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Bayesian Decision Theory For Determining The Optimal Size Of Experiments
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Book Synopsis Intervention Research by : Mark W. Fraser
Download or read book Intervention Research written by Mark W. Fraser and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2009-04-02 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When social workers draw on experience, theory, or data in order to develop new strategies or enhance existing ones, they are conducting intervention research. This relatively new field involves program design, implementation, and evaluation and requires a theory-based, systematic approach. Intervention Research presents such a framework. The five-step strategy described in this brief but thorough book ushers the reader from an idea's germination through the process of writing a treatment manual, assessing program efficacy and effectiveness, and disseminating findings. Rich with examples drawn from child welfare, school-based prevention, medicine, and juvenile justice, Intervention Research relates each step of the process to current social work practice. It also explains how to adapt interventions for new contexts, and provides extensive examples of intervention research in fields such as child welfare, school-based prevention, medicine, and juvenile justice, and offers insights about changes and challenges in the field. This innovative pocket guide will serve as a solid reference for those already in the field, as well as help the next generation of social workers develop skills to contribute to the evolving field of intervention research.
Book Synopsis Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis by : James O. Berger
Download or read book Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis written by James O. Berger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 633 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this new edition the author has added substantial material on Bayesian analysis, including lengthy new sections on such important topics as empirical and hierarchical Bayes analysis, Bayesian calculation, Bayesian communication, and group decision making. With these changes, the book can be used as a self-contained introduction to Bayesian analysis. In addition, much of the decision-theoretic portion of the text was updated, including new sections covering such modern topics as minimax multivariate (Stein) estimation.
Book Synopsis The Birnbaum-Saunders Distribution by : Victor Leiva
Download or read book The Birnbaum-Saunders Distribution written by Victor Leiva and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2015-10-26 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Birnbaum-Saunders Distribution presents the statistical theory, methodology, and applications of the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution, a very flexible distribution for modeling different types of data (mainly lifetime data). The book describes the most recent theoretical developments of this model, including properties, transformations and related distributions, lifetime analysis, and shape analysis. It discusses methods of inference based on uncensored and censored data, goodness-of-fit tests, and random number generation algorithms for the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution, also presenting existing and future applications. - Introduces inference in the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution - Provides a comprehensive review of the statistical theory and methodology of the Birnbaum-Distribution - Discusses different applications of the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution - Explains characterization and the lifetime analysis
Book Synopsis Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition by : Andrew Gelman
Download or read book Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition written by Andrew Gelman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 677 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.
Book Synopsis Statistical Decision Theory by : James Berger
Download or read book Statistical Decision Theory written by James Berger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision theory is generally taught in one of two very different ways. When of opti taught by theoretical statisticians, it tends to be presented as a set of mathematical techniques mality principles, together with a collection of various statistical procedures. When useful in establishing the optimality taught by applied decision theorists, it is usually a course in Bayesian analysis, showing how this one decision principle can be applied in various practical situations. The original goal I had in writing this book was to find some middle ground. I wanted a book which discussed the more theoretical ideas and techniques of decision theory, but in a manner that was constantly oriented towards solving statistical problems. In particular, it seemed crucial to include a discussion of when and why the various decision prin ciples should be used, and indeed why decision theory is needed at all. This original goal seemed indicated by my philosophical position at the time, which can best be described as basically neutral. I felt that no one approach to decision theory (or statistics) was clearly superior to the others, and so planned a rather low key and impartial presentation of the competing ideas. In the course of writing the book, however, I turned into a rabid Bayesian. There was no single cause for this conversion; just a gradual realization that things seemed to ultimately make sense only when looked at from the Bayesian viewpoint.
Book Synopsis Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Health-Care Evaluation by : David J. Spiegelhalter
Download or read book Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Health-Care Evaluation written by David J. Spiegelhalter and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-01-16 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: READ ALL ABOUT IT! David Spiegelhalter has recently joined the ranks of Isaac Newton, Charles Darwin and Stephen Hawking by becoming a fellow of the Royal Society. Originating from the Medical Research Council’s biostatistics unit, David has played a leading role in the Bristol heart surgery and Harold Shipman inquiries. Order a copy of this author’s comprehensive text TODAY! The Bayesian approach involves synthesising data and judgement in order to reach conclusions about unknown quantities and make predictions. Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular in recent years, notably in medical research, and although there are a number of books on Bayesian analysis, few cover clinical trials and biostatistical applications in any detail. Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Health-Care Evaluation provides a valuable overview of this rapidly evolving field, including basic Bayesian ideas, prior distributions, clinical trials, observational studies, evidence synthesis and cost-effectiveness analysis. Covers a broad array of essential topics, building from the basics to more advanced techniques. Illustrated throughout by detailed case studies and worked examples Includes exercises in all chapters Accessible to anyone with a basic knowledge of statistics Authors are at the forefront of research into Bayesian methods in medical research Accompanied by a Web site featuring data sets and worked examples using Excel and WinBUGS - the most widely used Bayesian modelling package Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Health-Care Evaluation is suitable for students and researchers in medical statistics, statisticians in the pharmaceutical industry, and anyone involved in conducting clinical trials and assessment of health-care technology.
Book Synopsis Bayesian Theory by : José M. Bernardo
Download or read book Bayesian Theory written by José M. Bernardo and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-09-25 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This highly acclaimed text, now available in paperback, provides a thorough account of key concepts and theoretical results, with particular emphasis on viewing statistical inference as a special case of decision theory. Information-theoretic concepts play a central role in the development of the theory, which provides, in particular, a detailed discussion of the problem of specification of so-called prior ignorance . The work is written from the authors s committed Bayesian perspective, but an overview of non-Bayesian theories is also provided, and each chapter contains a wide-ranging critical re-examination of controversial issues. The level of mathematics used is such that most material is accessible to readers with knowledge of advanced calculus. In particular, no knowledge of abstract measure theory is assumed, and the emphasis throughout is on statistical concepts rather than rigorous mathematics. The book will be an ideal source for all students and researchers in statistics, mathematics, decision analysis, economic and business studies, and all branches of science and engineering, who wish to further their understanding of Bayesian statistics
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Book Synopsis Inference, Method and Decision by : R.D. Rosenkrantz
Download or read book Inference, Method and Decision written by R.D. Rosenkrantz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book grew out of previously published papers of mine composed over a period of years; they have been reworked (sometimes beyond recognition) so as to form a reasonably coherent whole. Part One treats of informative inference. I argue (Chapter 2) that the traditional principle of induction in its clearest formulation (that laws are confirmed by their positive cases) is clearly false. Other formulations in terms of the 'uniformity of nature' or the 'resemblance of the future to the past' seem to me hopelessly unclear. From a Bayesian point of view, 'learning from experience' goes by conditionalization (Bayes' rule). The traditional stum bling block for Bayesians has been to fmd objective probability inputs to conditionalize upon. Subjective Bayesians allow any probability inputs that do not violate the usual axioms of probability. Many subjectivists grant that this liberality seems prodigal but own themselves unable to think of additional constraints that might plausibly be imposed. To be sure, if we could agree on the correct probabilistic representation of 'ignorance' (or absence of pertinent data), then all probabilities obtained by applying Bayes' rule to an 'informationless' prior would be objective. But familiar contra dictions, like the Bertrand paradox, are thought to vitiate all attempts to objectify 'ignorance'. BuUding on the earlier work of Sir Harold Jeffreys, E. T. Jaynes, and the more recent work ofG. E. P. Box and G. E. Tiao, I have elected to bite this bullet. In Chapter 3, I develop and defend an objectivist Bayesian approach.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Design and Analysis of Experiments by : Angela Dean
Download or read book Handbook of Design and Analysis of Experiments written by Angela Dean and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-06-26 with total page 946 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This carefully edited collection synthesizes the state of the art in the theory and applications of designed experiments and their analyses. It provides a detailed overview of the tools required for the optimal design of experiments and their analyses. The handbook covers many recent advances in the field, including designs for nonlinear models and algorithms applicable to a wide variety of design problems. It also explores the extensive use of experimental designs in marketing, the pharmaceutical industry, engineering and other areas.
Book Synopsis Applied Statistical Decision Theory by : Howard Raiffa
Download or read book Applied Statistical Decision Theory written by Howard Raiffa and published by . This book was released on 1966 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Decision Theory by : Giovanni Parmigiani
Download or read book Decision Theory written by Giovanni Parmigiani and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-05-26 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision theory provides a formal framework for making logical choices in the face of uncertainty. Given a set of alternatives, a set of consequences, and a correspondence between those sets, decision theory offers conceptually simple procedures for choice. This book presents an overview of the fundamental concepts and outcomes of rational decision making under uncertainty, highlighting the implications for statistical practice. The authors have developed a series of self contained chapters focusing on bridging the gaps between the different fields that have contributed to rational decision making and presenting ideas in a unified framework and notation while respecting and highlighting the different and sometimes conflicting perspectives. This book: * Provides a rich collection of techniques and procedures. * Discusses the foundational aspects and modern day practice. * Links foundations to practical applications in biostatistics, computer science, engineering and economics. * Presents different perspectives and controversies to encourage readers to form their own opinion of decision making and statistics. Decision Theory is fundamental to all scientific disciplines, including biostatistics, computer science, economics and engineering. Anyone interested in the whys and wherefores of statistical science will find much to enjoy in this book.
Book Synopsis The Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments by : Thomas J. Santner
Download or read book The Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments written by Thomas J. Santner and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-01-08 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes methods for designing and analyzing experiments that are conducted using a computer code, a computer experiment, and, when possible, a physical experiment. Computer experiments continue to increase in popularity as surrogates for and adjuncts to physical experiments. Since the publication of the first edition, there have been many methodological advances and software developments to implement these new methodologies. The computer experiments literature has emphasized the construction of algorithms for various data analysis tasks (design construction, prediction, sensitivity analysis, calibration among others), and the development of web-based repositories of designs for immediate application. While it is written at a level that is accessible to readers with Masters-level training in Statistics, the book is written in sufficient detail to be useful for practitioners and researchers. New to this revised and expanded edition: • An expanded presentation of basic material on computer experiments and Gaussian processes with additional simulations and examples • A new comparison of plug-in prediction methodologies for real-valued simulator output • An enlarged discussion of space-filling designs including Latin Hypercube designs (LHDs), near-orthogonal designs, and nonrectangular regions • A chapter length description of process-based designs for optimization, to improve good overall fit, quantile estimation, and Pareto optimization • A new chapter describing graphical and numerical sensitivity analysis tools • Substantial new material on calibration-based prediction and inference for calibration parameters • Lists of software that can be used to fit models discussed in the book to aid practitioners
Book Synopsis Bayesian Decision Analysis by : Jim Q. Smith
Download or read book Bayesian Decision Analysis written by Jim Q. Smith and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-09-23 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian decision analysis supports principled decision making in complex domains. This textbook takes the reader from a formal analysis of simple decision problems to a careful analysis of the sometimes very complex and data rich structures confronted by practitioners. The book contains basic material on subjective probability theory and multi-attribute utility theory, event and decision trees, Bayesian networks, influence diagrams and causal Bayesian networks. The author demonstrates when and how the theory can be successfully applied to a given decision problem, how data can be sampled and expert judgements elicited to support this analysis, and when and how an effective Bayesian decision analysis can be implemented. Evolving from a third-year undergraduate course taught by the author over many years, all of the material in this book will be accessible to a student who has completed introductory courses in probability and mathematical statistics.
Book Synopsis Sampling for Natural Resource Monitoring by : Jaap de Gruijter
Download or read book Sampling for Natural Resource Monitoring written by Jaap de Gruijter and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-04-26 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents statistical knowledge, and methodology of sampling and data analysis specifically for spatial inventory and monitoring of local natural resources. The text shows how statistical methodology can be embedded in real-life spatial inventory and monitoring projects. The book functions as a design guide for efficient sampling schemes and monitoring systems can be designed, consistent with the aims and constraints of the project.
Book Synopsis The Construction of Optimal Stated Choice Experiments by : Deborah J. Street
Download or read book The Construction of Optimal Stated Choice Experiments written by Deborah J. Street and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-07-20 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most comprehensive and applied discussion of stated choice experiment constructions available The Construction of Optimal Stated Choice Experiments provides an accessible introduction to the construction methods needed to create the best possible designs for use in modeling decision-making. Many aspects of the design of a generic stated choice experiment are independent of its area of application, and until now there has been no single book describing these constructions. This book begins with a brief description of the various areas where stated choice experiments are applicable, including marketing and health economics, transportation, environmental resource economics, and public welfare analysis. The authors focus on recent research results on the construction of optimal and near-optimal choice experiments and conclude with guidelines and insight on how to properly implement these results. Features of the book include: Construction of generic stated choice experiments for the estimation of main effects only, as well as experiments for the estimation of main effects plus two-factor interactions Constructions for choice sets of any size and for attributes with any number of levels A discussion of designs that contain a none option or a common base option Practical techniques for the implementation of the constructions Class-tested material that presents theoretical discussion of optimal design Complete and extensive references to the mathematical and statistical literature for the constructions Exercise sets in most chapters, which reinforce the understanding of the presented material The Construction of Optimal Stated Choice Experiments serves as an invaluable reference guide for applied statisticians and practitioners in the areas of marketing, health economics, transport, and environmental evaluation. It is also ideal as a supplemental text for courses in the design of experiments, decision support systems, and choice models. A companion web site is available for readers to access web-based software that can be used to implement the constructions described in the book.
Book Synopsis A First Course in the Numerical Analysis of Differential Equations by : A. Iserles
Download or read book A First Course in the Numerical Analysis of Differential Equations written by A. Iserles and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009 with total page 481 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: lead the reader to a theoretical understanding of the subject without neglecting its practical aspects. The outcome is a textbook that is mathematically honest and rigorous and provides its target audience with a wide range of skills in both ordinary and partial differential equations." --Book Jacket.
