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Analysis And Decision Making In Uncertain Systems
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Book Synopsis Analysis and Decision Making in Uncertain Systems by : Zdzislaw Bubnicki
Download or read book Analysis and Decision Making in Uncertain Systems written by Zdzislaw Bubnicki and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unified and systematic description of analysis and decision problems within a wide class of uncertain systems, described by traditional mathematical methods and by relational knowledge representations. Prof. Bubnicki takes a unique approach to stability and stabilization of uncertain systems.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Book Synopsis Principles of Risk Analysis by : Charles Yoe
Download or read book Principles of Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis i
Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : David E. Bell
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by David E. Bell and published by Thomson South-Western. This book was released on 1995 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These authors draw on nearly 50 years of combined teaching and consulting experience to give readers a straightforward yet systematic approach for making estimates about the likelihood and consequences of future events -- and then using those assessments to arrive at sound decisions. The book's real-world cases, supplemented with expository text and spreadsheets, help readers master such techniques as decision trees and simulation, such concepts as probability, the value of information, and strategic gaming; and such applications as inventory stocking problems, bidding situations, and negotiating.
Book Synopsis Methods for Decision Making in an Uncertain Environment by : Jaime Gil Aluja
Download or read book Methods for Decision Making in an Uncertain Environment written by Jaime Gil Aluja and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2012 with total page 471 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the XVII SIGEF Congress. It presents fuzzy logic, neural networks and other intelligent techniques applied to economic and business problems. This book is very useful for researchers and graduate students aiming to introduce themselves to the field of quantitative techniques for overcoming uncertain environments. The contributors are experienced scholars of different countries who offer real world applications of these mathematical techniques.
Book Synopsis What Every Engineer Should Know About Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : John X. Wang
Download or read book What Every Engineer Should Know About Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by John X. Wang and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2002-07-01 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covering the prediction of outcomes for engineering decisions through regression analysis, this succinct and practical reference presents statistical reasoning and interpretational techniques to aid in the decision making process when faced with engineering problems. The author emphasizes the use of spreadsheet simulations and decision trees as important tools in the practical application of decision making analyses and models to improve real-world engineering operations. He offers insight into the realities of high-stakes engineering decision making in the investigative and corporate sectors by optimizing engineering decision variables to maximize payoff.
Book Synopsis Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management by : Patrick J. Driscoll
Download or read book Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management written by Patrick J. Driscoll and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2022-10-25 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: DECISION MAKING IN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT A thoroughly updated overview of systems engineering management and decision making In the newly revised third edition of Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management, the authors deliver a comprehensive and authoritative overview of the systems decision process, systems thinking, and qualitative and quantitative multi-criteria value modeling directly supporting decision making throughout the system lifecycle. This book offers readers major new updates that cover recently developed system modeling and analysis techniques and quantitative and qualitative approaches in the field, including effective techniques for addressing uncertainty. In addition to Excel, six new open-source software applications have been added to illustrate key topics, including SIPmath Modeler Tools, Cambridge Advanced Modeller, SystemiTool2.0, and Gephi 0.9.2. The authors have reshaped the book’s organization and presentation to better support educators engaged in remote learning. New appendices have been added to present extensions for a new realization analysis technique and getting started steps for each of the major software applications. Updated illustrative examples support modern system decision making skills and highlight applications in hardware, organizations, policy, logistic supply chains, and architecture. Readers will also find: Thorough introductions to working with systems, the systems engineering perspective, and systems thinking In-depth presentations of applied systems thinking, including holism, element dependencies, expansive and contractive thinking, and concepts of structure, classification, and boundaries Comprehensive explorations of system representations leading to analysis In-depth discussions of supporting system decisions, including the system decision process (SDP), tradespace methods, multi-criteria value modeling, working with stakeholders, and the system environment Perfect for undergraduate and graduate students studying systems engineering and systems engineering management, Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management will also earn a place in the libraries of practicing system engineers and researchers with an interest in the topic.
Book Synopsis Multi-objective Decision Analysis by : Clinton W. Brownley
Download or read book Multi-objective Decision Analysis written by Clinton W. Brownley and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2013-03-28 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether managing strategy, operations or products, knowing how to make the best decision in a complex, uncertain business environment is difficult. You might be faced with multiple, competing objectives, which means making trade-offs. To complicate matters, any uncertainty makes it hard to explicitly understand how different objectives will impact potential outcomes. This book will help you face these problems. It provides a decision analysis framework implemented as a simple spreadsheet tool. This multi-objective decision analysis framework helps you to measure trade-offs among objectives and incorporate uncertainties and risk preferences. With this book, you will be able to identify what information is needed to make a decision, define how that information should be combined, and, finally, provide quantifiable evidence to clearly communicate and justify the decision. The process involves minimal overhead and is perfect for busy professionals who need a simple, structured process for making, tracking, and communicating decisions. This process makes decision making more efficient by focusing only on information and factors that are well-defined, measureable, and relevant to the decision at hand. The framework requires clear characterization of a decision, ensuring that it can be traced and is consistent with the intended objectives and organizational values. Using this structured decision-making framework, anyone can consistently make better decisions to gain competitive and strategic advantage.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Charles A. Holloway
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Charles A. Holloway and published by Prentice Hall. This book was released on 1979 with total page 550 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction and basic concepts; Models and probability; Choices and preferences; Preference assessment procedures; Behavioral assumptions and limitations of decision analysis; Risk sharing and incentives; Choices with multiple attributes.
Book Synopsis Decision-Making Under Uncertainty by : George K. Chacko
Download or read book Decision-Making Under Uncertainty written by George K. Chacko and published by Praeger. This book was released on 1991 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In real-life decision-making situations it is necessary to make decisions with incomplete information, for oftentimes uncertain results. In Decision-Making Under Uncertainty, Dr. Chacko applies his years of statistical research and experience to the analysis of twenty-four real-life decision-making situations, both those with few data points (eg: Cuban Missile Crisis), and many data points (eg: aspirin for heart attack prevention). These situations encompass decision-making in a variety of business, social and political, physical and biological, and military environments. Though different, all of these have one characteristic in common: their outcomes are uncertain/unkown, and unknowable. Chacko Demonstrates how the decision-maker can reduce uncertainty by choosing probable outcomes using the statistical methods he introduces. This detailed volume develops standard statistical concepts (t, x2, normal distribution, ANOVA), and the less familiar concepts (logical probability, subjective probability, Bayesian Inference, Penalty for Non-Fulfillment, Bluff-Threats Matrix, etc.). Chacko also offers a thorough discussion of the underlying theoretical principles. The end of each chapter contains a set of questions, three quarters of which focus on concepts, formulation, conclusion, resource commitments, and caveats; only one quarter with computations. Ideal for the practitioner, the work is also designed to serve as the primary text for graduate or advanced undergraduate courses in statistics and decision science.
Book Synopsis Uncertain Multi-Attribute Decision Making by : Zeshui Xu
Download or read book Uncertain Multi-Attribute Decision Making written by Zeshui Xu and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-02-05 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces methods for uncertain multi-attribute decision making including uncertain multi-attribute group decision making and their applications to supply chain management, investment decision making, personnel assessment, redesigning products, maintenance services, military system efficiency evaluation. Multi-attribute decision making, also known as multi-objective decision making with finite alternatives, is an important component of modern decision science. The theory and methods of multi-attribute decision making have been extensively applied in engineering, economics, management and military contexts, such as venture capital project evaluation, facility location, bidding, development ranking of industrial sectors and so on. Over the last few decades, great attention has been paid to research on multi-attribute decision making in uncertain settings, due to the increasing complexity and uncertainty of supposedly objective aspects and the fuzziness of human thought. This book can be used as a reference guide for researchers and practitioners working in e.g. the fields of operations research, information science, management science and engineering. It can also be used as a textbook for postgraduate and senior undergraduate students.
Book Synopsis Decisions Under Uncertainty by : Ian Jordaan
Download or read book Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Ian Jordaan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-04-07 with total page 696 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Publisher Description
Book Synopsis Uncertain Logics, Variables and Systems by : Z. Bubnicki
Download or read book Uncertain Logics, Variables and Systems written by Z. Bubnicki and published by Springer. This book was released on 2003-07-01 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ideas of uncertain variables based on uncertain logics have been introduced and developed for a wide class of uncertain systems. The purpose of this mo- graph is to present basic concepts, definitions and results concerning the uncertain variables and their applications to analysis and decision problems in uncertain systems described by traditional mathematical models and by knowledge rep- sentations. I hope that the book can be useful for graduate students, researchers and all readers working in the field of control and information science. Especially for those interested in the problems of uncertain decision support systems and unc- tain control systems. I wish to express my gratitude to my co-workers from the Institute of Control and Systems Engineering of Wroclaw University of Technology, who assisted in the preparation of the manuscript. My special thanks go to Dr L.Siwek for the valuable remarks and for his work concerning the formatting of the text.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets by : Antonio J. Conejo
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets written by Antonio J. Conejo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-09-08 with total page 549 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets provides models and procedures to be used by electricity market agents to make informed decisions under uncertainty. These procedures rely on well established stochastic programming models, which make them efficient and robust. Particularly, these techniques allow electricity producers to derive offering strategies for the pool and contracting decisions in the futures market. Retailers use these techniques to derive selling prices to clients and energy procurement strategies through the pool, the futures market and bilateral contracting. Using the proposed models, consumers can derive the best energy procurement strategies using the available trading floors. The market operator can use the techniques proposed in this book to clear simultaneously energy and reserve markets promoting efficiency and equity. The techniques described in this book are of interest for professionals working on energy markets, and for graduate students in power engineering, applied mathematics, applied economics, and operations research.
Book Synopsis Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty by : Institute of Medicine
Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.
Book Synopsis Affective Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Donald J. Brown
Download or read book Affective Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Donald J. Brown and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-12-18 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an exploration of the ubiquity of ambiguity in decision-making under uncertainty. It presents various essays on behavioral economics and behavioral finance that draw on the theory of Black Swans (Taleb 2010), which argues for a distinction between unprecedented events in our past and unpredictable events in our future. The defining property of Black Swan random events is that they are unpredictable, i.e., highly unlikely random events. In this text, Mandelbrot’s (1972) operational definition of risky random unpredictable events is extended to Black Swan assets – assets for which the cumulative probability distribution or conditional probability distribution of random future asset returns is a power distribution. Ambiguous assets are assets for which the uncertainties of future returns are not risks. Consequently, there are two disjoint classes of Black Swan assets: Risky Black Swan assets and Ambiguous Black Swan assets, a new class of ambiguous assets with unpredictable random future outcomes. The text is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on affective moods, introduces affective utility functions and discusses the ambiguity of Black Swans. The second part, which shifts the spotlight to affective equilibrium in asset markets, features chapters on affective portfolio analysis and Walrasian and Gorman Polar Form Equilibrium Inequalities. In order to gain the most from the book, readers should have completed the standard introductory graduate courses on microeconomics, behavioral finance, and convex optimization. The book is intended for advanced undergraduates, graduate students and post docs specializing in economic theory, experimental economics, finance, mathematics, computer science or data analysis.
