Capital Flow Volatility And Contagion

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International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion – A Survey

Author : Mr.R. Gelos
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455253316
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)

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Book Synopsis International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion – A Survey by : Mr.R. Gelos

Download or read book International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion – A Survey written by Mr.R. Gelos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-01 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gaining a better understanding of the behavior of international investors is key for informing the debate about the optimal response to capital flows and about reforms to the international financial architecture. In this context, recent research on the behavior of international mutual funds at the micro level has expanded our knowledge about the drivers of portfolio flows and the mechanisms behind the transmission of financial shocks across countries. This paper provides a brief survey of this literature, with a focus on the empirical evidence for emerging markets. Overall, the behavior of international mutual funds is complex and overly simplistic characterizations are misleading. However, there is broad-based evidence for momentum trading among funds. Moreover, funds tend to avoid opaque markets and assets, and this behavior becomes more pronounced during volatile times. Portfolio rebalancing mechanisms are clearly important in explaining contagion patterns, even in the absence of common macroeconomic fundamentals. From a surveillance point of view, this implies that monitoring the exposures of large investors at a micro level is crucial to assess vulnerabilities.

Capital Flow Volatility and Contagion

Author : Kristin Forbes
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (931 download)

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Book Synopsis Capital Flow Volatility and Contagion by : Kristin Forbes

Download or read book Capital Flow Volatility and Contagion written by Kristin Forbes and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion

Author : Gaston Gelos
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (838 download)

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Book Synopsis International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion by : Gaston Gelos

Download or read book International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion written by Gaston Gelos and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Do Contagion Effects Exist in Capital Flow Volatility?

Author : Hyŏn-hun Yi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (815 download)

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Book Synopsis Do Contagion Effects Exist in Capital Flow Volatility? by : Hyŏn-hun Yi

Download or read book Do Contagion Effects Exist in Capital Flow Volatility? written by Hyŏn-hun Yi and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Volatility and Contagion in a Financially Integrated World

Author :
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 67 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility and Contagion in a Financially Integrated World by :

Download or read book Volatility and Contagion in a Financially Integrated World written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: November 1998 Recent events in East Asia highlighted the risks of weak financial institutions and distorted incentives in a financially integrated world. These weaknesses led to two sources of vulnerability: East Asia's rapid buildup of contingent liabilities, and overreliance on short-term foreign borrowing. The buildup of vulnerabilities in East Asia is shown here to be mainly the result of weaknesses in financial intermediation, poor corporate governance, and deficient government policies, including pro-cyclical macroeconomic policy responses to large capital inflows. Weak due diligence by external creditors, fueled partly by ample global liquidity, also played a role but global factors were more important in triggering the crises than in causing them. The crisis occurred partly because the economies lacked the institutional and regulatory structure to cope with increasingly integrated capital markets. Trouble arose from private sector decisions (by both borrowers and lenders) but governments created incentives for risky behavior and exerted little regulatory authority. Governments failed to encourage the transparency needed for the market to recognize and correct such problems as unreported mutual guarantees, insider relations, and nondisclosure of banks' and companies' true net positions. Domestic weaknesses were aggravated by poorly disciplined foreign lending. The problem was not so much overall indebtedness as the composition of debt: a buildup of short-term unhedged debt left the economies vulnerable to a sudden loss of confidence. The same factors made the crisis's economic and social impact more severe than some anticipated. The loss of confidence directly affected private demand-both investment and consumption-which could not be offset in the short run by net external demand. The effect on corporations and financial institutions has been severe because of the high degree of leveraging and the unhedged, short-term nature of foreign liabilities, which has led to a severe liquidity crunch. Domestic recession, financial and corporate distress, liquidity constraints, and political uncertainty were self-reinforcing, leading to a severe downturn. This paper-a joint product of the Economic Policy Unit, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network and the Central Bank of Chile-was presented at the CEPR/World Bank conference Financial Crises: Contagion and Market Volatility, May 8-9, 1998, London, and at the PAFTAD 24 conference, Asia Pacific Financial Liberation and Reform, May 20-22, 1998, in Chiangmai, Thailand. Pedro Alba may be contacted at [email protected].

Theories of Contagion

Author : Andreas Vester
Publisher : diplom.de
ISBN 13 : 3832498737
Total Pages : 89 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (324 download)

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Book Synopsis Theories of Contagion by : Andreas Vester

Download or read book Theories of Contagion written by Andreas Vester and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 2006-10-02 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: In recent years academics and policy makers have become more and more interested in the phenomenon of contagion, a concept involving the transmission of a financial crisis from one country to one or more other countries. During the 1990s world capital markets witnessed a number of financial crises. In 1992 the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) crisis hit the European continent. Several countries in Latin America have been rocked during the 1994-95 Tequila crisis, and the Asian Flu spread through East Asian countries in 1997-98 with dramatic social implications. Later in 1998 the famous hedge fund Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) had to file for bankruptcy and the Russian debt failure shocked international capital markets and increased volatility on a global scale. The crisis spread to as far as Brazil in early 1999 and developed markets have become victims as well. The question asked by academics and policy makers is how countries should behave in order to avoid contagion. To answer this question it is necessary to understand the different channels of contagion in greater detail and how a crisis can be transmitted from one country to another. The objective of this paper is to highlight those channels and to present a number of models and theories of contagion, which have recently been developed by academics. In general, there are several strands of theories in the literature that try to explain the transmission of crises. During the mid and late 1990s fundamental-based contagion and spillovers became popular among researchers and policy makers. Furthermore, financial linkages have been known to contribute to contagion. In contrast, in recent years, portfolio flows of international investors moved into the focus of academics. The advocates of fundamental-based contagion and spillovers argue that trade linkages between countries are responsible for contagion. For instance, a devaluation of a country's currency may lead to a negative change in fundamentals of its trading partners. On the other hand, contagion due to financial linkages is mainly explained by the fact that countries share the same banks and therefore have common creditors. A crisis in one country then leads to a deteriorating balance sheet of those common creditors. This in turn may force banks to withdraw money out of other countries in order to avoid further losses, a fact that leads to contagious sellouts. The role of international portfolio flows, which is [...]

The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets

Author : Maria Sole Pagliari
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475585268
Total Pages : 58 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets by : Maria Sole Pagliari

Download or read book The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets written by Maria Sole Pagliari and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-07 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue in two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 65 countries over the period 1970Q1-2016Q1, we construct three measures of volatility, for total capital flows and key instruments. Second, we perform panel regressions to understand the determinants of volatility. The measures show that the volatility of all instruments is prone to bouts, rising sharply during global shocks like the taper tantrum episode. Capital flow volatility thus remains a challenge for policy makers. The regression results suggest that push factors can be more important than pull factors in explaining volatility, illustrating that the characteristics of volatility can be different from those of the flows levels.

Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies

Author : Sebastian Edwards
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226184722
Total Pages : 366 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (261 download)

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Book Synopsis Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies by : Sebastian Edwards

Download or read book Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 1990s witnessed several acute currency crises among developing nations that invariably spread to other nearby at-risk countries. These episodes—in Mexico, Thailand, South Korea, Russia, and Brazil—were all exacerbated by speculative foreign investments and high-volume movements of capital in and out of those countries. Insufficient domestic controls and a sluggish international response further undermined these economies, as well as the credibility of external oversight agencies like the International Monetary Fund. This timely volume examines the correlation between volatile capital mobility, currency instability, and the threat of regional contagion, focusing particular attention on the emergent economies of Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. Together these studies offer a new understanding of the empirical relationship between capital flows, international trade, and economic performance, and also afford key insights into realms of major policy concern.

International Financial Contagion

Author : Stijn Claessens
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475733143
Total Pages : 461 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)

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Book Synopsis International Financial Contagion by : Stijn Claessens

Download or read book International Financial Contagion written by Stijn Claessens and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 461 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: No sooner had the Asian crisis broken out in 1997 than the witch-hunt started. With great indignation every Asian economy pointed fingers. They were innocent bystanders. The fundamental reason for the crisis was this or that - most prominently contagion - but also the decline in exports of the new commodities (high-tech goods), the steep rise of the dollar, speculators, etc. The prominent question, of course, is whether contagion could really have been the key factor and, if so, what are the channels and mechanisms through which it operated in such a powerful manner. The question is obvious because until 1997, Asia's economies were generally believed to be immensely successful, stable and well managed. This question is of great importance not only in understanding just what happened, but also in shaping policies. In a world of pure contagion, i.e. when innocent bystanders are caught up and trampled by events not of their making and when consequences go far beyond ordinary international shocks, countries will need to look for better protective policies in the future. In such a world, the international financial system will need to change in order to offer better preventive and reactive policy measures to help avoid, or at least contain, financial crises.

Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows

Author : Mr.R. G Gelos
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513522906
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows by : Mr.R. G Gelos

Download or read book Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows written by Mr.R. G Gelos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-20 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.

Surges

Author : Mr.Atish R. Ghosh
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1463942303
Total Pages : 43 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (639 download)

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Book Synopsis Surges by : Mr.Atish R. Ghosh

Download or read book Surges written by Mr.Atish R. Ghosh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines why surges in capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) occur, and what determines the allocation of capital across countries during such surge episodes. We use two different methodologies to identify surges in EMEs over 1980-2009, differentiating between those mainly caused by changes in the country's external liabilities (reflecting the investment decisions of foreigners), and those caused by changes in its assets (reflecting the decisions of residents). Global factors-including US interest rates and risk aversion¡-are key to determining whether a surge will occur, but domestic factors such as the country's external financing needs (as implied by an intertemporal optimizing model of the current account) and structural characteristics also matter, which explains why not all EMEs experience surges. Conditional on a surge occurring, moreover, the magnitude of the capital inflow depends largely on domestic factors including the country's external financing needs, and the exchange rate regime. Finally, while similar factors explain asset- and liability-driven surges, the latter are more sensitive to global factors and contagion.

Taming the Tide of Capital Flows

Author : Atish R. Ghosh
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262037165
Total Pages : 489 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Taming the Tide of Capital Flows by : Atish R. Ghosh

Download or read book Taming the Tide of Capital Flows written by Atish R. Ghosh and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2018-01-12 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive examination of policy measures intended to help emerging markets contend with large and volatile capital flows. While always episodic in nature, capital flows to emerging market economies have been especially volatile since the global financial crisis. After peaking at $680 billion in 2007, flows to emerging markets turned negative at the onset of crisis in 2008, then rebounded only to recede again during the U.S. sovereign debt downgrade in 2011. Since then, flows have continued to swing wildly, leaving emerging market policy makers wondering whether they can put in place policies during the inflow phase that will soften the blow when flows subsequently recede. This book offers the first comprehensive treatment of policy measures intended to help emerging markets contend with large and volatile capital flows. The authors, all IMF experts, explain that, in the spirit of liberalization and deregulation in the 1980s and 1990s, many emerging market governments eliminated capital inflow controls along with outflow controls. By 2012, however, capital inflow controls were again acknowledged as legitimate policy tools. Focusing on the macroeconomic and financial-stability risks associated with capital flows, the authors combine theoretical and empirical analysis to consider the interaction between monetary, exchange rate, macroprudential, and capital control policies to mitigate these risks. They examine the effectiveness of various policy tools, discuss the practical considerations and multilateral implications of their use, and provide concrete policy advice for dealing with capital inflows.

Large Capital Flows

Author : Mr.Alejandro Lopez Mejia
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451843518
Total Pages : 55 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Large Capital Flows by : Mr.Alejandro Lopez Mejia

Download or read book Large Capital Flows written by Mr.Alejandro Lopez Mejia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-02-01 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the causes, consequences, and policy responses to large capital flows in several emerging markets. It opens by studying recent patterns of capital flows, and then discusses the causes of capital flows. Emphasis is given to the reasons behind the capital inflow episode in the 1990s, the major reversals, and the volatility observed in these flows. The paper goes on to examine the consequences of capital inflows and the pros and cons of alternative policy responses. It concludes with policy lessons derived from country experiences.

Capital Flow Waves

Author : Kristin J. Forbes
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 57 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (748 download)

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Book Synopsis Capital Flow Waves by : Kristin J. Forbes

Download or read book Capital Flow Waves written by Kristin J. Forbes and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the drivers of international waves in capital flows. We build on the literature on 'sudden stops' and 'bonanzas' to develop a new methodology for identifying episodes of extreme capital flow movements using quarterly data on gross inflows and gross outflows, differentiating activity by foreigners and domestics. We identify episodes of 'surge', 'stop', 'flight', and 'retrenchment' and show how our approach yields fundamentally different results than the previous literature that used measures of net flows. Global factors, especially global risk, are the most important determinants of these episodes. Contagion, especially through trade and the bilateral exposure of banking systems, is important in determining stop and retrenchment episodes. Domestic macroeconomic characteristics are generally less important, although changes in domestic economic growth influence episodes caused by foreigners. We find little role for capital controls in reducing capital flow waves. The results help provide insights for different theoretical approaches explaining crises and capital flow volatility -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

Author : Philippe Bacchetta
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Capital Flows to Emerging Markets by : Philippe Bacchetta

Download or read book Capital Flows to Emerging Markets written by Philippe Bacchetta and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper analyzes the impact of financial liberalizations and reforms in emerging markets on the dynamics of capital flows to these markets, using a simple model of international investors' behavior. We first show that the gradual nature of liberalizations, combined with the cost of absorbing large inflows in emerging economies, leads to rich dynamics of capital flows and often implies an initial period of overshooting as portfolios adjust. Asset prices will overshoot as well. Second, we show that if investors have incomplete information about new emerging markets, and learn over time, there can be high volatility of capital flows as well as contagion. Finally, we provide numerical estimates of long run capital inflows to emerging market economies and compare them to actual inflows. This gives a good indicator of upcoming crisis situations.

International Capital Flows

Author : Martin Feldstein
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226241807
Total Pages : 500 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (262 download)

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Book Synopsis International Capital Flows by : Martin Feldstein

Download or read book International Capital Flows written by Martin Feldstein and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.

Managing Capital Flows

Author : Masahiro Kawai
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 184980687X
Total Pages : 465 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (498 download)

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Book Synopsis Managing Capital Flows by : Masahiro Kawai

Download or read book Managing Capital Flows written by Masahiro Kawai and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing Capital Flows provides analyses that can help policymakers develop a framework for managing capital flows that is consistent with prudent macroeconomic and financial sector stability. While capital inflows can provide emerging market economies with invaluable benefits in pursuing economic development and growth, they can also pose serious policy challenges for macroeconomic management and financial sector supervision. The expert contributors cover a wide range of issues related to managing capital flows and analyze the experience of emerging Asian economies in dealing with surges in capital inflows. They also discuss possible policy measures to manage capital flows while remaining consistent with the goals of macroeconomic and financial sector stability. Building on this analysis, the book presents options for workable national policies and regional policy cooperation, particularly in exchange rate management. Containing chapters that bring in international experiences relevant to Asia and other emerging market economies, this insightful book will appeal to policymakers in governments and financial institutions, as well as public and private finance experts. It will also be of great interest to advanced students and academic researchers in finance.