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Conditional Tail Risk Measures For Skewed Generalised Hyperbolic Family
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Book Synopsis Generalized Hyperbolic Secant Distributions by : Matthias J. Fischer
Download or read book Generalized Hyperbolic Secant Distributions written by Matthias J. Fischer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-20 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Among the symmetrical distributions with an infinite domain, the most popular alternative to the normal variant is the logistic distribution as well as the Laplace or the double exponential distribution, which was first introduced in 1774. Occasionally, the Cauchy distribution is also used. Surprisingly, the hyperbolic secant distribution has led a charmed life, although Manoukian and Nadeau had already stated in 1988 that “... the hyperbolic-secant distribution ... has not received sufficient attention in the published literature and may be useful for students and practitioners.” During the last few years, however, several generalizations of the hyperbolic secant distribution have become popular in the context of financial return data because of its excellent fit. Nearly all of them are summarized within this Springer Brief.
Book Synopsis Backtesting Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall by : Simona Roccioletti
Download or read book Backtesting Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall written by Simona Roccioletti and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-04 with total page 155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book Simona Roccioletti reviews several valuable studies about risk measures and their properties; in particular she studies the new (and heavily discussed) property of "Elicitability" of a risk measure. More important, she investigates the issue related to the backtesting of Expected Shortfall. The main contribution of the work is the application of "Test 1" and "Test 2" developed by Acerbi and Szekely (2014) on different models and for five global market indexes.
Book Synopsis Sample Size, Skewness and Leverage Effects in Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation by : Laura García Jorcano
Download or read book Sample Size, Skewness and Leverage Effects in Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation written by Laura García Jorcano and published by Ed. Universidad de Cantabria. This book was released on 2020-02-24 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The thesis analyzes the effect that the sample size, the asymmetry in the distribution of returns and the leverage in their volatility have on the estimation and forecasting of market risk in financial assets. The goal is to compare the performance of a variety of models for the estimation and forecasting of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for a set of assets of different nature: market indexes, individual stocks, bonds, exchange rates, and commodities. The three chapters of the thesis address issues of greatest interest for the measurement of risk in financial institutions and, therefore, for the supervision of risks in the financial system. They deal with technical issues related to the implementation of the Basel Committee's guidelines on some aspects of which very little is known in the academic world and in the specialized financial sector. In the first chapter, a numerical correction is proposed on the values usually estimatedwhen there is little statistical information, either because it is a financial asset (bond, investment fund...) recently created or issued, or because the nature or the structure of the asset or portfolio have recently changed. The second chapter analyzes the relevance of different aspects of risk modeling. The third and last chapter provides a characterization of the preferable methodology to comply with Basel requirements related to the backtesting of the Expected Shortfall.
Book Synopsis Quantitative Risk Management by : Rudiger Frey
Download or read book Quantitative Risk Management written by Rudiger Frey and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Fundamentals of Heavy Tails by : Jayakrishnan Nair
Download or read book The Fundamentals of Heavy Tails written by Jayakrishnan Nair and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-06-09 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Heavy tails –extreme events or values more common than expected –emerge everywhere: the economy, natural events, and social and information networks are just a few examples. Yet after decades of progress, they are still treated as mysterious, surprising, and even controversial, primarily because the necessary mathematical models and statistical methods are not widely known. This book, for the first time, provides a rigorous introduction to heavy-tailed distributions accessible to anyone who knows elementary probability. It tackles and tames the zoo of terminology for models and properties, demystifying topics such as the generalized central limit theorem and regular variation. It tracks the natural emergence of heavy-tailed distributions from a wide variety of general processes, building intuition. And it reveals the controversy surrounding heavy tails to be the result of flawed statistics, then equips readers to identify and estimate with confidence. Over 100 exercises complete this engaging package.
Book Synopsis Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Download or read book Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by . This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naïve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.
Book Synopsis Symmetric Multivariate and Related Distributions by : Kai Wang Fang
Download or read book Symmetric Multivariate and Related Distributions written by Kai Wang Fang and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-01-18 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the publication of the by now classical Johnson and Kotz Continuous Multivariate Distributions (Wiley, 1972) there have been substantial developments in multivariate distribution theory especially in the area of non-normal symmetric multivariate distributions. The book by Fang, Kotz and Ng summarizes these developments in a manner which is accessible to a reader with only limited background (advanced real-analysis calculus, linear algebra and elementary matrix calculus). Many of the results in this field are due to Kai-Tai Fang and his associates and appeared in Chinese publications only. A thorough literature search was conducted and the book represents the latest work - as of 1988 - in this rapidly developing field of multivariate distributions. The authors are experts in statistical distribution theory.
Book Synopsis TAIL RISK HEDGING: Creating Robust Portfolios for Volatile Markets by : Vineer Bhansali
Download or read book TAIL RISK HEDGING: Creating Robust Portfolios for Volatile Markets written by Vineer Bhansali and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2013-12-27 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "TAIL RISKS" originate from the failure of mean reversion and the idealized bell curve of asset returns, which assumes that highly probable outcomes occur near the center of the curve and that unlikely occurrences, good and bad, happen rarely, if at all, at either "tail" of the curve. Ever since the global financial crisis, protecting investments against these severe tail events has become a priority for investors and money managers, but it is something Vineer Bhansali and his team at PIMCO have been doing for over a decade. In one of the first comprehensive and rigorous books ever written on tail risk hedging, he lays out a systematic approach to protecting portfolios from, and potentially benefiting from, rare yet severe market outcomes. Tail Risk Hedging is built on the author's practical experience applying macroeconomic forecasting and quantitative modeling techniques across asset markets. Using empirical data and charts, he explains the consequences of diversification failure in tail events and how to manage portfolios when this happens. He provides an easy-to-use, yet rigorous framework for protecting investment portfolios against tail risk and using tail hedging to play offense. Tail Risk Hedging explores how to: Generate profits from volatility and illiquidity during tail-risk events in equity and credit markets Buy attractively priced tail hedges that add value to a portfolio and quantify basis risk Interpret the psychology of investors in option pricing and portfolio construction Customize explicit hedges for retirement investments Hedge risk factors such as duration risk and inflation risk Managing tail risk is today's most significant development in risk management, and this thorough guide helps you access every aspect of it. With the time-tested and mathematically rigorous strategies described here, including pieces of computer code, you get access to insights to help mitigate portfolio losses in significant downturns, create explosive liquidity while unhedged participants are forced to sell, and create more aggressive yet tail-risk-focused portfolios. The book also gives you a unique, higher level view of how tail risk is related to investing in alternatives, and of derivatives such as zerocost collars and variance swaps. Volatility and tail risks are here to stay, and so should your clients' wealth when you use Tail Risk Hedging for managing portfolios. PRAISE FOR TAIL RISK HEDGING: "Managing, mitigating, and even exploiting the risk of bad times are the most important concerns in investments. Bhansali puts tail risk hedging and tail risk management under a microscope--pricing, implementation, and showing how we can fine-tune our risk exposures, which are all crucial ways in how we can better weather our bad times." -- ANDREW ANG, Ann F. Kaplan Professor of Business at Columbia University "This book is critical and accessible reading for fiduciaries, financial consultants and investors interested in both theoretical foundations and practical considerations for how to frame hedging downside risk in portfolios. It is a tremendous resource for anyone involved in asset allocation today." -- CHRISTOPHER C. GECZY, Ph.D., Academic Director, Wharton Wealth Management Initiative and Adj. Associate Professor of Finance, The Wharton School "Bhansali's book demonstrates how tail risk hedging can work, be concretely implemented, and lead to higher returns so that it is possible to have your cake and eat it too! A must read for the savvy investor." -- DIDIER SORNETTE, Professor on the Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks, ETH Zurich
Book Synopsis Intermediate Probability by : Marc S. Paolella
Download or read book Intermediate Probability written by Marc S. Paolella and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-09-27 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intermediate Probability is the natural extension of the author's Fundamental Probability. It details several highly important topics, from standard ones such as order statistics, multivariate normal, and convergence concepts, to more advanced ones which are usually not addressed at this mathematical level, or have never previously appeared in textbook form. The author adopts a computational approach throughout, allowing the reader to directly implement the methods, thus greatly enhancing the learning experience and clearly illustrating the applicability, strengths, and weaknesses of the theory. The book: Places great emphasis on the numeric computation of convolutions of random variables, via numeric integration, inversion theorems, fast Fourier transforms, saddlepoint approximations, and simulation. Provides introductory material to required mathematical topics such as complex numbers, Laplace and Fourier transforms, matrix algebra, confluent hypergeometric functions, digamma functions, and Bessel functions. Presents full derivation and numerous computational methods of the stable Paretian and the singly and doubly non-central distributions. A whole chapter is dedicated to mean-variance mixtures, NIG, GIG, generalized hyperbolic and numerous related distributions. A whole chapter is dedicated to nesting, generalizing, and asymmetric extensions of popular distributions, as have become popular in empirical finance and other applications. Provides all essential programming code in Matlab and R. The user-friendly style of writing and attention to detail means that self-study is easily possible, making the book ideal for senior undergraduate and graduate students of mathematics, statistics, econometrics, finance, insurance, and computer science, as well as researchers and professional statisticians working in these fields.
Book Synopsis Risk Management by : M. A. H. Dempster
Download or read book Risk Management written by M. A. H. Dempster and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2002-01-10 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The use of derivative products in risk management has spread from commodities, stocks and fixed income items, to such virtual commodities as energy, weather and bandwidth. All this can give rise to so-called volatility and there has been a consequent development in formal risk management techniques to cover all types of risk: market, credit, liquidity, etc. One of these techniques, Value at Risk, was developed specifically to help manage market risk over short periods. Its success led, somewhat controversially, to its take up and extension to credit risk over longer time-scales. This extension, ultimately not successful, led to the collapse of a number of institutions. The present book, which was originally published in 2002, by some of the leading figures in risk management, examines the complex issues that concern the stability of the global financial system by presenting a mix of theory and practice.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Heavy Tailed Distributions in Finance by : S.T Rachev
Download or read book Handbook of Heavy Tailed Distributions in Finance written by S.T Rachev and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2003-03-05 with total page 707 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Handbooks in Finance are intended to be a definitive source for comprehensive and accessible information in the field of finance. Each individual volume in the series should present an accurate self-contained survey of a sub-field of finance, suitable for use by finance and economics professors and lecturers, professional researchers, graduate students and as a teaching supplement. The goal is to have a broad group of outstanding volumes in various areas of finance. The Handbook of Heavy Tailed Distributions in Finance is the first handbook to be published in this series.This volume presents current research focusing on heavy tailed distributions in finance. The contributions cover methodological issues, i.e., probabilistic, statistical and econometric modelling under non- Gaussian assumptions, as well as the applications of the stable and other non -Gaussian models in finance and risk management.
Book Synopsis Handbook Of Heavy-tailed Distributions In Asset Management And Risk Management by : Michele Leonardo Bianchi
Download or read book Handbook Of Heavy-tailed Distributions In Asset Management And Risk Management written by Michele Leonardo Bianchi and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2019-03-08 with total page 598 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study of heavy-tailed distributions allows researchers to represent phenomena that occasionally exhibit very large deviations from the mean. The dynamics underlying these phenomena is an interesting theoretical subject, but the study of their statistical properties is in itself a very useful endeavor from the point of view of managing assets and controlling risk. In this book, the authors are primarily concerned with the statistical properties of heavy-tailed distributions and with the processes that exhibit jumps. A detailed overview with a Matlab implementation of heavy-tailed models applied in asset management and risk managements is presented. The book is not intended as a theoretical treatise on probability or statistics, but as a tool to understand the main concepts regarding heavy-tailed random variables and processes as applied to real-world applications in finance. Accordingly, the authors review approaches and methodologies whose realization will be useful for developing new methods for forecasting of financial variables where extreme events are not treated as anomalies, but as intrinsic parts of the economic process.
Book Synopsis Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics by : Robert A. Meyers
Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.
Book Synopsis Predictive Econometrics and Big Data by : Vladik Kreinovich
Download or read book Predictive Econometrics and Big Data written by Vladik Kreinovich and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-30 with total page 788 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents recent research on predictive econometrics and big data. Gathering edited papers presented at the 11th International Conference of the Thailand Econometric Society (TES2018), held in Chiang Mai, Thailand, on January 10-12, 2018, its main focus is on predictive techniques – which directly aim at predicting economic phenomena; and big data techniques – which enable us to handle the enormous amounts of data generated by modern computers in a reasonable time. The book also discusses the applications of more traditional statistical techniques to econometric problems. Econometrics is a branch of economics that employs mathematical (especially statistical) methods to analyze economic systems, to forecast economic and financial dynamics, and to develop strategies for achieving desirable economic performance. It is therefore important to develop data processing techniques that explicitly focus on prediction. The more data we have, the better our predictions will be. As such, these techniques are essential to our ability to process huge amounts of available data.
Book Synopsis ARCH Models and Financial Applications by : Christian Gourieroux
Download or read book ARCH Models and Financial Applications written by Christian Gourieroux and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The classical ARMA models have limitations when applied to the field of financial and monetary economics. Financial time series present nonlinear dynamic characteristics and the ARCH models offer a more adaptive framework for this type of problem. This book surveys the recent work in this area from the perspective of statistical theory, financial models, and applications and will be of interest to theorists and practitioners. From the view point of statistical theory, ARCH models may be considered as specific nonlinear time series models which allow for an exhaustive study of the underlying dynamics. It is possible to reexamine a number of classical questions such as the random walk hypothesis, prediction interval building, presence of latent variables etc., and to test the validity of the previously studied results. There are two main categories of potential applications. One is testing several economic or financial theories concerning the stocks, bonds, and currencies markets, or studying the links between the short and long run. The second is related to the interventions of the banks on the markets, such as choice of optimal portfolios, hedging portfolios, values at risk, and the size and times of block trading.
Book Synopsis Risk Measures with Applications in Finance and Economics by : Michael McAleer
Download or read book Risk Measures with Applications in Finance and Economics written by Michael McAleer and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2019-07-23 with total page 536 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk measures play a vital role in many subfields of economics and finance. It has been proposed that risk measures could be analysed in relation to the performance of variables extracted from empirical real-world data. For example, risk measures may help inform effective monetary and fiscal policies and, therefore, the further development of pricing models for financial assets such as equities, bonds, currencies, and derivative securities.A Special Issue of “Risk Measures with Applications in Finance and Economics” will be devoted to advancements in the mathematical and statistical development of risk measures with applications in finance and economics. This Special Issue will bring together the theory, practice and real-world applications of risk measures. This book is a collection of papers published in the Special Issue of “Risk Measures with Applications in Finance and Economics” for Sustainability in 2018.
Book Synopsis Applied Quantitative Finance by : Wolfgang Karl Härdle
Download or read book Applied Quantitative Finance written by Wolfgang Karl Härdle and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-08-02 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume provides practical solutions and introduces recent theoretical developments in risk management, pricing of credit derivatives, quantification of volatility and copula modeling. This third edition is devoted to modern risk analysis based on quantitative methods and textual analytics to meet the current challenges in banking and finance. It includes 14 new contributions and presents a comprehensive, state-of-the-art treatment of cutting-edge methods and topics, such as collateralized debt obligations, the high-frequency analysis of market liquidity, and realized volatility. The book is divided into three parts: Part 1 revisits important market risk issues, while Part 2 introduces novel concepts in credit risk and its management along with updated quantitative methods. The third part discusses the dynamics of risk management and includes risk analysis of energy markets and for cryptocurrencies. Digital assets, such as blockchain-based currencies, have become popular b ut are theoretically challenging when based on conventional methods. Among others, it introduces a modern text-mining method called dynamic topic modeling in detail and applies it to the message board of Bitcoins. The unique synthesis of theory and practice supported by computational tools is reflected not only in the selection of topics, but also in the fine balance of scientific contributions on practical implementation and theoretical concepts. This link between theory and practice offers theoreticians insights into considerations of applicability and, vice versa, provides practitioners convenient access to new techniques in quantitative finance. Hence the book will appeal both to researchers, including master and PhD students, and practitioners, such as financial engineers. The results presented in the book are fully reproducible and all quantlets needed for calculations are provided on an accompanying website. The Quantlet platform quantlet.de, quantlet.com, quantlet.org is an integrated QuantNet environment consisting of different types of statistics-related documents and program codes. Its goal is to promote reproducibility and offer a platform for sharing validated knowledge native to the social web. QuantNet and the corresponding Data-Driven Documents-based visualization allows readers to reproduce the tables, pictures and calculations inside this Springer book.
