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Business Cycle Synchronicity Within Ecowas
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Book Synopsis Business Cycle Synchronicity Within ECOWAS by : Olivier Habimana
Download or read book Business Cycle Synchronicity Within ECOWAS written by Olivier Habimana and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the extent to which business cycles of 15 ECOWAS countries are synchronized; which is one of the indicators of an optimum currency area. We employ wavelet tools to compute business cycle similarities and the distance matrix. Wavelet-spectra clustering indicates that Gambia, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali (we give this group the acronym GSLIM) business cycles are dissimilar to the rest of the ECOWAS. These four countries count only three percent of total ECOWAS gross domestic product (GDP) and will very likely form the Eco-periphery within the West African Monetary Zone. The Eco-core group, however, is not very homogenous as it consists of three synchronized groups led, in terms of size, by Nigeria, Ghana and Burkina Faso respectively. Core-periphery patterns present a challenge to the success of a monetary union, because, if ECOWAS countries decide to launch the ECO and thus implement a common monetary policy, countries that form the periphery group may not optimally benefit from this monetary union. This challenge is however not insurmountable; ECO countries will need to put in place risk-sharing mechanisms that will help asynchronous countries to reduce the cost of giving up their monetary policy tools.
Book Synopsis Monetary Union in West Africa and Business Cycles Synchronicity by : Daniel Simons
Download or read book Monetary Union in West Africa and Business Cycles Synchronicity written by Daniel Simons and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the light of the initiative of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) to introduce a common currency by 2020, this paper investigates the intricacies of the business cycles synchronicity among the six countries. Given: (i) the rising importance of trade and cooperation with China; (ii) the consideration of the Euro as a potential anchor currency and a vehicle for trade with the Eurozone; and (iii) the importance of Nigeria as the largest country of the group and the main supplier of oil, we investigate the relative importance of these three major players in having their business cycles linked with the group. In addition, we investigate the underlying determinants of the business cycles synchronicity among the WAMZ countries on a pairwise basis. Results show a clear dominance of China's business cycle synchronicity with the WAMZ over Europe's and Nigeria's. Trade integration emerges as the key underlying factor of the common cycle observed.
Book Synopsis Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronicity in Africa by : S. Jules-Armand Tapsoba
Download or read book Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronicity in Africa written by S. Jules-Armand Tapsoba and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Business cycle synchronicity, which is the key requirement for sharing a common currency, is not particularly strong within the prospective African monetary unions. However, this parameter is not irrevocably fixed and may be endogeneous vis-agrave;-vis the integration process. For example, trade may increase the similarity of economic disturbances. This paper tests such an effect among the 53 African countries from 1965 to 2004. The estimated results suggest that trade intensity increases the synchronisation of business cycles in the African context. The magnitude of the lsquo;endogeneity effect' is, however, smaller than similar estimates among industrial countries.
Book Synopsis How Feasible is the ECO Currency? by : Youssef El Jai
Download or read book How Feasible is the ECO Currency? written by Youssef El Jai and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Business Cycle Synchronisation in the ECOWAS Region by : Ngozi Egbuna
Download or read book Business Cycle Synchronisation in the ECOWAS Region written by Ngozi Egbuna and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) are heterogeneous, characterized by marked differences in production and export structures, divergent levels of inflation rates and fiscal positions. These features suggest that there is a greater tendency for the transmission of asymmetric shocks across member countries in the ECOWAS region. Understanding how well business cycles are synchronised between member countries is extremely important in designing appropriate policy responses to facilitate the launch of the single currency and reduce the cost of joining the proposed ECOWAS monetary union. This study undertakes a time-varying assessment of the degree of synchronisation of business cycles among ECOWAS member countries and analyses the role of bilateral trade, financial integration, and convergence in fiscal and monetary policy in achieving more synchronised business cycles in the region. Using the Hausman-Taylor and Error Components panel two-stage least squares (EC-2SLS) estimation techniques over the period 2001 - 2018, this study finds that well-coordinated policy responses such as the strengthening of trade linkages, convergence in fiscal policy and strong financial linkages would foster more closely synchronised business cycles across the region. Thus, measures to promote the synchronisation of business cycles and ensure the sustainable adoption of a single currency should focus not only on satisfying the macroeconomic convergence criteria, but also enhance trade and financial integration to foster broader policy coordination among countries in the region.
Book Synopsis Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Ecowas Region by : Ngozi E. Egbuna
Download or read book Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Ecowas Region written by Ngozi E. Egbuna and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) are heterogeneous, characterized by marked differences in production and export structures, divergent levels of inflation rates and fiscal positions. These features suggest that there is a greater tendency for the transmission of asymmetric shocks across member countries in the ECOWAS region. Understanding how well business cycles are synchronised between member countries is extremely important in designing appropriate policy responses to facilitate the launch of the single currency and reduce the cost of joining the proposed ECOWAS monetary union. This study undertakes a time-varying assessment of the degree of synchronisation of business cycles among ECOWAS member countries and analyses the role of bilateral trade, financial integration, and convergence in fiscal and monetary policy in achieving more synchronised business cycles in the region. Using the Hausman-Taylor and Error Components panel two-stage least squares (EC-2SLS) estimation techniques over the period 2001 - 2018, this study finds that well-coordinated policy responses such as the strengthening of trade linkages, convergence in fiscal policy and strong financial linkages would foster more closely synchronised business cycles across the region. Thus, measures to promote the synchronisation of business cycles and ensure the sustainable adoption of a single currency should focus not only on satisfying the macroeconomic convergence criteria, but also enhance trade and financial integration to foster broader policy coordination among countries in the region.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles, Bilateral Trade and Financial Integration by : STEPHANE. ZOURI
Download or read book Business Cycles, Bilateral Trade and Financial Integration written by STEPHANE. ZOURI and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper identifies the determinants of synchronization of business cycles in ECOWAS because it allows decision-makers to better target their economic policies. It is relevant given the willingness of ECOWAS heads of state to create a single currency in 2020. Indeed, conducting actions in the direction of the synchronization of business cycles is important because the asymmetries of cycles observed within monetary union determine its sustainability. Unlike previous studies in this area, it is innovative as it takes into account financial linkages. In addition, it proposes new measures to increase the quality of results. Moreover, this paper takes into account the structure of trade by analyzing inter-regional links. Finally, in order to highlight the role of single currency in ECOWAS, it compares West African Economic and Monetary Union and the non-monetary zone within ECOWAS zone. We find that bilateral trade and financial integration are determinants of the synchronization of business cycles in the region. However, we find that regional financial integration channel dominates international financial integration channel. In addition, we find that the weakness of intracommunity trade doesn't constitute a barrier to monetary union. Finally we find that single currency increases the synchronization of business cycles through bilateral trade.
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Integration in West Africa by : Diery Seck
Download or read book Regional Economic Integration in West Africa written by Diery Seck and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-18 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a number of key studies pertaining to the most pressing challenges of economic regional integration in West Africa. The issues of monetary coordination, foreign exchange volatility, taxation, savings and macroeconomic convergence are investigated from a regional perspective. The characteristics of West Africa’s trade policy are reviewed and assessed in comparison to that of the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The extent to which regional integration can tackle the challenge of unemployment is the focus of studies on labour markets. Development of the private sector and coordination of regional cross-border transportation are examined through the lens of economic collaboration between Arab and African countries. The book provides fresh new answers to persistent development questions and sheds new light on long-held views that are either incomplete or no longer true. It also opens new perspectives on the search for sustainable avenues for Africa’s development. In this regard, it may contribute to the emergence of a new paradigm on Africa’s development process and its science-based, policy-oriented implementation.
Book Synopsis Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization by : Mr.Romain A Duval
Download or read book Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization written by Mr.Romain A Duval and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-03 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.
Book Synopsis Optimum Currency Areas: Is Southern Africa ready to form a Monetary Union? by : Christian Sorgenfrei
Download or read book Optimum Currency Areas: Is Southern Africa ready to form a Monetary Union? written by Christian Sorgenfrei and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 2010-11-18 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inhaltsangabe:Introduction and Course of Work: In 2007, at their meeting in Tanzania, the central bank governors of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) laid out a strategy to strengthen regional integration, containing the development of a common market by 2015, fixed exchange rates by 2016, and, ultimately, a monetary union with a single currency in 2018. In pursuit of this agenda, a free trade area absent of intra-regional tariffs was arranged in August 2008 with a regional customs union to follow this year. The currently fourteen member countries of the SADC committed themselves towards achieving economic convergence and to deepen monetary cooperation. In the 21st century, Africa finds itself increasingly separated from economic developments in the remaining world and fails to prosper from increased globalization. Despite a large abundance in natural resources, many countries have suffered from an extremely poor economic performance, which mainly originated from internal strives and weak and distortionary policies. Inward looking governments, conducting clientele policies, are focused on reaping economic rents rather than on fostering growth. Furthermore, tribal conflicts and civil war have sparked recurring border conflicts with neighboring countries. Although Africa has seen a large number of regional arrangements and trading blocs throughout the continent, the overall success for growth and trade expansion was limited. Against this background, the formation of a monetary union is believed to counteract economic and political weaknesses, to improve regional cooperation and to enhance both the political and economic standing in the world. A monetary union and a common currency entails both gains and losses for its members. On the cost side, countries in a monetary union effectively loose the ability to pursue independent monetary policies and to use the exchange rate as adjustment instrument to stabilize the economy. On the other hand, countries inside a monetary union benefit from reduced transaction costs and the elimination of internal exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, countries which suffer from weak internal stability and high inflation rates benefit by using the fixed exchange rate in a monetary union as external anchor. By transferring the power over monetary policy to a supranational central bank, the risk of homegrown inflation and currency devaluations is banished and economic agents are able to borrow at more [...]
Book Synopsis Optimum Currency Areas: A Monetary Union for Southern Africa by : Christian Sorgenfrei
Download or read book Optimum Currency Areas: A Monetary Union for Southern Africa written by Christian Sorgenfrei and published by Diplomica Verlag. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the current situation in the European Monetary Union in mind, a Monetary Union in other parts of the world seems highly inadvisable. Nevertheless, Africa has some of the oldest Monetary arrangements in the world, dating back to the beginning of the 19th century. Is Africa particularly qualified for a Monetary Union? And furthermore, what features are necessary to make Monetary Arrangements between countries endurable? This study evaluates the prospects and the feasibility of a monetary union in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) from an economic point of view. Both the theory of optimum currency areas and the recent example of the European Monetary Union are employed to analyze the pros and cons of monetary unification. The theoretical implications are operationalized, first, by a broad analysis of economic and socio graphic data, and second, by estimating the degree of structural shock synchronization between SADC countries. Results obtained by an Autoregressive and Vector Autoregressive model indicate that a monetary union which includes all SADC members is neither desirable nor feasible in the foreseeable future. However, the study concludes that a small subset of countries, including South Africa, Namibia, Swaziland, Lesotho, Mozambique, Botswana and Zambia, could gain from forming a smaller monetary union.
Book Synopsis Aftershocks of Monetary Unification by : Mr.Tamim Bayoumi
Download or read book Aftershocks of Monetary Unification written by Mr.Tamim Bayoumi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-13 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Once upon a time, in the 1990s, it was widely agreed that neither Europe nor the United States was an optimum currency area, although moderating this concern was the finding that it was possible to distinguish a regional core and periphery (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1993). Revisiting these issues, we find that the United States is remains closer to an optimum currency area than the Euro Area. More intriguingly, the Euro Area shows striking changes in correlations and responses which we interpret as reflecting hysteresis with a financial twist, in which the financial system causes aggregate supply and demand shocks to reinforce each other. An implication is that the Euro Area needs vigorous, coordinated regulation of its banking and financial systems by a single supervisor—that monetary union without banking union will not work.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Modelling And Monetary And Exchange Rate Regimes by : Masson Paul R
Download or read book Macroeconomic Modelling And Monetary And Exchange Rate Regimes written by Masson Paul R and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2019-07-23 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents articles that focus on the inter-related issues of choice of exchange rate and monetary policy regimes, and others that use a global macroeconomic model developed by the author and collaborators to quantify the effects of the 'baby boom' on global imbalances, costs of disinflation, and the effects of German unification. The book presents new analysis of the euro-zone experience and its applicability to other monetary unions, as well as a discussion of the prerequisites for successful inflation targeting. It is grounded in real-world data, readily accessible to non-specialists, and addresses important economic policy issues.
Book Synopsis Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart? by : Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks
Download or read book Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart? written by Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-23 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.
Book Synopsis Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy by : Matthias Kalkuhl
Download or read book Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498335179 Total Pages :188 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2014 by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2014 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-09 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the 65th issue of the AREAER. It provides a description of the foreign exchange arrangements, exchange and trade systems, and capital controls of all IMF member countries. It also provides information on the operation of foreign exchange markets and controls on international trade. It describes controls on capital transactions and measures implemented in the financial sector, including prudential measures. In addition, it reports on exchange measures imposed by member countries for security reasons. A single table provides a snapshot of the exchange and trade systems of all IMF member countries. The Overview describes in detail how the general trend toward foreign exchange liberalization continued during 2013, alongside a strengthening of the financial sector regulatory framework. A Special Topic essay examines the dynamics and evolution of capital flows. The AREAER is available in several formats. The Overview in print and online, and the detailed information for each of the 191 member countries and territories is included on a CD that accompanies the printed Overview and in an online database, AREAER Online. In addition to the information on the exchange and trade system of IMF member countries in 2013, AREAER Online contains historical data published in previous issues of the AREAER. It is searchable by year, country, and category of measure and allows cross country comparisons for time series.
Book Synopsis International Financial Integration by : Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti
Download or read book International Financial Integration written by Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-04-01 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, the foreign assets and liabilities of advanced economies have grown rapidly relative to GDP, with the increase in gross cross-holdings far exceeding changes in the size of net positions. Moreover, the portfolio equity and FDI categories have grown in importance relative to international debt stocks. This paper describes the broad trends in international financial integration for a sample of industrial countries and seeks to explain the cross-country and time-series variation in the size of international balance sheets. It also examines the behavior of the rates of return on foreign assets and liabilities, relating them to "market" returns.
