Breakthroughs In Decision Science And Risk Analysis

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Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis

Author : Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118938895
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (189 download)

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Book Synopsis Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis by : Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.

Download or read book Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis written by Louis Anthony Cox, Jr. and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis Focusing on modern advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (DA), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. The book explains these new methods and important applications in an accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science. Highlighting topics not conventionally found in DA textbooks, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science, including developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic DA paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. The book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges such as online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to explain available data and recommend actions. In addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis also includes: An emphasis on new approaches rather than only classical and traditional ideas Discussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisions Coverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management Innovative methods for deciding what actions to take when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specified Recent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligence Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. The book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management.

Science and Decisions

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309120462
Total Pages : 422 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Science and Decisions by : National Research Council

Download or read book Science and Decisions written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-03-24 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. However, risk assessment is at a crossroads. Despite advances in the field, risk assessment faces a number of significant challenges including lengthy delays in making complex decisions; lack of data leading to significant uncertainty in risk assessments; and many chemicals in the marketplace that have not been evaluated and emerging agents requiring assessment. Science and Decisions makes practical scientific and technical recommendations to address these challenges. This book is a complement to the widely used 1983 National Academies book, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government (also known as the Red Book). The earlier book established a framework for the concepts and conduct of risk assessment that has been adopted by numerous expert committees, regulatory agencies, and public health institutions. The new book embeds these concepts within a broader framework for risk-based decision-making. Together, these are essential references for those working in the regulatory and public health fields.

Advances in Decision Science and Management

Author : Taosheng Wang
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9811625026
Total Pages : 694 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (116 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Decision Science and Management by : Taosheng Wang

Download or read book Advances in Decision Science and Management written by Taosheng Wang and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-07-26 with total page 694 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses an emerging area in computer science, IT, and management, i.e., decision sciences and management. It includes studies that employ various computing techniques like machine learning to generate insights from huge amounts of available data; and which explore decision making for cross-platforms that contain heterogeneous data associated with complex assets; leadership; and team coordination. It also reveals the advantages of using decision sciences with management-oriented problems. The book includes a selection of the best papers presented at the Third International Conference on Decision Science and Management 2021 (ICDSM 2021), held at Hang Seng University of Hong Kong in China.

Advances in Decision Analysis

Author : Ward Edwards
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521863681
Total Pages : 640 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (636 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Decision Analysis by : Ward Edwards

Download or read book Advances in Decision Analysis written by Ward Edwards and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2007-07-23 with total page 640 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book reviews and extends the material typically presented in introductory texts. Not a single book covers the broad scope of decision analysis at this advanced level. It will be a valuable resource for academics and students in decision analysis as well as decision analysts and managers

Data and Decision Sciences - Recent Advances and Applications

Author :
Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN 13 : 1803562870
Total Pages : 132 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (35 download)

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Book Synopsis Data and Decision Sciences - Recent Advances and Applications by :

Download or read book Data and Decision Sciences - Recent Advances and Applications written by and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2023-10-25 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an overview of Data and Decision Sciences (DDS) and recent advances and applications in space-based systems and business, medical, and agriculture processes, decision optimization modeling, and cognitive decision-making. Written by experts, this volume is organized into four sections and seven chapters. It is a valuable resource for educators, engineers, scientists, and researchers in the field of DDS.

Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis

Author : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319782428
Total Pages : 588 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis by : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.

Download or read book Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis written by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-19 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. It discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. The book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.The book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. Chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the Causal Analytics Toolkit (CAT) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. Chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. Chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. These chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks.

Value of Information and Flexibility

Author : Martin J. Vilela
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 303086989X
Total Pages : 295 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (38 download)

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Book Synopsis Value of Information and Flexibility by : Martin J. Vilela

Download or read book Value of Information and Flexibility written by Martin J. Vilela and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-10-21 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a consistent methodology for making decisions under uncertain conditions, as is almost always the case. Tools such as value of information and value of flexibility are explored as a means to make more complex and nuanced decisions. The book develops the complete formalism for assessing the value of acquiring information with two novel approaches. Firstly, it integrates the fuzzy characteristics of data, and secondly develops a methodology for assessing data acquisition actions that optimize the value of projects from a holistic perspective. The book also discusses the formalism for including flexibility in the project decision assessment. Practical examples of oil- and gas-related decision problems are included and discussed to facilitate the learning process. This book provides valuable advice and case studies applicable to engineers, researchers, and graduate students, particularly in the oil and gas industry and pharmaceutic industry.

Advances in Decision Analysis

Author : Ward Edwards
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780511342240
Total Pages : 623 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (422 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Decision Analysis by : Ward Edwards

Download or read book Advances in Decision Analysis written by Ward Edwards and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 623 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision analysis is a prescriptive theory that aids individuals or groups confronted with complex problems in a wide variety of contexts. By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book is a mixture of historical and forward-looking essays on key topics in decision analysis. Part I covers the history and foundations of decision analysis. Part II discusses structuring decision problems, including the development of objectives and their attributes, and influence diagrams. Part III discusses probabilities and their elicitation and Bayes nets. Part IV discusses additive and multiplicative utilities, risk preferences, and 'option pricing' methods. Part V discusses risk analysis. Part VI puts decision analysis in a behavioral and organizational context. Part VII presents case studies of applications.

Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Author : Mohammed Abdellaoui
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540684379
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (46 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty by : Mohammed Abdellaoui

Download or read book Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty written by Mohammed Abdellaoui and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-09-17 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. This work also introduces the reader to the subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.

Advances in Optimization and Decision Science for Society, Services and Enterprises

Author : Massimo Paolucci
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030349608
Total Pages : 493 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Optimization and Decision Science for Society, Services and Enterprises by : Massimo Paolucci

Download or read book Advances in Optimization and Decision Science for Society, Services and Enterprises written by Massimo Paolucci and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-01-25 with total page 493 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The contributions included in the volume are drawn from presentations at ODS2019 – International Conference on Optimization and Decision Science, which was the 49th annual meeting of the Italian Operations Research Society (AIRO) held at Genoa, Italy, on 4-7 September 2019. This book presents very recent results in the field of Optimization and Decision Science. While the book is addressed primarily to the Operations Research (OR) community, the interdisciplinary contents ensure that it will also be of very high interest for scholars and researchers from many scientific disciplines, including computer sciences, economics, mathematics, and engineering. Operations Research is known as the discipline of optimization applied to real-world problems and to complex decision-making fields. The focus is on mathematical and quantitative methods aimed at determining optimal or near-optimal solutions in acceptable computation times. This volume not only presents theoretical results but also covers real industrial applications, making it interesting for practitioners facing decision problems in logistics, manufacturing production, and services. Readers will accordingly find innovative ideas from both a methodological and an applied perspective.

AI-ML for Decision and Risk Analysis

Author : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031320131
Total Pages : 443 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (313 download)

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Book Synopsis AI-ML for Decision and Risk Analysis by : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.

Download or read book AI-ML for Decision and Risk Analysis written by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-07-05 with total page 443 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains and illustrates recent developments and advances in decision-making and risk analysis. It demonstrates how artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have not only benefitted from classical decision analysis concepts such as expected utility maximization but have also contributed to making normative decision theory more useful by forcing it to confront realistic complexities. These include skill acquisition, uncertain and time-consuming implementation of intended actions, open-world uncertainties about what might happen next and what consequences actions can have, and learning to cope effectively with uncertain and changing environments. The result is a more robust and implementable technology for AI/ML-assisted decision-making. The book is intended to inform a wide audience in related applied areas and to provide a fun and stimulating resource for students, researchers, and academics in data science and AI-ML, decision analysis, and other closely linked academic fields. It will also appeal to managers, analysts, decision-makers, and policymakers in financial, health and safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management.

Advances in Multiple Criteria Decision Making and Human Systems Management: Knowledge and Wisdom

Author : Y. Shi
Publisher : IOS Press
ISBN 13 : 160750247X
Total Pages : 420 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (75 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Multiple Criteria Decision Making and Human Systems Management: Knowledge and Wisdom by : Y. Shi

Download or read book Advances in Multiple Criteria Decision Making and Human Systems Management: Knowledge and Wisdom written by Y. Shi and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2007-05-22 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume, edited as a Festschrift in honor of Prof. Milan Zeleny, reflects and emulates his unmistakable legacy: the essential multidimensionality of human and social affairs. There are many levels of this multidimensionality presented in this volume: 1. Multidisciplinarity of contributed papers 2. Multinationality of their authors, extending even to the editors and the publisher and 3. Multicultural and multilevel exposition, ranging from empirical studies to philosophical foundations. Generally, these papers can be divided into three parts: Multiple Criteria Decision Making; Social and Human System Management; and Information, Knowledge and Wisdom Management. It is the recognition of multidimensionality in decision making, economics, optimization, systems, cybernetics and the pursuit of knowledge that bear the stamp of specific Zeleny’s contributions. His life-long dedication to multidimensionality has produced an ultimate multidimensional being, living in academic ‘multiverse’, functioning in a boundaryless world of all continents, cultures and countries. This book is as diverse and as multidimensional as the man and his work.

Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management

Author : Jeffrey W. Herrmann
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118919335
Total Pages : 355 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (189 download)

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Book Synopsis Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management by : Jeffrey W. Herrmann

Download or read book Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management written by Jeffrey W. Herrmann and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-04-06 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: IIE/Joint Publishers Book of the Year Award 2016! Awarded for ‘an outstanding published book that focuses on a facet of industrial engineering, improves education, or furthers the profession’. Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management emphasizes practical issues and examples of decision making with applications in engineering design and management Featuring a blend of theoretical and analytical aspects, this book presents multiple perspectives on decision making to better understand and improve risk management processes and decision-making systems. Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management uniquely presents and discusses three perspectives on decision making: problem solving, the decision-making process, and decision-making systems. The author highlights formal techniques for group decision making and game theory and includes numerical examples to compare and contrast different quantitative techniques. The importance of initially selecting the most appropriate decision-making process is emphasized through practical examples and applications that illustrate a variety of useful processes. Presenting an approach for modeling and improving decision-making systems, Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management also features: Theoretically sound and practical tools for decision making under uncertainty, multi-criteria decision making, group decision making, the value of information, and risk management Practical examples from both historical and current events that illustrate both good and bad decision making and risk management processes End-of-chapter exercises for readers to apply specific learning objectives and practice relevant skills A supplementary website with instructional support material, including worked solutions to the exercises, lesson plans, in-class activities, slides, and spreadsheets An excellent textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate students, Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management is appropriate for courses on decision analysis, decision making, and risk management within the fields of engineering design, operations research, business and management science, and industrial and systems engineering. The book is also an ideal reference for academics and practitioners in business and management science, operations research, engineering design, systems engineering, applied mathematics, and statistics.

Advances in Econometrics, Operational Research, Data Science and Actuarial Studies

Author : M. Kenan Terzioğlu
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030852547
Total Pages : 607 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (38 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Econometrics, Operational Research, Data Science and Actuarial Studies by : M. Kenan Terzioğlu

Download or read book Advances in Econometrics, Operational Research, Data Science and Actuarial Studies written by M. Kenan Terzioğlu and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-01-17 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents techniques and theories drawn from mathematics, statistics, computer science, and information science to analyze problems in business, economics, finance, insurance, and related fields. The authors present proposals for solutions to common problems in related fields. To this end, they are showing the use of mathematical, statistical, and actuarial modeling, and concepts from data science to construct and apply appropriate models with real-life data, and employ the design and implementation of computer algorithms to evaluate decision-making processes. This book is unique as it associates data science - data-scientists coming from different backgrounds - with some basic and advanced concepts and tools used in econometrics, operational research, and actuarial sciences. It, therefore, is a must-read for scholars, students, and practitioners interested in a better understanding of the techniques and theories of these fields.

Risk in Extreme Environments

Author : Vicki M. Bier
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317029941
Total Pages : 271 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk in Extreme Environments by : Vicki M. Bier

Download or read book Risk in Extreme Environments written by Vicki M. Bier and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-10-19 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk in Extreme Environments presents a wide-ranging discussion of approaches for assessing and managing extreme risks. Extreme events are not only severe, but also outside the normal range of experience of the system in question, and can include environmental catastrophe; engineering failure; financial or business meltdown; and nuclear or other extreme terrorism. The book focuses on synthesizing research results in a way that provides insights useful to decision makers, and enables them to ask probing questions about the risks faced by their organizations, identify creative solutions, and minimize the neglect of extreme risks that can come from a focus on mundane or ordinary management challenges. The book details case studies on nuclear power, infectious diseases, and global catastrophic risks, in addition to sections on risk assessment, risk management, and risk perceptions. Since effective management benefits from an interdisciplinary perspective, the chapter authors include experts in economics, engineering, geography, law, political science, psychology, sociology, and science in addition to risk analysis. Risk in Extreme Environments is an accessible and valuable resource for risk managers and other decision makers responsible for large complex business and government decisions, while also providing enough detail and references to be informative for risk analysts interested in learning more about technical aspects of the various methods.

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making

Author : V.T. Covello
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1468453173
Total Pages : 523 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (684 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making by : V.T. Covello

Download or read book Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making written by V.T. Covello and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-08 with total page 523 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The subject of this volume--uncertainties in risk assessment and management--reflects an important theme in health, safety, and environ mental decision making. MOst technological hazards are characterized by substantial uncertainty. Recent examples include nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, asbestos in schools, carcinogens in food, and hazardous waste. realing with such uncertainty is arguably the most difficult and challeng ing task facing risk assessors and managers today. Four primary sources of uncertainty in risk assessment and management can be identified: (1) uncertainties about definitions; (2) uncertainties about scientific facts; (3) uncertainties about risk perceptions and atti tudes; and (4) uncertainties about values. Uncertainties about definitions derive primarily from disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of key concepts, such as probability. Uncertainties about scientific facts derive primarily from disagreements about failure modes, the probability and magnitude of adverse health or environmental consequences, cause and effect relationships, dose-response relationships, and exposure patterns. Uncertainties about risk perceptions and attitudes derive primarily from disagreements about what constitutes a significant or acceptable level of risk. Uncertainties about values derive primarily from disagreements about the desirability or worth of alternative risk management actions or conse quences. The papers in this volume address each of these sources of uncertainty from a variety of perspectives. Reflecting the broad scope of risk assess ment and risk management research, the papers include contributions from safety engineers, epidemiologists, toxicologists, chemists, biostatisticians, biologists, decision analysts, economists, psychologists, political scien tists, sociologists, ethicists, and lawyers.

Advances in Reliability, Failure and Risk Analysis

Author : Harish Garg
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9811999090
Total Pages : 415 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (119 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Reliability, Failure and Risk Analysis by : Harish Garg

Download or read book Advances in Reliability, Failure and Risk Analysis written by Harish Garg and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-04-08 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects select chapters on modern industrial problems related to uncertainties and vagueness in the expert domain of knowledge. The book further provides the knowledge related to application of various mathematical and statistical tools in these areas. The results presented in the book help the researchers and scientists in handling complicated projects in their domains. Useful to industrialists, academicians, researchers and students alike, the book aims to help managers and technical specialists in designing and implementation of reliability and risk programs as below: Ensure the system safety and risk informed asset management Follow a proper strategy to maintain the mechanical components of the system Schedule the proper actions throughout the product life cycle Understand the structure and cost of a complex system Plan the proper schedule to improve the reliability and life of the system Identify unwanted failures and set up preventive and correction action