Bayesian Adaptive Sampling for Discrete Design Alternatives in Conceptual Design

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (88 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Adaptive Sampling for Discrete Design Alternatives in Conceptual Design by : Jose Eugenio Valenzuela-Del Rio

Download or read book Bayesian Adaptive Sampling for Discrete Design Alternatives in Conceptual Design written by Jose Eugenio Valenzuela-Del Rio and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The number of technology alternatives has lately grown to satisfy the increasingly demanding goals in modern engineering. These technology alternatives are handled in the design process as either concepts or categorical design inputs. Additionally, designers desire to bring into early design more and more accurate, but also computationally burdensome, simulation tools to obtain better performing initial designs that are more valuable in subsequent design stages. It constrains the computational budget to optimize the design space. These two factors unveil the need of a conceptual design methodology to use more efficiently sophisticated tools for engineering problems with several concept solutions and categorical design choices. Enhanced initial designs and discrete alternative selection are pursued. Advances in computational speed and the development of Bayesian adaptive sampling techniques have enabled the industry to move from the use of look-up tables and simplified models to complex physics-based tools in conceptual design. These techniques focus computational resources on promising design areas. Nevertheless, the vast majority of the work has been done on problems with continuous spaces, whereas concepts and categories are treated independently. However, observations show that engineering objectives experience similar topographical trends across many engineering alternatives. In order to address these challenges, two meta-models are developed. The first one borrows the Hamming distance and function space norms from machine learning and functional analysis, respectively. These distances allow defining categorical metrics that are used to build an unique probabilistic surrogate whose domain includes, not only continuous and integer variables, but also categorical ones. The second meta-model is based on a multi-fidelity approach that enhances a concept prediction with previous concept observations. These methodologies leverage similar trends seen from observations and make a better use of sample points increasing the quality of the output in the discrete alternative selection and initial designs for a given analysis budget. An extension of stochastic mixed-integer optimization techniques to include the categorical dimension is developed by adding appropriate generation, mutation, and crossover operators. The resulted stochastic algorithm is employed to adaptively sample mixed-integer-categorical design spaces. The proposed surrogates are compared against traditional independent methods for a set of canonical problems and a physics-based rotor-craft model on a screened design space. Next, adaptive sampling algorithms on the developed surrogates are applied to the same problems. These tests provide evidence of the merit of the proposed methodologies. Finally, a multi-objective rotor-craft design application is performed in a large domain space. This thesis provides several novel academic contributions. The first contribution is the development of new efficient surrogates for systems with categorical design choices. Secondly, an adaptive sampling algorithm is proposed for systems with mixed-integer-categorical design spaces. Finally, previously sampled concepts can be brought to construct efficient surrogates of novel concepts. With engineering judgment, design community could apply these contributions to discrete alternative selection and initial design assessment when similar topographical trends are observed across different categories and/or concepts. Also, it could be crucial to overcome the current cost of carrying a set of concepts and wider design spaces in the categorical dimension forward into preliminary design.

Adaptive Sampling Designs

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642336566
Total Pages : 78 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (423 download)

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Book Synopsis Adaptive Sampling Designs by : George A.F. Seber

Download or read book Adaptive Sampling Designs written by George A.F. Seber and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-10-23 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims to provide an overview of some adaptive techniques used in estimating parameters for finite populations where the sampling at any stage depends on the sampling information obtained to date. The sample adapts to new information as it comes in. These methods are especially used for sparse and clustered populations. Written by two acknowledged experts in the field of adaptive sampling.

A Bayesian/Geostatistical Approach to the Design of Adaptive Sampling Programs

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 15 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (125 download)

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Book Synopsis A Bayesian/Geostatistical Approach to the Design of Adaptive Sampling Programs by : RL. Johnson

Download or read book A Bayesian/Geostatistical Approach to the Design of Adaptive Sampling Programs written by RL. Johnson and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditional approaches to the delineation of subsurface contamination extent are costly and time consuming. Recent advances in field screening technologies present the possibility for adaptive sampling programs--programs that adapt or change to reflect sample results generated in the field. A coupled Bayesian/geostatistical methodology can be used to guide adaptive sampling programs. A Bayesian approach quantitatively combines "soft" information regarding contaminant location with "hard" sampling results. Soft information can include historical information, non-intrusive geophysical survey data, preliminary transport modeling results, past experience with similar sites, etc. Soft information is used to build an initial conceptual image of where contamination is likely to be. As samples are collected and analyzed, indicator kriging is used to update the initial conceptual image. New sampling locations are selected to minimize the uncertainty associated with contaminant extent. An example is provided that illustrates the methodology.

Bayesian Methods in Pharmaceutical Research

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351718673
Total Pages : 547 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (517 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Methods in Pharmaceutical Research by : Emmanuel Lesaffre

Download or read book Bayesian Methods in Pharmaceutical Research written by Emmanuel Lesaffre and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-04-15 with total page 547 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the early 2000s, there has been increasing interest within the pharmaceutical industry in the application of Bayesian methods at various stages of the research, development, manufacturing, and health economic evaluation of new health care interventions. In 2010, the first Applied Bayesian Biostatistics conference was held, with the primary objective to stimulate the practical implementation of Bayesian statistics, and to promote the added-value for accelerating the discovery and the delivery of new cures to patients. This book is a synthesis of the conferences and debates, providing an overview of Bayesian methods applied to nearly all stages of research and development, from early discovery to portfolio management. It highlights the value associated with sharing a vision with the regulatory authorities, academia, and pharmaceutical industry, with a view to setting up a common strategy for the appropriate use of Bayesian statistics for the benefit of patients. The book covers: Theory, methods, applications, and computing Bayesian biostatistics for clinical innovative designs Adding value with Real World Evidence Opportunities for rare, orphan diseases, and pediatric development Applied Bayesian biostatistics in manufacturing Decision making and Portfolio management Regulatory perspective and public health policies Statisticians and data scientists involved in the research, development, and approval of new cures will be inspired by the possible applications of Bayesian methods covered in the book. The methods, applications, and computational guidance will enable the reader to apply Bayesian methods in their own pharmaceutical research.

Innovative Strategies, Statistical Solutions and Simulations for Modern Clinical Trials

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351214527
Total Pages : 218 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (512 download)

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Book Synopsis Innovative Strategies, Statistical Solutions and Simulations for Modern Clinical Trials by : Mark Chang

Download or read book Innovative Strategies, Statistical Solutions and Simulations for Modern Clinical Trials written by Mark Chang and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-03-20 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This is truly an outstanding book. [It] brings together all of the latest research in clinical trials methodology and how it can be applied to drug development.... Chang et al provide applications to industry-supported trials. This will allow statisticians in the industry community to take these methods seriously." Jay Herson, Johns Hopkins University The pharmaceutical industry's approach to drug discovery and development has rapidly transformed in the last decade from the more traditional Research and Development (R & D) approach to a more innovative approach in which strategies are employed to compress and optimize the clinical development plan and associated timelines. However, these strategies are generally being considered on an individual trial basis and not as part of a fully integrated overall development program. Such optimization at the trial level is somewhat near-sighted and does not ensure cost, time, or development efficiency of the overall program. This book seeks to address this imbalance by establishing a statistical framework for overall/global clinical development optimization and providing tactics and techniques to support such optimization, including clinical trial simulations. Provides a statistical framework for achieve global optimization in each phase of the drug development process. Describes specific techniques to support optimization including adaptive designs, precision medicine, survival-endpoints, dose finding and multiple testing. Gives practical approaches to handling missing data in clinical trials using SAS. Looks at key controversial issues from both a clinical and statistical perspective. Presents a generous number of case studies from multiple therapeutic areas that help motivate and illustrate the statistical methods introduced in the book. Puts great emphasis on software implementation of the statistical methods with multiple examples of software code (both SAS and R). It is important for statisticians to possess a deep knowledge of the drug development process beyond statistical considerations. For these reasons, this book incorporates both statistical and "clinical/medical" perspectives.

Adaptive Design Theory and Implementation Using SAS and R

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1482256606
Total Pages : 689 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (822 download)

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Book Synopsis Adaptive Design Theory and Implementation Using SAS and R by : Mark Chang

Download or read book Adaptive Design Theory and Implementation Using SAS and R written by Mark Chang and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2014-12-01 with total page 689 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Get Up to Speed on Many Types of Adaptive DesignsSince the publication of the first edition, there have been remarkable advances in the methodology and application of adaptive trials. Incorporating many of these new developments, Adaptive Design Theory and Implementation Using SAS and R, Second Edition offers a detailed framework to understand the

Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 568 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports by :

Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Health-Care Evaluation

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780471499756
Total Pages : 416 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (997 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Health-Care Evaluation by : David J. Spiegelhalter

Download or read book Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Health-Care Evaluation written by David J. Spiegelhalter and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-01-16 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: READ ALL ABOUT IT! David Spiegelhalter has recently joined the ranks of Isaac Newton, Charles Darwin and Stephen Hawking by becoming a fellow of the Royal Society. Originating from the Medical Research Council’s biostatistics unit, David has played a leading role in the Bristol heart surgery and Harold Shipman inquiries. Order a copy of this author’s comprehensive text TODAY! The Bayesian approach involves synthesising data and judgement in order to reach conclusions about unknown quantities and make predictions. Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular in recent years, notably in medical research, and although there are a number of books on Bayesian analysis, few cover clinical trials and biostatistical applications in any detail. Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Health-Care Evaluation provides a valuable overview of this rapidly evolving field, including basic Bayesian ideas, prior distributions, clinical trials, observational studies, evidence synthesis and cost-effectiveness analysis. Covers a broad array of essential topics, building from the basics to more advanced techniques. Illustrated throughout by detailed case studies and worked examples Includes exercises in all chapters Accessible to anyone with a basic knowledge of statistics Authors are at the forefront of research into Bayesian methods in medical research Accompanied by a Web site featuring data sets and worked examples using Excel and WinBUGS - the most widely used Bayesian modelling package Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Health-Care Evaluation is suitable for students and researchers in medical statistics, statisticians in the pharmaceutical industry, and anyone involved in conducting clinical trials and assessment of health-care technology.

Modern Approaches to Clinical Trials Using SAS

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Publisher : SAS Institute
ISBN 13 : 1629600822
Total Pages : 482 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (296 download)

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Book Synopsis Modern Approaches to Clinical Trials Using SAS by : Sandeep Menon

Download or read book Modern Approaches to Clinical Trials Using SAS written by Sandeep Menon and published by SAS Institute. This book was released on 2015-12-09 with total page 482 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Get the tools you need to use SAS® in clinical trial design! Unique and multifaceted, Modern Approaches to Clinical Trials Using SAS: Classical, Adaptive, and Bayesian Methods, edited by Sandeep M. Menon and Richard C. Zink, thoroughly covers several domains of modern clinical trial design: classical, group sequential, adaptive, and Bayesian methods that are applicable to and widely used in various phases of pharmaceutical development. Written for biostatisticians, pharmacometricians, clinical developers, and statistical programmers involved in the design, analysis, and interpretation of clinical trials, as well as students in graduate and postgraduate programs in statistics or biostatistics, the book touches on a wide variety of topics, including dose-response and dose-escalation designs; sequential methods to stop trials early for overwhelming efficacy, safety, or futility; Bayesian designs that incorporate historical data; adaptive sample size re-estimation; adaptive randomization to allocate subjects to more effective treatments; and population enrichment designs. Methods are illustrated using clinical trials from diverse therapeutic areas, including dermatology, endocrinology, infectious disease, neurology, oncology, and rheumatology. Individual chapters are authored by renowned contributors, experts, and key opinion leaders from the pharmaceutical/medical device industry or academia. Numerous real-world examples and sample SAS code enable users to readily apply novel clinical trial design and analysis methodologies in practice.

Engineering Design via Surrogate Modelling

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470770791
Total Pages : 228 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (77 download)

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Book Synopsis Engineering Design via Surrogate Modelling by : Alexander Forrester

Download or read book Engineering Design via Surrogate Modelling written by Alexander Forrester and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-09-15 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Surrogate models expedite the search for promising designs by standing in for expensive design evaluations or simulations. They provide a global model of some metric of a design (such as weight, aerodynamic drag, cost, etc.), which can then be optimized efficiently. Engineering Design via Surrogate Modelling is a self-contained guide to surrogate models and their use in engineering design. The fundamentals of building, selecting, validating, searching and refining a surrogate are presented in a manner accessible to novices in the field. Figures are used liberally to explain the key concepts and clearly show the differences between the various techniques, as well as to emphasize the intuitive nature of the conceptual and mathematical reasoning behind them. More advanced and recent concepts are each presented in stand-alone chapters, allowing the reader to concentrate on material pertinent to their current design problem, and concepts are clearly demonstrated using simple design problems. This collection of advanced concepts (visualization, constraint handling, coping with noisy data, gradient-enhanced modelling, multi-fidelity analysis and multiple objectives) represents an invaluable reference manual for engineers and researchers active in the area. Engineering Design via Surrogate Modelling is complemented by a suite of Matlab codes, allowing the reader to apply all the techniques presented to their own design problems. By applying statistical modelling to engineering design, this book bridges the wide gap between the engineering and statistics communities. It will appeal to postgraduates and researchers across the academic engineering design community as well as practising design engineers. Provides an inclusive and practical guide to using surrogates in engineering design. Presents the fundamentals of building, selecting, validating, searching and refining a surrogate model. Guides the reader through the practical implementation of a surrogate-based design process using a set of case studies from real engineering design challenges. Accompanied by a companion website featuring Matlab software at http://www.wiley.com/go/forrester

Information Science for Materials Discovery and Design

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 331923871X
Total Pages : 316 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (192 download)

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Book Synopsis Information Science for Materials Discovery and Design by : Turab Lookman

Download or read book Information Science for Materials Discovery and Design written by Turab Lookman and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-12 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with an information-driven approach to plan materials discovery and design, iterative learning. The authors present contrasting but complementary approaches, such as those based on high throughput calculations, combinatorial experiments or data driven discovery, together with machine-learning methods. Similarly, statistical methods successfully applied in other fields, such as biosciences, are presented. The content spans from materials science to information science to reflect the cross-disciplinary nature of the field. A perspective is presented that offers a paradigm (codesign loop for materials design) to involve iteratively learning from experiments and calculations to develop materials with optimum properties. Such a loop requires the elements of incorporating domain materials knowledge, a database of descriptors (the genes), a surrogate or statistical model developed to predict a given property with uncertainties, performing adaptive experimental design to guide the next experiment or calculation and aspects of high throughput calculations as well as experiments. The book is about manufacturing with the aim to halving the time to discover and design new materials. Accelerating discovery relies on using large databases, computation, and mathematics in the material sciences in a manner similar to the way used to in the Human Genome Initiative. Novel approaches are therefore called to explore the enormous phase space presented by complex materials and processes. To achieve the desired performance gains, a predictive capability is needed to guide experiments and computations in the most fruitful directions by reducing not successful trials. Despite advances in computation and experimental techniques, generating vast arrays of data; without a clear way of linkage to models, the full value of data driven discovery cannot be realized. Hence, along with experimental, theoretical and computational materials science, we need to add a “fourth leg’’ to our toolkit to make the “Materials Genome'' a reality, the science of Materials Informatics.

NBS Special Publication

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 398 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis NBS Special Publication by :

Download or read book NBS Special Publication written by and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Statistical Inference as Severe Testing

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108563309
Total Pages : 503 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (85 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Inference as Severe Testing by : Deborah G. Mayo

Download or read book Statistical Inference as Severe Testing written by Deborah G. Mayo and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-09-20 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.

Bayesian Optimization for Materials Science

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9811067813
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (11 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Optimization for Materials Science by : Daniel Packwood

Download or read book Bayesian Optimization for Materials Science written by Daniel Packwood and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-04 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science.Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While research in these directions has been reported in high-profile journals, until now there has been no textbook aimed specifically at materials scientists who wish to incorporate Bayesian optimization into their own research. This book will be accessible to researchers and students in materials science who have a basic background in calculus and linear algebra.

Statistical Rethinking

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1315362619
Total Pages : 488 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (153 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Rethinking by : Richard McElreath

Download or read book Statistical Rethinking written by Richard McElreath and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-01-03 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

Sampling Rare or Elusive Species

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Publisher : Island Press
ISBN 13 : 1610911067
Total Pages : 447 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Sampling Rare or Elusive Species by : William Thompson

Download or read book Sampling Rare or Elusive Species written by William Thompson and published by Island Press. This book was released on 2013-04-10 with total page 447 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Information regarding population status and abundance of rare species plays a key role in resource management decisions. Ideally, data should be collected using statistically sound sampling methods, but by their very nature, rare or elusive species pose a difficult sampling challenge. Sampling Rare or Elusive Species describes the latest sampling designs and survey methods for reliably estimating occupancy, abundance, and other population parameters of rare, elusive, or otherwise hard-to-detect plants and animals. It offers a mixture of theory and application, with actual examples from terrestrial, aquatic, and marine habitats around the world. Sampling Rare or Elusive Species is the first volume devoted entirely to this topic and provides natural resource professionals with a suite of innovative approaches to gathering population status and trend data. It represents an invaluable reference for natural resource professionals around the world, including fish and wildlife biologists, ecologists, biometricians, natural resource managers, and all others whose work or research involves rare or elusive species.

Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 110703065X
Total Pages : 255 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing by : Simo Särkkä

Download or read book Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing written by Simo Särkkä and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-09-05 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unified Bayesian treatment of the state-of-the-art filtering, smoothing, and parameter estimation algorithms for non-linear state space models.