Bayesian Two-Stage Robust Causal Modeling with Instrumental Variables Using Student's T Distributions

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (115 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Two-Stage Robust Causal Modeling with Instrumental Variables Using Student's T Distributions by : Dingjing Shi

Download or read book Bayesian Two-Stage Robust Causal Modeling with Instrumental Variables Using Student's T Distributions written by Dingjing Shi and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In causal inference research, the issue of the treatment endogeneity is commonly addressed using the two-stage least squares (2SLS) modeling with instrumental variables (IVs), where the local average treatment effect (LATE) is the causal effect of interest. Because practical data are usually heavy tailed or contain outliers, using traditional 2SLS modeling based on normality assumptions may result in inefficient or even biased LATE estimate. This study proposes four types of Bayesian two-stage robust causal models with IVs to model normal and nonnormal data, and evaluates the performance of the four types of models with IVs. The Monte Carlo simulation results show that the Bayesian two-stage robust causal modeling produces reliable parameter estimates and model fits. Particularly, in different types of the two-stage robust models with IVs, the models that take outliers into consideration and use Student's t distributions in the second stage to model heavy-tailed data or data containing outliers provide more accurate and efficient LATE estimates and better model fits than other distribution models when data are contaminated. The preferred models are recommended to be adopted in general in the two-stage causal modeling with IVs.

Bayesian Inference

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Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN 13 : 9535135775
Total Pages : 379 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (351 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Inference by : Javier Prieto Tejedor

Download or read book Bayesian Inference written by Javier Prieto Tejedor and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2017-11-02 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The range of Bayesian inference algorithms and their different applications has been greatly expanded since the first implementation of a Kalman filter by Stanley F. Schmidt for the Apollo program. Extended Kalman filters or particle filters are just some examples of these algorithms that have been extensively applied to logistics, medical services, search and rescue operations, or automotive safety, among others. This book takes a look at both theoretical foundations of Bayesian inference and practical implementations in different fields. It is intended as an introductory guide for the application of Bayesian inference in the fields of life sciences, engineering, and economics, as well as a source document of fundamentals for intermediate Bayesian readers.

Applied Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference from Incomplete-Data Perspectives

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780470090435
Total Pages : 448 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (94 download)

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Book Synopsis Applied Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference from Incomplete-Data Perspectives by : Andrew Gelman

Download or read book Applied Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference from Incomplete-Data Perspectives written by Andrew Gelman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-09-03 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together a collection of articles on statistical methods relating to missing data analysis, including multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables, and Bayesian inference. Covering new research topics and real-world examples which do not feature in many standard texts. The book is dedicated to Professor Don Rubin (Harvard). Don Rubin has made fundamental contributions to the study of missing data. Key features of the book include: Comprehensive coverage of an imporant area for both research and applications. Adopts a pragmatic approach to describing a wide range of intermediate and advanced statistical techniques. Covers key topics such as multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables and Bayesian inference. Includes a number of applications from the social and health sciences. Edited and authored by highly respected researchers in the area.

Quantitative Psychology

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319562940
Total Pages : 419 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (195 download)

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Book Synopsis Quantitative Psychology by : L. Andries van der Ark

Download or read book Quantitative Psychology written by L. Andries van der Ark and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-06-06 with total page 419 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This proceedings volume compiles and expands on selected and peer reviewed presentations given at the 81st Annual Meeting of the Psychometric Society (IMPS), organized by the University of North Carolina at Greensboro, and held in Asheville, North Carolina, July 11th to 17th, 2016. IMPS is one of the largest international meetings focusing on quantitative measurement in psychology, education, and the social sciences, both in terms of participants and number of presentations. The meeting built on the Psychometric Society's mission to share quantitative methods relevant to psychology, addressing a diverse set of psychometric topics including item response theory, factor analysis, structural equation modeling, time series analysis, mediation analysis, cognitive diagnostic models, and multi-level models. Selected presenters were invited to revise and expand their contributions and to have them peer reviewed and published in this proceedings volume. Previous volumes to showcase work from the Psychometric Society’s meetings are New Developments in Quantitative Psychology: Presentations from the 77th Annual Psychometric Society Meeting (Springer, 2013), Quantitative Psychology Research: The 78th Annual Meeting of the Psychometric Society (Springer, 2015), Quantitative Psychology Research: The 79th Annual Meeting of the Psychometric Society, Madison, Wisconsin, 2014 (Springer, 2015), and Quantitative Psychology Research: The 80th Annual Meeting of the Psychometric Society, Beijing, 2015 (Springer, 2016).

A Generalized Bayesian Instrumental Variable Approach Under Student T-Distributed Errors with Application

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis A Generalized Bayesian Instrumental Variable Approach Under Student T-Distributed Errors with Application by : Matthew Jude Salois

Download or read book A Generalized Bayesian Instrumental Variable Approach Under Student T-Distributed Errors with Application written by Matthew Jude Salois and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian analysis is given of an instrumental variable model that allows for t-distributed errors in both the structural equation and the instrument equation. Specifically, the approach for dealing with t-distributed errors is extended to the Bayesian instrumental variable estimator by modelling the variance for each error using a Gamma distributed hierarchical prior. The computation is carried out by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm for the heteroskedastic case. An example using data illustrates the approach and shows that ignoring the presence of error terms with heavy tails in the instrument equation when it exists may lead to biased estimates.

The Book of Why

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Publisher : Basic Books
ISBN 13 : 0465097618
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (65 download)

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Book Synopsis The Book of Why by : Judea Pearl

Download or read book The Book of Why written by Judea Pearl and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2018-05-15 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.

Bayesian Methods

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1420010824
Total Pages : 696 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Methods by : Jeff Gill

Download or read book Bayesian Methods written by Jeff Gill and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2007-11-26 with total page 696 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first edition of Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach helped pave the way for Bayesian approaches to become more prominent in social science methodology. While the focus remains on practical modeling and basic theory as well as on intuitive explanations and derivations without skipping steps, this second edition incorpora

Bayesian Approaches for Instrumental Variable Analysis with Censored Time-to-event Outcome

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 134 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (889 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Approaches for Instrumental Variable Analysis with Censored Time-to-event Outcome by : Xuyang Lu

Download or read book Bayesian Approaches for Instrumental Variable Analysis with Censored Time-to-event Outcome written by Xuyang Lu and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The method of instrumental variable (IV) analysis has been widely used in economics, epidemiology, and other fields to estimate the causal effects of intermediate covariates on outcomes, in the presence of unobserved confounders and/or measurement errors in covariates. Consistent estimation of the effect has been developed when the outcome is continuous, while methods for binary outcome produce inconsistent estimation. In this dissertation, we examine two IV methods in the literature for binary outcome and show the bias in parameter estimate by a simulation study. The identifiability problem of IV analysis with binary outcome is discussed. Moreover, IV methods for time-to-event outcome with censored data remain underdeveloped. We propose two Bayesian approaches for IV analysis with censored time-to-event outcome by using a two-stage linear model: One is a parametric Bayesian model with normal and non-normal elliptically contoured error distributions, and the other is a semiparametric Bayesian model with Dirichlet process mixtures for the random errors, in order to relax the parametric assumptions and address heterogeneous clustering problems. Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling methods are developed for both parametric and semiparametric Bayesian models to estimate the endogenous parameter. Performance of our methods is examined by simulation studies. Both methods largely reduce bias in estimation and greatly improve coverage probability of the endogenous parameter, compared to the regular method where the unobserved confounders and/or measurement errors are ignored. We illustrate our methods on the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

Statistical Rethinking

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 0429639147
Total Pages : 575 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (296 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Rethinking by : Richard McElreath

Download or read book Statistical Rethinking written by Richard McElreath and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-03-13 with total page 575 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds your knowledge of and confidence in making inferences from data. Reflecting the need for scripting in today's model-based statistics, the book pushes you to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that you understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in your own modeling work. The text presents causal inference and generalized linear multilevel models from a simple Bayesian perspective that builds on information theory and maximum entropy. The core material ranges from the basics of regression to advanced multilevel models. It also presents measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and phylogenetic confounding. The second edition emphasizes the directed acyclic graph (DAG) approach to causal inference, integrating DAGs into many examples. The new edition also contains new material on the design of prior distributions, splines, ordered categorical predictors, social relations models, cross-validation, importance sampling, instrumental variables, and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. It ends with an entirely new chapter that goes beyond generalized linear modeling, showing how domain-specific scientific models can be built into statistical analyses. Features Integrates working code into the main text Illustrates concepts through worked data analysis examples Emphasizes understanding assumptions and how assumptions are reflected in code Offers more detailed explanations of the mathematics in optional sections Presents examples of using the dagitty R package to analyze causal graphs Provides the rethinking R package on the author's website and on GitHub

Statistical Modeling with R

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Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0192859013
Total Pages : 519 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (928 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Modeling with R by : Pablo Inchausti

Download or read book Statistical Modeling with R written by Pablo Inchausti and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2023-01-11 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To date, statistics has tended to be neatly divided into two theoretical approaches or frameworks: frequentist (or classical) and Bayesian. Scientists typically choose the statistical framework to analyse their data depending on the nature and complexity of the problem, and based on their personal views and prior training on probability and uncertainty. Although textbooks and courses should reflect and anticipate this dual reality, they rarely do so. This accessible textbook explains, discusses, and applies both the frequentist and Bayesian theoretical frameworks to fit the different types of statistical models that allow an analysis of the types of data most commonly gathered by life scientists. It presents the material in an informal, approachable, and progressive manner suitable for readers with only a basic knowledge of calculus and statistics. Statistical Modeling with R is aimed at senior undergraduate and graduate students, professional researchers, and practitioners throughout the life sciences, seeking to strengthen their understanding of quantitative methods and to apply them successfully to real world scenarios, whether in the fields of ecology, evolution, environmental studies, or computational biology.

Elements of Causal Inference

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Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262037319
Total Pages : 289 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Elements of Causal Inference by : Jonas Peters

Download or read book Elements of Causal Inference written by Jonas Peters and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2017-11-29 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning. The mathematization of causality is a relatively recent development, and has become increasingly important in data science and machine learning. This book offers a self-contained and concise introduction to causal models and how to learn them from data. After explaining the need for causal models and discussing some of the principles underlying causal inference, the book teaches readers how to use causal models: how to compute intervention distributions, how to infer causal models from observational and interventional data, and how causal ideas could be exploited for classical machine learning problems. All of these topics are discussed first in terms of two variables and then in the more general multivariate case. The bivariate case turns out to be a particularly hard problem for causal learning because there are no conditional independences as used by classical methods for solving multivariate cases. The authors consider analyzing statistical asymmetries between cause and effect to be highly instructive, and they report on their decade of intensive research into this problem. The book is accessible to readers with a background in machine learning or statistics, and can be used in graduate courses or as a reference for researchers. The text includes code snippets that can be copied and pasted, exercises, and an appendix with a summary of the most important technical concepts.

Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521686891
Total Pages : 654 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (868 download)

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Book Synopsis Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models by : Andrew Gelman

Download or read book Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models written by Andrew Gelman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2007 with total page 654 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 2007, is for the applied researcher performing data analysis using linear and nonlinear regression and multilevel models.

Causal Inference in Statistics

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119186862
Total Pages : 162 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (191 download)

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Book Synopsis Causal Inference in Statistics by : Judea Pearl

Download or read book Causal Inference in Statistics written by Judea Pearl and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-25 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: CAUSAL INFERENCE IN STATISTICS A Primer Causality is central to the understanding and use of data. Without an understanding of cause–effect relationships, we cannot use data to answer questions as basic as "Does this treatment harm or help patients?" But though hundreds of introductory texts are available on statistical methods of data analysis, until now, no beginner-level book has been written about the exploding arsenal of methods that can tease causal information from data. Causal Inference in Statistics fills that gap. Using simple examples and plain language, the book lays out how to define causal parameters; the assumptions necessary to estimate causal parameters in a variety of situations; how to express those assumptions mathematically; whether those assumptions have testable implications; how to predict the effects of interventions; and how to reason counterfactually. These are the foundational tools that any student of statistics needs to acquire in order to use statistical methods to answer causal questions of interest. This book is accessible to anyone with an interest in interpreting data, from undergraduates, professors, researchers, or to the interested layperson. Examples are drawn from a wide variety of fields, including medicine, public policy, and law; a brief introduction to probability and statistics is provided for the uninitiated; and each chapter comes with study questions to reinforce the readers understanding.

Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1439840954
Total Pages : 677 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (398 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition by : Andrew Gelman

Download or read book Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition written by Andrew Gelman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 677 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.

An Introduction to Causal Inference

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Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN 13 : 9781507894293
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (942 download)

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Book Synopsis An Introduction to Causal Inference by : Judea Pearl

Download or read book An Introduction to Causal Inference written by Judea Pearl and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper summarizes recent advances in causal inference and underscores the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underly all causal inferences, the languages used in formulating those assumptions, the conditional nature of all causal and counterfactual claims, and the methods that have been developed for the assessment of such claims. These advances are illustrated using a general theory of causation based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in Pearl (2000a), which subsumes and unifies other approaches to causation, and provides a coherent mathematical foundation for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper surveys the development of mathematical tools for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) answers to three types of causal queries: (1) queries about the effects of potential interventions, (also called "causal effects" or "policy evaluation") (2) queries about probabilities of counterfactuals, (including assessment of "regret," "attribution" or "causes of effects") and (3) queries about direct and indirect effects (also known as "mediation"). Finally, the paper defines the formal and conceptual relationships between the structural and potential-outcome frameworks and presents tools for a symbiotic analysis that uses the strong features of both. The tools are demonstrated in the analyses of mediation, causes of effects, and probabilities of causation. -- p. 1.

Methods Matter

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Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199890153
Total Pages : 414 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (998 download)

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Book Synopsis Methods Matter by : Richard J. Murnane

Download or read book Methods Matter written by Richard J. Murnane and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-09-17 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Educational policy-makers around the world constantly make decisions about how to use scarce resources to improve the education of children. Unfortunately, their decisions are rarely informed by evidence on the consequences of these initiatives in other settings. Nor are decisions typically accompanied by well-formulated plans to evaluate their causal impacts. As a result, knowledge about what works in different situations has been very slow to accumulate. Over the last several decades, advances in research methodology, administrative record keeping, and statistical software have dramatically increased the potential for researchers to conduct compelling evaluations of the causal impacts of educational interventions, and the number of well-designed studies is growing. Written in clear, concise prose, Methods Matter: Improving Causal Inference in Educational and Social Science Research offers essential guidance for those who evaluate educational policies. Using numerous examples of high-quality studies that have evaluated the causal impacts of important educational interventions, the authors go beyond the simple presentation of new analytical methods to discuss the controversies surrounding each study, and provide heuristic explanations that are also broadly accessible. Murnane and Willett offer strong methodological insights on causal inference, while also examining the consequences of a wide variety of educational policies implemented in the U.S. and abroad. Representing a unique contribution to the literature surrounding educational research, this landmark text will be invaluable for students and researchers in education and public policy, as well as those interested in social science.

The Bayesian Paradigm of Robustness Indices of Causal Inferences

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780355752991
Total Pages : 165 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (529 download)

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Book Synopsis The Bayesian Paradigm of Robustness Indices of Causal Inferences by : Tenglong Li

Download or read book The Bayesian Paradigm of Robustness Indices of Causal Inferences written by Tenglong Li and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: