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Black Swans Dragon Kings And Bayesian Risk Management
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Book Synopsis Handbook of Human Factors in Air Transportation Systems by : Steven James Landry
Download or read book Handbook of Human Factors in Air Transportation Systems written by Steven James Landry and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-11-22 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the primary applications of human factors engineering is in the aviation domain, and the importance of human factors has never been greater as U.S. and European authorities seek to modernize the air transportation system through the introduction of advanced automation. This handbook provides regulators, practitioners, researchers, and educators a comprehensive resource for understanding and applying human factors to air transportation.
Book Synopsis The Financial Crisis in Constitutional Perspective by : Poul F Kjaer
Download or read book The Financial Crisis in Constitutional Perspective written by Poul F Kjaer and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2011-07-27 with total page 431 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the first thorough sociologically-informed legal analysis of the financial crisis which unfolded in 2008. It combines a multitude of theoretically informed analyses of the causes, dynamics and reactions to the crisis and contextualises these within the general structural transformations characterising contemporary society. It furthermore explores the constitutional implications of the crisis and suggests concrete changes to the constitutional set-up of contemporary society. Although the question of individual responsibility is of crucial importance, the central idea animating the volume is that the crisis cannot be reduced to a mere failure of risk perception and management for which individual and collective actors within and outside of financial organisations are responsible. The 2008 crisis should rather be understood as a symptom of far deeper structural transformations. For example contemporary society is characterised by massive accelerations in the speed with which societal processes are reproduced as well as radical expansions in the level of globalisation. These transformations have, however, been asymmetrical in nature insofar as the economic system has outpaced its legal and political counterparts. The future capability of legal and political systems to influence economic reproduction processes is therefore conditioned by equally radical transformations of their respective operational forms and self-understanding. Potentially the 2008 crisis, therefore, has far-reaching constitutional implications.
Book Synopsis Mathematical Geoenergy by : Paul Pukite
Download or read book Mathematical Geoenergy written by Paul Pukite and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-01-07 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A rigorous mathematical problem-solving framework for analyzing the Earth’s energy resources GeoEnergy encompasses the range of energy technologies and sources that interact with the geological subsurface. Fossil fuel availability studies have historically lacked concise modeling, tending instead toward heuristics and overly-complex processes. Mathematical GeoEnergy: Oil Discovery, Depletion and Renewal details leading-edge research based on a mathematically-oriented approach to geoenergy analysis. Volume highlights include: Applies a formal mathematical framework to oil discovery, depletion, and analysis Employs first-order applied physics modeling, decreasing computational resource requirements Illustrates model interpolation and extrapolation to fill out missing or indeterminate data Covers both stochastic and deterministic mathematical processes for historical analysis and prediction Emphasizes the importance of up-to-date data, accessed through the companion website Demonstrates the advantages of mathematical modeling over conventional heuristic and empirical approaches Accurately analyzes the past and predicts the future of geoenergy depletion and renewal using models derived from observed production data Intuitive mathematical models and readily available algorithms make Mathematical GeoEnergy: Oil Discovery, Depletion and Renewal an insightful and invaluable resource for scientists and engineers using robust statistical and analytical tools applicable to oil discovery, reservoir sizing, dispersion, production models, reserve growth, and more.
Book Synopsis Natech Risk Assessment and Management by : Elisabeth Krausmann
Download or read book Natech Risk Assessment and Management written by Elisabeth Krausmann and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2016-11-01 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Natech Risk Assessment and Management: Reducing the Risk of Natural-Hazard Impact on Hazardous Installations covers the entire spectrum of issues pertinent to Natech risk assessment and management. After a thorough introduction of the topic that includes definitions of terms, authors Krausmann, Cruz, and Salzano discuss various examples of international frameworks and provide a detailed view of the implementation of Natech Risk Management in the EU and OECD. There is a dedicated chapter on natural-hazard prediction and measurement from an engineering perspective, as well as a consideration of the impact of climate change on Natech risk. The authors also discuss selected Natech accidents, including recent examples, and provide specific 'lessons learned' from each, as well as an analysis of all essential elements of Natech risk assessment, such as plant layout, substance hazards, and equipment vulnerability. The final section of the book is dedicated to the reduction of Natech risk, including structural and organizational prevention and mitigation measures, as well as early warning issues and emergency foreword planning. - Teaches chemical engineers and safety managers how to safeguard chemical processing plants and pipelines against natural disasters - Includes international regulations and explains how to conduct a natural hazards risk assessment, both of which are supported by examples and case studies - Discusses a broad range of hazards and the multidisciplinary aspects of risk assessment in a detailed and accessible style
Book Synopsis Extreme Financial Risks by : Yannick Malevergne
Download or read book Extreme Financial Risks written by Yannick Malevergne and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-01-16 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Clearly elucidates extreme financial risks associated with rare events such as financial crashes. The highlight of the book is the delineation of various copulas in conjunction with financial dependences among different assets of a portfolio. In particular, the insightful discussion on quadrant and orthant dependences casts new light on the connection between marginal models and financial dependence...brings a vivid portrayal of the subject." -- MATHEMATICAL REVIEWS
Book Synopsis Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems by : Luca Podofillini
Download or read book Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems written by Luca Podofillini and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-09-03 with total page 730 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems contains the Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015, held 7-10 September 2015 in Zurich, Switzerland. It includes about 570 papers accepted for presentation at the conference. These contributions focus on theories and methods in the area of risk, safety and
Book Synopsis Extreme Events in Nature and Society by : Sergio Albeverio
Download or read book Extreme Events in Nature and Society written by Sergio Albeverio and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-02-18 with total page 357 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Significant, and usually unwelcome, surprises, such as floods, financial crisis, epileptic seizures, or material rupture, are the topics of Extreme Events in Nature and Society. The book, authored by foremost experts in these fields, reveals unifying and distinguishing features of extreme events, including problems of understanding and modelling their origin, spatial and temporal extension, and potential impact. The chapters converge towards the difficult problem of anticipation: forecasting the event and proposing measures to moderate or prevent it. Extreme Events in Nature and Society will interest not only specialists, but also the general reader eager to learn how the multifaceted field of extreme events can be viewed as a coherent whole.
Book Synopsis Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences by : Didier Sornette
Download or read book Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences written by Didier Sornette and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A modern up-to-date introduction for readers outside statistical physics. It puts emphasis on a clear understanding of concepts and methods and provides the tools that can be of immediate use in applications.
Book Synopsis Lake Pavin by : Télesphore Sime-Ngando
Download or read book Lake Pavin written by Télesphore Sime-Ngando and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-31 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book represents the first multidisciplinary scientific work on a deep volcanic maar lake in comparison with other similar temperate lakes. The syntheses of the main characteristics of Lake Pavin are, for the first time, set in a firmer footing comparative approach, encompassing regional, national, European and international aquatic science contexts. It is a unique lake because of its permanently anoxic monimolimnion, and furthermore, because of its small surface area, its substantially low human influence, and by the fact that it does not have a river inflow. The book reflects the scientific research done on the general limnology, history, origin, volcanology and geological environment as well as on the geochemistry and biogeochemical cycles. Other chapters focus on the biology and microbial ecology whereas the sedimentology and paleolimnology are also given attention. This volume will be of special interest to researchers and advanced students, primarily in the fields of limnology, biogeochemistry, and aquatic ecology.
Book Synopsis Resilience and Risk by : Igor Linkov
Download or read book Resilience and Risk written by Igor Linkov and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-08-01 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume addresses the challenges associated with methodology and application of risk and resilience science and practice to address emerging threats in environmental, cyber, infrastructure and other domains. The book utilizes the collective expertise of scholars and experts in industry, government and academia in the new and emerging field of resilience in order to provide a more comprehensive and universal understanding of how resilience methodology can be applied in various disciplines and applications. This book advocates for a systems-driven view of resilience in applications ranging from cyber security to ecology to social action, and addresses resilience-based management in infrastructure, cyber, social domains and methodology and tools. Risk and Resilience has been written to open up a transparent dialog on resilience management for scientists and practitioners in all relevant academic disciplines and can be used as supplement in teaching risk assessment and management courses.
Book Synopsis Bayesian Methods in Finance by : Svetlozar T. Rachev
Download or read book Bayesian Methods in Finance written by Svetlozar T. Rachev and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-02-13 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Methods in Finance provides a detailed overview of the theory of Bayesian methods and explains their real-world applications to financial modeling. While the principles and concepts explained throughout the book can be used in financial modeling and decision making in general, the authors focus on portfolio management and market risk management—since these are the areas in finance where Bayesian methods have had the greatest penetration to date.
Book Synopsis Using Surveys to Value Public Goods by : Robert Cameron Mitchell
Download or read book Using Surveys to Value Public Goods written by Robert Cameron Mitchell and published by Resources for the Future. This book was released on 1989 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides decision makers, policy analysts, and social scientists, with a detailed discussion of a new techniques for the valuation of goods not traded in prevate markets.
Book Synopsis Understanding Philosophy of Science by : James Ladyman
Download or read book Understanding Philosophy of Science written by James Ladyman and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-08-06 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Few can imagine a world without telephones or televisions; many depend on computers and the Internet as part of daily life. Without scientific theory, these developments would not have been possible. In this exceptionally clear and engaging introduction to philosophy of science, James Ladyman explores the philosophical questions that arise when we reflect on the nature of the scientific method and the knowledge it produces. He discusses whether fundamental philosophical questions about knowledge and reality might be answered by science, and considers in detail the debate between realists and antirealists about the extent of scientific knowledge. Along the way, central topics in philosophy of science, such as the demarcation of science from non-science, induction, confirmation and falsification, the relationship between theory and observation and relativism are all addressed. Important and complex current debates over underdetermination, inference to the best explaination and the implications of radical theory change are clarified and clearly explained for those new to the subject.
Book Synopsis The Democratization of Artificial Intelligence by : Andreas Sudmann
Download or read book The Democratization of Artificial Intelligence written by Andreas Sudmann and published by transcript Verlag. This book was released on 2019-10-31 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After a long time of neglect, Artificial Intelligence is once again at the center of most of our political, economic, and socio-cultural debates. Recent advances in the field of Artifical Neural Networks have led to a renaissance of dystopian and utopian speculations on an AI-rendered future. Algorithmic technologies are deployed for identifying potential terrorists through vast surveillance networks, for producing sentencing guidelines and recidivism risk profiles in criminal justice systems, for demographic and psychographic targeting of bodies for advertising or propaganda, and more generally for automating the analysis of language, text, and images. Against this background, the aim of this book is to discuss the heterogenous conditions, implications, and effects of modern AI and Internet technologies in terms of their political dimension: What does it mean to critically investigate efforts of net politics in the age of machine learning algorithms?
Book Synopsis Theory of Zipf's Law and Beyond by : Alexander I. Saichev
Download or read book Theory of Zipf's Law and Beyond written by Alexander I. Saichev and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-11-04 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Zipf’s law is one of the few quantitative reproducible regularities found in e- nomics. It states that, for most countries, the size distributions of cities and of rms (with additional examples found in many other scienti c elds) are power laws with a speci c exponent: the number of cities and rms with a size greater thanS is inversely proportional toS. Most explanations start with Gibrat’s law of proportional growth but need to incorporate additional constraints and ingredients introducing deviations from it. Here, we present a general theoretical derivation of Zipf’s law, providing a synthesis and extension of previous approaches. First, we show that combining Gibrat’s law at all rm levels with random processes of rm’s births and deaths yield Zipf’s law under a “balance” condition between a rm’s growth and death rate. We nd that Gibrat’s law of proportionate growth does not need to be strictly satis ed. As long as the volatility of rms’ sizes increase asy- totically proportionally to the size of the rm and that the instantaneous growth rate increases not faster than the volatility, the distribution of rm sizes follows Zipf’s law. This suggests that the occurrence of very large rms in the distri- tion of rm sizes described by Zipf’s law is more a consequence of random growth than systematic returns: in particular, for large rms, volatility must dominate over the instantaneous growth rate.
Book Synopsis Why Stock Markets Crash by : Didier Sornette
Download or read book Why Stock Markets Crash written by Didier Sornette and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-03-21 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.
Book Synopsis Big Farms Make Big Flu by : Rob Wallace
Download or read book Big Farms Make Big Flu written by Rob Wallace and published by NYU Press. This book was released on 2016-06-30 with total page 457 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first collection to explore infectious disease, agriculture, economics, and the nature of science together Thanks to breakthroughs in production and food science, agribusiness has been able to devise new ways to grow more food and get it more places more quickly. There is no shortage of news items on hundreds of thousands of hybrid poultry—each animal genetically identical to the next—packed together in megabarns, grown out in a matter of months, then slaughtered, processed and shipped to the other side of the globe. Less well known are the deadly pathogens mutating in, and emerging out of, these specialized agro-environments. In fact, many of the most dangerous new diseases in humans can be traced back to such food systems, among them Campylobacter, Nipah virus, Q fever, hepatitis E, and a variety of novel influenza variants. Agribusiness has known for decades that packing thousands of birds or livestock together results in a monoculture that selects for such disease. But market economics doesn't punish the companies for growing Big Flu—it punishes animals, the environment, consumers, and contract farmers. Alongside growing profits, diseases are permitted to emerge, evolve, and spread with little check. “That is,” writes evolutionary biologist Rob Wallace, “it pays to produce a pathogen that could kill a billion people.” In Big Farms Make Big Flu, a collection of dispatches by turns harrowing and thought-provoking, Wallace tracks the ways influenza and other pathogens emerge from an agriculture controlled by multinational corporations. Wallace details, with a precise and radical wit, the latest in the science of agricultural epidemiology, while at the same time juxtaposing ghastly phenomena such as attempts at producing featherless chickens, microbial time travel, and neoliberal Ebola. Wallace also offers sensible alternatives to lethal agribusiness. Some, such as farming cooperatives, integrated pathogen management, and mixed crop-livestock systems, are already in practice off the agribusiness grid. While many books cover facets of food or outbreaks, Wallace's collection appears the first to explore infectious disease, agriculture, economics and the nature of science together. Big Farms Make Big Flu integrates the political economies of disease and science to derive a new understanding of the evolution of infections. Highly capitalized agriculture may be farming pathogens as much as chickens or corn.
