Bayesian Nonparametric Methods for Causal Inference and Prediction

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 358 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (126 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Nonparametric Methods for Causal Inference and Prediction by : Bret Michael Zeldow

Download or read book Bayesian Nonparametric Methods for Causal Inference and Prediction written by Bret Michael Zeldow and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this thesis we present novel approaches to regression and causal inference using popular Bayesian nonparametric methods. Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a Bayesian machine learning algorithm in which the conditional distribution is modeled as a sum of regression trees. We extend BART into a semiparametric generalized linear model framework so that a portion of the covariates are modeled nonparametrically using BART and a subset of the covariates have parametric form. This presents an attractive option for research in which only a few covariates are of scientific interest but there are other covariates must be controlled for. Under certain causal assumptions, this model can be used as a structural mean model. We demonstrate this method by examining the effect of initiating certain antiretroviral medications has on mortality among HIV/HCV coinfected subjects. In later chapters, we propose a joint model for a continuous longitudinal outcome and baseline covariates using penalized splines and an enriched Dirichlet process (EDP) prior. This joint model decomposes into local linear mixed models for the outcome given the covariates and marginals for the covariates. The EDP prior that is placed on the regression parameters and the parameters on the covariates induces clustering among subjects determined by similarity in their regression parameters and nested within those clusters, sub-clusters based on similarity in the covariate space. When there are a large number of covariates, we find improved prediction over the same model with Dirichlet process (DP) priors. Since the model clusters based on regression parameters, this model also serves as a functional clustering algorithm where one does not have to choose the number of clusters beforehand. We use the method to estimate incidence rates of diabetes when longitudinal laboratory values from electronic health records are used to augment diagnostic codes for outcome identification. We later extend this work by using our EDP model in a causal inference setting using the parametric g-formula. We demonstrate this using electronic health record data consisting of subjects initiating second generation antipsychotics.

Bayesian Nonparametrics for Causal Inference and Missing Data

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 9780367341008
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (41 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Nonparametrics for Causal Inference and Missing Data by : Michael J. Daniels

Download or read book Bayesian Nonparametrics for Causal Inference and Missing Data written by Michael J. Daniels and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-08-23 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Nonparametric Methods for Missing Data and Causal Inference provides an overview of flexible Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) methods for modeling joint or conditional distributions and functional relationships, and their interplay with causal inference and missing data. This book emphasizes the importance of making untestable assumptions to identify estimands of interest, such as missing at random assumption for missing data and unconfoundedness for causal inference in observational studies. The BNP approach can account for possible violations of assumptions and minimize concerns about model misspecification, unlike parametric methods. The overall strategy is to first specify BNP models for observed data and second to specify additional uncheckable assumptions to identify estimands of interest. The book is divided into three parts. Part I develops the key concepts in causal inference and missing data, and reviews relevant concepts in Bayesian inference. Part II introduces the fundamental BNP tools required to address causal inference and missing data problems. Part III shows how the BNP approach can be applied in a variety of case studies. The datasets in the case studies come from electronic health records data, survey data, cohort studies, and randomized clinical trials. Features: * Thorough discussion of both BNP and its interplay with causal inference and missing data * How to use BNP and g-computation for causal inference and nonignorable missingness * How to derive and calibrate sensitivity parameters to assess sensitivity to deviations from uncheckable causal and/or missingness assumptions * Detailed case studies illustrating the application of BNP methods to causal inference and missing data * R-code and/or packages to implement BNP in causal inference and missing data problems The book is primarily aimed at researchers and graduate students from statistics and biostatistics. It will also serve as a useful practical reference for mathematically-sophisticated epidemiologists and medical researchers.

Nonparametric Bayesian Inference in Biostatistics

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319195182
Total Pages : 448 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (191 download)

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Book Synopsis Nonparametric Bayesian Inference in Biostatistics by : Riten Mitra

Download or read book Nonparametric Bayesian Inference in Biostatistics written by Riten Mitra and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-07-25 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As chapters in this book demonstrate, BNP has important uses in clinical sciences and inference for issues like unknown partitions in genomics. Nonparametric Bayesian approaches (BNP) play an ever expanding role in biostatistical inference from use in proteomics to clinical trials. Many research problems involve an abundance of data and require flexible and complex probability models beyond the traditional parametric approaches. As this book's expert contributors show, BNP approaches can be the answer. Survival Analysis, in particular survival regression, has traditionally used BNP, but BNP's potential is now very broad. This applies to important tasks like arrangement of patients into clinically meaningful subpopulations and segmenting the genome into functionally distinct regions. This book is designed to both review and introduce application areas for BNP. While existing books provide theoretical foundations, this book connects theory to practice through engaging examples and research questions. Chapters cover: clinical trials, spatial inference, proteomics, genomics, clustering, survival analysis and ROC curve.

Bayesian Nonparametrics

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139484605
Total Pages : 309 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Nonparametrics by : Nils Lid Hjort

Download or read book Bayesian Nonparametrics written by Nils Lid Hjort and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-12 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian nonparametrics works - theoretically, computationally. The theory provides highly flexible models whose complexity grows appropriately with the amount of data. Computational issues, though challenging, are no longer intractable. All that is needed is an entry point: this intelligent book is the perfect guide to what can seem a forbidding landscape. Tutorial chapters by Ghosal, Lijoi and Prünster, Teh and Jordan, and Dunson advance from theory, to basic models and hierarchical modeling, to applications and implementation, particularly in computer science and biostatistics. These are complemented by companion chapters by the editors and Griffin and Quintana, providing additional models, examining computational issues, identifying future growth areas, and giving links to related topics. This coherent text gives ready access both to underlying principles and to state-of-the-art practice. Specific examples are drawn from information retrieval, NLP, machine vision, computational biology, biostatistics, and bioinformatics.

Bayesian Nonparametric Data Analysis

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319189689
Total Pages : 203 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (191 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Nonparametric Data Analysis by : Peter Müller

Download or read book Bayesian Nonparametric Data Analysis written by Peter Müller and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-06-17 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reviews nonparametric Bayesian methods and models that have proven useful in the context of data analysis. Rather than providing an encyclopedic review of probability models, the book’s structure follows a data analysis perspective. As such, the chapters are organized by traditional data analysis problems. In selecting specific nonparametric models, simpler and more traditional models are favored over specialized ones. The discussed methods are illustrated with a wealth of examples, including applications ranging from stylized examples to case studies from recent literature. The book also includes an extensive discussion of computational methods and details on their implementation. R code for many examples is included in online software pages.

Bayesian Unimodal Density Regression for Causal Inference

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 10 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (16 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Unimodal Density Regression for Causal Inference by : George Karabatsos

Download or read book Bayesian Unimodal Density Regression for Causal Inference written by George Karabatsos and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Karabatsos and Walker (2011) introduced a new Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) regression model. Through analyses of real and simulated data, they showed that the BNP regression model outperforms other parametric and nonparametric regression models of common use, in terms of predictive accuracy of the outcome (dependent) variable. The other, outperformed, regression models include random-effects/hierarchical linear and generalized linear models, when the random effects were assumed to be normally-distributed (Laird & Ware, 1982; Breslow & Clayton 1993), and when the random effects were more generally modeled by a nonparametric, Dirichlet process (DP) mixture prior (Kleinman & Ibrahim, 1998a,1998b). The authors argue that the new Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) regression model provides a novel, richer, and more valid approach to causal inference, which allows the researcher to investigate how treatments causally change the entire distribution (density) of (potential) outcomes, including not only the mean, but also other features of the outcome variable, such as quantiles (e.g., median, 10th percentile), and the variance. They illustrate the BNP model through the analysis of observational data, to estimate the causal effect of exposure to excellent high school math education (versus non-exposure, the control), on ACT math achievement. In the data analysis, they also compare the predictive accuracy of the new BNP model against other regression models. These other models assume symmetric distributions for the outcomes, and for the inverse-link function of the propensity score model (when specified), and have been recommended for causal inference from observational data. The other models include the normal linear regression model, having one interaction between (1) subject (pre-treatment) covariates, (2) treatment indicators, and (3) indicators of (greater than or equal) 5 matched groups of subjects, formed either by subclassification (Rosenbaum & Rubin, 1984) or optimal full matching on the estimated propensity score. They also compare with the BART model, which provides a very flexible regression of observed outcomes on the treatment variable and the covariates. Extensive data-based simulation studies have shown that, in terms of bias and mean square error in causal effect estimation, these linear regression models and BART outperform normal linear regression of outcomes using (1) propensity-score-based pair-matching or subclassification alone, (2) treatment indicators and estimated propensity scores as covariates, and (3) observation weights defined by inverse of propensity score estimates, when the only covariate is a treatment indicator (Robins, et al. 2000), and when the linear model also includes subject covariates (Kang & Schafer, 2007; Schafer & Kang, 2008; Hill, 2011). These results seemed to hold true, especially when both the outcome and propensity score models were misspecified for the data, which, arguably, almost always occurs in practice. Through the analysis of an observational data set on math achievement, the authors showed that the new BNP regression model can provide richer causal inferences with higher predictive accuracy, compared to typical causal models which focus inference on the mean outcome, and which make restrictive parametric assumptions about the outcome variable and about the propensity score model. The new BNP model allows one to investigate how treatments causally change any interesting aspect of the distribution (density) of (potential) outcomes, in a flexible manner. (Contains 3 tables and 1 figure.) [This research is supported by the Chicago Teacher Partnership Project.].

Bayesian Nonparametric Prediction and Statistical Inference

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (227 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Nonparametric Prediction and Statistical Inference by : Bruce M. Hill

Download or read book Bayesian Nonparametric Prediction and Statistical Inference written by Bruce M. Hill and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The problem of Bayesian nonparametric prediction and statistical inference is formulated and discussed. A solution is proposed based upon A sub n and H sub n as in Hill (1968). The meaning of parameters in the subjective Bayesian theory of Bruno de Finetti is discussed in connection both with A sub n and with conventional parametric models. It is argued that the usual sharp distinction between prediction and parametric inference is largely illusory. The finite version of de Finetti's theorem is emphasized for the practice of statistics, with the infinite case used only to obtain approximations and insight. (kr).

Applied Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference from Incomplete-Data Perspectives

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780470090435
Total Pages : 448 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (94 download)

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Book Synopsis Applied Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference from Incomplete-Data Perspectives by : Andrew Gelman

Download or read book Applied Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference from Incomplete-Data Perspectives written by Andrew Gelman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-09-03 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together a collection of articles on statistical methods relating to missing data analysis, including multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables, and Bayesian inference. Covering new research topics and real-world examples which do not feature in many standard texts. The book is dedicated to Professor Don Rubin (Harvard). Don Rubin has made fundamental contributions to the study of missing data. Key features of the book include: Comprehensive coverage of an imporant area for both research and applications. Adopts a pragmatic approach to describing a wide range of intermediate and advanced statistical techniques. Covers key topics such as multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables and Bayesian inference. Includes a number of applications from the social and health sciences. Edited and authored by highly respected researchers in the area.

Bayesian Nonparametrics

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387226540
Total Pages : 311 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (872 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Nonparametrics by : J.K. Ghosh

Download or read book Bayesian Nonparametrics written by J.K. Ghosh and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-05-11 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the first systematic treatment of Bayesian nonparametric methods and the theory behind them. It will also appeal to statisticians in general. The book is primarily aimed at graduate students and can be used as the text for a graduate course in Bayesian non-parametrics.

Bayesian Nonparametrics via Neural Networks

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Publisher : SIAM
ISBN 13 : 9780898718423
Total Pages : 106 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (184 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Nonparametrics via Neural Networks by : Herbert K. H. Lee

Download or read book Bayesian Nonparametrics via Neural Networks written by Herbert K. H. Lee and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2004-01-01 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Nonparametrics via Neural Networks is the first book to focus on neural networks in the context of nonparametric regression and classification, working within the Bayesian paradigm. Its goal is to demystify neural networks, putting them firmly in a statistical context rather than treating them as a black box. This approach is in contrast to existing books, which tend to treat neural networks as a machine learning algorithm instead of a statistical model. Once this underlying statistical model is recognized, other standard statistical techniques can be applied to improve the model. The Bayesian approach allows better accounting for uncertainty. This book covers uncertainty in model choice and methods to deal with this issue, exploring a number of ideas from statistics and machine learning. A detailed discussion on the choice of prior and new noninformative priors is included, along with a substantial literature review. Written for statisticians using statistical terminology, Bayesian Nonparametrics via Neural Networks will lead statisticians to an increased understanding of the neural network model and its applicability to real-world problems.

Bayesian Methods for Nonlinear Classification and Regression

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780471490364
Total Pages : 302 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (93 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Methods for Nonlinear Classification and Regression by : David G. T. Denison

Download or read book Bayesian Methods for Nonlinear Classification and Regression written by David G. T. Denison and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2002-05-06 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bei der Regressionsanalyse von Datenmaterial erhält man leider selten lineare oder andere einfache Zusammenhänge (parametrische Modelle). Dieses Buch hilft Ihnen, auch komplexere, nichtparametrische Modelle zu verstehen und zu beherrschen. Stärken und Schwächen jedes einzelnen Modells werden durch die Anwendung auf Standarddatensätze demonstriert. Verbreitete nichtparametrische Modelle werden mit Hilfe von Bayes-Verfahren in einen kohärenten wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretischen Zusammenhang gebracht.

Bayesian Nonparametric Methods for Non-exchangeable Data

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 358 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (852 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Nonparametric Methods for Non-exchangeable Data by : Nicholas J. Foti

Download or read book Bayesian Nonparametric Methods for Non-exchangeable Data written by Nicholas J. Foti and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian nonparametric methods have become increasingly popular in machine learning for their ability to allow the data to determine model complexity. In particular, Bayesian nonparametric versions of common latent variable models can learn as effective dimension of the latent space. Examples include mixture models, latent feature models and topic models, where the number of components, features, or topics need not be specified a priori. A drawback of many of these models is that they assume the observations are exchangeable, that is, any dependencies between observations are ignored. This thesis contributes general methods to incorporate covariates into Bayesian nonparametric models and inference algorithms to learn with these models. First, we will present a flexible class of dependent Bayesian nonparametric priors to induce covariate-dependence into a variety of latent variable models used in machine learning. The proposed framework has nice analytic properites and admits a simple inference algorithm. We show how the framework can be used to construct a covariate-dependent latent feature model and a time-varying topic model. Second, we describe the first general purpose inference algorithm for a large family of dependent mixture models. Using the idea of slice-sampling, the algorithm is truncation-free and fast, showing that inference can de done efficiently despite the added complexity that covariate-dependence entails. Last, we construct a Bayesian nonparametric framework to couple multiple latent variable models and apply the framework to learning from multiple views of data.

Bayesian Nonparametric Probabilistic Methods in Machine Learning

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Nonparametric Probabilistic Methods in Machine Learning by : Justin C. Sahs

Download or read book Bayesian Nonparametric Probabilistic Methods in Machine Learning written by Justin C. Sahs and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many aspects of modern science, business and engineering have become data-centric, relying on tools from Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Practitioners and researchers in these fields need tools that can incorporate observed data into rich models of uncertainty to make discoveries and predictions. One area of study that provides such models is the field of Bayesian Nonparametrics. This dissertation is focused on furthering the development of this field. After reviewing the relevant background and surveying the field, we consider two areas of structured data: - We first consider relational data that takes the form of a 2-dimensional array--such as social network data. We introduce a novel nonparametric model that takes advantage of a representation theorem about arrays whose column and row order is unimportant. We then develop an inference algorithm for this model and evaluate it experimentally. - Second, we consider the classification of streaming data whose distribution evolves over time. We introduce a novel nonparametric model that finds and exploits a dynamic hierarchical structure underlying the data. We present an algorithm for inference in this model and show experimental results. We then extend our streaming model to handle the emergence of novel and recurrent classes, and evaluate the extended model experimentally.

Inference on Distribution Functions Through Bayesian Nonparametric Methods

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (42 download)

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Book Synopsis Inference on Distribution Functions Through Bayesian Nonparametric Methods by : Monica L. Brown

Download or read book Inference on Distribution Functions Through Bayesian Nonparametric Methods written by Monica L. Brown and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

An Introduction to Causal Inference

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Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN 13 : 9781507894293
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (942 download)

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Book Synopsis An Introduction to Causal Inference by : Judea Pearl

Download or read book An Introduction to Causal Inference written by Judea Pearl and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper summarizes recent advances in causal inference and underscores the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underly all causal inferences, the languages used in formulating those assumptions, the conditional nature of all causal and counterfactual claims, and the methods that have been developed for the assessment of such claims. These advances are illustrated using a general theory of causation based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in Pearl (2000a), which subsumes and unifies other approaches to causation, and provides a coherent mathematical foundation for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper surveys the development of mathematical tools for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) answers to three types of causal queries: (1) queries about the effects of potential interventions, (also called "causal effects" or "policy evaluation") (2) queries about probabilities of counterfactuals, (including assessment of "regret," "attribution" or "causes of effects") and (3) queries about direct and indirect effects (also known as "mediation"). Finally, the paper defines the formal and conceptual relationships between the structural and potential-outcome frameworks and presents tools for a symbiotic analysis that uses the strong features of both. The tools are demonstrated in the analyses of mediation, causes of effects, and probabilities of causation. -- p. 1.

Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1439840954
Total Pages : 677 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (398 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition by : Andrew Gelman

Download or read book Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition written by Andrew Gelman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 677 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.

Bayesian Nonparametric Methods with Applications in Longitudinal, Heterogeneous and Spatiotemporal Data

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 109 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (935 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Nonparametric Methods with Applications in Longitudinal, Heterogeneous and Spatiotemporal Data by : Li Duan

Download or read book Bayesian Nonparametric Methods with Applications in Longitudinal, Heterogeneous and Spatiotemporal Data written by Li Duan and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nonparametric methods provide flexible accommodation to the different structures in the data without imposing strong assumptions. Bayesian consideration of nonparametric models, such as Gaussian process, Dirichlet process and decision tree enables straightforward computation and automatic regularization. In this dissertation, we developed three novel nonparametric methods for handling different types of data. For the longitudinal and time-to-event data, we utilized the multiple subject composition and repeated measurement, and designed a hierarchical Gaussian process that enables extrapolation for personalized forecast. For the regression of heterogeneous data, we combined the clustering properties of the Dirichlet process and the nonlinear incorporation of predictors in decision tree, and developed an efficient method for handling heterogeneity and ensemble estimation. For the spatiotemporal data, we first designed a performant algorithm for stationary Gaussian process, and then extended it to allow non-stationarity and non-Gaussianness of the complex data. We demonstrate the advantages of the Bayesian modeling in latent variable sampling, missing data handling, algorithm acceleration, accurate prediction and probabilistic interpretation.