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Are Stock Markets Really Like Beauty Contests Empirical Evidence Of Higher Order Beliefs Impact On Asset Prices
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Book Synopsis Are Stock Markets Really Like Beauty Contests? Empirical Evidence of Higher Order Belief's Impact on Asset Prices by : Pierre Monnin
Download or read book Are Stock Markets Really Like Beauty Contests? Empirical Evidence of Higher Order Belief's Impact on Asset Prices written by Pierre Monnin and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The goal of this paper is to assess, for the first time, the empirical impact of Keynes' beauty contest, or higher order beliefs, on asset price volatility. The paper shows that heterogeneous expectations induce higher order beliefs and that heterogeneous expectation asset pricing models theoretically generate more volatility than rational expectation models. The paper also explains how, with some assumptions on the distribution of public and private information, a model with higher order beliefs can be empirically estimated. The model is then applied to annual data of the American stock market. The results show that a model with higher order beliefs generates a level of volatility in line with the price volatility observed on the market.
Book Synopsis Behavioral Finance and Capital Markets by : A. Szyszka
Download or read book Behavioral Finance and Capital Markets written by A. Szyszka and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-09-04 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral Finance helps investors understand unusual asset prices and empirical observations originating out of capital markets. At its core, this field of study aids investors in navigating complex psychological trappings in market behavior and making smarter investment decisions. Behavioral Finance and Capital Markets reveals the main foundations underpinning neoclassical capital market and asset pricing theory, as filtered through the lens of behavioral finance. Szyszka presents and classifies many of the dynamic arguments being made in the current literature on the topic through the use of a new, ground-breaking methodology termed: the General Behavioral Asset Pricing Model (GBM). GBM describes how asset prices are influenced by various behavioral heuristics and how these prices deviate from fundamental values due to irrational behavior on the part of investors. The connection between psychological factors responsible for irrational behavior and market pricing anomalies is featured extensively throughout the text. Alternative explanations for various theoretical and empirical market puzzles - such as the 2008 U.S. financial crisis - are also discussed in a convincing and interesting manner. The book also provides interesting insights into behavioral aspects of corporate finance.
Book Synopsis Beauty Contests and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets by : Franklin Allen
Download or read book Beauty Contests and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets written by Franklin Allen and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a financial market where traders are risk averse and short lived and prices are noisy, asset prices today depend on the average expectation today of tomorrow's price. Thus (iterating this relationship) the date 1 price equals the date 1 average expectation of the date 2 average expectation of the date 3 price. This will not, in general, equal the date 1 average expectation of the date 3 price. We show how this failure of the law of iterated expectations for average belief can help understand the role of higher-order beliefs in a fully rational asset pricing model.
Book Synopsis Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets by : Franklin Allen
Download or read book Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets written by Franklin Allen and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a financial market where traders are risk averse and short lived, and prices are noisy, asset prices today depend on the average expectation today of tomorrow's price. Thus (iterating this relationship) the date 1 price equals the date 1 average expectation of the date 2 average expectation of the date 3 price. This will not in general equal the date 1 average expectation of the date 3 price. We show how this failure of the law of iterated expectations for average belief can help understand the role of higher order beliefs in a fully rational asset pricing model and explain over-reaction to (noisy) public information.
Book Synopsis Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns by : Markus Konrad Brunnermeier
Download or read book Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns written by Markus Konrad Brunnermeier and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Human beings want to believe that good outcomes in the future are more likely, but also want to make good decisions that increase average outcomes in the future. We consider a general equilibrium model with complete markets and show that when investors hold beliefs that optimally balance these two incentives, portfolio holdings and asset prices match six observed patterns: (i) because the cost of biased beliefs are typically second-order, investors typically hold biased assessments of probabilities and so are not perfectly diversified according to objective metrics; (ii) because the costs of biased beliefs temper these biases, the utility costs of the lack of diversification are limited; (iii) because there is a complementarity between believing a state more likely and purchasing more of the asset that pays off in that state, investors over-invest in only one Arrow-Debreu security and smooth their consumption well across the remaining states; (iv) because different households can settle on different states to be optimistic about, optimal portfolios of ex ante identical investors can be heterogeneous; (v) because low-price and low-probability states are the cheapest states to buy consumption in, overoptimism about these states distorts consumption the least in the rest of the states, so that investors tend to overinvest in the most skewed securities; (vi) finally, because investors with optimal expectations have higher demand for more skewed assets, ceteris paribus, more skewed asset can have lower average returns.
Book Synopsis Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets by : Wing-Keung Wong
Download or read book Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets written by Wing-Keung Wong and published by Mdpi AG. This book was released on 2022-02-17 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Efficient Market Hypothesis believes that it is impossible for an investor to outperform the market because all available information is already built into stock prices. However, some anomalies could persist in stock markets while some other anomalies could appear, disappear and re-appear again without any warning. A Special Issue on "Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets" will be devoted to advancements in the theoretical development of market efficiency and anomaly in the Stock Market, as well as applications in Stock Market efficiency and anomalies.
Book Synopsis Beauty Contests Under Private Information and Diverse Beliefs by : Mordecai Kurz
Download or read book Beauty Contests Under Private Information and Diverse Beliefs written by Mordecai Kurz and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper contrasts theories that explain diverse belief by asymmetric private information (in short PI) with theories which postulate agents use subjective heterogenous beliefs (in short HB). We focus on problems where agents forecast aggregates such as profit rate of the Samp;P500 and our model is similar to the one used in the literature on asset pricing (e.g. Brown and Jennings (1989), Grundy and McNichols (1989), Allen, Morris and Shin (2006)).We first argue there is no a-priori conceptual basis to assuming PI about economic aggregates. Since PI is not observed, models with PI offer no testable hypotheses, making it possible to prove anything with PI. In contrast, agents with HB reveal their forecasts hence data on market belief is used to test hypotheses of HB. We show the common knowledge assumptions of the PI theory are implausible. The theories differ on four main analytical issues. (1) The pricing theory under PI implies prices have infinite memory and at each t depend upon unobservable variables. In contrast, under HB prices have finite memory and depend only upon observable variables. (2) The quot;Beauty Contestquot; implications of the two are different. Under PI today's price depends upon today's market belief about tomorrow's mean belief which is correct and depends upon supply shock and inference from prices. Under HB it depends upon today's market belief about tomorrow's market beliefs. Tomorrow's beliefs are, in part, beliefs about future beliefs and are often mistaken. Market forecast mistakes are key to Beauty Contests, and are a central cause of market uncertainty called quot;endogenous uncertainty.quot; (3) Contrary to PI, theories with HB have wide empirical implications which are testable with available data. (4) PI theories assume unobserved data and hence do not restrict behavior, while rationality conditions impose restrictions on any HB theory. We explain the tight restrictions on the model's parameters imposed by the theory of Rational Beliefs.
Book Synopsis Liquidity and Asset Prices by : Yakov Amihud
Download or read book Liquidity and Asset Prices written by Yakov Amihud and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2006 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Liquidity and Asset Prices reviews the literature that studies the relationship between liquidity and asset prices. The authors review the theoretical literature that predicts how liquidity affects a security's required return and discuss the empirical connection between the two. Liquidity and Asset Prices surveys the theory of liquidity-based asset pricing followed by the empirical evidence. The theory section proceeds from basic models with exogenous holding periods to those that incorporate additional elements of risk and endogenous holding periods. The empirical section reviews the evidence on the liquidity premium for stocks, bonds, and other financial assets.
Book Synopsis Higher-order Beliefs Among Professional Stock Market Forecasters by : Jesper Rangvid
Download or read book Higher-order Beliefs Among Professional Stock Market Forecasters written by Jesper Rangvid and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A sizeable literature reports that financial market analysts and forecasters herd for reputational reasons. Using new data from a large survey of professional forecasters' expectations about stock market movements, we find strong evidence that the expected average of all forecasters' forecasts (the expected consensus forecast) influences an individual forecaster's own forecast. This looks like herding. In our survey, forecasters do not herd for reputational reasons, however. Instead of herding, we suggest that forecasters form higher-order expectations in the spirit of Keynes (1936). We find that young forecasters and portfolio managers, who in previous studies have been reported to be those who in particular herd, rely more on the expected consensus forecasts than other forecasters. Given that forecasters have no incentive to herd in our study, we conclude that our results indicate that the incorporation of the expected consensus forecast into individual forecasts is most likely due to higher-order expectations.
Book Synopsis Financial Markets Theory by : Emilio Barucci
Download or read book Financial Markets Theory written by Emilio Barucci and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-06-08 with total page 843 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work, now in a thoroughly revised second edition, presents the economic foundations of financial markets theory from a mathematically rigorous standpoint and offers a self-contained critical discussion based on empirical results. It is the only textbook on the subject to include more than two hundred exercises, with detailed solutions to selected exercises. Financial Markets Theory covers classical asset pricing theory in great detail, including utility theory, equilibrium theory, portfolio selection, mean-variance portfolio theory, CAPM, CCAPM, APT, and the Modigliani-Miller theorem. Starting from an analysis of the empirical evidence on the theory, the authors provide a discussion of the relevant literature, pointing out the main advances in classical asset pricing theory and the new approaches designed to address asset pricing puzzles and open problems (e.g., behavioral finance). Later chapters in the book contain more advanced material, including on the role of information in financial markets, non-classical preferences, noise traders and market microstructure. This textbook is aimed at graduate students in mathematical finance and financial economics, but also serves as a useful reference for practitioners working in insurance, banking, investment funds and financial consultancy. Introducing necessary tools from microeconomic theory, this book is highly accessible and completely self-contained. Advance praise for the second edition: "Financial Markets Theory is comprehensive, rigorous, and yet highly accessible. With their second edition, Barucci and Fontana have set an even higher standard!"Darrell Duffie, Dean Witter Distinguished Professor of Finance, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University "This comprehensive book is a great self-contained source for studying most major theoretical aspects of financial economics. What makes the book particularly useful is that it provides a lot of intuition, detailed discussions of empirical implications, a very thorough survey of the related literature, and many completely solved exercises. The second edition covers more ground and provides many more proofs, and it will be a handy addition to the library of every student or researcher in the field."Jaksa Cvitanic, Richard N. Merkin Professor of Mathematical Finance, Caltech "The second edition of Financial Markets Theory by Barucci and Fontana is a superb achievement that knits together all aspects of modern finance theory, including financial markets microstructure, in a consistent and self-contained framework. Many exercises, together with their detailed solutions, make this book indispensable for serious students in finance."Michel Crouhy, Head of Research and Development, NATIXIS
Book Synopsis Psychology of the Stock Market by : G. C. Selden
Download or read book Psychology of the Stock Market written by G. C. Selden and published by Forgotten Books. This book was released on 2015-06-15 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excerpt from Psychology of the Stock Market This book is based upon the belief that the movements of prices on the exchanges are dependent to a very large degree on the mental attitude of the investing and trading public. It is the result of years of study and experience as fellow at Columbia University, news writer, statistician, on the editorial staff of The Magazine Of Wall Street, etc. The book is intended chiefly as a practical help to that considerable part of the community which is interested, directly or indirectly, in the markets; but it is hoped that it may also have some scientific value as a preliminary discussion in a new field, where opportunities for further research seem almost unlimited. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
Author :Stephen Robert Foerster Publisher :London : Richard Ivey School of Business, University of Western Ontario ISBN 13 : Total Pages :39 pages Book Rating :4.:/5 (369 download)
Book Synopsis The Effects of Market Segmentation and Illiquidity on Asset Prices : Evidence from Foreign Stocks Listing in the US by : Stephen Robert Foerster
Download or read book The Effects of Market Segmentation and Illiquidity on Asset Prices : Evidence from Foreign Stocks Listing in the US written by Stephen Robert Foerster and published by London : Richard Ivey School of Business, University of Western Ontario. This book was released on 1996 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Handbook of Experimental Economics by : John H. Kagel
Download or read book The Handbook of Experimental Economics written by John H. Kagel and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-05-05 with total page 742 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, which comprises eight chapters, presents a comprehensive critical survey of the results and methods of laboratory experiments in economics. The first chapter provides an introduction to experimental economics as a whole, with the remaining chapters providing surveys by leading practitioners in areas of economics that have seen a concentration of experiments: public goods, coordination problems, bargaining, industrial organization, asset markets, auctions, and individual decision making. The work aims both to help specialists set an agenda for future research and to provide nonspecialists with a critical review of work completed to date. Its focus is on elucidating the role of experimental studies as a progressive research tool so that wherever possible, emphasis is on series of experiments that build on one another. The contributors to the volume--Colin Camerer, Charles A. Holt, John H. Kagel, John O. Ledyard, Jack Ochs, Alvin E. Roth, and Shyam Sunder--adopt a particular methodological point of view: the way to learn how to design and conduct experiments is to consider how good experiments grow organically out of the issues and hypotheses they are designed to investigate.
Book Synopsis The Economics of Cryptocurrencies by : J. Mark Munoz
Download or read book The Economics of Cryptocurrencies written by J. Mark Munoz and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-12-03 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cryptocurrencies have had a profound effect on financial markets worldwide. This edited book aims to explore the economic implications of the use of cryptocurrencies. Drawing from chapter contributors from around the world, the book will be a valuable resource on the economics of cryptocurrencies. The intended audience is composed of academics, corporate leaders, entrepreneurs, government leaders, consultants and policy makers worldwide. Over the past few years, the topic of cryptocurrencies has gained global attention and has been the subject of discussion in various news media, in policy-making bodies and government entities, and in financial institutions, classrooms and boardrooms. Despite widespread interest, much remains unknown on what the economic implications of cryptocurrencies are. This book enhances the reader’s understanding of cryptocurrencies, its impact on industry and its implications on the political and economic environment. Drawing from chapter contributions from leading academics and thought leaders from around the world, this book is the definitive guide on the economics of cryptocurrencies. There is scarcity of well conceived, academically grounded literature on the impact of cryptocurrencies on industry, politics and economics. This pioneering book provides up-to-date and in-depth analysis on the subject. The book will be appealing to academic communities, business professionals and entrepreneurs in their quest for better understanding the challenges and opportunities brought about by cryptocurrencies. Consultants, government officials and policy makers will find the information helpful in defining strategic pathways into the future.
Book Synopsis The Antitrust Paradox by : Robert Bork
Download or read book The Antitrust Paradox written by Robert Bork and published by . This book was released on 2021-02-22 with total page 536 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most important book on antitrust ever written. It shows how antitrust suits adversely affect the consumer by encouraging a costly form of protection for inefficient and uncompetitive small businesses.
Book Synopsis Portfolio Structuring and the Value of Forecasting by : Jacques Lussier
Download or read book Portfolio Structuring and the Value of Forecasting written by Jacques Lussier and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2016-10-10 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Knowledge, Information, and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics by : Philippe Aghion
Download or read book Knowledge, Information, and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics written by Philippe Aghion and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2003-01-26 with total page 596 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assembling some of the leading figures in the field of macroeconomics, this text highlights the continuing influence of the ideas of Edmund Phelps since the early 1960s. The contributions address many of the most important current areas of macroeconomic research in 2003.
