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Belief Functions In Business Decisions
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Book Synopsis Belief Functions in Business Decisions by : Rajendra P. Srivastava
Download or read book Belief Functions in Business Decisions written by Rajendra P. Srivastava and published by Physica. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book focuses on applications of belief functions to business decisions. Section I introduces the intuitive, conceptual and historical development of belief functions. Three different interpretations (the marginally correct approximation, the qualitative model, and the quantitative model) of belief functions are investigated, and rough set theory and structured query language (SQL) are used to express belief function semantics. Section II presents applications of belief functions in information systems and auditing. Included are discussions on how a belief-function framework provides a more efficient and effective audit methodology and also the appropriateness of belief functions to represent uncertainties in audit evidence. The third section deals with applications of belief functions to mergers and acquisitions; financial analysis of engineering enterprises; forecast demand for mobile satellite services; modeling financial portfolios; and economics.
Book Synopsis Classic Works of the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Belief Functions by : Ronald R. Yager
Download or read book Classic Works of the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Belief Functions written by Ronald R. Yager and published by Springer. This book was released on 2008-01-22 with total page 806 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a collection of classic research papers on the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions. The book is the authoritative reference in the field of evidential reasoning and an important archival reference in a wide range of areas including uncertainty reasoning in artificial intelligence and decision making in economics, engineering, and management. The book includes a foreword reflecting the development of the theory in the last forty years.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities by : Thomas Augustin
Download or read book Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities written by Thomas Augustin and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-04-11 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has beenfurther developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in orderto make the material available and accessible to a wide audience.This will be the first book providing such an introduction,covering core theory and recent developments which can be appliedto many application areas. All authors of individual chapters areleading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high qualityand up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides acomprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includingtheory and applications reflecting the current state if the art.Each chapter is written by experts on the respective topics,including: Sets of desirable gambles; Coherent lower (conditional)previsions; Special cases and links to literature; Decision making;Graphical models; Classification; Reliability and risk assessment;Statistical inference; Structural judgments; Aspects ofimplementation (including elicitation and computation); Models infinance; Game-theoretic probability; Stochastic processes(including Markov chains); Engineering applications. Essential reading for researchers in academia, researchinstitutes and other organizations, as well as practitionersengaged in areas such as risk analysis and engineering.
Book Synopsis Non-Bayesian Decision Theory by : Martin Peterson
Download or read book Non-Bayesian Decision Theory written by Martin Peterson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-06-06 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For quite some time, philosophers, economists, and statisticians have endorsed a view on rational choice known as Bayesianism. The work on this book has grown out of a feeling that the Bayesian view has come to dominate the academic com- nitytosuchanextentthatalternative,non-Bayesianpositionsareseldomextensively researched. Needless to say, I think this is a pity. Non-Bayesian positions deserve to be examined with much greater care, and the present work is an attempt to defend what I believe to be a coherent and reasonably detailed non-Bayesian account of decision theory. The main thesis I defend can be summarised as follows. Rational agents m- imise subjective expected utility, but contrary to what is claimed by Bayesians, ut- ity and subjective probability should not be de?ned in terms of preferences over uncertain prospects. On the contrary, rational decision makers need only consider preferences over certain outcomes. It will be shown that utility and probability fu- tions derived in a non-Bayesian manner can be used for generating preferences over uncertain prospects, that support the principle of maximising subjective expected utility. To some extent, this non-Bayesian view gives an account of what modern - cision theory could have been like, had decision theorists not entered the Bayesian path discovered by Ramsey, de Finetti, Savage, and others. I will not discuss all previous non-Bayesian positions presented in the literature.
Book Synopsis A Mathematical Theory of Evidence by : Glenn Shafer
Download or read book A Mathematical Theory of Evidence written by Glenn Shafer and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both in science and in practical affairs we reason by combining facts only inconclusively supported by evidence. Building on an abstract understanding of this process of combination, this book constructs a new theory of epistemic probability. The theory draws on the work of A. P. Dempster but diverges from Depster's viewpoint by identifying his "lower probabilities" as epistemic probabilities and taking his rule for combining "upper and lower probabilities" as fundamental. The book opens with a critique of the well-known Bayesian theory of epistemic probability. It then proceeds to develop an alternative to the additive set functions and the rule of conditioning of the Bayesian theory: set functions that need only be what Choquet called "monotone of order of infinity." and Dempster's rule for combining such set functions. This rule, together with the idea of "weights of evidence," leads to both an extensive new theory and a better understanding of the Bayesian theory. The book concludes with a brief treatment of statistical inference and a discussion of the limitations of epistemic probability. Appendices contain mathematical proofs, which are relatively elementary and seldom depend on mathematics more advanced that the binomial theorem.
Book Synopsis The Geometry of Uncertainty by : Fabio Cuzzolin
Download or read book The Geometry of Uncertainty written by Fabio Cuzzolin and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-12-17 with total page 850 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The principal aim of this book is to introduce to the widest possible audience an original view of belief calculus and uncertainty theory. In this geometric approach to uncertainty, uncertainty measures can be seen as points of a suitably complex geometric space, and manipulated in that space, for example, combined or conditioned. In the chapters in Part I, Theories of Uncertainty, the author offers an extensive recapitulation of the state of the art in the mathematics of uncertainty. This part of the book contains the most comprehensive summary to date of the whole of belief theory, with Chap. 4 outlining for the first time, and in a logical order, all the steps of the reasoning chain associated with modelling uncertainty using belief functions, in an attempt to provide a self-contained manual for the working scientist. In addition, the book proposes in Chap. 5 what is possibly the most detailed compendium available of all theories of uncertainty. Part II, The Geometry of Uncertainty, is the core of this book, as it introduces the author’s own geometric approach to uncertainty theory, starting with the geometry of belief functions: Chap. 7 studies the geometry of the space of belief functions, or belief space, both in terms of a simplex and in terms of its recursive bundle structure; Chap. 8 extends the analysis to Dempster’s rule of combination, introducing the notion of a conditional subspace and outlining a simple geometric construction for Dempster’s sum; Chap. 9 delves into the combinatorial properties of plausibility and commonality functions, as equivalent representations of the evidence carried by a belief function; then Chap. 10 starts extending the applicability of the geometric approach to other uncertainty measures, focusing in particular on possibility measures (consonant belief functions) and the related notion of a consistent belief function. The chapters in Part III, Geometric Interplays, are concerned with the interplay of uncertainty measures of different kinds, and the geometry of their relationship, with a particular focus on the approximation problem. Part IV, Geometric Reasoning, examines the application of the geometric approach to the various elements of the reasoning chain illustrated in Chap. 4, in particular conditioning and decision making. Part V concludes the book by outlining a future, complete statistical theory of random sets, future extensions of the geometric approach, and identifying high-impact applications to climate change, machine learning and artificial intelligence. The book is suitable for researchers in artificial intelligence, statistics, and applied science engaged with theories of uncertainty. The book is supported with the most comprehensive bibliography on belief and uncertainty theory.
Book Synopsis In Productivity, Finance, and Operations by : Kenneth D. Lawrence
Download or read book In Productivity, Finance, and Operations written by Kenneth D. Lawrence and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2006-06-13 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Talks about the applications of management science to: Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Operations and Supply Chain Management, Productivity Management (DEA), and Financial Management. This book provides an overview of some of the most essential aspects of the discipline. It is suitable for persons interested in management or management science.
Book Synopsis The Business of Belief by : Tom Asacker
Download or read book The Business of Belief written by Tom Asacker and published by Createspace Independent Pub. This book was released on 2013 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This is a short book. But I hope it takes you, like me, a long time to read it. The Business of Belief earns the word 'profound'-every sentence should be savored." -Tom Peters "Is this about marketing, life, spirituality, history, change or sales? Yes. A little book with a big idea." -Seth Godin, author of The Icarus Deception "This instant classic provides the key to motivating yourself, your friends, your family, your coworkers and your customers. A must read." -Inc. Magazine In this thought-provoking and entertaining book, Tom Asacker, author of Sandbox Wisdom and A Clear Eye for Branding, pulls back the curtain on the workings of the mind and reveals the hidden logic to motivating behavior, both in ourselves and in others. Whether you are launching a new brand or marketing campaign, selling products and services, coaching individuals or leading a team, this book will shatter your assumptions about leadership and the art of influence, and give you the invaluable insights required to understand and move others. The Business of Belief is Tom Asacker's most compelling-and important-book yet. It will fundamentally change the way you think about your work and your life. Use it as your companion and as a guide in this fast-paced world overwhelmed by complexity and choice. The next big idea in business is BELIEF.
Book Synopsis Belief Functions: Theory and Applications by : Fabio Cuzzolin
Download or read book Belief Functions: Theory and Applications written by Fabio Cuzzolin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-09-05 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed proceedings of the Third International Conference on Belief Functions, BELIEF 2014, held in Oxford, UK, in September 2014. The 47 revised full papers presented in this book were carefully selected and reviewed from 56 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on belief combination; machine learning; applications; theory; networks; information fusion; data association; and geometry.
Book Synopsis Belief Functions: Theory and Applications by : Sébastien Destercke
Download or read book Belief Functions: Theory and Applications written by Sébastien Destercke and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-09-07 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Belief Functions, BELIEF 2018, held in Compiègne, France, in September 2018.The 33 revised regular papers presented in this book were carefully selected and reviewed from 73 submissions. The papers were solicited on theoretical aspects (including for example statistical inference, mathematical foundations, continuous belief functions) as well as on applications in various areas including classification, statistics, data fusion, network analysis and intelligent vehicles.
Book Synopsis Belief Functions: Theory and Applications by : Jiřina Vejnarová
Download or read book Belief Functions: Theory and Applications written by Jiřina Vejnarová and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-09-07 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Belief Functions, BELIEF 2016, held in Prague, Czech Republic, in September 2016. The 25 revised full papers presented in this book were carefully selected and reviewed from 33 submissions. The papers describe recent developments of theoretical issues and applications in various areas such as combination rules; conflict management; generalized information theory; image processing; material sciences; navigation.
Book Synopsis Studies in Resource Allocation Processes by : Kenneth J. Arrow
Download or read book Studies in Resource Allocation Processes written by Kenneth J. Arrow and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2007-02-15 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the central questions of economics relates to the coordination of individual units within a large organization to achieve the central objectives of that organization. This book examines the problems involved in allocating resources in an economic system where decision-making is decentralized into the hands of individuals and individual enterprises. The decisions made by these economic agents must be coordinated because the input decisions of some must eventually equal the output decisions of others. Coordination arises naturally out of the mathematical theory of optimization but there is still the question of how it can be achieved in practice with dispersed knowledge. The essays here explore the many facets of this problem. Nine papers are grouped under the title 'Economies with a single maximand'. They include papers on static and dynamic optimization, decentralization within firms, and nonconvexities in optimizing problems. Fourteen papers are concerned with 'Economies with multiple objectives'. Among the topics covered here are stability of competitive equilibrium, stability in oligopology, and dynamic shortages. The final part of the book includes three papers on informational efficiency and informationally decentralized systems. Leonid Hurwitcz is the Nobel Prize Winner 2007 for The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, along with colleagues Eric Maskin and Roger Myerson, for his work on the effectiveness of markets.
Book Synopsis Non-Additive Measure and Integral by : D. Denneberg
Download or read book Non-Additive Measure and Integral written by D. Denneberg and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Non-Additive Measure and Integral is the first systematic approach to the subject. Much of the additive theory (convergence theorems, Lebesgue spaces, representation theorems) is generalized, at least for submodular measures which are characterized by having a subadditive integral. The theory is of interest for applications to economic decision theory (decisions under risk and uncertainty), to statistics (including belief functions, fuzzy measures) to cooperative game theory, artificial intelligence, insurance, etc. Non-Additive Measure and Integral collects the results of scattered and often isolated approaches to non-additive measures and their integrals which originate in pure mathematics, potential theory, statistics, game theory, economic decision theory and other fields of application. It unifies, simplifies and generalizes known results and supplements the theory with new results, thus providing a sound basis for applications and further research in this growing field of increasing interest. It also contains fundamental results of sigma-additive and finitely additive measure and integration theory and sheds new light on additive theory. Non-Additive Measure and Integral employs distribution functions and quantile functions as basis tools, thus remaining close to the familiar language of probability theory. In addition to serving as an important reference, the book can be used as a mathematics textbook for graduate courses or seminars, containing many exercises to support or supplement the text.
Book Synopsis Quantified Representation of Uncertainty and Imprecision by : Dov M. Gabbay
Download or read book Quantified Representation of Uncertainty and Imprecision written by Dov M. Gabbay and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1998-10-31 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We are happy to present the first volume of the Handbook of Defeasible Reasoning and Uncertainty Management Systems. Uncertainty pervades the real world and must therefore be addressed by every system that attempts to represent reality. The representation of uncertainty is a ma jor concern of philosophers, logicians, artificial intelligence researchers and com puter sciencists, psychologists, statisticians, economists and engineers. The present Handbook volumes provide frontline coverage of this area. This Handbook was produced in the style of previous handbook series like the Handbook of Philosoph ical Logic, the Handbook of Logic in Computer Science, the Handbook of Logic in Artificial Intelligence and Logic Programming, and can be seen as a companion to them in covering the wide applications of logic and reasoning. We hope it will answer the needs for adequate representations of uncertainty. This Handbook series grew out of the ESPRIT Basic Research Project DRUMS II, where the acronym is made out of the Handbook series title. This project was financially supported by the European Union and regroups 20 major European research teams working in the general domain of uncertainty. As a fringe benefit of the DRUMS project, the research community was able to create this Hand book series, relying on the DRUMS participants as the core of the authors for the Handbook together with external international experts.
Book Synopsis The Theory of the Business (Harvard Business Review Classics) by : Peter F. Drucker
Download or read book The Theory of the Business (Harvard Business Review Classics) written by Peter F. Drucker and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2017-04-18 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Peter F. Drucker argues that what underlies the current malaise of so many large and successful organizations worldwide is that their theory of the business no longer works. The story is a familiar one: a company that was a superstar only yesterday finds itself stagnating and frustrated, in trouble and, often, in a seemingly unmanageable crisis. The root cause of nearly every one of these crises is not that things are being done poorly. It is not even that the wrong things are being done. Indeed, in most cases, the right things are being done—but fruitlessly. What accounts for this apparent paradox? The assumptions on which the organization has been built and is being run no longer fit reality. These are the assumptions that shape any organization's behavior, dictate its decisions about what to do and what not to do, and define what an organization considers meaningful results. These assumptions are what Drucker calls a company's theory of the business. The Harvard Business Review Classics series offers you the opportunity to make seminal Harvard Business Review articles a part of your permanent management library. Each highly readable volume contains a groundbreaking idea that continues to shape best practices and inspire countless managers around the world—and will have a direct impact on you today and for years to come.
Book Synopsis The Paradox of Choice by : Barry Schwartz
Download or read book The Paradox of Choice written by Barry Schwartz and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2009-10-13 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether we're buying a pair of jeans, ordering a cup of coffee, selecting a long-distance carrier, applying to college, choosing a doctor, or setting up a 401(k), everyday decisions—both big and small—have become increasingly complex due to the overwhelming abundance of choice with which we are presented. As Americans, we assume that more choice means better options and greater satisfaction. But beware of excessive choice: choice overload can make you question the decisions you make before you even make them, it can set you up for unrealistically high expectations, and it can make you blame yourself for any and all failures. In the long run, this can lead to decision-making paralysis, anxiety, and perpetual stress. And, in a culture that tells us that there is no excuse for falling short of perfection when your options are limitless, too much choice can lead to clinical depression. In The Paradox of Choice, Barry Schwartz explains at what point choice—the hallmark of individual freedom and self-determination that we so cherish—becomes detrimental to our psychological and emotional well-being. In accessible, engaging, and anecdotal prose, Schwartz shows how the dramatic explosion in choice—from the mundane to the profound challenges of balancing career, family, and individual needs—has paradoxically become a problem instead of a solution. Schwartz also shows how our obsession with choice encourages us to seek that which makes us feel worse. By synthesizing current research in the social sciences, Schwartz makes the counter intuitive case that eliminating choices can greatly reduce the stress, anxiety, and busyness of our lives. He offers eleven practical steps on how to limit choices to a manageable number, have the discipline to focus on those that are important and ignore the rest, and ultimately derive greater satisfaction from the choices you have to make.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Defeasible Reasoning and Uncertainty Management Systems by : Dov M. Gabbay
Download or read book Handbook of Defeasible Reasoning and Uncertainty Management Systems written by Dov M. Gabbay and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2000-12-31 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Handbook of Defeasible Reasoning and Uncertainty Management Systems is unique in its masterly survey of the computational and algorithmic problems of systems of applied reasoning. The various theoretical and modelling aspects of defeasible reasoning were dealt with in the first four volumes, and Volume 5 now turns to the algorithmic aspect. Topics covered include: Computation in valuation algebras; consequence finding algorithms; possibilistic logic; probabilistic argumentation systems, networks and satisfiability; algorithms for imprecise probabilities, for Dempster-Shafer, and network based decisions.
