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Comparison Of Measures Of Core Inflation
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Book Synopsis Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation by : Robert Rich
Download or read book Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation written by Robert Rich and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2008-04 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ability of central banks to differentiate between permanent & transitory price movements is critical for the conduct of monetary policy. The importance of gauging the persistence of price changes has led to the development of measures of underlying, or ¿core,¿ inflation that are designed to remove transitory price changes from aggregate inflation data. This article examines several proposed measures of core inflation -- the ex food & energy series, an ex energy series, a weighted median series, & an exponentially smoothed series -- to identify a ¿best¿ measure. Evaluates the measures¿ performance according to criteria such as ease of design, & accuracy in tracking trend inflation. Charts & tables.
Book Synopsis Two Measures of Core Inflation by : Jim Dolmas
Download or read book Two Measures of Core Inflation written by Jim Dolmas and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation by : Robert W. Rich
Download or read book A Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation written by Robert W. Rich and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ability of central banks to differentiate between permanent and transitory price movements is critical for the conduct of monetary policy. The importance of gauging the persistence of price changes in a timely manner has led to the development of measures of underlying, or core, inflation that are designed to remove transitory price changes from aggregate inflation data. Given the usefulness of this information to policymakers, there is a surprising lack of consensus on a preferred measure of U.S. core inflation. This article examines several proposed measures of core inflation - the popular ex food and energy series, an ex energy series, a weighted median series, and an exponentially smoothed series - to identify a best measure. The authors evaluate the measures' performance according to criteria such as ease of design and accuracy in tracking trend inflation, as well as explanatory content for within-sample and out-of-sample movements in aggregate CPI and PCE inflation. The study reveals that the candidate series perform very differently across aggregate inflation measures, criteria, and sample periods. The authors therefore find no compelling evidence to focus on one particular measure of core inflation, including the series that excludes food and energy prices. They attribute their results to the design of the individual measures and the measures' inability to account for variability in the nature and sources of transitory price movements.
Book Synopsis Measuring U.S. Core Inflation: The Stress Test of COVID-19 by : Laurence M. Ball
Download or read book Measuring U.S. Core Inflation: The Stress Test of COVID-19 written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-12-17 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Large price changes in industries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have caused erratic fluctuations in the U.S. headline inflation rate. This paper compares alternative approaches to filtering out the transitory effects of these industry price changes and measuring the underlying or core level of inflation over 2020-2021. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of core, the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices (XFE), has performed poorly: over most of 2020-21, it is almost as volatile as headline inflation. Measures of core that exclude a fixed set of additional industries, such as the Atlanta Fed’s sticky-price inflation rate, have been less volatile, but the least volatile have been measures that filter out large price changes in any industry, such as the Cleveland Fed’s median inflation rate and the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean inflation rate. These core measures have followed smooth paths, drifting down when the economy was weak in 2020 and then rising as the economy has rebounded. Overall, we find that the case for the Federal Reserve to move away from the traditional XFE measure of core has strengthened during 2020-21.
Book Synopsis Robust Measures of Core Inflation for Vietnam by : Sanjay Kalra
Download or read book Robust Measures of Core Inflation for Vietnam written by Sanjay Kalra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-02-10 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper develops robust measures of core inflation for Vietnam that can be used in policy making. These core inflation measures (CIMs) are based on an analytical evaluation of the inflation process in Vietnam, and use a filtering approach to narrow down potential measures that satisfy certain empirically desirable criteria. The paper finds that commonly used exclusion-based measures (EBMs) do not perform well against these empirical criteria; trimmed mean measures (TMMs) do better. Among TMMs, “one trim does not fit all periods”; periods of high and variable inflation require larger trims, and conversely. EVIEWS and MATLAB programs which accompany the paper allow quick, timely replication of CIMs as new data become available, making them valuable tools for the State Bank of Vietnam on an ongoing basis.
Book Synopsis Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them by : Mick Silver
Download or read book Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them written by Mick Silver and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-04 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an overview of statistical measurement issues relating to alternative measures of core inflation, and the criteria for choosing among them. The approaches to measurement considered include exclusion-based methods, imputation methods, limited influence estimators, reweighting, and economic modeling. Criteria for judging which approach to use include credibility, control, deviations from a smoothed reference series, volatility, predictive ability, causality and cointegration tests, and correlation with money supply. Country practice can differ in how the approaches are implemented and how their appropriateness is assessed. There is little consistency in the results of country studies to readily suggest guidelines on accepted methods.
Author :Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498374743 Total Pages :19 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis A Volatility and Persistence-Based Core Inflation by : Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho
Download or read book A Volatility and Persistence-Based Core Inflation written by Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intuitively core inflation is understood as a measure of inflation where noisy price movements are avoided. This is typically achieved by either excluding or downplaying the importance of the most volatile items. However, some of those items show high persistence, and one certainly does not want to disregard persistent price changes. The non-equivalence between volatility and (the lack of) persistence implies that when one excludes volatile items relevant information is likely to be discarded. Therefore, we propose a new type of core inflation measure, one that takes simultaneously into account both volatility and persistence. The evidence shows that such measures far outperform those based on either volatility or persistence. The latter have been advocated in the literature in recent years.
Book Synopsis Core Inflation Rates by : Bettina Landau
Download or read book Core Inflation Rates written by Bettina Landau and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study compares different methods of calculating the core inflation rate, the latter beingDie vorliegende Studie präsentiert einen Vergleich zwischen verschiedenen Methoden für.
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Book Synopsis Comparing Two Measures of Core Inflation by : Matteo Luciani
Download or read book Comparing Two Measures of Core Inflation written by Matteo Luciani and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The goal of this note is to provide an assessment of two of the most commonly used indicators of core inflation: the PCE price index excluding food and energy (an exclusion index), and the Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE price index (a central-tendency statistical measure).
Download or read book Core Inflation written by M.S. Silver and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides an overview of statistical measurement issues relating to alternative measures of core inflation, and the criteria for choosing between them.
Book Synopsis A Review of Core Inflation and an Evaluation of Its Measures by :
Download or read book A Review of Core Inflation and an Evaluation of Its Measures written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Alterative Measures of Inflation by : Nikos Karabalis
Download or read book Alterative Measures of Inflation written by Nikos Karabalis and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is usually measured using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is published by the National Statistical Service of Greece. Due to the fact, however, that the CPI is strongly influenced by various exogenous factors or by factors that are centrally administered, it is not always possible to get a picture of the true trend of inflation from the CPI itself. In this article, a number of indices are studied. These indices are derived indirectly from the official CPI and are considered as alternative measures of trend inflation. The indices considered are core inflation, i.e., CPI inflation excluding fresh fruits, vegetables and fuels, the CPI excluding outliers, the Weighted Median, and the Trimmed Mean. The analysis and comparison of these indices suggests that the "best" index for measuring the true trend of inflation is core inflation.
Book Synopsis Measuring Core Inflation by : Danny Quah
Download or read book Measuring Core Inflation written by Danny Quah and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many alternative measures of core, or underlying, inflation have been proposed that are based on stripping out some unwanted or excessively volatile elements from the headline rate. A potential drawback of such measures is that they are necessarily atheoretic--based largely on purely statistical procedures. This paper proposes an alternative method of measuring core inflation utilizing an explicit economic definition. It defines core inflation as that part of measured inflation that has no medium or long term impact on real output--a notion that is consistent with the vertical long-run Phillips curve. This definition captures the commonly held view that moderate movements in inflation can have no impact on the real economy once financial and wage contracts have been written taking it into account. Using this definition the paper estimates a measure of core inflation using the VAR identification technique developed by Blanchard and Quah. The estimated measure indicates that core inflation was higher than measured inflation in the early 80s suggesting that measured inflation was depressed by beneficial supply shocks. The opposite effect occurred in the late 80s. Currently, core inflation is above measured inflation.
Book Synopsis Common Persistent Factors in Inflation and Excess Nominal Money Growth and a New Measure of Core Inflation by : Claudio Morana
Download or read book Common Persistent Factors in Inflation and Excess Nominal Money Growth and a New Measure of Core Inflation written by Claudio Morana and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we introduce a new common long memory factor model. The model allows to estimate the common persistent component in fractionally cointegrated processes. We find evidence of cobreaking and fractional cointegration in excess nominal money growth and inflation in the euro area, and propose a new core inflation measure which takes into account both features. A comparison with other core inflation measures reveals that the proposed core inflation process is superior in terms of forecasting properties and economic interpretability.
Book Synopsis Measuring Core Inflation by : Danny Quah
Download or read book Measuring Core Inflation written by Danny Quah and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies by : Jongrim Ha
Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
