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Caribbean Development Report A Perusal Of Public Debt In The Caribbean And Its Impact On Economic Growth
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Book Synopsis Caribbean Development Report: A Perusal of Public Debt in the Caribbean and Its Impact on Economic Growth by : Sheldon McLean
Download or read book Caribbean Development Report: A Perusal of Public Debt in the Caribbean and Its Impact on Economic Growth written by Sheldon McLean and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the genesis and evolution of debt and debt overhang in the Caribbean with individual case studies, to extract lessons and make broad recommendations with regard to appropriate mechanisms and policy measures that can be implemented to reduce the debt burden of the subregion. The econometric model utilized in the paper has shown that a one percent increase on debt to GDP ratio causes a 0.015decline in real GDP growth for the countries in the Caribbean panel, suggesting that debt has a pernicious effect on growth on Caribbean economies. What is even more worrisome was that Caribbean economies did not demonstrate the traditional non-linear (bell-shaped) effect of debt on growth, where there is a range in which a positive relation between debt and growth exists. Traditionally, as debt increases, so does economic growth, up to a point. After this maximum point is passed, the relationship turns negative, where increases in debt cause a decrease in economic growth. In contrast, using the Caribbean countries selected in the panel over the period 2000-2015, it was empirically found that, at all levels, increases in debt resulted in a decline in economic growth for Caribbean economies. It was also shown that the financial crisis negatively affected growth in the Caribbean, lending credence to the view that Caribbean economies are exceedingly vulnerable to exogenous economic shocks.
Book Synopsis Caribbean Renewal by : Charles Amo Yartey
Download or read book Caribbean Renewal written by Charles Amo Yartey and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-06 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Caribbean economies face high and rising debt-to-GDP ratios that jeopardize prospects for medium-term debt sustainability and growth. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the challenges of fiscal consolidation and debt reduction in the Caribbean. It examines the problem of high debt in the region and discusses policy options for improving debt sustainability, including fiscal consolidation, robust growth, and structural reforms. The book also examines empirically the factors underlying global large debt reduction episodes to draw important policy lessons for the Caribbean. It also reviews the literature on successful fiscal consolidation experiences and provides an overview of past and current consolidation efforts in the Caribbean. The book concludes that the region needs a broad and sustained package of reforms to reduce debt ratios to more manageable levels and strengthen economic resilience.
Book Synopsis Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt by : Kevin Greenidge
Download or read book Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt written by Kevin Greenidge and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper addresses the issue of threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in the Caribbean. The main finding is that there exists a threshold debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of 55–56 percent. Moreover, the debt dynamics begin changing well before this threshold is reached. Specifically, at debt levels lower than 30 percent of GDP, increases in the debt-to-GDP ratio are associated with faster economic growth. However, as debt rises beyond 30 percent, the effects on economic growth diminishes rapidly and at debt levels reaching 55-56 percent of GDP, the growth impacts switch from positive to negative. Thus, beyond this threshold, debt becomes a drag on growth.
Book Synopsis Debt, Growth and Natural Disasters A Caribbean Trilogy by : Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
Download or read book Debt, Growth and Natural Disasters A Caribbean Trilogy written by Sebastian Acevedo Mejia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-16 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper seeks to determine the effects that natural disasters have on per capita GDP and on the debt to GDP ratio in the Caribbean. Two types of natural disasters are studied –storms and floods– given their prevalence in the region, while considering the effects of both moderate and severe disasters. I use a vector autoregressive model with exogenous natural disasters shocks, in a panel of 12 Caribbean countries over a period of 40 years. The results show that both storms and floods have a negative effect on growth, and that debt increases with floods but not with storms. However, in a subsample I find that storms significantly increase debt in the short and long run. I also find weak evidence that debt relief contributes to ease the negative effects of storms on debt.
Book Synopsis Public Debt Targeting An Application to the Caribbean by : Mr.Alejandro D. Guerson
Download or read book Public Debt Targeting An Application to the Caribbean written by Mr.Alejandro D. Guerson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-08-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a fiscal policy framework we call Public Debt Targeting. The framework seeks to smooth primary spending over the business cycle while remaining consistent with public debt sustainability. Under the proposed framework, a government announces a commitment to a public debt band trajectory over the medium term, while sequentially announcing primary expenditures for the next budget cycle, which are determined recursively based on the history of shocks. Public debt targeting differs from a structural balance rule in that it internalizes the effect of the deterioration in creditworthiness from fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation, which tend to affect sovereign spreads, interest rates, exchange rates, and economic activity. The proposed framework is applied to Caribbean economies, which in general show high levels of public debt and procyclical primary expenditure.
Book Synopsis The Challenges of Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Reduction in the Caribbean by : Charles Amo Yartey
Download or read book The Challenges of Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Reduction in the Caribbean written by Charles Amo Yartey and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-08 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines debt dynamics in the Caribbean and discusses policy options for reducing the high debt levels. Based on empirical studies of factors underlying global large debt reduction episodes, important policy lessons are drawn for the Caribbean. The analysis shows that major debt reductions are associated with strong growth and decisive and lasting fiscal consolidation efforts. Since growth in the current environment is virtually nonexistent, significant fiscal consolidation is inevitable in the region. Better control of the public wage bill, increasing public sector efficiency and tackling transfers are the obvious targets to reduce spending. On the revenue side, there is ample room to reduce tax expenditures, eliminate distortions while broadening the tax base. Fiscal consolidation needs to be complemented by a comprehensive debt reduction strategy including tax policy reforms and structural reforms to boost competiveness.
Book Synopsis Riding the Storm: Fiscal Sustainability in the Caribbean by : Mr.Serhan Cevik
Download or read book Riding the Storm: Fiscal Sustainability in the Caribbean written by Mr.Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-01-31 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal sustainability remains a paramount challenge for small economies with high debt and greater vulnerability to climate change. This paper applies the model-based sustainability test for fiscal policy in a panel of 16 Caribbean countries during the period 1980–2018. The results indicate that the coefficient on lagged government debt is positive and statistically significant, implying that fiscal policy in the Caribbean takes corrective actions to counteract an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio. Nonlinear estimations, however, show that the quadratic debt parameter is negative, which indicates that fiscal policy response is not adequate to ensure sustainability at higher levels of debt. We also find that the fiscal stance tends to be countercyclical on average during the sample period. These empirical results confirm that maintaining prudent fiscal policies and implementing growth-enhancing structural reforms are necessary to build fiscal buffers and ensure debt sustainability with high probability even when negative shocks occur over the long term.
Book Synopsis Excerpt: Unleashing Growth and Strengthening Resilience in the Caribbean by : Mr.Krishna Srinivasan
Download or read book Excerpt: Unleashing Growth and Strengthening Resilience in the Caribbean written by Mr.Krishna Srinivasan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-29 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a diagnosis of the central economic and financial challenges facing Caribbean policymakers and offers broad policy recommendations for promoting a sustained and inclusive increase in economic well-being. The analysis highlights the need for Caribbean economies to make a concerted effort to break the feedback loops between weak macroeconomic fundamentals, notably pertaining to fiscal positions and financial sector strains, and structural impediments, such as high electricity costs, limited financial deepening, violent crime, and brain drain, which have depressed private investment and growth. A recurring theme in the book is the need for greater regional coordination in finding solutions to address the Caribbean’s shared and intertwined macroeconomic and structural challenges. The analysis suggests that strengthening regional and global market integration of Caribbean economies would provide an impetus to sustained growth in incomes and jobs. Greater regional and global economic integration would also facilitate structural transformation and a shift toward new economic activities, resulting in more diversified and less vulnerable economies. A central challenge for the Caribbean is thus to come together as a region, overcome the limitations posed by size, and garner the benefits of globalization. Efforts should build on existing regional arrangements; accelerating progress in implementing these agreements would stimulate trade. Policymakers could also promote deeper integration with Latin America and the rest of the world by pursuing new trade agreements, leveraging current agreements more effectively, or deepening them to include areas beyond traditional trade issues, and developing port and transport infrastructure.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Rules and Economic Size in Latin America and the Caribbean by : Fernando Blanco
Download or read book Fiscal Rules and Economic Size in Latin America and the Caribbean written by Fernando Blanco and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-10-10 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following the collapse of commodity prices in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in 2014-15, many countries in the region were unable to cushion the impact of the shock in order to experience a more gradual adjustment, to a large extent because they had not built adequate fiscal buffers during the commodities’ windfall from 2010-14. Many LAC countries entered 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis in an even more difficult position, with rising debt and limited fiscal space to smooth the negative impacts of the pandemic and adequately support their economies. Fiscal policy in most LAC countries has been procyclical. Public expenditure and debt levels have expanded in good times and contracted in severe downswings due to insufficient fiscal buffers, making crises deeper. Fiscal rules represent a promising policy option for these and other economies. If well-designed and implemented, they can help build buffers during periods of strong economic performance that will be available during rainy days to smooth economic shocks. This book—which was prepared before the COVID-19 crisis—reviews the performance and implementation of different fiscal rules in the region and world. It provides analytical and practical criteria for policy makers for the design, establishment, and feasible implementation of fiscal rules based on each country's business cycle features, external characteristics, type of shocks faced, initial fiscal conditions, technical and institutional capacities, and political context. While establishing new fiscal rules would not help to attenuate the immediate effects of this pandemic crisis, higher debt levels in the aftermath of COVID-19 will demand rebuilding better and stronger institutional frameworks of fiscal policy in LAC and emerging economies globally. Having stronger fiscal mechanisms that include fiscal rules can help countries prepare for the next crisis and should be on the front burner for policy makers in coming years. The findings and lessons discussed apply to economies of different sizes, with some differences under certain scenarios in terms of the technical design and criteria needed for implementation. In this book, policy makers will find that fiscal rules, if tailored to country characteristics, can work and be an essential fiscal tool for larger and particularly smaller economies.
Book Synopsis Poverty Reduction and Human Development in the Caribbean by : Judy L. Baker
Download or read book Poverty Reduction and Human Development in the Caribbean written by Judy L. Baker and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1997-01-01 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: World Bank Discussion Paper No. 366.Despite impressive success in improving living conditions in many Caribbean countries, poverty still persists throughout the region. This study seeks to improve our understanding of poverty in the Caribbean and the current efforts to address it. It analyzes the causes and characteristics of poverty in 15 Caribbean countries and reviews the experiences with the poverty and alleviation efforts that countries have pursued. Prepared for the 1996 meeting of the Caribbean Group for Cooperation in Economic Development, this report provides recommendations on how macroeconomic and social policies can be further oriented to reduce poverty and promote human resource development.
Book Synopsis Public Sector Debt in the Caribbean by : Caribbean Growth Forum CGF
Download or read book Public Sector Debt in the Caribbean written by Caribbean Growth Forum CGF and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the late 1990s, with comparatively low and stable inflation, relative political stability and the deepening of local and regional financial markets, Caribbean governments have largely had easy access to financial resources. Increased access to international capital markets and deepening domestic financial markets encouraged international and domestic borrowing and led to a virtual doubling of average national public debt in the Region since the mid-1990s. This steady debt accumulation has placed Caribbean countries among the most highly indebted middle-income countries in the world. At the end of 2010,1/6th of the 10 most highly indebted countries were from the Caribbean, while four countries - St. Kitts and Nevis, Jamaica, Barbados and Grenada - ranked among the top five. All six countries had public debt levels in excess of 80 percent (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).Among non-Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) countries, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago, both predominantly mineral exporters, were the only Caribbean countries that have maintained relatively moderate levels of public debt at or below 40% of GDP for most of the decade. Guyana and Haiti have maintained modest debt levels only since benefiting from substantial debt relief under the Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiatives (MDRI) in 2008-09. Jamaica has had chronically high levels of public debt for more than three decades, while Barbados has witnessed a rapid build-up in its debt since the late 1990s. These trends raise important questions for the Caribbean region. How detrimental is the debt problem in the Caribbean? What has been the nature and extent of the debt experience? What are the drivers of debt accumulation in the Region? What are the characteristics of the Caribbean that explain its propensity to indebtedness? What are the prospects for debt levels in the Region? These questions are answered in this report.
Book Synopsis Better Spending for Better Lives by : Alejandro Izquierdo
Download or read book Better Spending for Better Lives written by Alejandro Izquierdo and published by Inter-American Development Bank. This book was released on 2018-09-16 with total page 453 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can this puzzle of larger demands and fiscal strengthening be solved? This edition of the development in the Americas (DIA) report focuses precisely on this question. The book suggests that the answer is about fiscal efficiency and smart spending rather than the standard solution of across-the-board spending cuts to achieve fiscal sustainability— sometimes at great cost for society. It is about doing more with less. · Analysis of government spending in Latin America and the Caribbean reveals widespread waste and inefficiencies that could be as large as 4.4 percent of the region’s GDP, showing there is ample room to improve basic services without necessarily spending more resources. · The publication argues against across-the-board cuts. It looks at whether countries spend too much or too little on different priorities, whether they invest enough to ensure a better future, and whether those expenditures make inequality better or worse. · Along with the diagnosis, the report offers several policy recommendations on how to improve the efficiency of government spending.
Book Synopsis Accelerating Trade and Integration in the Caribbean by : World Bank
Download or read book Accelerating Trade and Integration in the Caribbean written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2009-07-17 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main objective of this report is to help policymakers in the Caribbean design an agenda of policy actions to accelerate trade integration and growth and reduce poverty. The report is a joint response from the World Bank and the Organization of American States (OAS) to a demand statement from the member states of CARICOM, formulated by the Caribbean Regional Negotiating Machinery and the CARICOM Secretariat, to strengthen the analytical underpinnings of the linkages between trade, economic growth, and poverty. It aims at centering the Caribbean's next round of trade reforms and its overall agenda around trade on these key thematic areas. The report provides an overview of the economic and trade system context of the Caribbean, under which the new trade environment is operating. It then discusses the opportunities and challenges for the Caribbean associated with the new trade environment. It finally quantifies the gains from global trade integration using a dynamic macroeconomic analysis. The report provides policy priorities to accelerating Caribbean integration into the world economy and to reap the benefits of global competition. Each part of the report focuses on a key question and adds value by providing an in-depth analysis of the issues raised and laying the foundations for policy recommendations described in the last chapter of the report: * Part I (Overview of economic and trade system context): is Caribbean's economic and trade system sound enough to sustain the new era of its global trade relations which is being shaped? * Part II (Focuses on the analysis of the new opportunities and challenges of the new trade environment): what are the opportunities and challenges that the new trade environment offers to the Caribbean? * Part III (Presents an assessment of the impact of the EPA on growth and poverty using two types of macroeconomic models): what are the gains in terms of growth and poverty reduction of the recently negotiated EPA?
Book Synopsis Stabilization, Debt, and Fiscal Policy in the Caribbean by : Ms.Ratna Sahay
Download or read book Stabilization, Debt, and Fiscal Policy in the Caribbean written by Ms.Ratna Sahay and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2005-02-01 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although Caribbean countries have been largely successful in bringing annual inflation down to single digits in recent years-regardless of their exchange rate regime-their growth rates have been disappointing and their public debt has risen rapidly. By 2003, 14 of 15 Caribbean countries ranked in the top 30 of the world's highly indebted emerging market countries. Most of the increase in their public debt is accounted for by a deterioration in primary fiscal balances that has been largely due to a sharp increase in expenditures rather than a fall in revenues. With the countries of the region now increasingly facing unsustainable debt positions, innovative ways need to be found to raise their economic growth rates and generate fiscal savings to reverse the debt buildup, and to maintain or raise their current living standards.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Sustainability and Policy Issues in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union by : Phebby Kufa
Download or read book Fiscal Sustainability and Policy Issues in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union written by Phebby Kufa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-08-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The fiscal position of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) has deteriorated significantly in recent years, resulting in sharp increases in public debt. The sustainability of public debt is examined using the public sector budget constraint to derive the maximum public-debt-to-GDP ratio that can be sustained based on a country's projected steady-state primary balance, interest rate on public debt, and economic growth rate. In this context, government deficits and debt in several ECCU member countries appear unsustainable, posing a risk to the stability of the currency union. A critical issue facing member countries is to implement fiscal policies consistent with sustainable public finances and debt to underpin the currency union.
Book Synopsis Public Debt and Development Distress in Latin America and the Caribbean by :
Download or read book Public Debt and Development Distress in Latin America and the Caribbean written by and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unfavourable global macrofinancial conditions have given rise to concerns about public debt sustainability in developing economies, including those of Latin America and the Caribbean. These adverse conditions threaten to worsen the already weak economic growth in the region. Public debt in the region is at levels last seen two decades ago, with a sharp increase in 2020 capping a progressive rise over the past decade. History suggests that countries may undergo development distress when similar macrofinancial and debt conditions coincide. High debt service may lead countries to face critical trade-offs between debt service and pursuing development objectives. When these trade-offs are no longer viable and market conditions deteriorate, a country may face a debt crisis, with severe and long-lasting disruptions to development, as experienced in the region after the debt crisis of the 1980s. Against the backdrop of the current macrofinancial and debt environment, there is greater urgency to transform the international sovereign debt architecture. The United Nations SDG Stimulus proposal outlines concrete steps in this direction, with solutions for all countries that are aligned with development.
Book Synopsis Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean by : Norman Loayza
Download or read book Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean written by Norman Loayza and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005-01-01 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are suffering severe economic downturns and the success of market-oriented reforms is being called into question. This report seeks to contribute to the debate by examining the nature of economic growth in the region. The aim is threefold: to describe the basic characteristics of growth; explain differences across countries and to forecast changes over the next decade.
