Commodity Price Effects On Currencies

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Commodity Price Effects on Currencies

Author : Yin-Wong Cheung
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (134 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Effects on Currencies by : Yin-Wong Cheung

Download or read book Commodity Price Effects on Currencies written by Yin-Wong Cheung and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using quarterly data on four commodity exporting countries, we study the explanatory power of real commodity prices for predicting real effective exchange rates, with special attention to the separate roles of different sectoral commodity prices during alternative time periods. We find that the commodity price effect is non-uniform across countries and commodity sectors, and moreover varies over time. The use of fixed weight price indexes, or nominal exchange rates and commodity prices, also yields heterogeneous commodity price effects. Further, the pattern of commodity price effects is influenced by the presence of macroeconomic conditions, the effects of crises, and the exchange rates of top trading partners. These empirical results highlight the challenges of explaining a wide range of currency behaviors across different time periods with a single commodity-price-based exchange rate model. These findings also complicate the tasks facing policymakers who assume stable commodity price effects.

Currencies, Commodities and Consumption

Author : Kenneth W. Clements
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 110701476X
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Currencies, Commodities and Consumption by : Kenneth W. Clements

Commodity Prices and Markets

Author : Takatoshi Ito
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226386899
Total Pages : 346 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito

Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.

Currencies, Commodities and Consumption

Author : Kenneth W. Clements
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139619616
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (396 download)

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Book Synopsis Currencies, Commodities and Consumption by : Kenneth W. Clements

Download or read book Currencies, Commodities and Consumption written by Kenneth W. Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-31 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Currency values, prices, consumption and incomes are at the heart of the economic performance of all countries. In order to make a meaningful comparison between one economy and another, economists routinely make use of purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates, but while PPP rates are widely used and well understood, they take a lot of effort to produce and suffer from publication delays. Currencies, Commodities and Consumption analyses the strengths and weaknesses of two alternatives to PPP. Firstly, the so-called Big Mac Index, which uses hamburger prices as a standard of measurement, and second, a less well known technique which infers incomes across countries based on the proportion of consumption devoted to food. Kenneth W. Clements uses international macroeconomics, microeconomic theory and econometrics to provide researchers and policy makers with insights into alternatives to PPP rates and make sense of the ongoing instability of exchange rates and commodity prices.

Commodity Currencies and Monetary Policy

Author : Michael B. Devereux
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 22 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (15 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Currencies and Monetary Policy by : Michael B. Devereux

Download or read book Commodity Currencies and Monetary Policy written by Michael B. Devereux and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Countries that specialize in commodity exports often exhibit a correlation between the relevant commodity price and the value of their currency. We explore a natural but little-studied explanation for this correlation. An increase in the commodity price leads to increases in the future values of the international differential in policy interest rates. The tightening of expected future monetary policy relative to the US then leads to an immediate appreciation. We show theoretically that this correlation depends on the stance of monetary policy. We then derive a statistical model that embodies this mechanism and test the over-identifying restrictions for Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. For all three countries, controlling for the effect of commodity prices in predicting current and future monetary policy leaves them no significant, remaining role in statistically explaining exchange rates.

Commodity Prices and Markets

Author : Takatoshi Ito
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226386902
Total Pages : 346 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito

Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-02-15 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects, such as inflation and low rates of economic growth. Commodity Prices and Markets advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim. The volume addresses three distinct subjects: the difficulties in forecasting commodity prices, the effects of exogenous commodity price shocks on the domestic economy, and the relationship between price shocks and monetary policy. The ability to forecast commodity prices is difficult but of great importance to businesses and governments, and this volume will be invaluable to professionals and policy makers interested in the field.

The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks

Author : Mikidadu Mohammed
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000485129
Total Pages : 215 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks by : Mikidadu Mohammed

Download or read book The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks written by Mikidadu Mohammed and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-11-25 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The behaviour of commodity prices never ceases to marvel economists, financial analysts, industry experts, and policymakers. Unexpected swings in commodity prices used to occur infrequently but have now become a permanent feature of global commodity markets. This book is about modelling commodity price shocks. It is intended to provide insights into the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical modelling of the underlying causes of global commodity price shocks. Three main objectives motivated the writing of this book. First, to provide a variety of modelling frameworks for documenting the frequency and intensity of commodity price shocks. Second, to evaluate existing approaches used for forecasting large movements in future commodity prices. Third, to cover a wide range and aspects of global commodities including currencies, rare–hard–lustrous transition metals, agricultural commodities, energy, and health pandemics. Some attempts have already been made towards modelling commodity price shocks. However, most tend to narrowly focus on a subset of commodity markets, i.e., agricultural commodities market and/or the energy market. In this book, the author moves the needle forward by operationalizing different models, which allow researchers to identify the underlying causes and effects of commodity price shocks. Readers also learn about different commodity price forecasting models. The author presents the topics to readers assuming less prior or specialist knowledge. Thus, the book is accessible to industry analysts, researchers, undergraduate and graduate students in economics and financial economics, academic and professional economists, investors, and financial professionals working in different sectors of the commodity markets. Another advantage of the book’s approach is that readers are not only exposed to several innovative modelling techniques to add to their modelling toolbox but are also exposed to diverse empirical applications of the techniques presented.

Commodity Shocks and Exchange Rate Regimes: Implications for the Caribbean Commodity Exporters

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513582593
Total Pages : 53 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Shocks and Exchange Rate Regimes: Implications for the Caribbean Commodity Exporters by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Commodity Shocks and Exchange Rate Regimes: Implications for the Caribbean Commodity Exporters written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-23 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Declining commodity prices during mid-2014-2016 posed significant challenges to commodity-exporting economies. The severe terms of trade shock associated with a sharp fall in world commodity prices have raised anew questions about the viability of pegged exchange rate regimes. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures needed to contain its spread have been associated with a significant disruption in several economic sectors, in particular, travel, tourism, and hospitality industry, adding to the downward pressure on commodity prices, a sharp fall in foreign exchange earnings, and depressed economic activity in most commodity exporters. This paper reviews country experiences with different exchange rate regimes in coping with commodity price shocks and explores the role of flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber, analyzing the macroeconomic impact of adverse term-of-trade shocks under different regimes using event study and panel vector autoregression techniques. It also analyzes, conceptually and empirically, policy and technical considerations in making exchange rate regime choices and discusses the supporting policies that should accompany a given regime choice to make that choice sustainable. It offers lessons that could be helpful to the Caribbean commodity-exporters.

Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility

Author : Mr.Tidiane Kinda
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484398939
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility by : Mr.Tidiane Kinda

Download or read book Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility written by Mr.Tidiane Kinda and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-02-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the impact of commodity price shocks on financial sector fragility. Using a large sample of 71 commodity exporters among emerging and developing economies, it shows that negative shocks to commodity prices tend to weaken the financial sector, with larger shocks having more pronounced impacts. More specifically, negative commodity price shocks are associated with higher non-performing loans, bank costs and banking crises, while they reduce bank profits, liquidity, and provisions to nonperforming loans. These adverse effects tend to occur in countries with poor quality of governance, weak fiscal space, as well as those that do not have a sovereign wealth fund, do not implement macro-prudential policies and do not have a diversified export base. These findings are robust to a battery of robustness checks.

Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles

Author : Mr.Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781451844535
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (445 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles by : Mr.Kenneth Rogoff

Download or read book Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles written by Mr.Kenneth Rogoff and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2002-02-01 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper re-examines empirical exchange rate puzzles by focusing on three OECD economies (Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) where primary commodities constitute a significant share of their exports. For Australia and New Zealand especially, we find that the U.S. dollar price of their commodity exports (generally exogenous to these small economies) —has a strong and stable influence on their floating real rates, with the quantitative magnitude of the effects consistent with predictions of standard theoretical models. However, after controlling for commodity price shocks, there is still a PPP puzzle in the residual. Nevertheless, the results here are relevant to many developing country commodity exporters, as they liberalize their capital markets and move towards floating exchange rates.

Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises

Author : Mr.Markus Eberhardt
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484366778
Total Pages : 53 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises by : Mr.Markus Eberhardt

Download or read book Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises written by Mr.Markus Eberhardt and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.

Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes

Author : Mr.Nicola Spatafora
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475558872
Total Pages : 75 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes by : Mr.Nicola Spatafora

Download or read book Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes written by Mr.Nicola Spatafora and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-05-01 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The experience of developing countries over 1990-2010 indicates that commodity prices have a significant impact on fiscal outcomes. Both revenue and expenditure rise in response to commodity (import or export) price increases; the response of the fiscal deficit is ambiguous. A floating exchange rate regime only partially offsets the impact; foreign-exchange reserves do not dampen the effects. Hence, there is a strong case for fiscal hedging against commodity price shocks. Hedging instruments based on a limited set of benchmark world prices for a narrow set of commodities may suffice to realize most of the potential benefits.

World Commodities and World Currency

Author : Benjamin Graham
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 210 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (1 download)

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Book Synopsis World Commodities and World Currency by : Benjamin Graham

Download or read book World Commodities and World Currency written by Benjamin Graham and published by . This book was released on 1944 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: World Commodities and World Currency presents Graham's thoughts on the importance and growth of world commodity stabilization; its impact on world currency; the declining power of cartels; and his unique theory on stock-piling, which encouraged expansion and stability in a postwar economy.

Asset Prices and Monetary Policy

Author : John Y. Campbell
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226092127
Total Pages : 444 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (26 download)

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Book Synopsis Asset Prices and Monetary Policy by : John Y. Campbell

Download or read book Asset Prices and Monetary Policy written by John Y. Campbell and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-11-15 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.

Commodity Currencies

Author : Tsenguunjav Byambasuren
Publisher : LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9783659429668
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (296 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Currencies by : Tsenguunjav Byambasuren

Download or read book Commodity Currencies written by Tsenguunjav Byambasuren and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2013 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Mongolia, the mining sector has been upgraded and developed very sharply last few years and some international experts stated that this growth will be hold up related to the strategic deposits such as Oyu Tolgoi and Tavan Tolgoi. It shows that Mongolia is becoming more dependent from foreign economy. So, this work tries to examine whether the real exchange rate and the real price of commodity exports move together over time in case of Mongolia. In this work, we used the Engle and Granger (1987) co-integration approach to assess the long-run relationship between these two variables and the empirical results suggest that an increase in price of Mongolian commodity exports appreciates the domestic real exchange rate. Also, the average half-life of adjustment of real exchange rates to commodity price is found to be about six months. The analysis should be especially useful to researchers and policy makers of resource-rich developing countries.

Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475505167
Total Pages : 19 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility by : Mr.Rabah Arezki

Download or read book Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the relationship between South African Rand and gold price volatility using monthly data for the period 1980-2010. Our main findings is that prior to capital account liberalization the causality runs from South African Rand to gold price volatility but the causality runs the other way around for the post-liberalization period. These findings suggest that gold price volatility plays a key role in explaining both the excessive exchange rate volatility and current disproportionate share of speculative (short-run) inflows that South Africa has been coping with since the opening up of its capital account.

Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices

Author : Dominique Yves Dupont
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 72 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices by : Dominique Yves Dupont

Download or read book Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices written by Dominique Yves Dupont and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-04 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the relations between fluctuations in real exchange rates among the major currencies and fluctuations in real commodity prices. Increased exchange rate volatility calls for a better understanding of these relations. To the best of our knowledge, no systematic study of those effects has been performed on a wide range of commodities, although Sjaastad and Scacciavillani (1993) have done so for gold. We build on their approach and construct a supply and demand multi-country model, with world market clearing, which incorporates speculative and non-speculative demands for inventories and “static” and “rational” expectations. We estimate the model using several econometric methods on monthly data from January 1972 to January 1992 for 65 commodity prices. The paper finds that, for a small group of commodities, the dollar-denominated price is significantly influenced by the deutsche mark and the yen. The empirical results show that geographical proximity matters, and that supply and demand elasticities are important in determining the commodity price in world markets above and beyond the size of the share of those commodities in world trade.