Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475523599
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization by : Mr.Romain A Duval

Download or read book Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization written by Mr.Romain A Duval and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-03 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.

Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe by : Kwan-ho Sin

Download or read book Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe written by Kwan-ho Sin and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3790828556
Total Pages : 197 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (98 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration by : Marcus Kappler

Download or read book Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration written by Marcus Kappler and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-07-30 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.

Business Cycles Syncronaziation in Europe

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Publisher : GRIN Verlag
ISBN 13 : 3656443033
Total Pages : 15 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (564 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycles Syncronaziation in Europe by : Silvia Palasca

Download or read book Business Cycles Syncronaziation in Europe written by Silvia Palasca and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2013-06-05 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essay from the year 2013 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, language: English, abstract: The European Union sets the premises for the appearance of a new phenomenon in the global economic setting: the synchronization of the national business cycles. The aim of this article is to statistically prove the existence of a Euro are business cycle through the study of a classic indicator- the annual change of the GDP and also through the use of foreign trade indicators-the annual changes in exports in imports. Also, it is important, at the end, to choose the best of these indicators or a combination thereof to use as a benchmark for further studies. The empiric study is useful to classify the European countries in clusters according to synchronization, a first step in adopting common policies.

Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe by : U. Michael Bergman

Download or read book Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe written by U. Michael Bergman and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Global Business Cycles

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451870019
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Business Cycles by : Mr.Ayhan Kose

Download or read book Global Business Cycles written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-06-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (126 download)

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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe by : Roman Mestre

Download or read book Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe written by Roman Mestre and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Regional Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe?

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (953 download)

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Book Synopsis Regional Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe? by :

Download or read book Regional Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe? written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Business cycle synchronization in Europe

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789052131818
Total Pages : 71 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Business cycle synchronization in Europe by : Marc Pooters

Download or read book Business cycle synchronization in Europe written by Marc Pooters and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (249 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU by : Zsolt M. Darvas

Download or read book Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU written by Zsolt M. Darvas and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

International Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization in Poland, the European Union and the Euro Zone

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis International Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization in Poland, the European Union and the Euro Zone by : Piotr Misztal

Download or read book International Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization in Poland, the European Union and the Euro Zone written by Piotr Misztal and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The analysis of business cycle synchronization levels has become a key point in the discussion of the processes of international economic integration. Economists show a particular interest in analyzing the frequency of processes of business cycle convergence and divergence (decoupling) in the European Union, especially in the Euro Zone. One of the factors determining business cycle convergence in economies is the intensity and structure of international trade. The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence exerted by international trade over the synchronization of business cycles in Poland, the European Union and the Euro Zone from 1995 to 2011. The analytical methods employed here encompass a review of the literature on macroeconomics and international finance, as well as econometric models (such as the Vector Autoregression Model). The results of empirical research indicate that an increase in trade turnover does not necessarily lead to greater business cycle synchronization in the economies under analysis. In fact, the impact of an increase in countries' turnover on the synchronization of their business cycles depends predominantly on the structure of trade turnover and not solely on the intensity of trade.

Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization?

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513566431
Total Pages : 55 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization? by : Eric Monnet

Download or read book Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization? written by Eric Monnet and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-08 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the strength of business cycle synchronization between 1950 and 2014 in a sample of 21 countries using a new quarterly dataset based on IMF archival data. Contrary to the common wisdom, we find that the globalization period is not associated with more output synchronization at the global level. The world business cycle was as strong during Bretton Woods (1950-1971) than during the Globalization period (1984-2006). Although globalization did not affect the average level of co-movement, trade and financial integration strongly affect the way countries co-move with the rest of the world. We find that financial integration de-synchronizes national outputs from the world cycle, although the magnitude of this effect depends crucially on the type of shocks hitting the world economy. This de-synchronizing effect has offset the synchronizing impact of other forces, such as increased trade integration.

Financial Linkages and Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (117 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Linkages and Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization by : Hannes Boehm

Download or read book Financial Linkages and Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization written by Hannes Boehm and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze whether financial integration between countries leads to converging or diverging business cycles using a dynamic spatial model. Our model allows for contemporaneous spillovers of shocks to GDP growth between countries that are financially integrated and delivers a scalar measure of the spillover intensity at each point in time. For a financial network of ten European countries from 1996-2017, we find that the spillover effects are positive on average but much larger during periods of financial stress, pointing towards stronger business cycle synchronization. Dismantling GDP growth into value added growth of ten major industries, we observe that some sectors are strongly affected by positive spillovers (wholesale & retail trade, industrial production), others only to a weaker degree (agriculture, construction, finance), while more nationally influenced industries show no evidence for significant spillover effects (public administration, arts & entertainment, real estate).

Hysteresis and Business Cycles

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Business Cycle Synchronization Between Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycle Synchronization Between Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries by : Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez

Download or read book Business Cycle Synchronization Between Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries written by Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the degree of co-movements in real macroeconomic aggregates across selected euro area and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries applying a multi-factor model. Our results suggest that the evolution of the global European factor matches well the narrative of main economic events between 1995 and 2011, capturing among others the recession during the recent global financial and economic crisis. This factor plays a central role in explaining real output growth variability in euro area and is negligible in CEE countries. Furthermore, using Markov switching models and concordance indices, we shed light on an increase in business cycle synchronization, with the degree of concordance between country-specific and European business cycles being high.

A Fresh Look at Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Euro Area

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis A Fresh Look at Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Euro Area by : Christian Gayer

Download or read book A Fresh Look at Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Euro Area written by Christian Gayer and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Business Cycle Synchronization and Insurance Mechanisms in the EU

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (229 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycle Synchronization and Insurance Mechanisms in the EU by : António Afonso

Download or read book Business Cycle Synchronization and Insurance Mechanisms in the EU written by António Afonso and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we provide a positive exercise on past business-cycle correlations and risk sharing in the European Union, and on the ability of insurance mechanisms and fiscal policies to smooth income fluctuations. The results suggest in particular that while some ofthe new Member States have well synchronized business cycles, for some of the other countries, business cycles are not yet well synchronized with the euro area's business cycle, and risk-sharing mechanisms may not provide enough insurance against shocks.