Authoritarian Party Structures and Democratic Political Setting in Turkey

Download Authoritarian Party Structures and Democratic Political Setting in Turkey PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1137015853
Total Pages : 370 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (37 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Authoritarian Party Structures and Democratic Political Setting in Turkey by : P. Musil

Download or read book Authoritarian Party Structures and Democratic Political Setting in Turkey written by P. Musil and published by Springer. This book was released on 2011-12-22 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conducting a comparative case study among four parties in the Turkish political system, this study shows how the variance in interest configurations and the power resources of local party activists constitute these changing patterns.

Perspectives on democracy in Turkey

Download Perspectives on democracy in Turkey PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 230 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Perspectives on democracy in Turkey by : Ergun Özbudun

Download or read book Perspectives on democracy in Turkey written by Ergun Özbudun and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: CHAPTER 1: DEVEWPMENT OF DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT IN TURKEY: CRISES, INTERRUPTIONS AND REEQUILIBRATIONS by Ergun Özbudun 1 The Development of Representative and Democratic Government The Ottoman Empire 2 The First Ottoman Parliament 6 The Second Constitutionalist Period (1908-1918) 8 The National Liberation Period (1918-1923) 9 The Consolidation ofthe Republic 11 Transition to MuJtiparty Politics and the Democratic Party Period 14 Turkey' s Second T ry at Democracy (1961-1980) 19 The 1980 Coup and the 1982Constitution 25 Return to Competitive Politics and the1983 Elections 28 An Appraisal 30 Theoretical Analysis 31 Political CuJture 31 Historical Development 35 Class Structure 36 State Structure and Strength 38 Political Structure 41 Political Leadershlp 43 Development Performance 43 International Factors 44 Future Prospects and Policy Implications 45 Policies Promotlng the Growth of Clv/I Soc/ety 45 Policies Promotlng Governmental Stabll/ty and Efticleney 47 Policies Promotlng Economlc Growth and Equity 49 Conclusion 51 Notes CHAPTER 2: STAGES OF POLlTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE TURKISH REPUBLIC by İlter Turan 59 The Consolidation of the Nation State and the Evalution of an Infrastructure for PoliticalCompetition 61 The Consolidation of the Political System 61 The Transition to Competitive Politics 64 The Democratic Party Period: The Failure of the First Turkish Experiment with Political Democracy 72 The Legacy of the Single Party 73 The Political Consequences of Economic Pol/cies 76 Growing Authoritarianism of the Democratic Party 79 The First Turkish Democraey: An Appraisal 81 The Reconstruction of the Turkish Democracy and Us Second Demise 83 The Parties and the Party System 86 The Governments 88 The Legislature and Legislators 89 The Decline of the Bureaucracy 92 The Second Turkish Democratic Experiment: An Appraisal 94 The Turkish Attempts at Democracy: Some Basic Problem s 95 The Primacy of the Collectivity 96 The Primacy of Polities 97 Political Elitism 100 The Cost of Being out of Power 103 Concluding Remarks 106 Notes 108 CHAPTER 3: POST-1980 PARTI ES AND POLITICS IN TURKEY by Üstün Ergüder 113 Maladies of the Party System During the 1980s 117 V olatility 117 Fragmentation 119 Polarization 122 The 1983 Election 126 Post-1983 Developments: The Dilemmas of the Party System 129 The 1987 Eleetion: "Reinstatement or Reform" Revisited 133 Notes 141 CHAPTER 4 THE GRAND NATIONAL ASSEMBLY OF THE POST-1983 MULTI-PAR1Y ERA by Ersin Kalaycıoğlu 147 Introduction 149 The Process of Legislative Institutionalization and the Turkish Grand National Assembly 155 The House Rules and Norms: The Rules of Procedure in the TGNA 157 Procedural Rules Conceming the House Activities ot the Legislators 159 Politicaı Parties in the TGNA 164 Party Discipline in the TGNA 166 Legislative Activities and the Party Groups in the TGNA 169 The Commission Structure and Activity in the TGNA 175 Conclusion 181 Notes 184 CHAPTER 5: HUMAN RIGHTS AND THE RULE OF LAW by Ergun Özbudun 193 The Rule of Law under the Constitution of 1982 196 Human Rights 198 The Independence ot the Judiciary 202 The Constitutional Court and Judicial Review ot the Constitutionality ot Laws 203 Turkeyand the International Protectionot Human Rights 206 Notes 209.

Democratisation in Turkey

Download Democratisation in Turkey PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Peter Lang
ISBN 13 : 9789052012360
Total Pages : 298 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (123 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Democratisation in Turkey by : Huri Türsan

Download or read book Democratisation in Turkey written by Huri Türsan and published by Peter Lang. This book was released on 2004 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Party politics has been undergoing a revival in many democracies. However, parties are much less studied in countries with unstable political regimes. Party interactions can help to provide explanations for the emergence and performance of regimes, whether of the democratic or authoritarian type. This book is a comprehensive case study that analyses, in depth, Turkish political parties. Starting with broad historical analysis, Huri Türsan takes the reader down to the most recent electoral activities and party politics in a country whose topicality is on the rise, not least due to its political problems. While the author deals with many issues of politics (including the role of the military), she focuses on an aspect of party competition which renders democracy problematic in Turkey, namely polarisation in party politics along cleavages.

Political Parties and Democracy in Turkey

Download Political Parties and Democracy in Turkey PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317241258
Total Pages : 189 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (172 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Political Parties and Democracy in Turkey by : Jacob M. Landau

Download or read book Political Parties and Democracy in Turkey written by Jacob M. Landau and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-03-31 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the establishment in 1945 of a constitutional democracy, political parties have figured prominently in Turkish politics. This book, first published in 1991, examines the role they have played. Key features of the political culture of the Turkish republic have created dilemmas for multi-party democracy: Atatürkism still exerts a powerful influence on the country’s bureaucratic and military elites. With their notion of ‘responsible leadership’ and of democracy as rational intellectual debate in pursuit of the ‘best’ policy, they have expected an unrealistic degree of idealism and statesmanlike behaviour from the leaders of political parties. Three times, in 1960, 1971 and 1980, the military has intervened in politics – on the third occasion to undertake wholesale constitutional and legal restructuring aimed at producing ‘sensible’ politicians. Given these ambiguous circumstances, what role have the political parties themselves played in the promotion and functioning of democracy in Turkey, and what are their attitudes to the issues involved? This collection of essays discusses political parties since the foundation of the Turkish Republic in 1923 until the 1990s. With contributions from leading political scientists and historians of modern Turkey, it is indispensable reading for all those concerned with the country.

Contemporary Turkish Politics

Download Contemporary Turkish Politics PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Lynne Rienner Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9781555877354
Total Pages : 188 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (773 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Contemporary Turkish Politics by : Ergun Özbudun

Download or read book Contemporary Turkish Politics written by Ergun Özbudun and published by Lynne Rienner Publishers. This book was released on 2000 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 1945, Turkey has witnessed no fewer than three breakdowns of the democratic process (1960, 1971 and 1980) and three retransitions to democracy (1961, 1973 and 1983). In this text, the author analyzes 50 years of Turkish politics and provides a theoretical and comparative perspective.

Turkey's Difficult Journey to Democracy

Download Turkey's Difficult Journey to Democracy PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Oxford Studies in Democratizat
ISBN 13 : 019966398X
Total Pages : 269 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (996 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Turkey's Difficult Journey to Democracy by : İlter Turan

Download or read book Turkey's Difficult Journey to Democracy written by İlter Turan and published by Oxford Studies in Democratizat. This book was released on 2015 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Turkey's Difficult Journey to Democracy provides a thorough examination of the evolution of Turkey's democracy to the present day. After the Second World War, Turkey was considered to have made a highly successful transition from a single party authoritarian state to political competition. Yet, within ten years, Turkey had experienced its first military intervention. During the next forty years, the country vacillated between democratic openings and direct or indirect military interventions. The ascendance in the importance of questions of economic prosperity has helped the deepening and maturing of Turkish democracy, but some impediments persist to produce malfunctions in the operation of a fully democratic system. Through studying the Turkish experience of democratization,Turkey's Difficult Journey to Democracy seeks to provide understanding of the challenges countries that are trying to become democracies encounter in this process. Oxford Studies in Democratization is a series for scholars and students of comparative politics and related disciplines. Volumes concentrate on the comparative study of the democratization process that accompanied the decline and termination of the cold war. The geographical focus of the series is primarily Latin America, the Caribbean, Southern and Eastern Europe, and relevant experiences in Africa and Asia. The series editor is Laurence Whitehead, Senior Research Fellow, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

Party Politics in Turkey

Download Party Politics in Turkey PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1315461870
Total Pages : 255 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (154 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Party Politics in Turkey by : Sabri Sayarı

Download or read book Party Politics in Turkey written by Sabri Sayarı and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-01-29 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although the literature on party politics has significantly advanced both methodologically and theoretically in recent years, the study of political parties in Turkey has been noticeably disconnected and lacking from such conversations. This book evaluates well-established theories and trends in existing party politics literature and relates them to the case of Turkey. It explores fundamental questions such as: Who controls party organizations and how does the locus of control change over time? What kinds of power struggles are observed inside a party and between whom? What do the present and past records of party membership imply for party organizations? What role do grassroots activists play in local and national politics? How do the ideological orientations of party members differ from party leaders and other voters? What types of social cleavages shape political parties and how do they change over time? What constitutes the relationship between the state and parties today? Who finances political parties and what does this imply about the quality of democracy? How and why do party systems change? The various chapters show that party politics in the Turkish context is significantly different to Western and new democracies. By highlighting the significant contribution the Turkish case can make to existing conceptual frameworks and theories, this book will be a valuable resource for anyone studying political parties, party systems and comparative politics, as well as Turkish politics.

Turkey between Democracy and Authoritarianism

Download Turkey between Democracy and Authoritarianism PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108683088
Total Pages : 311 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (86 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Turkey between Democracy and Authoritarianism by : Yeşim Arat

Download or read book Turkey between Democracy and Authoritarianism written by Yeşim Arat and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-09-05 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the 1980 military coup in Turkey, much of the history and politics of the country can be described as a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. In this accessible account of the country's politics, society and economics, the authors delve into the causes and processes of what has been called a democratic 'backsliding'. In order to explore this, Yeşim Arat and Şevket Pamuk, two of Turkey's leading social scientists, focus on the mutual distrust between the secular and Islamist groups. They argue that the attempts by a secular coalition to circumscribe the Islamists in power had a boomerang effect. The Islamists struck back first in self-defence, then in pursuit of authoritarian power. With chapters on urbanization, Kurdish nationalism, women's movements, economic development and foreign relations, this book offers a comprehensive and lively examination of contemporary Turkey and its role on the global stage.

Authoritarian Politics in Turkey

Download Authoritarian Politics in Turkey PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1786732270
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (867 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Authoritarian Politics in Turkey by : Bahar Baser

Download or read book Authoritarian Politics in Turkey written by Bahar Baser and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: President Erdogan's victory in the April 2017 referendum granted him sweeping new powers across Turkey. The constitutional reforms transform the country from a parliamentary democracy into a "Turkish style" presidential republic. Despite being democratically elected, Turkey's ruling AKP party has moved towards increasingly authoritarian measures. During the coup attempt in July 2016, the AKP government declared a state of emergency which Erdogan saw as an opportunity to purge the public sector of pro-Gulenist individuals and criminalise opposition groups including Kurds, Alevites, leftists and liberals. The country experienced political turmoil and rapid transformation as a result. This book identifies the process of democratic reversal in Turkey. In particular, contributors explore the various ways that a democratically elected political party has used elections to implement authoritarian measures. They scrutinise the very concepts of democracy, elections and autocracy to expose their flaws which can be manipulated to advantage. The book includes chapters discussing the roots of authoritarianism in Turkey; the political economy of elections; the relationship between the political Islamic groups and the government; Turkish foreign policy; non-Muslim communities' attitudes towards the AKP; and Kurdish citizens' voting patterns. As well as following Turkey's political trajectory, this book contextualises Turkey in the wider literature on electoral and competitive authoritarianisms and explores the country's future options.

Exit from Democracy

Download Exit from Democracy PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351381849
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (513 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Exit from Democracy by : Kerem Öktem

Download or read book Exit from Democracy written by Kerem Öktem and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-12-07 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Democratic government is facing unprecedented challenges at a global scale. Yet, Turkey's descent into conflict, crisis and autocracy is exceptional. Only a few years ago, the country was praised as a successful Muslim-majority democracy and a promising example of sustainable growth. In Turkey’s Exit from Democracy, the contributors argue that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party government have now effectively abandoned the realm of democratic politics by attempting regime change with the aim to install a hyper-presidentialist system. Examining how this power grab comes at the tail end of more than a decade of seemingly democratic politics, the contributors also explore the mechanisms of de-democratization through two distinctive, but interrelated angles: A set of comparative analyses explores illiberal forms of governance in Turkey, Russia, Southeast Europe and Latin America. In-depth studies analyse how Turkey's society has been reshaped in the image of a patriarchal habitus and how consent has been fabricated through religious, educational, ethnic and civil society policies. Despite this comprehensive authoritarian shift, the result is not authoritarian consolidation, but a deeply divided and contested polity. Analysing an early example of democratic decline and authoritarian politics, this volume is relevant well beyond the confines of regional studies. Turkey exemplifies the larger forces of de-democratization at play globally. Turkey’s Exit from Democracy provides the reader with generalizable insights into these transformative processes. These chapters were originally published as a special issue in Southeast European and Black Sea Studies.

The Ailing Turkish Democracy

Download The Ailing Turkish Democracy PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Cambridge Scholars Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1527544044
Total Pages : 137 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (275 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis The Ailing Turkish Democracy by : Magdalene Antreou

Download or read book The Ailing Turkish Democracy written by Magdalene Antreou and published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing. This book was released on 2019-11-29 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Turkey currently has an ailing democratic regime, and the country remains trapped in the gap which separates liberal constitutional regimes from totalitarian regimes. It has been trying to join the former camp for decades, but has not yet made substantial progress in this endeavour. This book documents the four main causes of the “disease” which troubles the Turkish democracy: namely, socio-economic underdevelopment, the dependent middle classes, the perpetuation of the “Kurdish Issue”, and the weak opposition play a significant role in the shaping of the modern Turkish political system. It shows that, following the post-Cold War trend of the developing world of establishing a hybrid majoritarian political system, the Turkish political system constituted the conservative response of the ruling elites to the country’s socio-political changes.

Democratic Consolidation in Turkey

Download Democratic Consolidation in Turkey PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Universal-Publishers
ISBN 13 : 1612330673
Total Pages : 467 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (123 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Democratic Consolidation in Turkey by : Müge Aknur

Download or read book Democratic Consolidation in Turkey written by Müge Aknur and published by Universal-Publishers. This book was released on 2012 with total page 467 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although Turkey began its transition to democracy as early as the 1950s, it is still far from having reached a level of consolidated democracy with the country's sixty-year history of democratic politics being punctuated by numerous breakdowns and restorations of democracy. In an attempt to examine why consolidation of Turkish democracy has taken so long, this book aims at analyzing various factors including state, political parties, civil society, civil-military relations, socio-economic development, the EU as an international actor and the rise of internal threats (political Islam and separatist Kurdish nationalism) that both hinder and enhance democratic consolidation in Turkey. By highlighting the strengths and shortcomings of the Turkish experience from these perspectives, this book suggests the optimal policy priorities for current and future Turkish governments to establish a consolidated democracy in Turkey. Contributors: Muge Aknur, Canan Aslan-Akman, Filiz Baskan, Gulgun Erdogan-Tosun, Siret Hursoy, Aysegul Komsuoglu, Gul M. Kurtoglu-Eskisar, Yesim Kustepeli, Nazif Mandaci, Ibrahim Saylan, & Ugur Burc Yildiz.

Political Stability, Democracy and Agenda Dynamics in Turkey

Download Political Stability, Democracy and Agenda Dynamics in Turkey PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030274586
Total Pages : 204 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (32 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Political Stability, Democracy and Agenda Dynamics in Turkey by : Alper T. Bulut

Download or read book Political Stability, Democracy and Agenda Dynamics in Turkey written by Alper T. Bulut and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-11-18 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the determinants and consequences of policy responsiveness and change, and how policy issues get onto the media and legislative agenda in a transitional democracy. It provides a detailed and attention based theory of Turkish Politics, and develops and introduces comprehensive content-analytics datasets of legislative activities and media coverage that span over several decades.

Political Leaders and Democracy in Turkey

Download Political Leaders and Democracy in Turkey PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Political Leaders and Democracy in Turkey by : Metin Heper

Download or read book Political Leaders and Democracy in Turkey written by Metin Heper and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the founding of the modern Turkish republic in 1923, Turkey's political leaders have been decisive in shaping the development of their country's democratic patterns and processes. Beginning with Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, Political Leaders and Democracy in Turkey analyzes the origins, political careers, beliefs, and policies of eleven of modern-day Turkey's most influential leaders. The chapters offer a unique perspective into the complex and fascinating world of Turkish political leadership and the transition to, and consolidation of, democracy. This crucial addition to Turkish studies and comparative politics is the first book to undertake a systematic study of the role political leaders have played in shaping the successes, as well as the shortcomings, of Turkey's grand democratic experiment.

Democratic Consolidation in Turkey

Download Democratic Consolidation in Turkey PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317427378
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (174 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Democratic Consolidation in Turkey by : Cengiz Erisen

Download or read book Democratic Consolidation in Turkey written by Cengiz Erisen and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-06-10 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While Turkey has made major strides in democratic reforms in the late 1990s and early 2000s, progress has, in many ways, stalled. Turkey remains "democratic" in the sense that attaining political power depends upon winning votes, but in recent years its leadership has taken a majoritarian view of democracy and the country has faced problems on issues such as rule of law, freedom of speech, and increased polarization. This book explores the understanding and practice of democracy in Turkey since the early 2000s, analyzing its evolution in light of the parliamentary elections held in 2015. Adopting a more holistic approach in line with the writing of Wolfgang Merkel, it recognizes that a successful, consolidated democracy has various micro and macro-level foundations. The former includes factors such as political values, tolerance, identity, and civil society, while the latter includes political economy, party competition, and institutional development. This volume rejects purely descriptive assessments and instead employs theoretical perspectives to analyze a dynamic political environment. It brings together a range of noted specialists on Turkish politics and society, who employ different methodological approaches and frameworks to offer a distinct scholarly work on democratization in Turkey. A thorough analysis of the problems of democratic consolidation, alongside an awareness of the theoretical and methodological debates in the discipline, make this book essential reading for students, scholars and policymakers interested in Turkish politics, as well as democratization and democratic transitions more generally.

Turkey, the Politics of Authority, Democracy, and Development

Download Turkey, the Politics of Authority, Democracy, and Development PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Praeger Publishers
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Turkey, the Politics of Authority, Democracy, and Development by : Frank Tachau

Download or read book Turkey, the Politics of Authority, Democracy, and Development written by Frank Tachau and published by Praeger Publishers. This book was released on 1984 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Republic of Turkey has experienced impressive growth since its establishment in 1923 after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Dr. Tachau presents Turkey as an intriguing case for political analysis: a Third Wold nation whose political development began some 25 years earlier than most of the rest of the Third World.

Turkish Democracy Today

Download Turkish Democracy Today PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
ISBN 13 : 0857717588
Total Pages : 254 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (577 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Turkish Democracy Today by : Ersin Kalaycioglu

Download or read book Turkish Democracy Today written by Ersin Kalaycioglu and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2006-12-21 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The experience of democracy in Turkey since its introduction in 1950 has been bloody, chequered but persistent. The complex cultural and economic stratification of Turkish society, together with its unique geopolitical status, straddling Eastern and Western zones of influence, in part accounts for the turbulence of Turkey's democratic experience. But, as this important new work argues, Turkish democracy has for too long been treated as a sui generis case, and been cut off from theoretical developments in psephology and comparative sociology. The authors seek to redress this, combining cutting-edge theory with in-depth empirical research to address the key issues in contemporary Turkish politics: the rise of democratic Islamist parties, and the implications of their ascendancy for political stability and democratic governance. They offer important conclusions on voter decision-making in Turkey, and provide a rigorous theoretical framework for identifying trends and anticipating future developments.