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Asset Prices With Rational Beliefs
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Book Synopsis Asset Prices with Rational Beliefs by : Mordecai Kurz
Download or read book Asset Prices with Rational Beliefs written by Mordecai Kurz and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces the concept of Rational Belief Equilibrium (RBE) as a basis for a new theory of asset pricing. Rational Beliefs are probability beliefs about future economic variables which cannot be contradicted by the data generated by the economy. RBE is an equilibrium in which the diverse beliefs of all the agents induce an equilibrium stochastic process of prices and quantities and these beliefs are, in general, wrong in the sense that they are different from the true probability of the equilibrium process. These beliefs are, however, Rational. Consequently, in an RBE agents use the wrong forecasting functions and their forecasting mistakes play a crucial role in the analysis. First, we show that these mistakes are the reason why stock returns are explainable in retrospect and forecastable whenever the environment remains unchanged over a long enough time interval for agents to learn the forecasting function. Second, the aggregation of these mistakes generates Endogenous Uncertainty: it is that component of the variability of stock prices and returns which is endogenously induced by the beliefs and actions of the agents rather than by the standard exogenous state variables. The paper develops some basic propositions and empirical implications of the theory of RBE. Based on the historical background of the post world war II era, we formulate an econometric model of stock returns which allows non-stationarity in the form of changing environments (quot;regimesquot;). A sequence of econometric hypotheses are then formulated as implications of the theory of RBE and tested utilizing data on common stock returns in the post war period. Apart from confirming the validity of our theory, the empirical analysis shows that (i) common stock returns are forecastable within each environment but it takes time for agents to learn and approximate the forecasting functions. For some agents the time is too short so that it is too late to profit from such learning; (ii) the equilibrium forecasting functions change from one environment to the other in an unforecastable manner so that learning the parameters of one environment does not improve the ability to forecast in the subsequent environments. (iii) more than 2/3 of the variability of stock returns is due to endogenous uncertainty rather than exogenous causes. The paper analyzes one example of a gross market overvaluation which was induced in the 1960's by an aggregation of agent's Mistakes.
Author :Charalambos D. Aliprantis Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :3662058588 Total Pages :733 pages Book Rating :4.6/5 (62 download)
Book Synopsis Assets, Beliefs, and Equilibria in Economic Dynamics by : Charalambos D. Aliprantis
Download or read book Assets, Beliefs, and Equilibria in Economic Dynamics written by Charalambos D. Aliprantis and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 733 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of papers dealing with a broad range of topics in mathematical economics, game theory and economic dynamics. The contributions present both theoretical and applied research. The volume is dedicated to Mordecai Kurz. The papers were presented in a special symposium co-hosted by the Stanford University Department of Economics and by the Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research in August 2002.
Book Synopsis On the Kurz Model of Asset Prices with Rational Beliefs by : Craig W. French
Download or read book On the Kurz Model of Asset Prices with Rational Beliefs written by Craig W. French and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kurz (1997) proposes an appealing model of asset pricing that appears to be an interesting example of a conditional CAPM. In the Kurz model, agents develop a diversity of inaccurate but rational beliefs through a Bayesian process. Kurz avoids the problematic issue of unobservable conditioning information by developing a general equilibrium model based upon rational beliefs, which means that agents do not know the demand functions of other agents, and therefore cannot compute equilibrium prices. They can, however, develop diverse beliefs that cannot be rejected by historical economic data. Such unrejectable beliefs are defined by Kurz to be rational, and lead to a continuum of Rational Belief Equilibria. Kurz uses the concept of endogenous uncertainty (EU), which measures the sum of agents' forecasting mistakes. To the extent asset price variance differs from variance in the exogenous fundamental economic variables, Kurz' approach attributes the difference to EU, or aggregate forecasting mistakes which are consistent with rational beliefs. To the extent that the Arrow-Debreau (1954) model is based exclusively on exogenous uncertainty, Kurz views this as quot;fundamentally flawedquot; and offers a new and interesting way to distinguish between exogenous and endogenous uncertainty. The most interesting aspect of such delineation is it supports the prior theory of Treynor and Black (1973) and Cvitanic et al (2002) on the existence and estimation of appraisal premia for capital assets, in a conditional CAPM framework.
Book Synopsis Asset Price Volatility and Trading Volume with Rational Beliefs by : Ho-Mou Wu
Download or read book Asset Price Volatility and Trading Volume with Rational Beliefs written by Ho-Mou Wu and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a model of speculative trading in a large economy with a continuum of investors. In our model the investors are assumed to have diverse beliefs which are rational in the sense of being compatible with observed data.We demonstrate the existence of price amplification effects and show that the equilibrium prices can be higher or lower than the rational expectation equilibrium price. It is also shown that trading volume is positively related to the directions of price changes. Moreover, we study how asset price volatility and trading volume are influenced by belief structures, short selling constraints and the amount of fund available for investment.
Book Synopsis Endogenous Economic Fluctuations by : Mordecai Kurz
Download or read book Endogenous Economic Fluctuations written by Mordecai Kurz and published by Studies in Economic Theory. This book was released on 1997-08-21 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book presents a new theory of expectations called "rational beliefs". Contrary to the standard theory which views the origin of uncertainty as being exogenous to the economic system, the theory of rational beliefs holds that a crucial component of social risk and economic fluctuations is endogenously propagated by variations in the state of beliefs of market participants. One part of the book provides an exposition of the foundation of the theory of rational beliefs. A second part explores the structure of general equilibrium models in which market participants hold rational beliefs. The "Applications" part of the book studies the behavior of asset prices and rates of return on financial assets. It demonstrates that endogenous uncertainty provides a uniform paradigm for the study of economic fluctuations.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 1 by :
Download or read book Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 1 written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 748 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Behavioral Economics: Foundations and Applications presents the concepts and tools of behavioral economics. Its authors are all economists who share a belief that the objective of behavioral economics is to enrich, rather than to destroy or replace, standard economics. They provide authoritative perspectives on the value to economic inquiry of insights gained from psychology. Specific chapters in this first volume cover reference-dependent preferences, asset markets, household finance, corporate finance, public economics, industrial organization, and structural behavioural economics. This Handbook provides authoritative summaries by experts in respective subfields regarding where behavioral economics has been; what it has so far accomplished; and its promise for the future. This taking-stock is just what Behavioral Economics needs at this stage of its so-far successful career. Helps academic and non-academic economists understand recent, rapid changes in theoretical and empirical advances within behavioral economics Designed for economists already convinced of the benefits of behavioral economics and mainstream economists who feel threatened by new developments in behavioral economics Written for those who wish to become quickly acquainted with behavioral economics
Book Synopsis A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing by : Hersh Shefrin
Download or read book A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing written by Hersh Shefrin and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2008-05-19 with total page 636 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral finance is the study of how psychology affects financial decision making and financial markets. It is increasingly becoming the common way of understanding investor behavior and stock market activity. Incorporating the latest research and theory, Shefrin offers both a strong theory and efficient empirical tools that address derivatives, fixed income securities, mean-variance efficient portfolios, and the market portfolio. The book provides a series of examples to illustrate the theory. The second edition continues the tradition of the first edition by being the one and only book to focus completely on how behavioral finance principles affect asset pricing, now with its theory deepened and enriched by a plethora of research since the first edition
Book Synopsis Restrictions on Asset-Price Movements Under Rational Expectations by : Ned Augenblick
Download or read book Restrictions on Asset-Price Movements Under Rational Expectations written by Ned Augenblick and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How restrictive is the assumption of rational expectations in asset markets? We provide two contributions to address this question. First, we derive restrictions on the admissible variation in asset prices in a general class of rational-expectations equilibria. The challenge in this task is that asset prices reflect both beliefs and preferences. We gain traction by considering market-implied, or risk-neutral, probabilities of future outcomes, and we provide a mapping between the variation in these probabilities and the minimum curvature of utility -- or, more generally, the slope of the stochastic discount factor -- required to rationalize the marginal investor's beliefs. Second, we implement these bounds empirically using S&P 500 index options. We find that very high utility curvature is required to rationalize the behavior of risk-neutral beliefs, and in some cases, no stochastic discount factor in the class we consider is capable of rationalizing these beliefs. This provides evidence of overreaction to new information relative to the rational benchmark. We show further that this overreaction is strongest for beliefs over prices at distant horizons, and that our findings cannot be explained by factors specific to the option market.
Book Synopsis Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns by : Markus Konrad Brunnermeier
Download or read book Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns written by Markus Konrad Brunnermeier and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Human beings want to believe that good outcomes in the future are more likely, but also want to make good decisions that increase average outcomes in the future. We consider a general equilibrium model with complete markets and show that when investors hold beliefs that optimally balance these two incentives, portfolio holdings and asset prices match six observed patterns: (i) because the cost of biased beliefs are typically second-order, investors typically hold biased assessments of probabilities and so are not perfectly diversified according to objective metrics; (ii) because the costs of biased beliefs temper these biases, the utility costs of the lack of diversification are limited; (iii) because there is a complementarity between believing a state more likely and purchasing more of the asset that pays off in that state, investors over-invest in only one Arrow-Debreu security and smooth their consumption well across the remaining states; (iv) because different households can settle on different states to be optimistic about, optimal portfolios of ex ante identical investors can be heterogeneous; (v) because low-price and low-probability states are the cheapest states to buy consumption in, overoptimism about these states distorts consumption the least in the rest of the states, so that investors tend to overinvest in the most skewed securities; (vi) finally, because investors with optimal expectations have higher demand for more skewed assets, ceteris paribus, more skewed asset can have lower average returns.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory by : Darrell Duffie
Download or read book Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory written by Darrell Duffie and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-01-27 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a thoroughly updated edition of Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory, the standard text for doctoral students and researchers on the theory of asset pricing and portfolio selection in multiperiod settings under uncertainty. The asset pricing results are based on the three increasingly restrictive assumptions: absence of arbitrage, single-agent optimality, and equilibrium. These results are unified with two key concepts, state prices and martingales. Technicalities are given relatively little emphasis, so as to draw connections between these concepts and to make plain the similarities between discrete and continuous-time models. Readers will be particularly intrigued by this latest edition's most significant new feature: a chapter on corporate securities that offers alternative approaches to the valuation of corporate debt. Also, while much of the continuous-time portion of the theory is based on Brownian motion, this third edition introduces jumps--for example, those associated with Poisson arrivals--in order to accommodate surprise events such as bond defaults. Applications include term-structure models, derivative valuation, and hedging methods. Numerical methods covered include Monte Carlo simulation and finite-difference solutions for partial differential equations. Each chapter provides extensive problem exercises and notes to the literature. A system of appendixes reviews the necessary mathematical concepts. And references have been updated throughout. With this new edition, Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory remains at the head of the field.
Book Synopsis A Crisis of Beliefs by : Nicola Gennaioli
Download or read book A Crisis of Beliefs written by Nicola Gennaioli and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2018-09-11 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How investor expectations move markets and the economy The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A Crisis of Beliefs makes us rethink the financial crisis and the nature of economic risk. In this authoritative and comprehensive book, two of today’s most insightful economists reveal how our beliefs shape financial markets, lead to expansions of credit and leverage, and expose the economy to major risks. Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer carefully walk readers through the unraveling of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing meltdown of the US financial system, and then present new evidence to illustrate the destabilizing role played by the beliefs of home buyers, investors, and regulators. Using the latest research in psychology and behavioral economics, they present a new theory of belief formation that explains why the financial crisis came as such a shock to so many people—and how financial and economic instability persist. A must-read for anyone seeking insights into financial markets, A Crisis of Beliefs shows how even the smartest market participants and regulators did not fully appreciate the extent of economic risk, and offers a new framework for understanding today’s unpredictable financial waters.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Financial Markets: Dynamics and Evolution by : Thorsten Hens
Download or read book Handbook of Financial Markets: Dynamics and Evolution written by Thorsten Hens and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The models of portfolio selection and asset price dynamics in this volume seek to explain the market dynamics of asset prices. Presenting a range of analytical, empirical, and numerical techniques as well as several different modeling approaches, the authors depict the state of debate on the market selection hypothesis. By explicitly assuming the heterogeneity of investors, they present models that are descriptive and normative as well, making the volume useful for both finance theorists and financial practitioners. Explains the market dynamics of asset prices, offering insights about asset management approaches Assumes a heterogeneity of investors that yields descriptive and normative models of portfolio selections and asset pricing dynamics
Book Synopsis Asset pricing under rational learning about rare disasters by : Christos Koulovatianos
Download or read book Asset pricing under rational learning about rare disasters written by Christos Koulovatianos and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Economy As an Evolving Complex System, III by : Lawrence E. Blume
Download or read book The Economy As an Evolving Complex System, III written by Lawrence E. Blume and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Derived from the 2001 Santa Fe Institute Conference, "The Economy as an Evolving Complex System III" addresses a wide variety of issues in the fields of economics and complexity, accessing eclectic techniques from many disciplines, provided that they shed light on the economic problem. The subject, a perennial centerpiece of the SFI program of studies, has gained a wide range of followers for its methods of employing empirical evidence in the development of analytical economic theories.
Book Synopsis Essays on Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Bounded Rational Investor by : Lei Lu
Download or read book Essays on Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Bounded Rational Investor written by Lei Lu and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The thesis includes two essays on asset pricing. In the first essay, "Asset Pricing in a Monetary Economy with Heterogeneous Beliefs", we shed new light on the role of monetary policy in asset pricing by focusing on the case where investors have heterogeneous expectations about future monetary policy. Under heterogeneity in beliefs, investors place bets against each other on the evolution of money supply, and as a result, the sharing of wealth in the economy evolves stochastically over time, making money non-neutral. Employing a continuous-time, general equilibrium model, we establish these fluctuations to be rich in implications, in that they majorly affect the equilibrium prices of all assets, as well as inflation. In particular, we find that the stock market volatility may be significantly increased by the heterogeneity in beliefs, a conclusion supported by our empirical analysis. The second essay is titled with " Asset Pricing and Welfare Analysis with Bounded Rational Investors". Motivated by the fact that investors have limited ability and insufficient knowledge to process information, I model investors' bounded-rational behavior in processing information and study its implications on asset pricing. Bounded rational investors perceive "correlated" information (which consists of news that is correlated with fundamentals, but provides no information on them) as "fundamental" information. This generates "bounded rational risk". Asset prices and volatilities of asset returns are derived. Specially, the equity premium and the stock volatility are raised under some conditions. I also analyze the welfare impact of bounded rationality." --
Book Synopsis Handbook of the Economics of Finance by : G. Constantinides
Download or read book Handbook of the Economics of Finance written by G. Constantinides and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2003-11-04 with total page 698 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Arbitrage, State Prices and Portfolio Theory / Philip h. Dybvig and Stephen a. Ross / - Intertemporal Asset Pricing Theory / Darrell Duffle / - Tests of Multifactor Pricing Models, Volatility Bounds and Portfolio Performance / Wayne E. Ferson / - Consumption-Based Asset Pricing / John y Campbell / - The Equity Premium in Retrospect / Rainish Mehra and Edward c. Prescott / - Anomalies and Market Efficiency / William Schwert / - Are Financial Assets Priced Locally or Globally? / G. Andrew Karolyi and Rene M. Stuli / - Microstructure and Asset Pricing / David Easley and Maureen O'hara / - A Survey of Behavioral Finance / Nicholas Barberis and Richard Thaler / - Derivatives / Robert E. Whaley / - Fixed-Income Pricing / Qiang Dai and Kenneth J. Singleton.
Book Synopsis Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets by : Franklin Allen
Download or read book Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets written by Franklin Allen and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a financial market where traders are risk averse and short lived, and prices are noisy, asset prices today depend on the average expectation today of tomorrow's price. Thus (iterating this relationship) the date 1 price equals the date 1 average expectation of the date 2 average expectation of the date 3 price. This will not in general equal the date 1 average expectation of the date 3 price. We show how this failure of the law of iterated expectations for average belief can help understand the role of higher order beliefs in a fully rational asset pricing model and explain over-reaction to (noisy) public information.
