Assessing The Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real Time Data

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Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-time Data

Author : Lise Pichette
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (1 download)

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Book Synopsis Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-time Data by : Lise Pichette

Download or read book Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-time Data written by Lise Pichette and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Every quarter, the Bank of Canada conducts quarterly consultations with businesses across Canada, referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). A principal-component analysis conducted by Pichette and Rennison (2011) led to the development of the BOS indicator, which summarizes survey results and is used by the Bank as a gauge of overall business sentiment. In this paper, we examine whether data vintages matter when assessing the predictive content of the BOS indicator and individual BOS questions and whether the BOS is a better indicator of revised or unrevised macroeconomic data. As an indicator of business sentiment in the context of monetary policy, the reliability of the BOS is essential, and it is crucial to understand whether the signals it sends are best interpreted for early-released or revised data. For this purpose, we use different methods of forecasting that take into account the real-time perspective of the data. Results from the different methods show that the BOS content is informative regardless of data revisions. However, in real time, the BOS indicator and individual BOS questions are found to produce better nowcasts of first-released data or partially revised data than of latest-available data. This is particularly important in the case of growth in real business investment. In fact, because revisions to real business investment are more volatile than revisions to real gross domestic product (GDP), the choice of data vintages when assessing the ability of the BOS to forecast growth appears to be more important for real business investment than for real GDP"--Abstract, p. ii.

Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions

Author : Jonas Dovern
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (26 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions by : Jonas Dovern

Download or read book Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions written by Jonas Dovern and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Economic Indicator Handbook

Author : Richard Yamarone
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118204662
Total Pages : 358 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (182 download)

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Book Synopsis The Economic Indicator Handbook by : Richard Yamarone

Download or read book The Economic Indicator Handbook written by Richard Yamarone and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-01-17 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analyze key indicators more accurately to make smarter market moves The Economic Indicator Handbook helps investors more easily evaluate economic trends, to better inform investment decision making and other key strategic financial planning. Written by a Bloomberg Senior Economist, this book presents a visual distillation of the indicators every investor should follow, with clear explanation of how they're measured, what they mean, and how that should inform investment thinking. The focus on graphics, professional application, Bloomberg terminal functionality, and practicality makes this guide a quick, actionable read that could immediately start improving investment outcomes. Coverage includes gross domestic product, employment data, industrial production, new residential construction, consumer confidence, retail and food service sales, and commodities, plus guidance on the secret indicators few economists know or care about. Past performance can predict future results – if you know how to read the indicators. Modern investing requires a careful understanding of the macroeconomic forces that lift and topple markets on a regular basis, and how they shift to move entire economies. This book is a visual guide to recognizing these forces and tracking their behavior, helping investors identify entry and exit points that maximize profit and minimize loss. Quickly evaluate economic trends Make more informed investment decisions Understand the most essential indicators Translate predictions into profitable actions Savvy market participants know how critical certain indicators are to the formulation of a profitable, effective market strategy. A daily indicator check can inform day-to-day investing, and long-term tracking can result in a stronger, more robust portfolio. For the investor who knows that better information leads to better outcomes, The Economic Indicator Handbook is an exceptionally useful resource.

Forecasting Business and Consumer Surveys Indicators. A Time Series Models Competition

Author : Rosina Moreno
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (112 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Business and Consumer Surveys Indicators. A Time Series Models Competition by : Rosina Moreno

Download or read book Forecasting Business and Consumer Surveys Indicators. A Time Series Models Competition written by Rosina Moreno and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: The objective of this paper is to compare different time series methods for the short-run forecasting of Business and Consumer Survey Indicators. We consider all available data taken from the Business and Consumer Survey Indicators for the Euro area between 1985 and 2002. The main results of the forecast competition are offered not only for raw data but we also consider the effects of seasonality and removing outliers on forecast accuracy. In most cases the univariate autoregressions were not outperformed by the other methods. As for the effect of seasonal adjustment methods and the use of data from which outliers have been removed, we obtain that the use of raw data has little effect on forecast accuracy. The forecasting performance of qualitative indicators is important since enlarging the observed time series of these indicators with forecast intervals may help in interpreting and assessing the implications of the current situation and can be used as an input in quantitative for

Business Tendency Surveys A Handbook

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9264177442
Total Pages : 130 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (641 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Tendency Surveys A Handbook by : OECD

Download or read book Business Tendency Surveys A Handbook written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2003-03-20 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook is a practical manual on the design and implementation of business tendency surveys, which ask company managers about the current situation of their business and about their plans and expectations for the future.

Forecasting Business Surveys Indicators

Author : Oscar Claveria
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Business Surveys Indicators by : Oscar Claveria

Download or read book Forecasting Business Surveys Indicators written by Oscar Claveria and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this paper is to compare different forecasting methods for the short run forecasting of Business Survey Indicators. We compare the forecasting accuracy of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) vs. three different time series models: autoregressions (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR). We consider all the indicators of the question related to a country's general situation regarding overall economy, capital expenditures and private consumption (present judgement, compared to same time last year, expected situation by the end of the next six months) of the World Economic Survey (WES) carried out by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in co-operation with the International Chamber of Commerce. The forecast competition is undertaken for fourteen countries of the European Union. The main results of the forecast competition are offered for raw data for the period ranging from 1989 to 2008, using the last eight quarters for comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques. ANN and ARIMA models outperform SETAR and AR models. Enlarging the observed time series of Business Survey Indicators is of utmost importance in order of assessing the implications of the current situation and its use as input in quantitative forecast models.

Alternative Economic Indicators

Author : C. James Hueng
Publisher : W.E. Upjohn Institute
ISBN 13 : 0880996765
Total Pages : 133 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Alternative Economic Indicators by : C. James Hueng

Download or read book Alternative Economic Indicators written by C. James Hueng and published by W.E. Upjohn Institute. This book was released on 2020-09-08 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.

Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys

Author : United Nations Publications
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789211616040
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (16 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys by : United Nations Publications

Download or read book Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys written by United Nations Publications and published by . This book was released on 2017-03-15 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys provides best practices and harmonized principles on how to conduct economic tendency survey from sample selection, questionnaire design, survey questions, survey execution, to data processing and dissemination. It also provides examples of uses of these surveys, for example, for composite tendency indicators. These surveys provide qualitative information that cannot be collected using other quantitative statistical methods. They also serve as an integral part of an early warning system because they provide information about the occurrence and timing of upturns and downturns of the economy.

A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output

Author : Patrick Blagrave
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475565135
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output by : Patrick Blagrave

Download or read book A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-07 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.

Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting

Author : James H. Stock
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226774740
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (267 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting by : James H. Stock

Download or read book Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.

Inflation Expectations

Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Distribution Data Guide

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 546 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (243 download)

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Book Synopsis Distribution Data Guide by :

Download or read book Distribution Data Guide written by and published by . This book was released on 1958 with total page 546 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Real-Time Data Capture a Clear and Concise Reference

Author : Gerardus Blokdyk
Publisher : 5starcooks
ISBN 13 : 9780655435310
Total Pages : 282 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (353 download)

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Book Synopsis Real-Time Data Capture a Clear and Concise Reference by : Gerardus Blokdyk

Download or read book Real-Time Data Capture a Clear and Concise Reference written by Gerardus Blokdyk and published by 5starcooks. This book was released on 2018-10-22 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How will you insure seamless interoperability of Real-Time Data Capture moving forward? What are the expected benefits of Real-Time Data Capture to the business? What does Real-Time Data Capture success mean to the stakeholders? What is your Real-Time Data Capture strategy? What is Real-Time Data Capture's impact on utilizing the best solution(s)? Defining, designing, creating, and implementing a process to solve a challenge or meet an objective is the most valuable role... In EVERY group, company, organization and department. Unless you are talking a one-time, single-use project, there should be a process. Whether that process is managed and implemented by humans, AI, or a combination of the two, it needs to be designed by someone with a complex enough perspective to ask the right questions. Someone capable of asking the right questions and step back and say, 'What are we really trying to accomplish here? And is there a different way to look at it?' This Self-Assessment empowers people to do just that - whether their title is entrepreneur, manager, consultant, (Vice-)President, CxO etc... - they are the people who rule the future. They are the person who asks the right questions to make Real-Time Data Capture investments work better. This Real-Time Data Capture All-Inclusive Self-Assessment enables You to be that person. All the tools you need to an in-depth Real-Time Data Capture Self-Assessment. Featuring 668 new and updated case-based questions, organized into seven core areas of process design, this Self-Assessment will help you identify areas in which Real-Time Data Capture improvements can be made. In using the questions you will be better able to: - diagnose Real-Time Data Capture projects, initiatives, organizations, businesses and processes using accepted diagnostic standards and practices - implement evidence-based best practice strategies aligned with overall goals - integrate recent advances in Real-Time Data Capture and process design strategies into practice according to best practice guidelines Using a Self-Assessment tool known as the Real-Time Data Capture Scorecard, you will develop a clear picture of which Real-Time Data Capture areas need attention. Your purchase includes access details to the Real-Time Data Capture self-assessment dashboard download which gives you your dynamically prioritized projects-ready tool and shows your organization exactly what to do next. You will receive the following contents with New and Updated specific criteria: - The latest quick edition of the book in PDF - The latest complete edition of the book in PDF, which criteria correspond to the criteria in... - The Self-Assessment Excel Dashboard, and... - Example pre-filled Self-Assessment Excel Dashboard to get familiar with results generation ...plus an extra, special, resource that helps you with project managing. INCLUDES LIFETIME SELF ASSESSMENT UPDATES Every self assessment comes with Lifetime Updates and Lifetime Free Updated Books. Lifetime Updates is an industry-first feature which allows you to receive verified self assessment updates, ensuring you always have the most accurate information at your fingertips.

Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 398 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis by :

Download or read book Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 2

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9264105840
Total Pages : 257 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (641 download)

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Book Synopsis OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 2 by : OECD

Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 2 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2003-12-18 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue of the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years as well as looking at fiscal policy and its influence on economic activity and fiscal relations across levels of government. It also looks at raising the cost effectiveness of government spending.

Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance

Author : El Bachir Boukherouaa
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1589063953
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance by : El Bachir Boukherouaa

Download or read book Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance written by El Bachir Boukherouaa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.

Doing Business 2018

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464811474
Total Pages : 1217 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Doing Business 2018 by : World Bank

Download or read book Doing Business 2018 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2017-11-14 with total page 1217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fifteen in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 190 economies, Doing Business 2018 measures aspects of regulation affecting 10 areas of everyday business activity: • Starting a business • Dealing with construction permits • Getting electricity • Registering property • Getting credit • Protecting minority investors • Paying taxes • Trading across borders • Enforcing contracts • Resolving insolvency These areas are included in the distance to frontier score and ease of doing business ranking. Doing Business also measures features of labor market regulation, which is not included in these two measures. The report updates all indicators as of June 1, 2017, ranks economies on their overall “ease of doing business†?, and analyzes reforms to business regulation †“ identifying which economies are strengthening their business environment the most. Doing Business illustrates how reforms in business regulations are being used to analyze economic outcomes for domestic entrepreneurs and for the wider economy. It is a flagship product produced in partnership by the World Bank Group that garners worldwide attention on regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship. More than 137 economies have used the Doing Business indicators to shape reform agendas and monitor improvements on the ground. In addition, the Doing Business data has generated over 2,182 articles in peer-reviewed academic journals since its inception. Data Notes; Distance to Frontier and Ease of Doing Business Ranking; and Summaries of Doing Business Reforms in 2016/17 can be downloaded separately from the Doing Business website.