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Calculating Potential Growth Rates And Output Gaps
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Book Synopsis Calculating Potential Growth Rates and Output Gaps by : Cécile Denis
Download or read book Calculating Potential Growth Rates and Output Gaps written by Cécile Denis and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Any meaningful analysis of cyclical developments, of medium term growth prospects or of the stance of fiscal and monetary policies are all predicated on either an implicit or explicit assumption concerning the rate of potential output growth. Given the importance of the concept, the measurement of potential output is the subject of contentious and sustained research interest. All the available methods have "pros" and "cons" and none can unequivocally be declared better than the alternatives in all cases. Thus, what matters is to have a method adapted to the problem under analysis, with well defined limits and, in international comparisons, one that deals identically with all countries. This is the approach adopted in the present paper where it is stated clearly that the objective is to produce an economics based, production function, method which can be used for operational EU policy surveillance purposes.
Book Synopsis The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates and Output Gaps by :
Download or read book The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates and Output Gaps written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps by : Karel Havik
Download or read book The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps written by Karel Havik and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a detailed description of the current version of the Ecofin Council approved production function (PF) methodology which is used for assessing both the productive capacity (i.e. potential output) and cyclical position (i.e. output gaps) of EU economies. Compared with the previous 2010 paper on the same topic, there have been two significant changes to the PF methodology, namely an overhaul of the NAWRU methodology & the introduction of a new T+10 methodology.
Book Synopsis The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps by : Karel Havik
Download or read book The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps written by Karel Havik and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper provides a detailed description of the current version of the Ecofin Council approved production function (PF) methodology which is used for assessing both the productive capacity (i.e. potential output) and cyclical position (i.e. output gaps) of EU economies. Compared with the previous 2010 paper on the same topic, there have been two significant changes to the PF methodology, namely an overhaul of the NAWRU methodology & the introduction of a new T+10 methodology."--Document home page.
Book Synopsis Production Function Approach to Calculating Potential Growth and Output Gaps by : Cecile Denis
Download or read book Production Function Approach to Calculating Potential Growth and Output Gaps written by Cecile Denis and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States by : Ali Alichi
Download or read book A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.
Book Synopsis Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we find that the financial crisis has resulted in a reduction in potential output.
Book Synopsis Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? by : Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Book Synopsis Projecting Potential Output by : Sebastian Hauptmeier
Download or read book Projecting Potential Output written by Sebastian Hauptmeier and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-03-20 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well as in economic policy debates, the historical background and the assumptions inherent to this concept are rarely made transparent, let alone critically questioned. Against this background this book sets out to determine the extent to which the concept of potential output rests on clearly defined theoretical foundations and how far prevailing empirical quantification methods really provide reliable insights into potential output growth of an economy. In addition, the authors examine alternative methods for a forward-looking assessment of potential output growth.
Book Synopsis Alternative Methodologies for Measuring Kenya's Potential Output and Output Gap by : Angelica E. Njuguna
Download or read book Alternative Methodologies for Measuring Kenya's Potential Output and Output Gap written by Angelica E. Njuguna and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? by : Mr.Alvar Kangur
Download or read book How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? written by Mr.Alvar Kangur and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
Book Synopsis GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico by : Ebrima Faal
Download or read book GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico written by Ebrima Faal and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the sources of Mexico's economic growth since the 1960s and compares various decompositions of historical growth into its trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflationary process is then assessed. Looking ahead, the paper presents medium-term paths for GDP based on alternative assumptions for productivity growth rates. The results indicate that the most important factor underlying the slowdown in output growth was a decline in trend total factor productivity growth. Economic policy reforms and the introduction of NAFTA may have raised trend productivity growth in recent years. Further increases in productivity growth would appear necessary, however, to raise medium-term growth.
Book Synopsis Potential Output by : Kieran McMorrow
Download or read book Potential Output written by Kieran McMorrow and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recoge: Introductory remarks - Section 1: Measurement of potential output: Statistical V economic approaches - Section 2: Potential output and output gap estimates for EU15 and US: HP filter production function approaches - Section 3: "New" Economy effects on potential growth: Comparison of US and EU15 performances - Secction 4: EU15 and US potential growth scnarios for the period 2001-2010 - Annexes.
Book Synopsis Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy by : Ali Alichi
Download or read book Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.
Book Synopsis Calculating Potential Growth Rates and Outpur Gaps by :
Download or read book Calculating Potential Growth Rates and Outpur Gaps written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 105 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recoge: Introductory remarks. - Section 1: Calculating potential growth rates using a production function approach: Overview of key features / Recent modifications. - Section 2: Modifications of the NAIRU methodology. - Section 3: Total factor porductivity (TFP): choice of specification for calculating medium-term TFP trends. - Concluding remarks. - References. - Annexes.
Book Synopsis Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap by : Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap written by Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-03 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and to allow an assessment of the stance of macroeconomic policies. The paper then compares results from some of these methods to the case of Sweden, showing the range of estimates.
Book Synopsis Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-zone by : Odile Chagny
Download or read book Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-zone written by Odile Chagny and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
