Global Business Cycles

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451870019
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Business Cycles by : Mr.Ayhan Kose

Download or read book Global Business Cycles written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-06-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475523599
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization by : Mr.Romain A Duval

Download or read book Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization written by Mr.Romain A Duval and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-03 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.

Hysteresis and Business Cycles

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 052144019X
Total Pages : 406 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (214 download)

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Book Synopsis Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union by : Francisco Torres

Download or read book Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union written by Francisco Torres and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1993-10-21 with total page 406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Maastricht Treaty, signed in December 1991, set a timetable for the European Community's economic and monetary union (EMU) and clearly defined the institutional policy changes necessary for its achievement. Subsequent developments have demonstrated, however, the importance of many key issues in the transition to EMU that were largely neglected at the time. This volume reports the proceedings of a joint CEPR conference with the Banco de Portugal, held in January 1992. In these papers, leading international experts address the instability of the transition to EMU, the long-run implications of monetary union and the single market for growth and convergence in Europe. They also consider the prospects for inflation and fiscal convergence, regional policy and the integration of financial markets and fiscal systems. Attention focuses on adjustment mechanisms with differentiated shocks, region-specific business cycles and excessive industrial concentration and the cases for a two-speed EMU and fiscal federalism.

Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484338499
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart? by : Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks

Download or read book Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart? written by Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-23 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.

Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9783540219170
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (191 download)

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Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy by : Horst Siebert

Download or read book Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy written by Horst Siebert and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2004-08-02 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The integration of goods and financial markets has progressed on a global scale in recent years. Thus, the cyclical patterns in the world economy may have changed too. Against this background, experts in international economics analyze the synchronization of business cycles and their volatility in this book. Is there an European business cycle? What is the role of multinational corporations and monetary policy in transmitting business cycles? Further, they discuss the need and feasibility of internationally coordinating monetary and exchange rate policies and the quantitative effects of tax competition.

Meta-regression Analysis in Economics and Business

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 0415670780
Total Pages : 202 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (156 download)

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Book Synopsis Meta-regression Analysis in Economics and Business by : T. D. Stanley

Download or read book Meta-regression Analysis in Economics and Business written by T. D. Stanley and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Meta-Regression Analysis in Economics and Business is the first text devoted to the meta-regression analysis (MRA) of economics and business research.

European Business Cycle Convergence

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Publisher : Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften
ISBN 13 : 9783631639740
Total Pages : 218 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (397 download)

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Book Synopsis European Business Cycle Convergence by : Jennifer Schneider

Download or read book European Business Cycle Convergence written by Jennifer Schneider and published by Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften. This book was released on 2013 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is the euro area getting closer with regard to business cycles? The study investigates the linkage between business cycle convergence and financial portfolio choice for a panel of 18 European countries. For this purpose an index is constructed which measures the similarity of investment portfolios. The idea is that financial portfolio choice has an impact on business cycles and contributes to convergence via the consumption-wealth linkage. The background of the analysis is the International Asset Pricing Model (IAPM). The results of fixed effects GMM TSLS estimations confirm the linkage. The effect is higher for country-pairs that are built by one euro area member and one member outside the euro area.

Benchmark Priors Revisited:on Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451917716
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Benchmark Priors Revisited:on Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging by : Martin Feldkircher

Download or read book Benchmark Priors Revisited:on Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging written by Martin Feldkircher and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-09-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Default prior choices fixing Zellner''s g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and proposes to address it by a hyper-g prior, whose data-dependent shrinkage adapts posterior model distributions to data quality. Analytically, existing work on the hyper-g-prior is complemented by posterior expressions essential to fully Bayesian analysis and to sound numerical implementation. A simulation experiment illustrates the implications for posterior inference. Furthermore, an application to determinants of economic growth identifies several covariates whose robustness differs considerably from previous results.

Network Models in Economics and Finance

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319096834
Total Pages : 305 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Network Models in Economics and Finance by : Valery A. Kalyagin

Download or read book Network Models in Economics and Finance written by Valery A. Kalyagin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-09-23 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using network models to investigate the interconnectivity in modern economic systems allows researchers to better understand and explain some economic phenomena. This volume presents contributions by known experts and active researchers in economic and financial network modeling. Readers are provided with an understanding of the latest advances in network analysis as applied to economics, finance, corporate governance, and investments. Moreover, recent advances in market network analysis that focus on influential techniques for market graph analysis are also examined. Young researchers will find this volume particularly useful in facilitating their introduction to this new and fascinating field. Professionals in economics, financial management, various technologies, and network analysis, will find the network models presented in this book beneficial in analyzing the interconnectivity in modern economic systems.

Policy Issues in the Operation of Currency Unions

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521434553
Total Pages : 340 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (345 download)

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Book Synopsis Policy Issues in the Operation of Currency Unions by : Paul R. Masson

Download or read book Policy Issues in the Operation of Currency Unions written by Paul R. Masson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1993-09-23 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An overview and the latest research on single currency areas in Europe, the US, and the former USSR.

European Monetary Unification

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Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262050548
Total Pages : 374 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (55 download)

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Book Synopsis European Monetary Unification by : Barry J. Eichengreen

Download or read book European Monetary Unification written by Barry J. Eichengreen and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether EMU is feasible & desirable is contested among economists and politicians alike. The author of this text argues that the effects of monetary unification will depend on how it is structured & governed, & how quickly Europe's markets adapt.

Currency Unions

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Publisher : Hoover Institution Press
ISBN 13 : 0817928464
Total Pages : 99 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (179 download)

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Book Synopsis Currency Unions by : Alberto Alesina

Download or read book Currency Unions written by Alberto Alesina and published by Hoover Institution Press. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Currency Unions reviews the traditional case for flexible exchange rates and "countercyclical"—that is, expansionary during recessions and contractionary in booms—monetary policy, and shows how flexible exchange rate regimes can better insulate the economy from such real disturbances as terms-of-trade shocks. The book also looks at the pitfalls of flexible exchange rates—and why fixed rates, particularly full dollarization—might be a more sensible choice for some emerging-market countries. The contributors also detail the factors that determine the optimal sizes of currency unions, explain how currency union greatly expands the volume of international trade among its members, and examine the recent implementation of dollarization in Ecuador.

What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451871325
Total Pages : 77 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts? by : Mr.Ayhan Kose

Download or read book What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts? written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-12-01 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit contraction (crunch) episodes, 114 (28) episodes of house price declines (busts), 234 (58) episodes of equity price declines (busts) and their various overlaps in these countries over the sample period. Our results indicate that interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play major roles in determining the severity and duration of recessions. Specifically, we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions. JEL Classification Numbers: E32; E44; E51; F42

Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400866278
Total Pages : 295 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle by : Jordi Galí

Download or read book Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle written by Jordi Galí and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-06-09 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The classic introduction to the New Keynesian economic model This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. A backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models under development at major central banks and international policy institutions, the framework provides the theoretical underpinnings for the price stability–oriented strategies adopted by most central banks in the industrialized world. Using a canonical version of the New Keynesian model as a reference, Jordi Galí explores various issues pertaining to monetary policy's design, including optimal monetary policy and the desirability of simple policy rules. He analyzes several extensions of the baseline model, allowing for cost-push shocks, nominal wage rigidities, and open economy factors. In each case, the effects on monetary policy are addressed, with emphasis on the desirability of inflation-targeting policies. New material includes the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and an analysis of unemployment’s significance for monetary policy. The most up-to-date introduction to the New Keynesian framework available A single benchmark model used throughout New materials and exercises included An ideal resource for graduate students, researchers, and market analysts

The European Central Bank

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Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262262452
Total Pages : 277 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (622 download)

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Book Synopsis The European Central Bank by : Jakob De Haan

Download or read book The European Central Bank written by Jakob De Haan and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2005-04-15 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of the debates on European Central Bank monetary policy, focusing on issues of transparency, credibility, and accountability and the effect of the ECB's decentralized structure. The adoption of the euro in 1999 by 11 member states of the European Union created a single currency area second in economic size only to the United States. The euro zone's monetary policy is now set by the European Central Bank (ECB) and its Governing Council rather than by individual national central banks. This CESifo volume examines issues that have arisen in the first years of ECB monetary policy and analyzes the effect that current ECB policy strategy and structures may have in the future. After a detailed description and assessment of ECB monetary policy making that focuses on such issues as price stability and the predictability of policy decisions, the book turns to two important issues faced by European central bankers: the transparency and credibility of decision making and the ECB's decentralized structure. After showing that transparency in decision making enhances credibility, the book discusses the ECB's efforts at openness, its political independence as guaranteed by law, and its ultimate accountability. The book then considers the effects of the decentralized ECB structure, focusing on business cycle synchronization, inflation differentials, and differences in monetary policy transmission in light of the enlargement of the monetary union. The book also discusses options for ECB institutional reforms, including centralization, vote weighting, and cross-border regional banks.

World Business Cycles

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Author :
Publisher : Economist Newspaper Limited
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 198 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis World Business Cycles by : Economist Newspaper Limited

Download or read book World Business Cycles written by Economist Newspaper Limited and published by Economist Newspaper Limited. This book was released on 1982 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: