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Author : Boum-Jong Choe
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)
Download or read book Commodity Price Forecasts and Futures Prices written by Boum-Jong Choe and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1990 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Boum-Jong Choe
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Commodity Price Forecasts written by Boum-Jong Choe and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr.David A Reichsfeld
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1463923899
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (639 download)
Download or read book Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices? written by Mr.David A Reichsfeld and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-11-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We assess the spot price forecasting performance of 10 commodity futures at various horizons up to two years and test whether this performance is affected by market conditions. We reject efficient markets based on in-sample tests but, out-of-sample, we find that the forecast from the futures market is hard to beat. We find that the forecasting performance of futures does not depend on the slope of the futures curve, in contrast to the predictions of well-known models of commodity markets. We also find futures' forecasting performance to be invariant to whether prices are in an upswing or downswing, casting doubt on aspersions that uninformed investors participating during bull markets impede the price discovery process.
Author : Walter C. Labys
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 360 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (97 download)
Download or read book Speculation, Hedging, and Commodity Price Forecasts written by Walter C. Labys and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Boum Jong Choe
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Commodity Price Forecasts written by Boum Jong Choe and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasts for the primary commodity market by the Bank's International Commodity Markets Division - with significant but not excessive adaptation to spot- price movements - probably are reasonable, optimal short- term forecasts, superior to "naive" forecasts or futures prices.
Author : Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451951116
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Futures Prices written by Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-10-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper undertakes an investigation into the efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices. Efficiency of the market is analysed in terms of the expected excess returns to speculation in the futures market. Accuracy of futures prices is compared with that of forecasts using alternative techniques, including time series and econometric models, as well as judgemental forecasts. The paper also explores the predictive power of futures prices by comparing the forecasting accuracy of end-of-month prices with weekly and monthly averages, using a variety of different weighting schemes. Finally, the paper investigates whether the forecasts from using futures prices can be improved by incorporating information from other forecasting techniques.
Author : Chakriya Bowman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Commodity Prices written by Chakriya Bowman and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the performance of three types of commodity price forecasts--those based on judgment, those relying exclusively on historical price data, and those incorporating prices implied by commodity futures. For most of the 15 commodities in the sample, spot and futures prices appear to be nonstationary and to form a cointegrating relation. Spot prices tend to move toward futures prices over the long run, and error-correction models exploiting this feature produce more accurate forecasts. The analysis indicates that on the basis of statistical- and directional-accuracy measures, futures-based models yield better forecasts than historical-data-based models or judgment, especially at longer horizons.
Author : Chakriya Bowman
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781451846133
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (461 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Commodity Prices written by Chakriya Bowman and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2004-03-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the performance of three types of commodity price forecasts—those based on judgment, those relying exclusively on historical price data, and those incorporating prices implied by commodity futures. For most of the 15 commodities in the sample, spot and futures prices appear to be nonstationary and to form a cointegrating relation. Spot prices tend to move toward futures prices over the long run, and error-correction models exploiting this feature produce more accurate forecasts. The analysis indicates that on the basis of statistical- and directional-accuracy measures, futures-based models yield better forecasts than historical-data-based models or judgment, especially at longer horizons.
Author : Harry Jiler
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (243 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Commodity Prices written by Harry Jiler and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides background to help forecasting price movements in twenty different commodity future markets and studies the price forecasting with the aid of charts.
Author : Commodity Research Bureau (U.S.)
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 284 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Guide to Commodity Price Forecasting written by Commodity Research Bureau (U.S.) and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Takatoshi Ito
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226386899
Total Pages : 346 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Author : M. A. H. Dempster
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1498712339
Total Pages : 725 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (987 download)
Download or read book Commodities written by M. A. H. Dempster and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-11-05 with total page 725 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since a major source of income for many countries comes from exporting commodities, price discovery and information transmission between commodity futures markets are key issues for continued economic development.This book covers the fundamental theory of and derivatives pricing for major commodity markets as well as the interaction between commodi
Author : Walter C. Labys
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351917080
Total Pages : 247 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (519 download)
Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices written by Walter C. Labys and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.
Author : Gonzalo Cortazar
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (967 download)
Download or read book Commodity Price Forecasts, Futures Prices and Pricing Models written by Gonzalo Cortazar and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Even though commodity pricing models have been successful in fitting the term structure of futures prices and its dynamics, they do not generate accurate true distributions of spot prices. This paper develops a new approach to calibrate these models using not only observations of oil futures prices, but also analysts' forecasts of oil spot prices. We conclude that to obtain reasonable expected spot curves, analysts' forecasts should be used, either alone, or jointly with futures data. The use of both futures and forecasts, instead of using only forecasts, generates expected spot curves that do not differ considerably in the short/medium term, but long term estimations are significantly different. The inclusion of analysts' forecasts, in addition to futures, instead of only futures prices, does not alter significantly the short/medium part of the futures curve, but does have a significant effect on long-term futures estimations.
Author : Isabelle Piot-Lepetit
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1441976345
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (419 download)
Download or read book Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility written by Isabelle Piot-Lepetit and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-06-10 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Global Commodity Markets written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 178 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (17 download)
Download or read book Farm Commodity Market Performance and Economic Forecasts written by United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
