Behavioral economics in the marketplace: predicting investments

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Author :
Publisher : Az Boek
ISBN 13 : 6256315871
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (563 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioral economics in the marketplace: predicting investments by : George Wilton

Download or read book Behavioral economics in the marketplace: predicting investments written by George Wilton and published by Az Boek. This book was released on 2024-04-27 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Stock-market Psychology

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Author :
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9781782543039
Total Pages : 360 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (43 download)

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Book Synopsis Stock-market Psychology by : Karl Erik W‹rneryd

Download or read book Stock-market Psychology written by Karl Erik W‹rneryd and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2001-01-01 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Stock-Market Psychology gives an excellent overview of the state-of-the-art literature on this subject in the fields of economics, psychology and finance. . . a comprehensive overview of the behavior of investors in the stock market. As such, this book is valuable for the classroom. . . Stock-Market Psychology provides researchers with numerous ideas for future research and readers with useful and fun tips without taking away our hopes of ever becoming rich from investing in stocks. What more is there to ask from a book?' - Joost M.E. Pennings, Journal of Economic Psychology 'George Goodman (Adam Smith) once wrote, "you can find out who you are by investing in the stock market, but it will be an expensive lesson". It is far smarter and cheaper to read Wärneryd's book instead. At a time when global stock markets are driven by emotions and passions, and are highly volatile, Chapter Six will tell you why, far better than a hundred analysts' reports.' - Shlomo Maital, TIM-Technion Institute of Management and the Samuel Neaman Institute for Advanced Studies in Science and Technology, Israel The rationale behind how people value and trade stocks is of unparalleled interest to governments, companies and other participants in stock markets. The book focuses on the way in which investors process information and form expectations about future gains. It argues that humans fall short of the perfect information processing required by theory, and that their expectations are based on more than just future company earnings.

Predicting the Markets of Tomorrow

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Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 110121838X
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (12 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting the Markets of Tomorrow by : James P. O'Shaughnessy

Download or read book Predicting the Markets of Tomorrow written by James P. O'Shaughnessy and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2006-03-02 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unique and timely new wealth-building strategy from a legendary investment guru In his national bestsellers How to Retire Rich and What Works on Wall Street, portfolio manager extraordinaire James P. O’Shaughnessy offered investors practical advice based on rigorous quantitative analysis—advice that has consistently beaten the market. But in a recent analysis of market data, O’Shaughnessy uncovered some astonishing trends not discussed in his previous books. The Markets of Tomorrow explains O’Shaughnessy’s new research and tells ordinary investors what they must do now to revamp their portfolios. According to O’Shaughnessy, the year 2000 marked the end of a twenty-year cycle that was dominated by the stocks of larger, fastergrowing companies like those in the S&P 500. In the new cycle, the stocks of small and midsize companies are the ones that will outperform the market, along with large company value stocks and intermediate term bonds. O’Shaughnessy describes the number crunching behind his analysis and then shows individual investors exactly how to select the right mix of investments and pick top-performing small and midcap stocks. The Markets of Tomorrow is a loud and clear call to action for every investor who doesn’t want to be left behind.

Behavioral Finance

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 111830019X
Total Pages : 261 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (183 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioral Finance by : Edwin T. Burton

Download or read book Behavioral Finance written by Edwin T. Burton and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-03-18 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An in-depth look into the various aspects of behavioral finance Behavioral finance applies systematic analysis to ideas that have long floated around the world of trading and investing. Yet it is important to realize that we are still at a very early stage of research into this discipline and have much to learn. That is why Edwin Burton has written Behavioral Finance: Understanding the Social, Cognitive, and Economic Debates. Engaging and informative, this timely guide contains valuable insights into various issues surrounding behavioral finance. Topics addressed include noise trader theory and models, research into psychological behavior pioneered by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, and serial correlation patterns in stock price data. Along the way, Burton shares his own views on behavioral finance in order to shed some much-needed light on the subject. Discusses the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and its history, and presents the background of the emergence of behavioral finance Examines Shleifer's model of noise trading and explores other literature on the topic of noise trading Covers issues associated with anomalies and details serial correlation from the perspective of experts such as DeBondt and Thaler A companion Website contains supplementary material that allows you to learn in a hands-on fashion long after closing the book In order to achieve better investment results, we must first overcome our behavioral finance biases. This book will put you in a better position to do so.

Behavioral Finance

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470499117
Total Pages : 773 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (74 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioral Finance by : H. Kent Baker

Download or read book Behavioral Finance written by H. Kent Baker and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-10-05 with total page 773 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A definitive guide to the growing field of behavioral finance This reliable resource provides a comprehensive view of behavioral finance and its psychological foundations, as well as its applications to finance. Comprising contributed chapters written by distinguished authors from some of the most influential firms and universities in the world, Behavioral Finance provides a synthesis of the most essential elements of this discipline, including psychological concepts and behavioral biases, the behavioral aspects of asset pricing, asset allocation, and market prices, as well as investor behavior, corporate managerial behavior, and social influences. Uses a structured approach to put behavioral finance in perspective Relies on recent research findings to provide guidance through the maze of theories and concepts Discusses the impact of sub-optimal financial decisions on the efficiency of capital markets, personal wealth, and the performance of corporations Behavioral finance has quickly become part of mainstream finance. If you need to gain a better understanding of this topic, look no further than this book.

Advances in Behavioral Finance

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Publisher : Russell Sage Foundation
ISBN 13 : 9780871548443
Total Pages : 628 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (484 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Behavioral Finance by : Richard H. Thaler

Download or read book Advances in Behavioral Finance written by Richard H. Thaler and published by Russell Sage Foundation. This book was released on 1993-08-19 with total page 628 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern financial markets offer the real world's best approximation to the idealized price auction market envisioned in economic theory. Nevertheless, as the increasingly exquisite and detailed financial data demonstrate, financial markets often fail to behave as they should if trading were truly dominated by the fully rational investors that populate financial theories. These markets anomalies have spawned a new approach to finance, one which as editor Richard Thaler puts it, "entertains the possibility that some agents in the economy behave less than fully rationally some of the time." Advances in Behavioral Finance collects together twenty-one recent articles that illustrate the power of this approach. These papers demonstrate how specific departures from fully rational decision making by individual market agents can provide explanations of otherwise puzzling market phenomena. To take several examples, Werner De Bondt and Thaler find an explanation for superior price performance of firms with poor recent earnings histories in the tendencies of investors to overreact to recent information. Richard Roll traces the negative effects of corporate takeovers on the stock prices of the acquiring firms to the overconfidence of managers, who fail to recognize the contributions of chance to their past successes. Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny show how the difficulty of establishing a reliable reputation for correctly assessing the value of long term capital projects can lead investment analysis, and hence corporate managers, to focus myopically on short term returns. As a testing ground for assessing the empirical accuracy of behavioral theories, the successful studies in this landmark collection reach beyond the world of finance to suggest, very powerfully, the importance of pursuing behavioral approaches to other areas of economic life. Advances in Behavioral Finance is a solid beachhead for behavioral work in the financial arena and a clear promise of wider application for behavioral economics in the future.

The Little Book of Behavioral Investing

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470712031
Total Pages : 243 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (77 download)

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Book Synopsis The Little Book of Behavioral Investing by : James Montier

Download or read book The Little Book of Behavioral Investing written by James Montier and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-03-30 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A detailed guide to overcoming the most frequently encountered psychological pitfalls of investing Bias, emotion, and overconfidence are just three of the many behavioral traits that can lead investors to lose money or achieve lower returns. Behavioral finance, which recognizes that there is a psychological element to all investor decision-making, can help you overcome this obstacle. In The Little Book of Behavioral Investing, expert James Montier takes you through some of the most important behavioral challenges faced by investors. Montier reveals the most common psychological barriers, clearly showing how emotion, overconfidence, and a multitude of other behavioral traits, can affect investment decision-making. Offers time-tested ways to identify and avoid the pitfalls of investor bias Author James Montier is one of the world's foremost behavioral analysts Discusses how to learn from our investment mistakes instead of repeating them Explores the behavioral principles that will allow you to maintain a successful investment portfolio Written in a straightforward and accessible style, The Little Book of Behavioral Investing will enable you to identify and eliminate behavioral traits that can hinder your investment endeavors and show you how to go about achieving superior returns in the process. Praise for The Little Book Of Behavioral Investing "The Little Book of Behavioral Investing is an important book for anyone who is interested in understanding the ways that human nature and financial markets interact." —Dan Ariely, James B. Duke Professor of Behavioral Economics, Duke University, and author of Predictably Irrational "In investing, success means¿being on the right side of most trades. No book provides a better starting point toward that goal than this one." —Bruce Greenwald, Robert Heilbrunn Professor of Finance and Asset Management, Columbia Business School "'Know thyself.' Overcoming human instinct is key to becoming a better investor.¿ You would be irrational if you did not read this book." —Edward Bonham-Carter, Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer, Jupiter Asset Management "There is not an investor anywhere who wouldn't profit from reading this book." —Jeff Hochman, Director of Technical Strategy, Fidelity Investment Services Limited "James Montier gives us a very accessible version of why we as investors are so predictably irrational, and a guide to help us channel our 'Inner Spock' to make better investment decisions. Bravo!" —John Mauldin, President, Millennium Wave Investments

Market Insanity

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Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0128131160
Total Pages : 140 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)

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Book Synopsis Market Insanity by : Michael Taillard

Download or read book Market Insanity written by Michael Taillard and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2018-03-06 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Market Insanity: A Brief Guide to Diagnosing the Madness in the Stock Market is an engaging and accessible primer which applies modern behavioral finance to equity markets. It helps readers understand how logical investment decisions can be betrayed by what Taillard calls "the insanity," all those behavioral quirks which cause us to achieve less than optimal utility. The book describes how limited information, habit, the rules of the game, asymmetric information and ego blend together in potentially toxic ways in market environments, thus creating bubbles, stock runs, and more prosaically, even ‘normal’ equity prices. In addition, the book discusses the implications of these behaviors in-depth. In so doing, it helps the reader to not only predict the madness within equity markets, but also helps them develop solutions that address and mitigate outcomes. Provides detailed and accurate descriptions of the most relevant behavioral anomalies for finance Entertainingly written by a veteran consultant with 15+ years experience helping companies explain anomalous finance behavior in non-economic language Shows how educated finance professionals can use behavioral insights to help build finance solutions Addresses the implications for equity markets in deviations from rationality paradigms Draws on a vast range of literature in explaining anomalous behavior, including economic psychology, economic psychology, evolutionary psychology, anthropology and animal behavior

Investor Behavior

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Author :
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118727029
Total Pages : 645 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (187 download)

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Book Synopsis Investor Behavior by : H. Kent Baker

Download or read book Investor Behavior written by H. Kent Baker and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-02-06 with total page 645 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: WINNER, Business: Personal Finance/Investing, 2015 USA Best Book Awards FINALIST, Business: Reference, 2015 USA Best Book Awards Investor Behavior provides readers with a comprehensive understanding and the latest research in the area of behavioral finance and investor decision making. Blending contributions from noted academics and experienced practitioners, this 30-chapter book will provide investment professionals with insights on how to understand and manage client behavior; a framework for interpreting financial market activity; and an in-depth understanding of this important new field of investment research. The book should also be of interest to academics, investors, and students. The book will cover the major principles of investor psychology, including heuristics, bounded rationality, regret theory, mental accounting, framing, prospect theory, and loss aversion. Specific sections of the book will delve into the role of personality traits, financial therapy, retirement planning, financial coaching, and emotions in investment decisions. Other topics covered include risk perception and tolerance, asset allocation decisions under inertia and inattention bias; evidenced based financial planning, motivation and satisfaction, behavioral investment management, and neurofinance. Contributions will delve into the behavioral underpinnings of various trading and investment topics including trader psychology, stock momentum, earnings surprises, and anomalies. The final chapters of the book examine new research on socially responsible investing, mutual funds, and real estate investing from a behavioral perspective. Empirical evidence and current literature about each type of investment issue are featured. Cited research studies are presented in a straightforward manner focusing on the comprehension of study findings, rather than on the details of mathematical frameworks.

Behavioral Predictive Modeling in Economics

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Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030497283
Total Pages : 445 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioral Predictive Modeling in Economics by : Songsak Sriboonchitta

Download or read book Behavioral Predictive Modeling in Economics written by Songsak Sriboonchitta and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-08-05 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents both methodological papers on and examples of applying behavioral predictive models to specific economic problems, with a focus on how to take into account people's behavior when making economic predictions. This is an important issue, since traditional economic models assumed that people make wise economic decisions based on a detailed rational analysis of all the relevant aspects. However, in reality – as Nobel Prize-winning research has shown – people have a limited ability to process information and, as a result, their decisions are not always optimal. Discussing the need for prediction-oriented statistical techniques, since many statistical methods currently used in economics focus more on model fitting and do not always lead to good predictions, the book is a valuable resource for researchers and students interested in the latest results and challenges and for practitioners wanting to learn how to use state-of-the-art techniques.

Far from Random

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Publisher : John Wiley and Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470885394
Total Pages : 257 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (78 download)

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Book Synopsis Far from Random by : Richard Lehman

Download or read book Far from Random written by Richard Lehman and published by John Wiley and Sons. This book was released on 2010-05-13 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since Burton Malkiel’s seminal work A Random Walk Down Wall Street was published, the financial world has swallowed whole the idea that market movement is chaotic and random. In Far from Random, Richard Lehman uses behavior-based trend analysis to debunk Malkiel’s random walk theory. Lehman demonstrates that the market has discernible trends that are foreseeable. By learning to spot these trends, investors and traders can predict market movement to boost returns in anything from equities to 401(k) accounts. Richard Lehman has been a financial professional for more than thirty years. He studied the first iterations of behavioral finance back in the 1970s as a financial marketer and has since worked in various facets of the financial industry. His early introduction to behavioral finance and the more recent introduction to trend analysis led him to this important discovery.

Behavioral Finance and Stock Market Investing. The Importance of National Culture

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Publisher : GRIN Verlag
ISBN 13 : 3346366162
Total Pages : 104 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (463 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioral Finance and Stock Market Investing. The Importance of National Culture by : Mustafa Özal

Download or read book Behavioral Finance and Stock Market Investing. The Importance of National Culture written by Mustafa Özal and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2021-03-17 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2018 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1,3, University of Bremen, language: English, abstract: The aim of this paper is to propose a model for cultural finance and to develop theory-based hypotheses on stock market investing. In contrast to the inductive financial research, a deductive approach is offered here to connect widely-accepted behavioral hypotheses on the stock market. Understanding behavioral influences on an investor’s decision-making surprisingly has not been driven much by the acknowledgment of the mediating role of culture. While behavioral finance criticizes excessive simplifications regarding an investor’s behavior according to the homo oeconomicus, it makes the unrealistic assumption that actors exhibit universal biases and equally apply heuristics when facing different choices of action. This paper addresses cultural finance as an important background variable and suggests a conjoint effect with behavioral finance. This means that the culture can enhance, decrease or reverse biases and heuristics which are still mostly examined in the United States and only replicated in western countries. The paper is encouraged to implement cultural finance as a future research field.

Contemporary Issues in Behavioral Finance

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Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1787698815
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (876 download)

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Book Synopsis Contemporary Issues in Behavioral Finance by : Simon Grima

Download or read book Contemporary Issues in Behavioral Finance written by Simon Grima and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2019-07-04 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This special edition of Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis offers seventeen chapters from invited participants in the International Applied Social Science Congress, held in Turkey between the 19th and 21st April 2018.

The Behavioral Investor

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Publisher : Harriman House Limited
ISBN 13 : 0857196871
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (571 download)

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Book Synopsis The Behavioral Investor by : Daniel Crosby

Download or read book The Behavioral Investor written by Daniel Crosby and published by Harriman House Limited. This book was released on 2018-10-16 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the New York Times bestselling author of the book named the best investment book of 2017 comes The Behavioral Investor, an applied look at how psychology ought to inform the art and science of investment management. In The Behavioral Investor, psychologist and asset manager Dr. Daniel Crosby examines the sociological, neurological and psychological factors that influence our investment decisions and sets forth practical solutions for improving both returns and behavior. Readers will be treated to the most comprehensive examination of investor behavior to date and will leave with concrete solutions for refining decision-making processes, increasing self-awareness and constraining the fatal flaws to which most investors are prone. The Behavioral Investor takes a sweeping tour of human nature before arriving at the specifics of portfolio construction, rooted in the belief that it is only as we come to a deep understanding of “why” that we are left with any clue as to “how” we ought to invest. The book is comprised of three parts, which are as follows: - Part One – An explication of the sociological, neurological and physiological impediments to sound investment decision-making. Readers will leave with an improved understanding of how externalities impact choices in nearly imperceptible ways and begin to understand the impact of these pressures on investment selection. - Part Two – Coverage of the four primary psychological tendencies that impact investment behavior. Although human behavior is undoubtedly complex, in an investment context our choices are largely driven by one of the four factors discussed herein. Readers will emerge with an improved understanding of their own behavior, increased humility and a lens through which to vet decisions of all types. - Part Three – Illuminates the “so what” of Parts One and Two and provides a framework for managing wealth in a manner consistent with the realities of our contextual and behavioral shortcomings. Readers will leave with a deeper understanding of the psychological underpinnings of popular investment approaches such as value and momentum and appreciate why all types of successful investing have psychology at their core. Wealth, truly considered, has at least as much to do with psychological as financial wellbeing. The Behavioral Investoraims to enrich readers in the most holistic sense of the word, leaving them with tools for compounding both wealth and knowledge.

Inefficient Markets

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Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 0191606898
Total Pages : 295 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (916 download)

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Book Synopsis Inefficient Markets by : Andrei Shleifer

Download or read book Inefficient Markets written by Andrei Shleifer and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2000-03-09 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The efficient markets hypothesis has been the central proposition in finance for nearly thirty years. It states that securities prices in financial markets must equal fundamental values, either because all investors are rational or because arbitrage eliminates pricing anomalies. This book describes an alternative approach to the study of financial markets: behavioral finance. This approach starts with an observation that the assumptions of investor rationality and perfect arbitrage are overwhelmingly contradicted by both psychological and institutional evidence. In actual financial markets, less than fully rational investors trade against arbitrageurs whose resources are limited by risk aversion, short horizons, and agency problems. The book presents and empirically evaluates models of such inefficient markets. Behavioral finance models both explain the available financial data better than does the efficient markets hypothesis and generate new empirical predictions. These models can account for such anomalies as the superior performance of value stocks, the closed end fund puzzle, the high returns on stocks included in market indices, the persistence of stock price bubbles, and even the collapse of several well-known hedge funds in 1998. By summarizing and expanding the research in behavioral finance, the book builds a new theoretical and empirical foundation for the economic analysis of real-world markets.

The Mystery of Market Movements

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118845005
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (188 download)

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Book Synopsis The Mystery of Market Movements by : Niklas Hageback

Download or read book The Mystery of Market Movements written by Niklas Hageback and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-03-25 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A quantifiable framework for unlocking the unconscious forcesthat shape markets There has long been a notion that subliminal forces play a greatpart in causing the seemingly irrational financial bubbles, whichconventional economic theory, again and again, fails to explain.However, these forces, sometimes labeled ‘animalspirits’ or ‘irrational exuberance, have remainedelusive - until now. The Mystery of Market Movementsprovides you with a methodology to timely predict and profit fromchanges in human investment behaviour based on the workings of thecollective unconscious. Niklas Hageback draws in on one of psychology's most influentialideas - archetypes - to explain how they form investor’sperceptions and can be predicted and turned into profit. TheMystery of Market Movements provides; A review of the collective unconscious and its archetypes basedon Carl Jung’s theories and empirical case studies thathighlights and assesses the influences of the collectiveunconscious on financial bubbles and zeitgeists For the first time being able to objectively measure the impactof archetypal forces on human thoughts and behaviour with a view toprovide early warning signals on major turns in the markets. Thisis done through a step-by-step guide on how to develop ameasurement methodology based on an analysis of the language of theunconscious; figurative speech such as metaphors and symbolism,drawn out and deciphered from Big Data sources, allowingfor quantification into time series The book is supplemented with an online resource that presentscontinuously updated bespoken archetypal indexes with predictivecapabilities to major financial indexes Investors are often unaware of the real reasons behindtheir own financial decisions. This book explains why psychologicaldrivers in the collective unconscious dictates not only investmentbehaviour but also political, cultural and social trends.Understanding these forces allows you to stay ahead of the curveand profit from market tendencies that more traditional methodscompletely overlook.

Forecasting Financial Markets

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Author :
Publisher : Kogan Page Publishers
ISBN 13 : 0749458720
Total Pages : 424 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (494 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Financial Markets by : Tony Plummer

Download or read book Forecasting Financial Markets written by Tony Plummer and published by Kogan Page Publishers. This book was released on 2009-12-03 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting Financial Markets provides a compelling insight into the psychology of trading behaviour and shows how "following the herd" can have disastrous results. It demonstrates how your ability to make money in the world's financial markets depends critically on your ability to make decisions independently of the crowd. Given the impact of the global credit crunch, it has become even more essential to be able to distinguish between short-term and longer-term trends at a time when panic selling and 'fire-sale' purchases are common. Forecasting Financial Markets details the three dimensions essential to achieve successful trading, including an ability to understand the forces at work in logical terms, recognize (and neutralize) any emotional responses to market fluctuations, and design an investment process or trading system that generates objective 'buy' or 'sell' signals. Taking the author's latest research into account, this important book provides you with an in-depth assessment of the phenomenon of cycles, patterns of economic and financial activity, and how to use cycles as a forecasting tool - including the author's forecasts for when the global economy will emerge from its current downturn.