Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451975007
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-05-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical literature in acting as if all market participants share the same expectation. The second half then addresses the possibility of heterogeneous expectations, particularly the distinction between “chartists” and “fundamentalists,” and the implications for trading in the foreign exchange market and for the formation of speculative bubbles.

Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.X/5 (6 download)

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Book Synopsis Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy by : Jordi Galí

Download or read book Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

World Economic Outlook, April 2010

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1589069153
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2010 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2010 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-04-21 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economic recovery is progressing better than expected, but the speed of recovery varies, as outlined in the April 2010 World Economic Outlook. Some countries, notably in Asia, are off to a strong start, but growth in others is constrained by lasting damage to the financial sector and to household balance sheets. The challenge for policymakers is to ensure a smooth transition of demand, while maintaining supports that promote growth and employment. There is also a need to contain and reduce public debt and repair and reform the financial sector. This issue of the WEO also explores two other key challenges in the wake of the Great Recession: how to spur job creation in the face of likely high and persistent unemployment in advanced economies, and how countries that previously ran large current account surpluses or deficits can promote growth by rebalancing external and domestic demand.

The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 84 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level by : Willem H. Buiter

Download or read book The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level written by Willem H. Buiter and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is not common for an entire scholarly literature to be based on a fallacy, that is, 'on faulty reasoning; misleading or unsound argument'. The 'fiscal theory of the price level', recently re-developed by Woodford, Cochrane, Sims and others, is an example of a fatally flawed research programme. The source of the fallacy is an economic misspecification. The proponents of the fiscal theory of the price level do not accept the fundamental proposition that the government's intertemporal budget constraint is a constraint on the government's instruments that must be satisfied for all admissible values of the economy-wide endogenous variables. Instead they require it to be satisfied only in equilibrium. This economic misspecification has implications for the mathematical or logical properties of the equilibria supported by models purporting to demonstrate the properties of the fiscal approach. These include: overdetermined (internally inconsistent) equilibria; anomalies like the apparent ability to price things that do not exist; the need for arbitrary restrictions on the exogenous and predetermined variables in the government's budget constraint; and anomalous behaviour of the equilibrium' price sequences, including behaviour that will ultimately violate physical resource constraints. The issue is of more than academic interest. Policy conclusions could be drawn from the fiscal theory of the price level that would be harmful if they influenced the actual behaviour of the fiscal and monetary authorities. The fiscal theory of the price level implies that a government could exogenously fix its real spending, revenue and seigniorage plans, and that the general price level would adjust the real value of its contractual nominal debt obligations so as to ensure government solvency. When reality dawns, the result could be painful fiscal tightening, government default, or unplanned recourse to the inflation tax.

Pay Without Performance

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Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780674020634
Total Pages : 308 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (26 download)

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Book Synopsis Pay Without Performance by : Lucian A. Bebchuk

Download or read book Pay Without Performance written by Lucian A. Bebchuk and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The company is under-performing, its share price is trailing, and the CEO gets...a multi-million-dollar raise. This story is familiar, for good reason: as this book clearly demonstrates, structural flaws in corporate governance have produced widespread distortions in executive pay. Pay without Performance presents a disconcerting portrait of managers' influence over their own pay--and of a governance system that must fundamentally change if firms are to be managed in the interest of shareholders. Lucian Bebchuk and Jesse Fried demonstrate that corporate boards have persistently failed to negotiate at arm's length with the executives they are meant to oversee. They give a richly detailed account of how pay practices--from option plans to retirement benefits--have decoupled compensation from performance and have camouflaged both the amount and performance-insensitivity of pay. Executives' unwonted influence over their compensation has hurt shareholders by increasing pay levels and, even more importantly, by leading to practices that dilute and distort managers' incentives. This book identifies basic problems with our current reliance on boards as guardians of shareholder interests. And the solution, the authors argue, is not merely to make these boards more independent of executives as recent reforms attempt to do. Rather, boards should also be made more dependent on shareholders by eliminating the arrangements that entrench directors and insulate them from their shareholders. A powerful critique of executive compensation and corporate governance, Pay without Performance points the way to restoring corporate integrity and improving corporate performance.

Financial Development and Growth in the Short- and Long-Run

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Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Development and Growth in the Short- and Long-Run by :

Download or read book Financial Development and Growth in the Short- and Long-Run written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Trade credit, financial intermediary development, and industry growth

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Author :
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Trade credit, financial intermediary development, and industry growth by : Raymond Fisman

Download or read book Trade credit, financial intermediary development, and industry growth written by Raymond Fisman and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2001 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Where do firms turn for financing in countries with poorly developed financial markets? One source is trade credit. And where formal financial intermediaries are deficient, industries that rely more on this source of financing grow faster.

Hubs and Spokes, and Free Trade in the Americas

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Publisher : London, Ont. : Department of Economics, University of Western Ontario
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Hubs and Spokes, and Free Trade in the Americas by : Carsten Kowalczyk

Download or read book Hubs and Spokes, and Free Trade in the Americas written by Carsten Kowalczyk and published by London, Ont. : Department of Economics, University of Western Ontario. This book was released on 1992 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper compares two possible formats for free trade in the Americas: a system of spokes surrounding a U.S. hub, and a free trade area. The paper identifies the sources of welfare change, and it argues that a country's attitude towards a system depends on whether the arrangement is a complement or a substitute trading club. The paper argues also that rent-seeking activities, and costs of administration and transportation, are likely to be higher in a hub-and-spoke system than in a free trade area.

Tobin's Q and Asset Returns

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Publisher : London, Ont. : Department of Economics, University of Western Ontario
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 80 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Tobin's Q and Asset Returns by : Lawrence J. Christiano

Download or read book Tobin's Q and Asset Returns written by Lawrence J. Christiano and published by London, Ont. : Department of Economics, University of Western Ontario. This book was released on 1995 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The marginal cost of plant capacity, measured by the price of equity is significantly procyclical. Yet, the price of a major intermediate input into expanding plant capacity, investment goods, is coutercyclical. The ratio of these prices is Tobin's q. We interpret the fact that Tobin's q differs from unity at all reflects that there are diminishing returns to expanding plant capacity by installing investment goods (`adjustment costs'). Also, its numerator and denominator have such different cyclical properties. We find the sign switch in their covariation with output reflects interaction of our adjustment cost specification with the operation of two shocks: one which affects the demand for equity and another which shifts the technology for producing investment goods. The adjustment costs cause the two prices to respond differently to these two shocks which is why it is possible to choose the shock variances to reproduce the sign switch. These model features are incorporated into a modified version of a model analyzed in Boldrin, Christiano and Fisher (1995) which contains assumptions designed to account for the observed mean return on risk free and risky assets. We find various modifications not only account for the sign switch but also continue to account for the salient features of mean asset returns. We turn to business cycle implications of our model. The model does as well as standard models with respect to conventional business cycle measures of volatility and comovement with output, and on one dimension the model significantly dominates standard models. The factors that help it account for prices and rates of return on assets also help it account for the fact that employment across a broad range of sectors moves together over the cycle.