Art Of Prediction

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Superforecasting

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 331 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)

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Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Future Babble

Author : Dan Gardner
Publisher : McClelland & Stewart
ISBN 13 : 0771035217
Total Pages : 319 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Future Babble by : Dan Gardner

Download or read book Future Babble written by Dan Gardner and published by McClelland & Stewart. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

The Art of Prediction in Astrology

Author : Gayatri Devi Vasudev
Publisher : Motilal Banarsidass Publishe
ISBN 13 : 9788120832299
Total Pages : 284 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (322 download)

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Book Synopsis The Art of Prediction in Astrology by : Gayatri Devi Vasudev

Download or read book The Art of Prediction in Astrology written by Gayatri Devi Vasudev and published by Motilal Banarsidass Publishe. This book was released on 2008-08-30 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Astrology and interest in it have been growing at a pace that does justice to the subject as a discipline of great consequence in handling the complexities and ills of human life and existence. The Art of Prediction in Astrology is a simple guide to the techniques of interpretation of the horoscope. This book teaches how to apply and interpret some important planetary combinations and dicta found in classical works to practical cases. This shows further how to analyse and understand:*Yogas for fame and lasting reputation, renunciation, spiritual realization, tyranny and homicidal tendencies.*Difficult concepts such as the difference between Resi and Bhave, Yamaganda and Yamakantaka, the Moon's role in understanding human psychology and behavious and the nexus between Rahu-Ketu and schizophrenic tendencies.*Eclipses and how they influence the timing of events.*Solar activity and planetary movements in relation to weather, agricultural crops and tsunamis.*Principles of Muhurta and natal horoscopy in making forecasts on the fall and continuance of governments and how Martian movements can trigger terrorist attacks such as that of September 11, 2001.*Simplifies the intricate art of chart delineation with illustrations of important personalities.

Numerical Simulation, An Art of Prediction 1

Author : Jean-François Sigrist
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1786304317
Total Pages : 276 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (863 download)

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Book Synopsis Numerical Simulation, An Art of Prediction 1 by : Jean-François Sigrist

Download or read book Numerical Simulation, An Art of Prediction 1 written by Jean-François Sigrist and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-04-14 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Numerical simulation is a technique of major importance in various technical and scientific fields. Used to understand diverse physical phenomena or to design everyday objects, it plays a major role in innovation in the industrial sector. Whilst engineering curricula now include training courses dedicated to it, numerical simulation is still not well-known in some economic sectors, and even less so among the general public. Simulation involves the mathematical modeling of the real world, coupled with the computing power offered by modern technology. Designed to perform virtual experiments, digital simulation can be considered as an "art of prediction". Embellished with a rich iconography and based on the testimony of researchers and engineers, this book shines a light on this little-known art. It is the first of two volumes and focuses on the principles, methods and industrial practice of numerical modeling.

The Secrets of the Vaulted Sky

Author : David Berlinski
Publisher : Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
ISBN 13 : 9780151005277
Total Pages : 326 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (52 download)

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Book Synopsis The Secrets of the Vaulted Sky by : David Berlinski

Download or read book The Secrets of the Vaulted Sky written by David Berlinski and published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. This book was released on 2003 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores the enigmatic world of astrology--one of the oldest "predictive arts"--Revealing its complexities and scientific merit.

Medical Astrology-A Rational Approach

Author : J.N. Bhasin
Publisher : Sagar Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 217 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Medical Astrology-A Rational Approach by : J.N. Bhasin

Download or read book Medical Astrology-A Rational Approach written by J.N. Bhasin and published by Sagar Publications. This book was released on 1970 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It has been endeavoured to introduce a few specialties in this book. Firstly to discuss for the benefit of the student of astrology a maximum number of diseases under astrological laws. Secondly to supply in support of that discussion as many illustrations from actual life as is possible, with a view to make the subject readily understandable. Thirdly we have tried to place the astrological material in a rational & logical manner, so that the question of health and disease can be tackled in an independent way without being too much subservient to the shlokas of the text. We do meet with shlokas dealing with most of the diseases but there are very few books, if at all, which discuss the “how” and “why” of disease. We have attempted to discuss the constituents of diseases and the astrological factors representing them severely in order that the student can extend the application of the method to new diseases.

The Signal and the Noise

Author : Nate Silver
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0143125087
Total Pages : 577 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (431 download)

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Book Synopsis The Signal and the Noise by : Nate Silver

Download or read book The Signal and the Noise written by Nate Silver and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015-02-03 with total page 577 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

Memory as Prediction

Author : Tomaso Vecchi
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262361221
Total Pages : 211 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Memory as Prediction by : Tomaso Vecchi

Download or read book Memory as Prediction written by Tomaso Vecchi and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Theoretical reflections and analytical observations on memory and prediction, linking these concepts to the role of the cerebellum in higher cognition. What is memory? What is memory for? Where is memory in the brain? Although memory is probably the most studied function in cognition, these fundamental questions remain challenging. We can try to answer the question of memory's purpose by defining the function of memory as remembering the past. And yet this definition is not consistent with the many errors that characterize our memory, or with the phylogenetic and ontogenetic origin of memory. In this book, Tomaso Vecchi and Daniele Gatti argue that the purpose of memory is not to remember the past but to predict the future.

State-of-the-art for Prediction of Pavement Response

Author : John E. Crawford
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 92 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis State-of-the-art for Prediction of Pavement Response by : John E. Crawford

Download or read book State-of-the-art for Prediction of Pavement Response written by John E. Crawford and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Duck on a Bike

Author : David Shannon
Publisher : Scholastic Inc.
ISBN 13 : 0545530032
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (455 download)

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Book Synopsis Duck on a Bike by : David Shannon

Download or read book Duck on a Bike written by David Shannon and published by Scholastic Inc.. This book was released on 2016-07-26 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this off-beat book perfect for reading aloud, a Caldecott Honor winner shares the story of a duck who rides a bike with hilarious results. One day down on the farm, Duck got a wild idea. “I bet I could ride a bike,” he thought. He waddled over to where the boy parked his bike, climbed on, and began to ride. At first, he rode slowly and he wobbled a lot, but it was fun! Duck rode past Cow and waved to her. “Hello, Cow!” said Duck. “Moo,” said Cow. But what she thought was, “A duck on a bike? That’s the silliest thing I’ve ever seen!” And so, Duck rides past Sheep, Horse, and all the other barnyard animals. Suddenly, a group of kids ride by on their bikes and run into the farmhouse, leaving the bikes outside. Now ALL the animals can ride bikes, just like Duck! Praise for Duck on a Bike “Shannon serves up a sunny blend of humor and action in this delightful tale of a Duck who spies a red bicycle one day and gets “a wild idea” . . . Add to all this the abundant opportunity for youngsters to chime in with barnyard responses (“M-o-o-o”; “Cluck! Cluck!”), and the result is one swell read-aloud, packed with freewheeling fun.” —Publishers Weekly “Grab your funny bone—Shannon . . . rides again! . . . A “quackerjack” of a terrific escapade.” —Kirkus Reviews

Expert Political Judgment

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400888816
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Expert Political Judgment by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Seeing into the Future

Author : Martin van Creveld
Publisher : Reaktion Books
ISBN 13 : 1789142296
Total Pages : 297 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (891 download)

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Book Synopsis Seeing into the Future by : Martin van Creveld

Download or read book Seeing into the Future written by Martin van Creveld and published by Reaktion Books. This book was released on 2020-09-07 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ability to predict the future is essential to modern life. Planning for population growth or changes in weather patterns or forecasting demand for products and managing inventories would be impossible without it. But how have people through the ages gone about making predictions? What were their underlying assumptions, and what methods did they use? Have increased computer power and the newest algorithms improved our success in anticipating the future, or are we still only as good (or as bad) as our ancestors bent over their auguries? From the ancients watching the flight of birds to the murky activities of Google and Facebook today, Seeing into the Future provides vital insight into the past, present, and—of course—future of prediction.

Future Babble

Author : Daniel Gardner
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1101476095
Total Pages : 293 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis Future Babble by : Daniel Gardner

Download or read book Future Babble written by Daniel Gardner and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2011-03-17 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history. In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

Predictive Analytics

Author : Eric Siegel
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119153654
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (191 download)

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Book Synopsis Predictive Analytics by : Eric Siegel

Download or read book Predictive Analytics written by Eric Siegel and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-12 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Mesmerizing & fascinating..." —The Seattle Post-Intelligencer "The Freakonomics of big data." —Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of Advertising.com Award-winning | Used by over 30 universities | Translated into 9 languages An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating — surprisingly accessible — introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics (aka machine learning) works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a “how to” for hands-on techies, the book serves lay readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques. Prediction is booming. It reinvents industries and runs the world. Companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities are seizing upon the power. These institutions predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die. Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, streamlines manufacturing, conquers spam, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections. How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, flourishing unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn. Predictive analytics (aka machine learning) unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future drives millions of decisions more effectively, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate. In this lucid, captivating introduction — now in its Revised and Updated edition — former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction: What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession. Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they even know it themselves. Why early retirement predicts a shorter life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights. Five reasons why organizations predict death — including one health insurance company. How U.S. Bank and Obama for America calculated the way to most strongly persuade each individual. Why the NSA wants all your data: machine learning supercomputers to fight terrorism. How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy! How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job. How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide how long convicts remain in prison. 182 examples from Airbnb, the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, the IRS, LinkedIn, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, PayPal, Pfizer, Spotify, Uber, UPS, Wikipedia, and more. How does predictive analytics work? This jam-packed book satisfies by demystifying the intriguing science under the hood. For future hands-on practitioners pursuing a career in the field, it sets a strong foundation, delivers the prerequisite knowledge, and whets your appetite for more. A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics constantly affects our daily lives. Whether you are a

Hora Shatak: Basic Concepts Of Predictive Astrology (rev.Edn.)

Author : J. N. Bhasin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9788188230334
Total Pages : 176 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Hora Shatak: Basic Concepts Of Predictive Astrology (rev.Edn.) by : J. N. Bhasin

Download or read book Hora Shatak: Basic Concepts Of Predictive Astrology (rev.Edn.) written by J. N. Bhasin and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This First Ever English Rendering Explains The Rules For The Judgement Of Horoscopes With 80 Illustrations To Enhance The Knowledge And Predictive Capability Of Those Who Get The Previlege Of Reading It.

Patterns, Predictions, and Actions: Foundations of Machine Learning

Author : Moritz Hardt
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691233721
Total Pages : 321 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (912 download)

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Book Synopsis Patterns, Predictions, and Actions: Foundations of Machine Learning by : Moritz Hardt

Download or read book Patterns, Predictions, and Actions: Foundations of Machine Learning written by Moritz Hardt and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2022-08-23 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An authoritative, up-to-date graduate textbook on machine learning that highlights its historical context and societal impacts Patterns, Predictions, and Actions introduces graduate students to the essentials of machine learning while offering invaluable perspective on its history and social implications. Beginning with the foundations of decision making, Moritz Hardt and Benjamin Recht explain how representation, optimization, and generalization are the constituents of supervised learning. They go on to provide self-contained discussions of causality, the practice of causal inference, sequential decision making, and reinforcement learning, equipping readers with the concepts and tools they need to assess the consequences that may arise from acting on statistical decisions. Provides a modern introduction to machine learning, showing how data patterns support predictions and consequential actions Pays special attention to societal impacts and fairness in decision making Traces the development of machine learning from its origins to today Features a novel chapter on machine learning benchmarks and datasets Invites readers from all backgrounds, requiring some experience with probability, calculus, and linear algebra An essential textbook for students and a guide for researchers

Looking Forward

Author : Jamie L. Pietruska
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022647500X
Total Pages : 295 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (264 download)

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Book Synopsis Looking Forward by : Jamie L. Pietruska

Download or read book Looking Forward written by Jamie L. Pietruska and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2017-12-08 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction: crisis of certainty -- Cotton guesses -- The daily "probabilities"--Weather prophecies -- Economies of the future -- Promises of love and money -- Epilogue: specters of uncertainty