product didn’t live up to expectations, the villagers would either self-correct or ostracize. After the village economy, we transitioned to and are now in the industrial age. Didn't we leave the industrial age and move into the Internet age. Sort of. What we've done is to primarily use technology to extend the processes, rules, and approaches to business and life that were developed in the industrial age. The industrial age is a time where power and status are everything. The higher you rise on the corporate ladder, no matter what means you took to get there, the more successful and happier you become. The industrial age is dominated by self-satisfaction and self-interest. Today, we’re slowly transitioning to the global village. It is similar to the village economy with the big difference being our reach. We can now reach and need to be aware of millions of people from around the world. The keys to success and happiness in the global village are credibility and relationships. Since technology has enabled us to connect with more people, how we live and do business can easily be seen. Thus, presenting ourselves as credibly as we can allows others to want to get to know, like, and trust us. I wrote this book with the intention of enlightening humanity about what credibility truly is, how important it is as we move forward to the future, and how we can transform ourselves into credible humans. My hope is that this book will serve as a wake-up call, a reminder, and a blueprint for those who want to join me in this movement toward credibility. Now, take a look at yourself. Are you more in alignment with Credibility Nation than Dubious Nation? Or maybe, it’s the other way around. If you feel you're more dubious than credible, that’s okay. Don’t worry. There’s always room for change and transformation. There will always be people who will lend you a helping hand and guide you toward credibility. The doors of Credibility Nation will always be open to those who are willing and ready to transform themselves into better human beings. It’s up to you to take that first step. Will you take it? We need you to be the human you know in your heart you want to be. Please join me in this epic battle against Dubious Nation. The goal in my lifetime is to tip the scale.

Fighting for Credibility

Author : Frank P. Harvey
Publisher : University of Toronto Press
ISBN 13 : 1487511760
Total Pages : 312 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (875 download)

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Book Synopsis Fighting for Credibility by : Frank P. Harvey

Download or read book Fighting for Credibility written by Frank P. Harvey and published by University of Toronto Press. This book was released on 2017-01-18 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons against his own people in Syria, he clearly crossed President Barack Obama’s "red line." At the time, many argued that the president had to bomb in order to protect America's reputation for toughness, and therefore its credibility, abroad; others countered that concerns regarding reputation were overblown, and that reputations are irrelevant for coercive diplomacy. Whether international reputations matter is the question at the heart of Fighting for Credibility. For skeptics, past actions and reputations have no bearing on an adversary’s assessment of credibility; power and interests alone determine whether a threat is believed. Using a nuanced and sophisticated theory of rational deterrence, Frank P. Harvey and John Mitton argue the opposite: ignoring reputations sidesteps important factors about how adversaries perceive threats. Focusing on cases of asymmetric US encounters with smaller powers since the end of the Cold War including Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, and Syria, Harvey and Mitton reveal that reputations matter for credibility in international politics. This dynamic and deeply documented study successfully brings reputation back to the table of foreign diplomacy.

On the credibility issue of exchange rate target zones

Author : Matthias Rau-Göhring
Publisher : diplom.de
ISBN 13 : 3832467351
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (324 download)

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Book Synopsis On the credibility issue of exchange rate target zones by : Matthias Rau-Göhring

Download or read book On the credibility issue of exchange rate target zones written by Matthias Rau-Göhring and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 2003-04-29 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inhaltsangabe:Zusammenfassung: Währungskrisen, wie die des Europäischen Währungssystems (EWS) 1992, können noch immer nur unzureichend vorausgesagt werden. Es wird jedoch anerkannt, dass die Glaubwürdigkeit eines jeden Währungssystems ausschließlich endogen bestimmt wird, d.h. durch Interaktion der einzelnen Akteure an den Wechselkursmärkten. Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht, ob ein bestimmtes Glaubwürdigkeitsmaß, eingeführt von Avesani, Gallo und Salmon (1995), geeignet ist, die große EWS Krise 1992 vorauszusagen. Dabei handelt es sich um ein dynamisches Spiel, in dem die beiden Akteure (Zentralbank und Finanzmarkt) miteinander interagieren und damit die Glaubwürdigkeit des Systems aushandeln . Es wird gezeigt, dass o.g. Glaubwürdigkeitsmaß ein geeigneter Indikator für Währungskrisen darstellt, was empirisch anhand des französischen Francs, der italienischen Lira und des niederländischen Guldens nachgewiesen wird. Introduction: The objective of the present study is to present the literature of exchange rate target zones and to explore empirically the Avesani-Gallo-Salmon credibility measure for selected currencies belonging to the Exchange-Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS). In the past decade the empirical literature on real world target zones mushroomed considerably, but still, its overall significance in explaining strains in the relevant foreign exchange markets remains relatively low. In this context, I will explore whether the Avesani-Gallo-Salmon (1995) credibility measure demonstrates more power than earlier studies in the analysis of the 1992/3 EMS crisis. It is not my intention to pursue a normative analysis whether flexible or fixed exchange rates or intermediate regimes are superior to one another in terms of their economic implications. This question is beyond the scope of my analysis.1 Given that target zones are applied frequently in the real world, I purely want to figure out, whether their application is sensible on grounds of a firm commitment of the policy-makers. Exchange rate bands have been discussed widely after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System in 1973. Although experiences with the fixed exchange rate regime were disappointing in the 1960s, increased volatility and/or overshooting of the exchange rates in the 1970s let economists doubt the famous argument by Friedman (1953) that speculation would stabilize exchange rate movements in the floating system. McKinnon (1976) reckoned that [...]