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Analysis Of Cost Growth And Its Caused In Major Weapon System Acquisitions
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Book Synopsis Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth by : Joseph George Bolten
Download or read book Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth written by Joseph George Bolten and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous studies have shown that the Department of Defense (DoD) and the military departments have historically underestimated the cost of new weapon systems. Quantifying cost growth is important, but the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To address that issue, this analysis uses data from Selected Acquisition Reports to examine 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs similar to the type and complexity of those typically managed by the Air Force. The programs are first examined as a complete set, then Air Force and non-Air Force programs are analyzed separately to determine whether the causes of cost growth in the two groups differ. Four major sources of cost growth were identified: (1) errors in estimation and scheduling, (2) decisions made by the government, (3) financial matters, and (4) miscellaneous sources. Total (development plus procurement) cost growth, when measured as simple averages among the program set, is dominated by decisions, which account for more than two-thirds of the growth. Most decisions-related cost growth involves quantity changes (22 percent), requirements growth (13 percent), and schedule changes (9 percent). Cost estimation (10 percent) is the only large contributor in the errors category. Less than 4 percent of the overall cost growth is due to financial and miscellaneous causes. Because decisions involving changes in requirements, quantities, and production schedules dominate cost growth, program managers, service leadership, and Congress should look for ways to reduce changes in these areas.
Book Synopsis Analysis of Cost Growth and Its Caused in Major Weapon System Acquisitions by : Donald Olson Dellis
Download or read book Analysis of Cost Growth and Its Caused in Major Weapon System Acquisitions written by Donald Olson Dellis and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth. Analysis of 35 Major Defense Acquisition Programs by :
Download or read book Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth. Analysis of 35 Major Defense Acquisition Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous RAND Project AIR FORCE work has concluded that the Department of Defense (DoD) and the military departments historically have underestimated the cost of new weapon systems. Analysis of the data in Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) for a sample of 68 completed programs showed that the average total cost growth (after adjusting for procurement-quantity changes) was 46 percent over the baseline estimate made at Milestone B (MS B) and 16 percent over the baseline estimate made at MS C. The cost growth typically continued for about 75 percent of the time between the initiation of major development and the expending of 90 percent of program funding. Most of the cost growth occurred early in the acquisition phase, and the magnitude of development cost growth at completion for programs initiated in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s remained relatively steady. Although quantifying cost growth is important, the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To answer that question, this analysis examines 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs) from the database of SARs that document the development and procurement of a variety of systems, including aircraft, missiles, electronics systems, launch vehicles, munitions, vehicles, and satellites. The programs were similar in type and complexity to those conducted by the Air Force. We analyzed a relatively small number of programs because of the labor-intensive nature of the work. We first examined the programs as a complete set and then analyzed Air Force and non Air Force programs separately to determine whether the causes of cost growth in the two groups differed.
Book Synopsis Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? by : Obaid Younossi
Download or read book Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? written by Obaid Younossi and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in the cost growth of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs. Cost growth is the ratio of the cost estimate reported in a program's final Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) and the cost-estimate baseline reported in a prior SAR issued at a particular milestone. Drawing on prior RAND research, new analyses of completed and ongoing weapon system programs, and data drawn from SARs, this study addresses the following questions: What is the cost growth of DoD weapon systems? What has been the trend of cost growth over the past three decades? To address the magnitude of cost growth, it examines cost growth in completed programs; to evaluate the cost growth trend over time, it provides additional analysis of a selection of ongoing programs. This sample of ongoing programs permits a look at growth trends in the more recent past. Changes in the mix of system types over time and dollar-weighted analysis were also considered because earlier studies have suggested that cost growth varies by program type and the cost of the program. The findings suggest that development cost growth over the past three decades has remained high and without any significant improvement.
Book Synopsis Application of Design-to-cost Concept to Major Weapon System Acquisitions by : United States. General Accounting Office
Download or read book Application of Design-to-cost Concept to Major Weapon System Acquisitions written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Weapons Cost by : United States. General Accounting Office
Download or read book Weapons Cost written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Cost Growth in Weapon Systems by : Neil M. Singer
Download or read book Cost Growth in Weapon Systems written by Neil M. Singer and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Cost Growth in Major Weapon Systems [in The] Department of Defense by : United States. General Accounting Office
Download or read book Cost Growth in Major Weapon Systems [in The] Department of Defense written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs by : Mark V. Arena
Download or read book Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs written by Mark V. Arena and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The purpose of the project is to improve the tools used to estimate the costs of future weapon systems. It focuses on how recent technical, management, and government policy changes affect cost. This report focuses on the accuracy of cost estimates. For our analysis, we used a very specific sample of Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data, namely only programs that are complete or are nearly so. The analysis indicates a systematic bias toward underestimating the costs and substantial uncertainty in estimating the final cost of a weapon system. In contrast to the previous literature, the cost growth was higher than previously observed. We also found few correlations with cost growth, but observed that programs with longer duration had greater cost growth and electronics programs tended to have lower cost growth. Although there were some differences in the mean cost growth factors among the military departments, the differences were not statistically significant. While newer programs appear to have lower cost growth, this trend appears to be due to factors other than acquisition policies.
Book Synopsis An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth by :
Download or read book An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth in weapon system development, one result of the inherent risk of developing advanced systems, has been a prevalent problem for many years. A systematic bias in cost estimates can undermine the basis of resource allocation decisions, an important problem in a tight budget environment. Currently DoD is in this situation. This exploratory research attempts to gain new insight into this old acquisition issue. In particular, our objectives were to quantify the magnitude of cost growth in weapon systems, and identify factors affecting cost growth. A better understanding of the scope of the cost growth problem would provide decisionmakers with an improved basis for mitigating cost growth. Insight into the drivers of cost growth might suggest policy alternatives appropriate to the goal of mitigating cost growth. This research uses a database composed of 197 major weapon systems reporting through the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) process as of December 1990 to address these issues. While we have quantified the magnitude of weapon system cost growth along a number of dimensions, we could not definitively account for the observed cost growth patterns. Thus, no silver bullet policy option is available for mitigating cost growth.
Book Synopsis Defense Acquisitions by : Michael J. Sullivan
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions written by Michael J. Sullivan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2008-10 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The DoD expects the cost to develop and procure the major weapon systems in its portfolio to total $1.6 trill. With increased competition for funding within DoD and across the fed. gov¿t., effectively managing these acquisitions is critical. Yet DoD programs often experience poor outcomes -- like increased costs and delayed fielding of needed capabilities. In 2006, a report was issued on DoD¿s processes for identifying needs and allocating resources for its weapon system programs. In 2007, it was reported that DoD consistently commits to more programs than it can support. This report assesses DoD¿s funding approach, identifies factors that influence the effectiveness of this approach, and identifies practices that could help improve DoD¿s approach.
Book Synopsis Life Cycle Cost Estimating--its Status and Potential Use in Major Weapon System Acquisitions, Department of Defense by : United States. General Accounting Office
Download or read book Life Cycle Cost Estimating--its Status and Potential Use in Major Weapon System Acquisitions, Department of Defense written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Defense Acquisitions by : Michael J. Sullivan
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions written by Michael J. Sullivan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-09 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For several decades, Congress and the DoD have explored ways to improve the acquisition of major weapon systems, yet program outcomes and their underlying causes have proven resistant to change. Last year, the cumulative cost growth in DoD's portfolio of major programs was $296 billion. The opportunity to achieve meaningful improvements may now be at hand with the recent intro. of major reforms to the acquisition process. This report focuses on: (1) identifying weapon programs that are achieving good outcomes; (2) the factors that enable some programs to succeed; and (3) lessons to be learned from these programs to guide implementation of recent reforms. This report conducted case study reviews of five programs. Charts and tables.
Book Synopsis Pitfalls in Calculating Cost Growth from Selected Acquisition Reports by : Paul G. Hough
Download or read book Pitfalls in Calculating Cost Growth from Selected Acquisition Reports written by Paul G. Hough and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth is a highly visible phenomenon in the procurement of major weapon systems. In general, cost growth is the ratio of a weapon system's current estimate of cost to that of some earlier estimate. Thus, even given the same current estimate, different measures of cost growth are possible, depending on which prior estimate is selected as the baseline. Most studies of cost growth, however, select the cost estimate made at the time of program entry into full-scale development (the development estimate) as the baseline. Both the current estimate and the development estimate are normally taken from the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR), a legally mandated summary report on the status of major acquisition programs. This Note identifies and explains the type of cost data found in the SAR and reviews the history of the SAR with respect to cost reporting. In spite of changes that have improved the quality and comprehensiveness of the data in the SAR, it still presents difficulties for measuring cost growth. Among the most notable problems are failure of some programs to use a consistent baseline cost estimate, exclusion of some significant elements of cost, exclusion of certain classes of major programs, and constantly changing preparation guidelines. Nevertheless, the author concludes that SAR data are suitable for identifying broad-based trends and temporal patterns across a range of programs.
Book Synopsis Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs by :
Download or read book Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The report complements another document from this project, "Impossible Certainty: Cost Risk Analysis for Air Force Systems," and includes a literature review of cost growth studies and a more extensive analysis of the historical cost growth in acquisition programs than appears in the companion report. Overall, most of the studies reviewed reported that actual costs were greater than estimates of baseline costs. The most common metric used to measure cost growth is the cost growth factor (CGF), which is defined as the ratio of the actual cost to the estimated costs. A CGF of less than 1.0 indicates that the estimate was higher than the actual cost -- an underrun. When the CGF exceeds 1.0, the actual costs were higher than the estimate -- an overrun. Studies of weapon system cost growth have mainly relied on data from Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs). These reports are prepared annually by all major defense acquisition program (MDAP) offices within the military services to provide the U.S. Congress with cost, schedule, and performance status. The comparison baseline (estimate) typically corresponds to a major acquisition decision milestone. Prior studies have reported Milestone (MS) II CGFs for development costs ranging from 1.16 to 2.26; estimates of procurement CGFs ranging from 1.16 to 1.65; and total program CGFs ranging from 1.20 to 1.54. Regarding the differences among cost growth due to service, weapon, and time period, prior studies tended to find the following: Army weapon systems had higher cost growth than did weapon systems for the Air Force or Navy; cost growth differs by equipment type; and cost growth has declined from the 1960s and 1970s, after it was recognized as an important problem.
Author :United States. Congress. House. Committee on Armed Services. Special Panel on Defense Procurement Procedures Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :70 pages Book Rating :4.F/5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Weapons Acquisition Policy and Procedures by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Armed Services. Special Panel on Defense Procurement Procedures
Download or read book Weapons Acquisition Policy and Procedures written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Armed Services. Special Panel on Defense Procurement Procedures and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Defense Acquisitions: DoD Must Balance Its Needs with Available Resources and Follow an Incremental Approach to Acquiring Weapon Systems by : Michael J. Sullivan
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions: DoD Must Balance Its Needs with Available Resources and Follow an Incremental Approach to Acquiring Weapon Systems written by Michael J. Sullivan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2009-08 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A broad consensus exists that weapon system problems are serious, but efforts at reform have had limited impact. Last year, it was reported that DoD's portfolio of weapon programs experienced cost growth of $295 billion from first estimates, were delayed by an average of 21 months, and delivered fewer quantities and capabilities to the war-fighter than originally planned. This testimony describes the systemic problems that contribute to the cost, schedule, and performance problems in weapon system programs, recent actions that DoD has taken to address these problems, proposed reform legislation that has recently been introduced, and additional steps needed to improve future performance of acquisition programs. Charts and tables.
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