Commercial Real Estate and Macrofinancial Stability During COVID-19

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Author :
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781557759764
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (597 download)

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Book Synopsis Commercial Real Estate and Macrofinancial Stability During COVID-19 by : Andrea Deghi

Download or read book Commercial Real Estate and Macrofinancial Stability During COVID-19 written by Andrea Deghi and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2021-11-05 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic crisis has severely shocked the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, which could have important implications for macro-financial stability going forward because of the large size of the sector and its strong interconnectedness with the real economy. Using a novel methodology, this paper quantifies vulnerabilities in the CRE sector and analyzes policy tools available to mitigate related risks. The analysis shows that CRE prices were overvalued in several major advanced economies in 2020:Q1. It also shows that such price misalignments increase the likelihood of future price corrections and exacerbate downside risks to future GDP growth. While the path of recovery in the sector will depend inherently on the pace of overall economic recovery and the structural shifts induced by the pandemic, easy financial conditions may contribute to an increase in financial vulnerabilities and persistent price misalignment. Macroprudential policy can, however, be effective in curbing the financial stability risks posed by the CRE sector.

Commercial Real Estate Prices During COVID-19: What is Driving the Divergence?

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 15 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Commercial Real Estate Prices During COVID-19: What is Driving the Divergence? by : Andrea Deghi

Download or read book Commercial Real Estate Prices During COVID-19: What is Driving the Divergence? written by Andrea Deghi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-08-02 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After dropping sharply in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, commercial real estate prices are on the mend. However, the initial price decline, as well as the pace of recovery, vary widely across regions and different segments of the commercial real estate market. This note analyzes the factors that explain this divergence using city-level data from major advanced and emerging market economies. The findings show that pandemic-specific factors such as the stringency of containment measures and the spread of the virus are strongly associated with a decline in prices, while fiscal support and easy financial conditions maintained by central banks have helped to cushion the shock. A higher vaccination rate has aided the recovery of the sector, especially in the retail segment. Structural changes in private behavior such as the trend toward teleworking and e-commerce have also had an impact on commercial property prices in some segments. The outlook of the sector across regions thus remains closely tied to the trajectory of the pandemic and broader macroeconomic recovery, financial market conditions, and the pace of structural shifts in the demand for specific property types. In an environment of tightening financial conditions and a slowdown in economic activity, continued vigilance is warranted on the part of financial supervisors to minimize financial stability risks stemming from potential adverse shocks to the sector.

Commercial Real Estate and Financial Stability: Evidence from the US Banking Sector

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513578286
Total Pages : 11 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Commercial Real Estate and Financial Stability: Evidence from the US Banking Sector by : Mr. Salih Fendoglu

Download or read book Commercial Real Estate and Financial Stability: Evidence from the US Banking Sector written by Mr. Salih Fendoglu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-26 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note analyzes the implications of changes in commercial real estate (CRE) prices for the stability of the US banking sector. Using detailed bank-level and CRE price data for US metropolitan statistical areas, the analysis shows that, following a decline in CRE prices, banks with greater exposures to CRE loans perform worse than their counterparts, experiencing higher non-performing CRE loans, lower revenues, and lower capital. These effects are particularly pronounced if the drop in CRE prices turns out to be persistent because of possible structural shifts in CRE demand—for example, because of an increased trend toward e-commerce and teleworking—even after the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is over. The impact of a decline in CRE prices is especially true for small and community banks, which tend to have the highest CRE loan exposures. While the US banking sector has remained resilient during the pandemic crisis due to strong capital buffers and massive policy support, these findings suggest that continued vigilance is warranted with regard to potential downside risks to CRE prices amidst ongoing structural shifts in the sector.

Commercial Real Estate in Crisis: Evidence from Transaction-Level Data

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Commercial Real Estate in Crisis: Evidence from Transaction-Level Data by : Mr. Adrian Alter

Download or read book Commercial Real Estate in Crisis: Evidence from Transaction-Level Data written by Mr. Adrian Alter and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-01-27 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the past two decades, the commercial real estate (CRE) market has been impacted by major disruptions, including the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. Using granular data from the U.S., we document how these crises have unfolded and elaborate on the role of heterogeneity and underlying shocks. Both a set of reduced-form approaches and a structural framework suggest a prominent role for demand-side local factors in the short run, along with significant shifts in preferences during crisis episodes. However, valuations become more closely linked to macro-financial factors over the long term. A one-standard deviation tightening in financial conditions is associated with a drop of about 3\% in CRE prices in the following quarter, with a stronger impact on the retail sector and milder effects in states where household indebtedness is lower.

The Impact of Commercial Real Estate on the Financial Sector, Its Tracking by Central Banks and Some Recommendations for the Macro-financial Stability Policy of Central Banks

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (93 download)

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Book Synopsis The Impact of Commercial Real Estate on the Financial Sector, Its Tracking by Central Banks and Some Recommendations for the Macro-financial Stability Policy of Central Banks by : Krzysztof Olszewski

Download or read book The Impact of Commercial Real Estate on the Financial Sector, Its Tracking by Central Banks and Some Recommendations for the Macro-financial Stability Policy of Central Banks written by Krzysztof Olszewski and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Impact of Commercial Real Estate on the Financial Sector, Its Tracking by Central Banks and Some Recommendations for the Macro-financial Stability Policy of Central Banks

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (827 download)

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Book Synopsis The Impact of Commercial Real Estate on the Financial Sector, Its Tracking by Central Banks and Some Recommendations for the Macro-financial Stability Policy of Central Banks by : Krzysztof Olszewski (ekonomista)

Download or read book The Impact of Commercial Real Estate on the Financial Sector, Its Tracking by Central Banks and Some Recommendations for the Macro-financial Stability Policy of Central Banks written by Krzysztof Olszewski (ekonomista) and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability

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Author :
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1437930530
Total Pages : 190 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (379 download)

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Book Synopsis Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability by : Elizabeth Warren

Download or read book Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability written by Elizabeth Warren and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-08 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Real Estate in the Netherlands: A Taxonomy of Risks and Policy Challenges

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513589563
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Real Estate in the Netherlands: A Taxonomy of Risks and Policy Challenges by : André Geis

Download or read book Real Estate in the Netherlands: A Taxonomy of Risks and Policy Challenges written by André Geis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-06 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Soaring real estate prices and valuations despite the economic downturn brought by the pandemic have focussed the attention of Dutch policymakers on potential macro-financial and socio-economic implications. In this context, our paper reviews the salient features of Dutch commercial and residential real estate markets with an eye to identify pertinent risks and challenges. While we find that the Dutch authorities have made considerable strides to strengthen real estate-related policies in recent years, some, and partly long-standing, issues remain, requiring additional efforts to bolster financial stability, address housing supply shortages and manage secular changes affecting property markets.

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513569678
Total Pages : 92 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021 by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-06 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extraordinary policy measures have eased financial conditions and supported the economy, helping to contain financial stability risks. Chapter 1 warns that there is a pressing need to act to avoid a legacy of vulnerabilities while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. Actions taken during the pandemic may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities. The recovery is also expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies. Given large external financing needs, several emerging markets face challenges, especially if a persistent rise in US rates brings about a repricing of risk and tighter financial conditions. The corporate sector in many countries is emerging from the pandemic overindebted, with notable differences depending on firm size and sector. Concerns about the credit quality of hard-hit borrowers and profitability are likely to weigh on the risk appetite of banks. Chapter 2 studies leverage in the nonfinancial private sector before and during the COVID-19 crisis, pointing out that policymakers face a trade-off between boosting growth in the short term by facilitating an easing of financial conditions and containing future downside risks. This trade-off may be amplified by the existing high and rapidly building leverage, increasing downside risks to future growth. The appropriate timing for deployment of macroprudential tools should be country-specific, depending on the pace of recovery, vulnerabilities, and policy tools available. Chapter 3 turns to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the commercial real estate sector. While there is little evidence of large price misalignments at the onset of the pandemic, signs of overvaluation have now emerged in some economies. Misalignments in commercial real estate prices, especially if they interact with other vulnerabilities, increase downside risks to future growth due to the possibility of sharp price corrections.

COVID-19 and the Future of Commercial Real Estate Finance

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 18 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (127 download)

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Book Synopsis COVID-19 and the Future of Commercial Real Estate Finance by : Andrew P. Scott (Analyst in financial economics)

Download or read book COVID-19 and the Future of Commercial Real Estate Finance written by Andrew P. Scott (Analyst in financial economics) and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2024

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Financial Stability Report, April 2024 by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, April 2024 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-04-16 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chapter 1 documents that near-term global financial stability risks have receded amid expectations that global disinflation is entering its last mile. However, along it, there are several salient risks and a build-up of medium-term vulnerabilities. Chapter 2 assesses vulnerabilities and potential risks to financial stability in corporate private credit, a rapidly growing asset class—traditionally focused on providing loans to midsize firms outside the realms of either commercial banks or public debt markets—that now rivals other major credit markets in size. Chapter 3 shows that while cyber incidents have thus far not been systemic, the probability of severe cyber incidents has increased, posing an acute threat to macrofinancial stability.

Luxembourg

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 116 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Luxembourg by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Download or read book Luxembourg written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-06-24 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Luxembourg financial system is highly interconnected, diverse and complex. It has displayed a high level of resilience in the past but currently faces a backdrop of heightened economic, financial, and geopolitical uncertainty. Investment funds have grown since the 2017 FSAP, while their connections to other funds, banks, nonbank financial intermediaries, and foreign entities have also increased. The domestic banks are exposed to the ongoing downturn in credit and house price cycles, especially in the high-risk mortgage segment with floating-rate loans. Securities portfolios in large banks are mostly held-to-maturity and spread across euro area issuers. Against the risks, the financial system maintains higher capital ratios than euro area peers, has low but rising nonperforming loans, and benefits from government support measures to the private sector from an AAA-rated sovereign.

Commercial Real Estate Prices and Covid-19

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (123 download)

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Book Synopsis Commercial Real Estate Prices and Covid-19 by : Martin Hoesli

Download or read book Commercial Real Estate Prices and Covid-19 written by Martin Hoesli and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (944 download)

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Book Synopsis Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability by :

Download or read book Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

A Quantitative Framework for Commercial Property and its Relationship to the Analysis of the Financial Stability of the Corporate Sector

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis A Quantitative Framework for Commercial Property and its Relationship to the Analysis of the Financial Stability of the Corporate Sector by : John Whitley

Download or read book A Quantitative Framework for Commercial Property and its Relationship to the Analysis of the Financial Stability of the Corporate Sector written by John Whitley and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a quantitative framework for analysis of the UK commercial property sector and the possible implications for the financial stability of this sector, and for the corporate sector as a whole. There is little previous empirical literature. But where there is, models have either studied particular markets or have developed single-equation approaches. Lack of suitable data has been a major impediment. In this paper a model of the real estate sector is constructed using econometric analysis of rental values and bank lending, supplemented by a calibrated model of the remainder of the financial accounts of real estate companies (using data for private and public real estate companies). Using related work on company-failure models, it is possible to extend the analysis to provide an equation for the probability of default of real estate companies. The empirical results fail to find a role for borrowing costs in the bank lending equation before 1999, but unless borrowing costs are included after this period, the equation breaks down and systematically underestimates the growth in lending to real estate from then on. Various potential explanations are examined for this breakdown, including the importance of sale and lease-backs. The estimated rental equation appears more stable. The historical tracking performance of the estimated real estate model fails to capture the full extent of the swings in capital values and bank lending in the early 1990s. This is attributed to shifts in the discount rate applied to property income, possibly reflecting a temporary shift in risk premia during this period. The property sector links to the rest of the private non-financial corporate sector through its role as collateral. Since the property model relies partly on macroeconomic influences it can be used in conjunction with macro models to provide forecasts of property values and the probability of default of property companies. Simulations that use this model with the Bank of England macroeconometric model show not only the sensitivity of the probability of default of real estate companies to selected macroeconomic shocks, but also the potential links between the commercial property sector and the financial health of the rest of the corporate sector.

Macroeconomic Consequences of Remittances

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451925255
Total Pages : 94 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Consequences of Remittances by : Connel Fullenkamp

Download or read book Macroeconomic Consequences of Remittances written by Connel Fullenkamp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-03-11 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Given the large size of aggregate remittance flows (billions of dollars annually), they should be expected to have significant macroeconomic effects on the economies that receive them. This paper directly addresses the two main issues of interest to policymakers with regard to remittances--how to manage their macroeconomic effects, and how to harness their development potential--by reporting the results of the first global study of the comprehensive macroeconomic effects of remittances on recipient economies. In broad terms, the findings of this paper tend to confirm the main benefit cited in the microeconomic literature: remittances improve households' welfare by lifting families out of poverty and insuring them against income shocks. The findings also yield a number of important caveats and policy considerations, however, that have largely been overlooked. The main challenge for policymakers in countries that receive significant flows of remittances is to design policies that promote remittances and increase their benefits while mitigating adverse side effects. Getting these policy prescriptions correct early on is imperative. Globalization and the aging of developed economy populations will ensure that demand for migrant workers remains robust for years to come. Hence, the volume of remittances likely will continue to grow, and with it, the challenge of unlocking the maximum societal benefit from these transfers.

Making Debt Work For Development and Macroeconomic Stability

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Making Debt Work For Development and Macroeconomic Stability by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Making Debt Work For Development and Macroeconomic Stability written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-04-26 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The coronavirus crisis has stiffened debt and development-related headwinds that had become strong even before 2020. Sustaining development while maintaining debt sustainability has been made harder by the protracted effects of the pandemic on public finances, earnings and employment, and human capital accumulation of vulnerable populations. The fiscal support programs financed by public debt provided relief and saved lives and livelihoods. But debt-induced uncertainty can now dampen investment and growth, especially given rising global interest rates. Bigger debt servicing burdens will reduce available fiscal space for development and stabilization and growing sovereign debt financing needs can crowd out domestic investment. Over-indebtedness can adversely affect economic development through many channels—"debt overhang,” “fiscal space,” “crowding out” and increased crisis risk —making countries vulnerable to abrupt changes in market sentiment, jeopardizing both stability and growth.