Analysis And Approximation Of Rare Events

Download Analysis And Approximation Of Rare Events full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Analysis And Approximation Of Rare Events ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!

Analysis and Approximation of Rare Events

Author : Amarjit Budhiraja
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1493995790
Total Pages : 574 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (939 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Analysis and Approximation of Rare Events by : Amarjit Budhiraja

Download or read book Analysis and Approximation of Rare Events written by Amarjit Budhiraja and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-08-10 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents broadly applicable methods for the large deviation and moderate deviation analysis of discrete and continuous time stochastic systems. A feature of the book is the systematic use of variational representations for quantities of interest such as normalized logarithms of probabilities and expected values. By characterizing a large deviation principle in terms of Laplace asymptotics, one converts the proof of large deviation limits into the convergence of variational representations. These features are illustrated though their application to a broad range of discrete and continuous time models, including stochastic partial differential equations, processes with discontinuous statistics, occupancy models, and many others. The tools used in the large deviation analysis also turn out to be useful in understanding Monte Carlo schemes for the numerical approximation of the same probabilities and expected values. This connection is illustrated through the design and analysis of importance sampling and splitting schemes for rare event estimation. The book assumes a solid background in weak convergence of probability measures and stochastic analysis, and is suitable for advanced graduate students, postdocs and researchers.

Rare Event Simulation using Monte Carlo Methods

Author : Gerardo Rubino
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780470745410
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (454 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Rare Event Simulation using Monte Carlo Methods by : Gerardo Rubino

Download or read book Rare Event Simulation using Monte Carlo Methods written by Gerardo Rubino and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-03-18 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a probabilistic model, a rare event is an event with a very small probability of occurrence. The forecasting of rare events is a formidable task but is important in many areas. For instance a catastrophic failure in a transport system or in a nuclear power plant, the failure of an information processing system in a bank, or in the communication network of a group of banks, leading to financial losses. Being able to evaluate the probability of rare events is therefore a critical issue. Monte Carlo Methods, the simulation of corresponding models, are used to analyze rare events. This book sets out to present the mathematical tools available for the efficient simulation of rare events. Importance sampling and splitting are presented along with an exposition of how to apply these tools to a variety of fields ranging from performance and dependability evaluation of complex systems, typically in computer science or in telecommunications, to chemical reaction analysis in biology or particle transport in physics. Graduate students, researchers and practitioners who wish to learn and apply rare event simulation techniques will find this book beneficial.

Analysis of Rare Events

Author : Heinz Leitgöb
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781526421036
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (21 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Analysis of Rare Events by : Heinz Leitgöb

Download or read book Analysis of Rare Events written by Heinz Leitgöb and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rare events represent a great analytical challenge. The maximum likelihood-based (ML) binary logit model as the workhorse model in the social sciences can generate heavily biased parameter estimates if events are rare. In detail, the finite sample bias in ML estimates may be substantially larger than that observed in cases with balanced data of the same sample size. Furthermore, the ML estimator is prone to overfitting rare event data even in low-dimensional models and not identified in cases of perfectly separated data. Starting with a brief introduction to the standard binary logit as a reference model, this entry discusses several design issues (e.g., selection on the dependent variable) and analytical approaches (e.g., first-order bias correction, exact conditional inference, penalized ML estimation, specification of cloglog models) to overcome these threats to valid inferences. Finally, the potential of Bayesian rare event modeling, which addresses some limitations of the frequentist probability perspective, is briefly introduced.

Reaction Rate Theory and Rare Events

Author : Baron Peters
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444594701
Total Pages : 636 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (445 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Reaction Rate Theory and Rare Events by : Baron Peters

Download or read book Reaction Rate Theory and Rare Events written by Baron Peters and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2017-03-22 with total page 636 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reaction Rate Theory and Rare Events bridges the historical gap between these subjects because the increasingly multidisciplinary nature of scientific research often requires an understanding of both reaction rate theory and the theory of other rare events. The book discusses collision theory, transition state theory, RRKM theory, catalysis, diffusion limited kinetics, mean first passage times, Kramers theory, Grote-Hynes theory, transition path theory, non-adiabatic reactions, electron transfer, and topics from reaction network analysis. It is an essential reference for students, professors and scientists who use reaction rate theory or the theory of rare events. In addition, the book discusses transition state search algorithms, tunneling corrections, transmission coefficients, microkinetic models, kinetic Monte Carlo, transition path sampling, and importance sampling methods. The unified treatment in this book explains why chemical reactions and other rare events, while having many common theoretical foundations, often require very different computational modeling strategies. Offers an integrated approach to all simulation theories and reaction network analysis, a unique approach not found elsewhere Gives algorithms in pseudocode for using molecular simulation and computational chemistry methods in studies of rare events Uses graphics and explicit examples to explain concepts Includes problem sets developed and tested in a course range from pen-and-paper theoretical problems, to computational exercises

A Weak Convergence Approach to the Theory of Large Deviations

Author : Paul Dupuis
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118165896
Total Pages : 506 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (181 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis A Weak Convergence Approach to the Theory of Large Deviations by : Paul Dupuis

Download or read book A Weak Convergence Approach to the Theory of Large Deviations written by Paul Dupuis and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-09 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applies the well-developed tools of the theory of weak convergenceof probability measures to large deviation analysis--a consistentnew approach The theory of large deviations, one of the most dynamic topics inprobability today, studies rare events in stochastic systems. Thenonlinear nature of the theory contributes both to its richness anddifficulty. This innovative text demonstrates how to employ thewell-established linear techniques of weak convergence theory toprove large deviation results. Beginning with a step-by-stepdevelopment of the approach, the book skillfully guides readersthrough models of increasing complexity covering a wide variety ofrandom variable-level and process-level problems. Representationformulas for large deviation-type expectations are a key tool andare developed systematically for discrete-time problems. Accessible to anyone who has a knowledge of measure theory andmeasure-theoretic probability, A Weak Convergence Approach to theTheory of Large Deviations is important reading for both studentsand researchers.

Laws of Small Numbers: Extremes and Rare Events

Author : Michael Falk
Publisher : Birkhäuser
ISBN 13 : 3034877919
Total Pages : 381 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (348 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Laws of Small Numbers: Extremes and Rare Events by : Michael Falk

Download or read book Laws of Small Numbers: Extremes and Rare Events written by Michael Falk and published by Birkhäuser. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the publication of the first edition of this seminar book, the theory and applications of extremes and rare events have seen increasing interest. Laws of Small Numbers gives a mathematically oriented development of the theory of rare events underlying various applications. The new edition incorporates numerous new results on about 130 additional pages. Part II, added in the second edition, discusses recent developments in multivariate extreme value theory.

Introduction to Rare Event Simulation

Author : James Bucklew
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475740786
Total Pages : 262 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Introduction to Rare Event Simulation by : James Bucklew

Download or read book Introduction to Rare Event Simulation written by James Bucklew and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a unified theory of rare event simulation and the variance reduction technique known as importance sampling from the point of view of the probabilistic theory of large deviations. It allows us to view a vast assortment of simulation problems from a unified single perspective.

SAGE Research Methods Foundations

Author : Paul Anthony Atkinson
Publisher : SAGE Publications Limited
ISBN 13 : 9781473965003
Total Pages : 6000 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (65 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis SAGE Research Methods Foundations by : Paul Anthony Atkinson

Download or read book SAGE Research Methods Foundations written by Paul Anthony Atkinson and published by SAGE Publications Limited. This book was released on 2021-05-05 with total page 6000 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Geometric Sums: Bounds for Rare Events with Applications

Author : Vladimir V. Kalashnikov
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9789401716949
Total Pages : 270 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (169 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Geometric Sums: Bounds for Rare Events with Applications by : Vladimir V. Kalashnikov

Download or read book Geometric Sums: Bounds for Rare Events with Applications written by Vladimir V. Kalashnikov and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-03-14 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reviews problems associated with rare events arising in a wide range of circumstances, treating such topics as how to evaluate the probability an insurance company will be bankrupted, the lifetime of a redundant system, and the waiting time in a queue. Well-grounded, unique mathematical evaluation methods of basic probability characteristics concerned with rare events are presented, which can be employed in real applications, as the volume also contains relevant numerical and Monte Carlo methods. The various examples, tables, figures and algorithms will also be appreciated. Audience: This work will be useful to graduate students, researchers and specialists interested in applied probability, simulation and operations research.

Analysis of Rare Events in Continuous Time Markov Chains Via Time Reversal and Fluid Approximation

Author : International Business Machines Corporation. Research Division
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 19 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (123 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Analysis of Rare Events in Continuous Time Markov Chains Via Time Reversal and Fluid Approximation by : International Business Machines Corporation. Research Division

Download or read book Analysis of Rare Events in Continuous Time Markov Chains Via Time Reversal and Fluid Approximation written by International Business Machines Corporation. Research Division and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems

Author : Jerome Morio
Publisher : Woodhead Publishing
ISBN 13 : 0081001118
Total Pages : 217 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (81 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems by : Jerome Morio

Download or read book Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems written by Jerome Morio and published by Woodhead Publishing. This book was released on 2015-11-16 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rare event probability (10-4 and less) estimation has become a large area of research in the reliability engineering and system safety domains. A significant number of methods have been proposed to reduce the computation burden for the estimation of rare events from advanced sampling approaches to extreme value theory. However, it is often difficult in practice to determine which algorithm is the most adapted to a given problem.Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems: A Practical Approach provides a broad up-to-date view of the current available techniques to estimate rare event probabilities described with a unified notation, a mathematical pseudocode to ease their potential implementation and finally a large spectrum of simulation results on academic and realistic use cases. Provides a broad overview of the practical approach of rare event methods. Includes algorithms that are applied to aerospace benchmark test cases Offers insight into practical tuning issues

Extreme Value Methods with Applications to Finance

Author : Serguei Y. Novak
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1439835748
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (398 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Extreme Value Methods with Applications to Finance by : Serguei Y. Novak

Download or read book Extreme Value Methods with Applications to Finance written by Serguei Y. Novak and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-12-20 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme value theory (EVT) deals with extreme (rare) events, which are sometimes reported as outliers. Certain textbooks encourage readers to remove outliers—in other words, to correct reality if it does not fit the model. Recognizing that any model is only an approximation of reality, statisticians are eager to extract information about unknown distribution making as few assumptions as possible. Extreme Value Methods with Applications to Finance concentrates on modern topics in EVT, such as processes of exceedances, compound Poisson approximation, Poisson cluster approximation, and nonparametric estimation methods. These topics have not been fully focused on in other books on extremes. In addition, the book covers: Extremes in samples of random size Methods of estimating extreme quantiles and tail probabilities Self-normalized sums of random variables Measures of market risk Along with examples from finance and insurance to illustrate the methods, Extreme Value Methods with Applications to Finance includes over 200 exercises, making it useful as a reference book, self-study tool, or comprehensive course text. A systematic background to a rapidly growing branch of modern Probability and Statistics: extreme value theory for stationary sequences of random variables.

Large Deviations For Performance Analysis

Author : Adam Shwartz
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 9780412063114
Total Pages : 576 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (631 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Large Deviations For Performance Analysis by : Adam Shwartz

Download or read book Large Deviations For Performance Analysis written by Adam Shwartz and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1995-09-01 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book consists of two synergistic parts. The first half develops the theory of large deviations from the beginning (iid random variables) through recent results on the theory for processes with boundaries, keeping to a very narrow path: continuous-time, discrete-state processes. By developing only what is needed for the applications, the theory is kept to a manageable level, both in terms of length and in terms of difficulty. Within its scope, the treatment is detailed, comprehensive and self-contained. As the book shows, there are sufficiently many interesting applications of jump Markov processes to warrant a special treatment. The second half is a collection of applications developed at Bell Laboratories. The applications cover large areas of the theory of communication networks: circuit-switched transmission, packet transmission, multiple access channels, and the M/M/1 queue. Aspects of parallel computation are covered as well: basics of job allocation, rollback-based parallel simulation, assorted priority queueing models that might be used in performance models of various computer architectures, and asymptotic coupling of processors. These applications are thoroughly analyzed using the tools developed in the first half of the book. Features: A transient analysis of the M/M/1 queue; a new analysis of an Aloha model using Markov modulated theory; new results for Erlang's model; new results for the AMS model; analysis of "serve the longer queue", "join the shorter queue" and other simple priority queues; and a simple analysis of the Flatto-Hahn-Wright model of processor-sharing.

Geometric Sums

Author : Vladimir Kalashnikov
Publisher : Chapman & Hall
ISBN 13 : 9780412062810
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (628 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Geometric Sums by : Vladimir Kalashnikov

Download or read book Geometric Sums written by Vladimir Kalashnikov and published by Chapman & Hall. This book was released on 1995 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reviews problems associated with rare events arising in a wide range of circumstances, treating such topics as how to evaluate the probability an insurance company will be bankrupted, the lifetime of a redundant system, and the waiting time in a queue.Well-grounded, unique mathematical evaluation methods of basic probability characteristics concerned with rare events are presented, which can be employed in real applications, as the volume also contains relevant numerical and Monte Carlo methods. The various examples, tables, figures and algorithms will also be appreciated. Audience: This work will be useful to graduate students, researchers and specialists interested in applied probability, simulation and operations research.

Risk Assessment and Management in the Context of the Seveso II Directive

Author : Michalis D Christou
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080540619
Total Pages : 560 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (85 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Risk Assessment and Management in the Context of the Seveso II Directive by : Michalis D Christou

Download or read book Risk Assessment and Management in the Context of the Seveso II Directive written by Michalis D Christou and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1998-02-18 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The assessment and management of risk to society from the operation of chemical process plants and other industrial activities in which dangerous substances are produced, used, handled or stored will remain a topic of great importance in the next decade. In order to evaluate this specific risk on a qualitative and/or quantitative basis, the concepts of risk analyses are linked together in this book. The "performance based" and "goal oriented" regulatory requirements of the European Council's new "Seveso II Directive" for the identification of large scale industrial hazards, prevention of sudden and uncontrolled releases of dangerous substances from industrial plants and mitigation of serious consequences of industrial accidents to people and the environment are examined. The fact that risk assessment and management are key elements to such forms of regulation is also demonstrated. While the "Seveso II Directive" defines "what" has to be achieved on the control of major hazards involving dangerous substances within the European Union, the methods of risk assessment and management give guidance on "how" to achieve it. The text provides a practical guide for decision-makers in regulatory bodies and companies with a non-technical background. Scientists and engineers who are not yet familiar with the concepts of risk assessment and who want a survey of some fundamentals of, and principal results from, risk assessment studies and approaches primarily for applications in the context defined by the "Seveso Directives" will also find this book invaluable.

Advances in Queueing Theory, Methods, and Open Problems

Author : Jewgeni H. Dshalalow
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000949931
Total Pages : 530 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (9 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Advances in Queueing Theory, Methods, and Open Problems by : Jewgeni H. Dshalalow

Download or read book Advances in Queueing Theory, Methods, and Open Problems written by Jewgeni H. Dshalalow and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-07-21 with total page 530 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The progress of science and technology has placed Queueing Theory among the most popular disciplines in applied mathematics, operations research, and engineering. Although queueing has been on the scientific market since the beginning of this century, it is still rapidly expanding by capturing new areas in technology. Advances in Queueing provides a comprehensive overview of problems in this enormous area of science and focuses on the most significant methods recently developed. Written by a team of 24 eminent scientists, the book examines stochastic, analytic, and generic methods such as approximations, estimates and bounds, and simulation. The first chapter presents an overview of classical queueing methods from the birth of queues to the seventies. It also contains the most comprehensive bibliography of books on queueing and telecommunications to date. Each of the following chapters surveys recent methods applied to classes of queueing systems and networks followed by a discussion of open problems and future research directions. Advances in Queueing is a practical reference that allows the reader quick access to the latest methods.

Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World

Author : Stein Haugen
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351174649
Total Pages : 4379 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (511 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World by : Stein Haugen

Download or read book Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World written by Stein Haugen and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-06-15 with total page 4379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World collects the papers presented at the 28th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018 in Trondheim, Norway, June 17-21, 2018. The contributions cover a wide range of methodologies and application areas for safety and reliability that contribute to safe societies in a changing world. These methodologies and applications include: - foundations of risk and reliability assessment and management - mathematical methods in reliability and safety - risk assessment - risk management - system reliability - uncertainty analysis - digitalization and big data - prognostics and system health management - occupational safety - accident and incident modeling - maintenance modeling and applications - simulation for safety and reliability analysis - dynamic risk and barrier management - organizational factors and safety culture - human factors and human reliability - resilience engineering - structural reliability - natural hazards - security - economic analysis in risk management Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World will be invaluable to academics and professionals working in a wide range of industrial and governmental sectors: offshore oil and gas, nuclear engineering, aeronautics and aerospace, marine transport and engineering, railways, road transport, automotive engineering, civil engineering, critical infrastructures, electrical and electronic engineering, energy production and distribution, environmental engineering, information technology and telecommunications, insurance and finance, manufacturing, marine transport, mechanical engineering, security and protection, and policy making.