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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 398 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Consensus Forecasts written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030915183X
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Author : Jinping Sun
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351565117
Total Pages : 637 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (515 download)
Download or read book Government Budget Forecasting written by Jinping Sun and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-09-25 with total page 637 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Revenue and expenditure forecasting plays an important role in public budgeting and financial management, particularly during times of financial constraint, when citizens impose greater accountability upon government to use taxpayer dollars more efficiently. Despite its significance, revenue and expenditure forecasting is often overlooked in the budget process, and there is an imbalance between practice and research in this area. Based on the collaboration of budget scholars and practitioners, Government Budget Forecasting fulfills two purposes: Enhances the understanding of revenue and expenditure estimation both theoretically and practically Stimulates dialogue and debate among practitioners and academicians to identify good forecast practices as well as areas for improvement Divided into four parts, this comprehensive reference first examines forecast practices at the federal, state, and local levels, drawing on case studies that include California, Texas, and Louisiana. It then explores consensus systems and risk assessment, considering political factors and the costs of forecast errors. The text concludes with a call to transparency and guidance from a code of ethics, and a look at forecasting practices in emerging countries.
Author : Ferid Belhaj
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464819254
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)
Download or read book Towards a Learning State written by Ferid Belhaj and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2022-10-06 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The MENA region is facing important vulnerabilities, which the current crises—first the pandemic, then the war in Ukraine—have exacerbated. Prices of food and energy are higher, hurting the most vulnerable, and rising interest rates from the global tightening of monetary policy are making debt service more burdensome. Part I explores some of the resulting vulnerabilities for MENA. MENA countries are facing diverging paths for future growth. Oil Exporters have seen windfall increases in state revenues from the rise in hydrocarbon prices, while oil importers face heightened stress and risk—from higher import bills, especially for food and energy, and the depreciation of local currencies in some countries. Part II of this report argues that poor governance, and, in particular, the lack of government transparency and accountability, is at the root of the region’s development failings—including low growth, exclusion of the most disadvantaged and women, and overuse of such precious natural resources as land and water.
Author : Zidong An
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513510657
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? written by Zidong An and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-05 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus’ (1987) view that behavioral factors—the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news—play a role in the evolution of forecasts.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 254 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (555 download)
Download or read book FAA Aviation Forecasts written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : John E. Silvia
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118569547
Total Pages : 400 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (185 download)
Download or read book Economic and Business Forecasting written by John E. Silvia and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-03-10 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest. Presents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance Highlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables Explores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output Identifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems Presenting the "ten commandments" for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications.
Author : Michael Griffis
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118037626
Total Pages : 411 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (18 download)
Download or read book Economic Indicators For Dummies written by Michael Griffis and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-10-04 with total page 411 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everything you need to easily get a handle on economic indicators In today's volatile, often troubling economic landscape, there are myriad statistics and reports that paint an economic picture that can sometimes resemble a work by Jackson Pollock. These complex and often-conflicting reports could vex even the savviest investor. Economic Indicators For Dummies explains how to interpret and use key global economic indicators to make solid investments, aid in business planning, and help develop informed decisions. In plain English, it breaks down the complex language and statistics to help you make sense of this critical information. You'll discover how to interpret economic data within the context of other sometimes-conflicting reports and statistics, and use the information to make profitable decisions. You'll understand the meaning of such data as employment indices and housing and construction stats and how they affect stocks, bonds, commodities and international markets . . . and how you can use these statistics to make investment decisions as well as plan strategic goals for business growth. Economic Indicators For Dummies breaks down dozens of statistics and patterns to give you a better understanding of how various sources of data and information can be used. Breaks down jargon and statistical concepts Covers how to use publicly available economic indicators to better position your portfolio, improve returns, and make sensible, long-range business plans Discusses the reliability and timeliness of the collected data, while helping investors prioritize the flow of economic information to avoid information overload Whether you're an investor, economics student, or business professional involved in making key strategic decisions for your company, Economic Indicators For Dummies has you covered.
Author : Mr.Robert P. Flood
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 9781589060975
Total Pages : 166 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (69 download)
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 1 written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-04-18 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents details of a symposium on forecasting performance I organized under the auspices of the IMF Staff Papers. The assumption that the forecaster's goal is to do as well as possible in predicting the actual outcome is sometimes questionable. ln the context of private sector forecasts, this is because the incentives for forecasters may induce them to herd rather than to reveal their true forecasts. Public sector forecasts may also be distorted, although for different reasons. Forecasts associated with IMF programs, for example, are often the result of negotiations between the IMF staff and the country authorities and are perhaps more accurately viewed as goals, or targets, rather than pure forecasts. The standard theory of time series forecasting involves a variety of components including the choice of an information set, the choice of a cost function, and the evaluation of forecasts in terms of the average costs of the forecast errors. It is generally acknowledged that by including more relevant information in the information set, one should be able to produce better forecasts.
Author : Mr.Michael J. Artis
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451851251
Total Pages : 94 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook written by Mr.Michael J. Artis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-08-01 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the short-term forecasts for industrial and developing countries produced by the International Monetary Fund, and published twice a year in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). For the industrial country group, the WEO forecasts for output growth and inflation are satisfactory and pass most conventional tests in forecasting economic developments, although forecast accuracy has not improved over time, and predicting the turning points of the business cycle remains a weakness. For the developing countries, the task of forecasting movements in economic activity is even more difficult and the conventional measures of forecast accuracy are less satisfactory than for the industrial countries.
Author : Kevin McDonald
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0471429341
Total Pages : 546 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (714 download)
Download or read book Mastering the SAP Business Information Warehouse written by Kevin McDonald and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2002-10-02 with total page 546 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book is insightful and thought-provoking for even the most seasoned SAP BW individual." —Richard M. Dunning, Chair, American SAP Users Group Written by the leading experts in the field, this comprehensive guide shows you how to implement the SAP Business Information Warehouse (BW) and create useful applications for business analysis of company-wide data. You'll quickly learn how to design, build, analyze, and administer the data and information in the SAP BW component. The authors present the material in a way that reflects the process an organization goes through during a software implementation. They begin with an introduction to the fundamentals of data warehousing and business intelligence, helping you determine if SAP BW is right for your organization. The book then focuses on the business content and options available when trying to deliver value from the data stored in the SAP BW. And it includes a methodology for implementing the BW, such as data modeling and techniques for capturing and transforming data. With this book, you'll discover the options available in SAP BW 3.0 and explore a new way to drive business performance. It will show you how to: Tackle such challenges as eliminating poor data quality Develop an information model in order to properly deploy SAP BW Utilize ETL, data storage, information access, analysis, and presentation services Schedule, monitor, archive, and troubleshoot data loads Effectively plan and manage the performance of a data warehouse The companion Web site provides useful guides and templates for configuring your system, industry case studies, and additional updates.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 9781589060326
Total Pages : 264 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (63 download)
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, May 2001 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-09-19 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.
Author : W. Bartley Hildreth
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 9780203911839
Total Pages : 864 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (118 download)
Download or read book Case Studies in Public Budgeting and Financial Management, Revised and Expanded written by W. Bartley Hildreth and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2003-03-11 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A resource for administrators seeking innovative ideas and supporting precedents in formulating policy, this book also provides a useful textbook for public administration and policy students. It employs a wealth of case studies in budgeting and financial management to demonstrate strategies in system implementation, policy formulation, government accounting, auditing, and financial reporting. With contributions from leading experts, it clarifies procedures to solve cutback and downsizing dilemmas using theoretical models, and provides pragmatic approaches to managing financial activities under budgetary strain. It also covers the evolution of a debt management policy.
Author : Elia Xacapyr
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1315480689
Total Pages : 220 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (154 download)
Download or read book Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art written by Elia Xacapyr and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-09-16 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.
Author : Mr. Zhongxia Zhang
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513586750
Total Pages : 59 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Stock Returns and Inflation Redux: An Explanation from Monetary Policy in Advanced and Emerging Markets written by Mr. Zhongxia Zhang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-20 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classical theories of monetary economics predict that real stock returns are negatively correlated with inflation when monetary policy is countercyclical. Previous empirical studies mostly focus on a small group of developed countries or a few countries with hyperinflation. In this paper, I examine the stock return-inflation relation under different monetary policy regimes and conditions using an expanded dataset of 71 economies. Empirical evidence suggests that the stock return-inflation relation is partially driven by monetary policy. If a country’s monetary authority conducts a more countercyclical monetary policy, the stock return-inflation relation becomes more negative. In addition, the results differ by monetary policy framework. In exchange rate anchor countries, stock markets do not respond to monetary policy cyclicality. In inflation targeting countries, stock markets react more strongly to inflation. A key contribution of this paper is to classify inflation targeters by their behaviors, and illustrate that behavior matters in shaping market perceptions: markets react to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality when central banks are able to control inflation within their target bands. In this case markets are sensitive to inflation dynamics when inflation is above the announced target bands. Finally, when monetary policy is constrained by the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB), a structural break is introduced and real stock returns no longer respond to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality.
Author : James William Martin
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1420062514
Total Pages : 662 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Operational Excellence written by James William Martin and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2007-12-13 with total page 662 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To successfully compete in today‘s global marketplace, organizations can and must do more to improve their internal operational efficiencies. Operational Excellence: Using Lean Six Sigma to Translate Customer Value through Global Supply Chains consolidates hundreds of tools and methods into 110 key concepts designed to translate thevoice o
