The Economics And Finance Of Commodity Price Shocks

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The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks

Author : Mikidadu Mohammed
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000485188
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks by : Mikidadu Mohammed

Download or read book The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks written by Mikidadu Mohammed and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-11-25 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The behaviour of commodity prices never ceases to marvel economists, financial analysts, industry experts, and policymakers. Unexpected swings in commodity prices used to occur infrequently but have now become a permanent feature of global commodity markets. This book is about modelling commodity price shocks. It is intended to provide insights into the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical modelling of the underlying causes of global commodity price shocks. Three main objectives motivated the writing of this book. First, to provide a variety of modelling frameworks for documenting the frequency and intensity of commodity price shocks. Second, to evaluate existing approaches used for forecasting large movements in future commodity prices. Third, to cover a wide range and aspects of global commodities including currencies, rare–hard–lustrous transition metals, agricultural commodities, energy, and health pandemics. Some attempts have already been made towards modelling commodity price shocks. However, most tend to narrowly focus on a subset of commodity markets, i.e., agricultural commodities market and/or the energy market. In this book, the author moves the needle forward by operationalizing different models, which allow researchers to identify the underlying causes and effects of commodity price shocks. Readers also learn about different commodity price forecasting models. The author presents the topics to readers assuming less prior or specialist knowledge. Thus, the book is accessible to industry analysts, researchers, undergraduate and graduate students in economics and financial economics, academic and professional economists, investors, and financial professionals working in different sectors of the commodity markets. Another advantage of the book’s approach is that readers are not only exposed to several innovative modelling techniques to add to their modelling toolbox but are also exposed to diverse empirical applications of the techniques presented.

Commodity Prices and Markets

Author : Takatoshi Ito
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226386899
Total Pages : 346 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito

Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.

Commodity Prices and Markets

Author : Takatoshi Ito
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226386902
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito

Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-02-15 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects, such as inflation and low rates of economic growth. Commodity Prices and Markets advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim. The volume addresses three distinct subjects: the difficulties in forecasting commodity prices, the effects of exogenous commodity price shocks on the domestic economy, and the relationship between price shocks and monetary policy. The ability to forecast commodity prices is difficult but of great importance to businesses and governments, and this volume will be invaluable to professionals and policy makers interested in the field.

Commodity Price Dynamics

Author : Craig Pirrong
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139501976
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (395 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Dynamics by : Craig Pirrong

Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks

Author : Ms.Stefania Fabrizio
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475596944
Total Pages : 86 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks by : Ms.Stefania Fabrizio

Download or read book Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks written by Ms.Stefania Fabrizio and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-20 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.

The influence of commodity price shocks on share prices

Author : Philipp Heilmann
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
ISBN 13 : 3656153574
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (561 download)

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Book Synopsis The influence of commodity price shocks on share prices by : Philipp Heilmann

Download or read book The influence of commodity price shocks on share prices written by Philipp Heilmann and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2012-03-15 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2011 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1,3, University of Groningen (Faculty of Economics and Business), language: English, abstract: This paper analyses the influence of commodity price shocks on companies’ firm value. Two timeframes of shocks on the commodities copper, aluminium as well as two rare earth elements, neodymium and lanthanum, were studied on their effects on stock prices. Companies have been selected according to their industry, their size, country of origin and commodity exposure. Unique issues in this work are the focus on commodity price shocks and the pre- selection of companies, where the chosen commodities are assumingly key input factors. Therefore this paper attempts to shed new light on the importance of commodity price exposure for the firm value of companies.

Branching Networks and Geographic Contagion of Commodity Price Shocks

Author : Teng Wang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (122 download)

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Book Synopsis Branching Networks and Geographic Contagion of Commodity Price Shocks by : Teng Wang

Download or read book Branching Networks and Geographic Contagion of Commodity Price Shocks written by Teng Wang and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises

Author : Mr.Markus Eberhardt
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484367820
Total Pages : 53 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises by : Mr.Markus Eberhardt

Download or read book Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises written by Mr.Markus Eberhardt and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.

International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451963424
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt by : Mr.Rabah Arezki

Download or read book International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-03-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the effects that international commodity price shocks have on external debt using panel data for a world sample of 93 countries spanning the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that positive commodity price shocks lead to a significant reduction in the level of external debt in democracies, but to no significant reduction in the level of external debt in autocracies. To explain this result, we show that positive commodity price shocks lead to a statistically significant and quantitatively large increase in total government expenditures in autocracies. In democracies on the other hand government expenditures did not increase significantly. We also document that following positive windfalls from international commodity price shocks the risk of default on external debt decreased in democracies, but increased significantly in autocracies.

Asymmetric Non-Commodity Output Responses to Commodity Price Shocks

Author : Mr. Amine Mati
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513573357
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Asymmetric Non-Commodity Output Responses to Commodity Price Shocks by : Mr. Amine Mati

Download or read book Asymmetric Non-Commodity Output Responses to Commodity Price Shocks written by Mr. Amine Mati and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-06-11 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on identifying potential asymmetric responses of non-commodity output growth in times of positive and negative commodity terms-of-trade shocks. Using a sample of 27 oil-exporting countries and a panel VAR method, the study finds: 1) the short-and medium-run response of real non-commodity GDP growth is larger for negative shocks than positive shocks; 2) this asymmetry is more pronounced in countries with weak pre-existing fundamentals–high levels of public debt and low levels of international reserves–which also serve to amplify the volatility of the response; 3) the output response to positive shocks is stronger following a sustained period of CTOT increases, while the impact of negative shocks on output are more damaging when they occur after a period of CTOT decline.

Commodity Price Cycles

Author : Gustavo Adler
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1463926642
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (639 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Cycles by : Gustavo Adler

Download or read book Commodity Price Cycles written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-12-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity-exporting countries have significantly benefited from the commodity price boom of recent years. At the current juncture, however, uncertain global economic prospects have raised questions about their vulnerability to a sharp fall in commodity prices and the policies that can shield it from such a shock. To address these questions, this paper takes a long term (4 decade) view at emerging markets' commodity dependence, the history of commodity price busts and the role of policies in mitigating or amplifying their economic impact. The paper highlights the stark difference in trends between Latin America - one of the most vulnerable regions given its high, and rising, commodity dependence - and emerging Asia - which has evolved from being a net exporter to a net importer of commodities in the last 40 years. We find evidence, however, that while commodity dependence is an important ingredient, a country's ultimate degree of vulnerability to commodity price shocks is to a great extent determined by the flexibility and quality of its policy framework. Policies in the run-up of sharp terms-of-trade drops - especially when those are preceded by booms - play a particularly important role. Limited exchange rate flexibility, a weak external position, and loose fiscal policy tend to amplify the negative effects of these shocks on domestic output. Financial dollarization also appears to act as a shock "amplifier."

The Economics of Food Price Volatility

Author : Jean-Paul Chavas
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022612892X
Total Pages : 394 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (261 download)

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Book Synopsis The Economics of Food Price Volatility by : Jean-Paul Chavas

Download or read book The Economics of Food Price Volatility written by Jean-Paul Chavas and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2014-10-14 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The conference was organized by the three editors of this book and took place on August 15-16, 2012 in Seattle."--Preface.

Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616353791
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (163 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries by : Mr.Rabah Arezki

Download or read book Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-24 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.

Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy

Author : Matthias Kalkuhl
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319282018
Total Pages : 626 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (192 download)

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Book Synopsis Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy by : Matthias Kalkuhl

Download or read book Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 626 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?

Author : Mr.Paul Cashin
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 145185028X
Total Pages : 55 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices? by : Mr.Paul Cashin

Download or read book How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices? written by Mr.Paul Cashin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-06-01 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the persistence of shocks to world commodity prices, using monthly IMF data on primary commodities between 1957–98. We find that shocks to commodity prices are typically long–lasting and the variability of the persistence of price shocks is quite wide. The paper also discusses the implications of these findings for national and international schemes to stabilize earnings from commodity exports and finds that if price shocks are long–lived, then the cost of stabilization schemes will likely exceed any associated smoothing benefits.

International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries

Author : Isha Agrawal
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484333047
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries by : Isha Agrawal

Download or read book International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries written by Isha Agrawal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-14 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 developing countries to analyze the transmission of changes in international commodity prices to domestic bank lending. Identification relies on a bankspecific time-varying measure of bank sensitivity to changes in commodity prices, based on daily data on bank stock prices. We find that a fall in commodity prices reduces bank lending, although this effect is confined to low-income countries and driven by commodity price busts. Banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit commodity price changes to lending more aggressively, supporting the hypothesis that the overall credit response to commodity prices works also through the credit supply channel. Our results also show that there is no significant difference in the behavior of foreign and domestic banks in the transmission process, reflecting the regional footprint of foreign banks in developing countries.

Commodity Prices

Author : Mr.Peter Wickham
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451842376
Total Pages : 58 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Prices by : Mr.Peter Wickham

Download or read book Commodity Prices written by Mr.Peter Wickham and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Primary commodities still account for the bulk of exports in many developing countries. However, real commodity prices have been declining almost continuously since the early 1980s and there is evidence of renewed weakness. The appropriate policy response to a terms of trade shock depends importantly on whether the shock is perceived to be temporary or permanent. Our results indicate that the recent weakness in commodity prices is mostly of a secular nature, stressing the need for commodity exporting countries to concentrate on export diversification and other structural policies. There is, however, scope for stabilization funds and the use of hedging strategies since the evidence also suggests commodity prices have become more volatile.