Analysis Of Low Probability High Impact Risk Events

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Preparing for High-Impact, Low-Probability Events

Author : Bernice Lee
Publisher : Chatham House (Formerly Riia)
ISBN 13 : 9781862032538
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (325 download)

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Book Synopsis Preparing for High-Impact, Low-Probability Events by : Bernice Lee

Download or read book Preparing for High-Impact, Low-Probability Events written by Bernice Lee and published by Chatham House (Formerly Riia). This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The frequency of "high-impact, low-probability" (HILP) events in the last decade--such as Hurricane Katrina, the T hoku earthquake and tsunami, and major floods in Pakistan and Thailand--signals the emergence of a new "normal." In a world of globalized production and optimized supply chains, the impacts of HILP events spread rapidly and are felt on an international scale. This report examines the effects of the volcanic ash cloud that spread across Europe in April 2010 and draws lessons for other HILP events. It considers whether governments and the private sector are sufficiently prepared, how the global economy could be made more resilient, and the role of communications in a crisis."

The Owner's Role in Project Risk Management

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309181615
Total Pages : 102 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis The Owner's Role in Project Risk Management by : National Research Council

Download or read book The Owner's Role in Project Risk Management written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2005-02-25 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Effective risk management is essential for the success of large projects built and operated by the Department of Energy (DOE), particularly for the one-of-a-kind projects that characterize much of its mission. To enhance DOE's risk management efforts, the department asked the NRC to prepare a summary of the most effective practices used by leading owner organizations. The study's primary objective was to provide DOE project managers with a basic understanding of both the project owner's risk management role and effective oversight of those risk management activities delegated to contractors.

Myth and Geology

Author : Luigi Piccardi
Publisher : Geological Society of London
ISBN 13 : 9781862392168
Total Pages : 366 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (921 download)

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Book Synopsis Myth and Geology by : Luigi Piccardi

Download or read book Myth and Geology written by Luigi Piccardi and published by Geological Society of London. This book was released on 2007 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book is the first peer-reviewed collection of papers focusing on the potential of myth storylines to yield data and lessons that are of value to the geological sciences. Building on the nascent discipline of geomythology, scientists and scholars from a variety of disciplines have contributed to this volume. The geological hazards (such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and cosmic impacts) that have given rise to myths are considered, as are the sacred and cultural values associated with rocks, fossils, geological formations and landscapes. There are also discussions about the historical and literary perspectives of geomythology. Regional coverage includes Europe and the Mediterranean, Afghanistan, Cameroon, India, Australia, Japan, Pacific islands, South America and North America. Myth and Geology challenges the widespread notion that myths are fictitious or otherwise lacking in value for the physical sciences." -- BOOK JACKET.

OECD Reviews of Risk Management Policies Future Global Shocks Improving Risk Governance

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9264114580
Total Pages : 142 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (641 download)

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Book Synopsis OECD Reviews of Risk Management Policies Future Global Shocks Improving Risk Governance by : OECD

Download or read book OECD Reviews of Risk Management Policies Future Global Shocks Improving Risk Governance written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2011-08-04 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report provides strategic advice on preparing for and responding to potential global shocks.

Risk Analysis and Control for Industrial Processes - Gas, Oil and Chemicals

Author : H.J. Pasman
Publisher : Butterworth-Heinemann
ISBN 13 : 9780128000571
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (5 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Analysis and Control for Industrial Processes - Gas, Oil and Chemicals by : H.J. Pasman

Download or read book Risk Analysis and Control for Industrial Processes - Gas, Oil and Chemicals written by H.J. Pasman and published by Butterworth-Heinemann. This book was released on 2015-06-15 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk Analysis and Control for Industrial Processes - Gas, Oil and Chemicals provides an analysis of current approaches for preventing disasters, and gives readers an overview on which methods to adopt. The book covers safety regulations, history and trends, industrial disasters, safety problems, safety tools, and capital and operational costs versus the benefits of safety, all supporting project decision processes. Tools covered include present day array of risk assessment, tools including HAZOP, LOPA and ORA, but also new approaches such as System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Blended HAZID, applications of Bayesian data analytics, Bayesian networks, and others. The text is supported by valuable examples to help the reader achieve a greater understanding on how to perform safety analysis, identify potential issues, and predict the likelihood they may appear.

Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309161525
Total Pages : 161 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis by : National Research Council

Download or read book Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-09-10 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The events of September 11, 2001 changed perceptions, rearranged national priorities, and produced significant new government entities, including the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) created in 2003. While the principal mission of DHS is to lead efforts to secure the nation against those forces that wish to do harm, the department also has responsibilities in regard to preparation for and response to other hazards and disasters, such as floods, earthquakes, and other "natural" disasters. Whether in the context of preparedness, response or recovery from terrorism, illegal entry to the country, or natural disasters, DHS is committed to processes and methods that feature risk assessment as a critical component for making better-informed decisions. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis explores how DHS is building its capabilities in risk analysis to inform decision making. The department uses risk analysis to inform decisions ranging from high-level policy choices to fine-scale protocols that guide the minute-by-minute actions of DHS employees. Although DHS is responsible for mitigating a range of threats, natural disasters, and pandemics, its risk analysis efforts are weighted heavily toward terrorism. In addition to assessing the capability of DHS risk analysis methods to support decision-making, the book evaluates the quality of the current approach to estimating risk and discusses how to improve current risk analysis procedures. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis recommends that DHS continue to build its integrated risk management framework. It also suggests that the department improve the way models are developed and used and follow time-tested scientific practices, among other recommendations.

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment

Author : Terje Aven
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118489586
Total Pages : 212 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (184 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Risk Assessment by : Terje Aven

Download or read book Uncertainty in Risk Assessment written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-02-03 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.

Catastrophe Modeling

Author : Patricia Grossi
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387231293
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (872 download)

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Book Synopsis Catastrophe Modeling by : Patricia Grossi

Download or read book Catastrophe Modeling written by Patricia Grossi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-01-27 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on the research that has been conducted at Wharton Risk Management Center over the past five years on catastrophic risk. Covers a hot topic in the light of recent terroristic activities and nature catastrophes. Develops risk management strategies for reducing and spreading the losses from future disasters. Provides glossary of definitions and terms used throughout the book.

Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis

Author : Dr David Hulett
Publisher : Gower Publishing, Ltd.
ISBN 13 : 1409459101
Total Pages : 241 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (94 download)

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Book Synopsis Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis by : Dr David Hulett

Download or read book Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis written by Dr David Hulett and published by Gower Publishing, Ltd.. This book was released on 2012-09-28 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project managers tend to believe their cost estimates - whether they have exceeded budgets in the past or not. It is dangerous to accept the engineering cost estimates, which are often optimistic or unrealistic. Though cost estimates incorporate contingency reserves below-the-line, these estimates of reserves often do not benefit from a rigorous assessment of risk to project costs. Risks to cost come from multiple sources including uncertain project duration, which is often ignored in cost risk analyses. In short, experience shows that cost estimating on projects is rarely successful - cost overruns routinely occur. There are effective ways to estimate the impact on the cost of complex projects from project risks of all types, including traditional cost-type risks and the indirect but often substantial impact from risks usually thought of as affecting project schedules. Integrated cost-schedule risk anlaysis helps us determine how likely the project will go over budget with the current plan, how much contingency reserve is required to achieve a desired level of certainty, and which risks are most important so the project manager can mitigate them and achieve a better result. Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis provides solutions for these and other challenges. This book follows on from David Hulett's highly-praised Practical Schedule Risk Analysis. It focuses on the way that schedule risk can generate cost risk, and how to handle this relationship. It also applies the Risk Driver Method to the analysis so that you can clearly and transparently identify the key risks, rather than just the most risky cost line items. With detailed worked examples and over 70 illustrations, Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis offers the definitive guide to this critically important aspect of project management from surely the world's leading commentator.

Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309253705
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies by : National Research Council

Download or read book Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-08-14 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the past several years, some energy technologies that inject or extract fluid from the Earth, such as oil and gas development and geothermal energy development, have been found or suspected to cause seismic events, drawing heightened public attention. Although only a very small fraction of injection and extraction activities among the hundreds of thousands of energy development sites in the United States have induced seismicity at levels noticeable to the public, understanding the potential for inducing felt seismic events and for limiting their occurrence and impacts is desirable for state and federal agencies, industry, and the public at large. To better understand, limit, and respond to induced seismic events, work is needed to build robust prediction models, to assess potential hazards, and to help relevant agencies coordinate to address them. Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies identifies gaps in knowledge and research needed to advance the understanding of induced seismicity; identify gaps in induced seismic hazard assessment methodologies and the research to close those gaps; and assess options for steps toward best practices with regard to energy development and induced seismicity potential.

Identifying and Managing Project Risk

Author : Tom Kendrick
Publisher : AMACOM
ISBN 13 : 0814413412
Total Pages : 370 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (144 download)

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Book Synopsis Identifying and Managing Project Risk by : Tom Kendrick

Download or read book Identifying and Managing Project Risk written by Tom Kendrick and published by AMACOM. This book was released on 2009-02-27 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Winner of the Project Management Institute’s David I. Cleland Project Management Literature Award 2010 It’s no wonder that project managers spend so much time focusing their attention on risk identification. Important projects tend to be time constrained, pose huge technical challenges, and suffer from a lack of adequate resources. Identifying and Managing Project Risk, now updated and consistent with the very latest Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)® Guide, takes readers through every phase of a project, showing them how to consider the possible risks involved at every point in the process. Drawing on real-world situations and hundreds of examples, the book outlines proven methods, demonstrating key ideas for project risk planning and showing how to use high-level risk assessment tools. Analyzing aspects such as available resources, project scope, and scheduling, this new edition also explores the growing area of Enterprise Risk Management. Comprehensive and completely up-to-date, this book helps readers determine risk factors thoroughly and decisively...before a project gets derailed.

Dynamic Risk Analysis in the Chemical and Petroleum Industry

Author : Nicola Paltrinieri
Publisher : Butterworth-Heinemann
ISBN 13 : 0128038233
Total Pages : 286 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (28 download)

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Book Synopsis Dynamic Risk Analysis in the Chemical and Petroleum Industry by : Nicola Paltrinieri

Download or read book Dynamic Risk Analysis in the Chemical and Petroleum Industry written by Nicola Paltrinieri and published by Butterworth-Heinemann. This book was released on 2016-08-06 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamic Risk Analysis in the Chemical and Petroleum Industry focuses on bridging the gap between research and industry by responding to the following questions: - What are the most relevant developments of risk analysis? - How can these studies help industry in the prevention of major accidents? Paltrinieri and Khan provide support for professionals who plan to improve risk analysis by introducing innovative techniques and exploiting the potential of data share and process technologies. This concrete reference within an ever-growing variety of innovations will be most helpful to process safety managers, HSE managers, safety engineers and safety engineering students. This book is divided into four parts. The Introduction provides an overview of the state-of-the-art risk analysis methods and the most up-to-date popular definitions of accident scenarios. The second section on Dynamic Risk Analysis shows the dynamic evolution of risk analysis and covers Hazard Identification, Frequency Analysis, Consequence Analysis and Establishing the Risk Picture. The third section on Interaction with Parallel Disciplines illustrates the interaction between risk analysis and other disciplines from parallel fields, such as the nuclear, the economic and the financial sectors. The final section on Dynamic Risk Management addresses risk management, which may dynamically learn from itself and improve in a spiral process leading to a resilient system. - Helps dynamic analysis and management of risk in chemical and process industry - Provides industry examples and techniques to assist you with risk- based decision making - Addresses also the human, economic and reputational aspects composing the overall risk picture

Evaluation and Decision Models

Author : Denis Bouyssou
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461515939
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (615 download)

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Book Synopsis Evaluation and Decision Models by : Denis Bouyssou

Download or read book Evaluation and Decision Models written by Denis Bouyssou and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1. 1 Motivations Deciding is a very complex and difficult task. Some people even argue that our ability to make decisions in complex situations is the main feature that distinguishes us from animals (it is also common to say that laughing is the main difference). Nevertheless, when the task is too complex or the interests at stake are too important, it quite often happens that we do not know or we are not sure what to decide and, in many instances, we resort to a decision support technique: an informal one-we toss a coin, we ask an oracle, we visit an astrologer, we consult an expert, we think-or a formal one. Although informal decision support techniques can be of interest, in this book, we will focus on formal ones. Among the latter, we find some well-known decision support techniques: cost-benefit analysis, multiple criteria decision analysis, decision trees, . . . But there are many other ones, sometimes not presented as decision support techniques, that help making decisions. Let us cite but a few examples. • When the director of a school must decide whether a given student will pass or fail, he usually asks each teacher to assess the merits of the student by means of a grade. The director then sums the grades and compares the result to a threshold. • When a bank must decide whether a given client will obtain a credit or not, a technique, called credit scoring, is often used.

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management

Author : Yacov Y. Haimes
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118210921
Total Pages : 810 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (182 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management by : Yacov Y. Haimes

Download or read book Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management written by Yacov Y. Haimes and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-20 with total page 810 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examines timely multidisciplinary applications, problems, and case histories in risk modeling, assessment, and management Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Third Edition describes the state of the art of risk analysis, a rapidly growing field with important applications in engineering, science, manufacturing, business, homeland security, management, and public policy. Unlike any other text on the subject, this definitive work applies the art and science of risk analysis to current and emergent engineering and socioeconomic problems. It clearly demonstrates how to quantify risk and construct probabilities for real-world decision-making problems, including a host of institutional, organizational, and political issues. Avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible, this important new edition presents basic concepts as well as advanced material. It incorporates numerous examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion and features restructured and updated chapters, as well as: A new chapter applying systems-driven and risk-based analysis to a variety of Homeland Security issues An accompanying FTP site—developed with Professor Joost Santos—that offers 150 example problems with an Instructor's Solution Manual and case studies from a variety of journals Case studies on the 9/11 attack and Hurricane Katrina An adaptive multiplayer Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) game added to Chapter Three This is an indispensable resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in such diverse areas as homeland and cyber security, healthcare, the environment, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more. It is also a valuable textbook for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses with a focus on our uncertain world.

Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030904894X
Total Pages : 668 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment by : National Research Council

Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.

Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk Analysis

Author : Ray Waller
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475718187
Total Pages : 561 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)

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Book Synopsis Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk Analysis by : Ray Waller

Download or read book Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk Analysis written by Ray Waller and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-21 with total page 561 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years public attention has focused on an array of low-probability/high-consequence (LC/HC) events that pose a signif icant threat to human health, safety, and the environment. At the same time, public and private sector responsibilities for the assessment and management of such events have grown because of a perceived need to anticipate, prevent, or reduce the risks. In attempting to meet these responsibilities, legislative, judicial, regulatory, and private sector institutions have had to deal with the extraordinarily complex problem of assessing and balancing LP/ HC risks against the costs and ben if its of risk reduction. The need to help society cope with LP/HC events such as nuclear power plant accidents, toxic spills, chemical plant explosions, and transportation accidents has given rise to the development of a new intellectual endeavor: LP/HC risk analysis. The scope and complexity of these analyses require a high degree of cooperative effort on the part of specialists from many f~elds. Analyzing technical, social, and value issues requires the efforts of physicists, biologists, geneticists, statisticians, chemists, engineers, political scientists, sociologists, decision analysts, management scientists, economists, psychologists, ethicists, lawyers, and policy analysts. Included in this volume are papers by authors in each of these disciplines. The papers share in common a focus on one or more of the following questions that are generic to the analysis of LP/HC risks.

Project Risk Quantification

Author : John K. Hollmann
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781941075029
Total Pages : 416 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (75 download)

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Book Synopsis Project Risk Quantification by : John K. Hollmann

Download or read book Project Risk Quantification written by John K. Hollmann and published by . This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project Risk Quantification presents the most practical, realistic, and integrated approach to project cost and schedule Risk Quantification that is available today. It offers proven, empirically-valid methods and tools applicable to projects of all types and at all decision gates. The text is written for both the manager and the risk analysis practitioner. It will bring reliable accuracy and contingency determination to your capital project organization.