Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

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Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 1324004789
Total Pages : 407 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (24 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers by : John Kay

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers written by John Kay and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

Creating Relevance in a Time of Uncertainty

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Publisher : Black Ink Press
ISBN 13 : 9781098359638
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (596 download)

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Book Synopsis Creating Relevance in a Time of Uncertainty by : Andrea Coville

Download or read book Creating Relevance in a Time of Uncertainty written by Andrea Coville and published by Black Ink Press. This book was released on 2021-05-06 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Marketing, when you boil it all down, deals with just two things: figuring out who you want to sell to and then determining how you are going to get them to buy your product, service, or idea. In Relevance: The Power to Change Minds and Behavior and Stay Ahead of the Competition, Andrea Coville, who heads a global marketing and public relations agency, successfully showed us how to get today's busy, distracted consumers to buy. Booklist called Relevance a thought-provoking guide to success in today's noisy communications world. Here, in her follow-up work, Coville's focus is on helping you create Relevance in our current moment of uncertainty caused by the pandemic, social unrest, and ever-increasing technological change. She lays out, in step-by-step fashion, what you need to do and how to do it. And Coville also provides numerous case studies--profiling large global companies, smaller firms, nonprofits, and universities--who have created Relevance successfully. It has never been more difficult to get people to listen to what you have to say. Coville explains why you have to create deep, lasting, and mutually satisfying relationships with the people who keep you in business--and then she shows you how to do it. By the time you are done reading, you will have a series of strategies that have been proven to work when it comes to changing minds and behavior, strategies that will help you stay ahead of the competition. You will also be able to craft an effective marketing strategy that will allow your message to reach today's busy, distracted customers (a description that fits just about everyone you are trying to reach). As Richard Cote, executive director for Advancement at the Thayer School of Engineering at Dartmouth, correctly points out: Whether you work for an Ivy League college, a nonprofit organization, or a for-profit enterprise, there is one common thread and path to success: people relationships. That means understanding the needs, the hopes, the aspirations of people and making those come alive in the services and products you represent. Andy's book on Relevance nails this point crisply. You can have the best offering in the world, highly designed and expertly targeted, but without a real, relevant connection to people, it will go nowhere. Her book provides a step-by-step program on not only building relevance to your audiences or customers but sustaining and expanding it. The book, Creating Relevance in a Time of Uncertainty, provides both the diagnosis and the prescription with well-articulated cases and proven methodology. It's a must-read for leaders who seek the people-centered 'secret sauce' that differentiates your organization or enterprise and propels it forward in the midst of tough competition and global economic and pandemic headwinds.

Make to Know

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Publisher : Thames & Hudson
ISBN 13 : 0500776954
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Make to Know by : Lorne M. Buchman

Download or read book Make to Know written by Lorne M. Buchman and published by Thames & Hudson. This book was released on 2022-04-27 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Make to Know: From Spaces of Uncertainty to Creative Discovery will change the way you think about creativity. The book upends popular notions of innate artistic and visionary genius and probes instead the event of discovery that happens through the act of making. In contrast to the classic tale of Michelangelo, who 'saw the angel in the stone', the artists and designers Buchman interviews for this book talk about knowing their work as they engage in the doing. Make to Know explores the revelatory nature of the creative journey itself. As Buchman weaves together the vivid stories of his multiple conversations, we learn about writers of all stripes as they confront creative spaces of uncertainty 'the blank page'; about visual artists and what they understand from the materials they encounter; about designers and architects and the iterative process of solving problems; and about actors and musicians facing the surprises of improvisational performance. Make to Know is a book that will, ultimately, open a path to your own making, and, in the end, will have significant implications for how you live. Make to Know presents a way of thinking that democratizes creativity and uncovers a process that leads to knowing both ones work and oneself. It is relevant to anyone interested in why creativity matters.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

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Author :
Publisher : Prentice Hall
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 554 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Charles A. Holloway

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Charles A. Holloway and published by Prentice Hall. This book was released on 1979 with total page 554 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction and basic concepts; Models and probability; Choices and preferences; Preference assessment procedures; Behavioral assumptions and limitations of decision analysis; Risk sharing and incentives; Choices with multiple attributes.

Uncertainty

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Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1591845661
Total Pages : 241 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (918 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty by : Jonathan Fields

Download or read book Uncertainty written by Jonathan Fields and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jonathan Fields knows the risks-and potential power-of uncertainty. He gave up a six-figure income as a lawyer to make $12 an hour as a personal trainer. Then, married with a 3-month old baby, he signed a lease to launch a yoga center in the heart of New York City. . . the day before 9/11. But he survived, and along the way he developed a fresh approach to transforming uncertainty, risk of loss, and exposure to judgment into catalysts for innovation, creation, and achievement. In business, art, and life, creating on a world-class level demands bold action and leaps of faith in the face of great uncertainty. But that uncertainty can lead to fear, anxiety, paralysis, and destruction. It can gut creativity and stifle innovation. It can keep you from taking the risks necessary to do great work and craft a deeply-rewarding life. And it can bring companies that rely on innovation grinding to a halt. That is, unless you know how to use it to your advantage. Fields draws on leading-edge technology, cognitive science, and ancient awareness-focusing techniques in a fresh, practical, nondogmatic way. His approach enables creativity and productivity on an entirely different level and can turn the once-tortuous journey into a more enjoyable quest.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

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Author :
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262331713
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470617489
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (76 download)

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Book Synopsis Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty by : Frederick Funston

Download or read book Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty written by Frederick Funston and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-06-03 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new book to help senior executives and boards get smart about risk management The ability of businesses to survive and thrive often requires unconventional thinking and calculated risk taking. The key is to make the right decisions—even under the most risky, uncertain, and turbulent conditions. In the new book, Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty: Creating the Risk Intelligent Enterprise, authors Rick Funston and Steve Wagner suggest that effective risk taking is needed in order to innovate, stay competitive, and drive value creation. Based on their combined decades of experience as practitioners, consultants, and advisors to numerous business professionals throughout the world, Funston and Wagner discuss the adoption of 10 essential and practical skills, which will improve agility, resilience, and realize benefits: Challenging basic business assumptions can help identify "Black Swans" and provide first-mover advantage Defining the corporate risk appetite and risk tolerances can help reduce the risk of ruin. Anticipating potential causes of failure can improve chances of survival and success through improved preparedness. Factoring in velocity and momentum can improve speed of response and recovery. Verifying sources and the reliability of information can improve insights for decision making and thus decision quality. Taking a longer-term perspective can aid in identifying the potential unintended consequences of short-term decisions.

The Uncertainty Mindset

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Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231551878
Total Pages : 296 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis The Uncertainty Mindset by : Vaughn Tan

Download or read book The Uncertainty Mindset written by Vaughn Tan and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2020-07-28 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Innovation is how businesses stay ahead of the competition and adapt to market conditions that change in unpredictable and uncertain ways. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, high-end cuisine underwent a profound transformation. Once an industry that prioritized consistency and reliability, it turned into one where constant change was a competitive necessity. A top restaurant’s reputation and success have become so closely bound up with its ability to innovate that a new organizational form, the culinary research and development team, has emerged. The best of these R&D teams continually expand the frontiers of food—they invent a constant stream of new dishes, new cooking processes and methods, and even new ways of experiencing food. How do they achieve this nonstop novelty? And what can culinary research and development teach us about how organizations innovate? Vaughn Tan opens up the black box of elite culinary R&D to provide essential insights. Drawing on years of unprecedented access to the best and most influential culinary R&D teams in the world, he reveals how they exemplify what he calls the uncertainty mindset. Such a mindset intentionally incorporates uncertainty into organization design rather than simply trying to reduce risk. It changes how organizations hire, set goals, and motivate team members and leads organizations to work in highly unconventional ways. A revelatory look at the R&D kitchen, The Uncertainty Mindset upends conventional wisdom about how to organize for innovation and offers practical insights for businesses trying to become innovative and adaptable.

Thrive

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Publisher : Sound Wisdom
ISBN 13 : 1640952837
Total Pages : 222 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (49 download)

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Book Synopsis Thrive by : Meridith Elliott Powell, MBA, CSP

Download or read book Thrive written by Meridith Elliott Powell, MBA, CSP and published by Sound Wisdom. This book was released on 2021-06-22 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thrive is the roadmap of how to grow your business and drive sales in highly shifting, constantly changing economic times. It is the story of those leaders and organizations that have seen consistent growth through several economic crises-companies that were founded in the late 1700’s to early 1900’s and they are still in business thriving today. In this book we share their stories, their struggles, and tell you exactly how they have not only overcome adversity, but thrived through it. Praise for the Book: “We live in a time when uncertainty is the order of the day. THRIVE is a must-read for all who strive to grow intellectually and to succeed through the opportunities an uncertain world offers.” —Ken Langone, Founder, Home Depot, American Billionaire and Philanthropist “Talk about the right book for the right time! What I liked most about THRIVE are the case studies of real companies and real people who weathered the storms and emerged more successful than before. THRIVE is both practical and inspirational. I’ve ordered copies for my entire team.” —Bill Cates, CSP, CPAE, Founder, The Cates Academy for Relationship Marketing, Author of Radical Relevance “In THRIVE, Meridith weaves in 250 years of business history to show how resilient businesses and people find opportunities in every situation. This is a must-read to gain ideas and perspective in a sea of change.” —Mary C. Kelly, PhD, CEO, Productive Leaders, Author of The Five Minute Leadership Guide “You do not merely read this book; you read, you think, you develop next steps. Meridith does a masterful job of detailing companies doing it right and then goes further by adding her insights to create a playbook of what you need to do. Perfect book for the time we’re in right now!” —Mark Hunter, CSP, “The Sales Hunter”, Author of A Mind For Sales “The only certainty in business is there will be times of great uncertainty. It’s how you react when your world—or the world—doesn’t go as planned that determines your future. Meridith studies how companies have thrived in their uncertain times to become global market leaders and shares the proven success strategies that you can implement in your business to do the same. If there was ever a time where our world needed this book, it’s now. Read it. Study it. And thrive!” —Sam Richter, CSP, CPAE, Hall of Fame Speaker, Bestselling Author, and Technology Entrepreneur

Radical Uncertainty

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Author :
Publisher : Bridge Street Press
ISBN 13 : 9780349143996
Total Pages : 560 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (439 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Uncertainty by : Mervyn King

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty written by Mervyn King and published by Bridge Street Press. This book was released on 2021-09-02 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

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Author :
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030052524
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

The Renegade Writer

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Publisher : Marion Street Press, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 9780966517682
Total Pages : 210 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (176 download)

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Book Synopsis The Renegade Writer by : Linda Formichelli

Download or read book The Renegade Writer written by Linda Formichelli and published by Marion Street Press, Inc.. This book was released on 2003 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text teaches freelance writers how to break into previously attainable markets by eschewing the old way of doing things. It explains that freelancers can negotiate for more money and better terms, without risking their careers.

Creating Scientific Controversies

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107069610
Total Pages : 271 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Creating Scientific Controversies by : David Harker

Download or read book Creating Scientific Controversies written by David Harker and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-10 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first book-length introductory study of the concept of a created scientific controversy, providing a comprehensive and wide-ranging analysis for students of philosophy of science, environmental and health sciences, and social and natural sciences.

Creating Economy

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Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0192514482
Total Pages : 235 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (925 download)

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Book Synopsis Creating Economy by : Barbara Townley

Download or read book Creating Economy written by Barbara Townley and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-01-10 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Creativity is at the vanguard of contemporary capitalism, valorised as a form of capital in its own right. It is the centrepiece of the vaunted 'creative economy', the creative industries, and is increasingly a focus of public policy. But what is economic about creativity? How can creative labour become the basis for a distinctive global industry? And how has the solitary artist, a figment of the romantic thought, become the creative entrepreneur of twenty-first century economic imagining? This book offers a fresh approach to this topic within the creative industries through a focus on intellectual property. It follows IP and its associated rights (IPR) through the creative economy, showing how it shapes creative products and configures the economic agency of creative producers. IP helps to manage risk, settle what is valuable, extract revenues, and protect future profits. It is the central mechanism in organising the market for creative goods. Most importantly, it shows that IP/IPR is crucial in the dialectic between symbolic and economic value on which the creative industries depend; IP/IPR hold the creative industries together. This book is based on a detailed empirical study of creative producers in the UK, extending the sociological studies of markets to an analysis of the UK's creative industries. In doing so, it makes an important, empirically grounded contribution to debates around creativity, entrepreneurship, and uncertainty in creative industries, and will be of interest to scholars and policymakers alike.

Exploiting Future Uncertainty

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Author :
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1351937707
Total Pages : 221 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Exploiting Future Uncertainty by : David Hillson

Download or read book Exploiting Future Uncertainty written by David Hillson and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whatever the future holds, one thing is sure: nothing is certain except uncertainty. Prediction is always hard, especially about the future, but the biggest risk is not taking any risk at all. All businesses face significant levels of uncertainty these days. To succeed you need to exploit future uncertainty, turning it to your advantage by managing risk effectively. This book shows you how. In his role as The Risk Doctor, international risk consultant Dr David Hillson has advised many major organisations across the globe, showing them how to create value from risk. Now you can benefit from his unique approach and insights. Exploiting Future Uncertainty contains more than sixty focused briefings, each addressing a key part of the risk challenge. Using five themes, David covers the links between better business and risk-taking, basic risk concepts, making risk management work in practice, people aspects, and managing risk in the wider world. Each section is packed with clear practical advice with specific how-to tips and guidance. David Hillson is one of the most influential writers and consultants on risk and in Exploiting Future Uncertainty he offers his prescription for effective risk management in 21st Century businesses.

Uncertainty in Games

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Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262018969
Total Pages : 150 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Games by : Greg Costikyan

Download or read book Uncertainty in Games written by Greg Costikyan and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How uncertainty in games -- from Super Mario Bros. to Rock/Paper/Scissors -- engages players and shapes play experiences.

Just Start

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Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 1422143619
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (221 download)

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Book Synopsis Just Start by : Leonard A. Schlesinger

Download or read book Just Start written by Leonard A. Schlesinger and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2012 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Outlines a path to success based on creativity and problem solving despite the changing economic clmate and future uncertainty.