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An Empirical Comparison Of Models For Forecasting Electricity Prices
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Book Synopsis Forecasting Models of Electricity Prices by : Javier Contreras
Download or read book Forecasting Models of Electricity Prices written by Javier Contreras and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2018-04-06 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Forecasting Models of Electricity Prices" that was published in Energies
Book Synopsis Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices by : Rafal Weron
Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices written by Rafal Weron and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-01-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.
Book Synopsis Managing Energy Risk by : Markus Burger
Download or read book Managing Energy Risk written by Markus Burger and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-30 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mathematical techniques for trading and risk management. Managing Energy Risk closes the gap between modern techniques from financial mathematics and the practical implementation for trading and risk management. It takes a multi-commodity approach that covers the mutual influences of the markets for fuels, emission certificates, and power. It includes many practical examples and covers methods from financial mathematics as well as economics and energy-related models.
Book Synopsis Modelling Prices in Competitive Electricity Markets by : Derek W. Bunn
Download or read book Modelling Prices in Competitive Electricity Markets written by Derek W. Bunn and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-04-02 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets.
Book Synopsis Empirical Asset Pricing by : Wayne Ferson
Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Book Synopsis Energy Pricing Models by : Marcel Prokopczuk
Download or read book Energy Pricing Models written by Marcel Prokopczuk and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 2014-12-18 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following the liberalization of global energy markets, the world has witnessed a substantial growth in energy commodity trading. Moreover, prices and volatilities have significantly increased, partly due to geopolitical crises, but mostly resulting from increased participation of financial investors. Such newfound interest in energy markets has spawned greater demand for state-of-the-art models and methods necessary to understand the challenges related to trading and risk management. Energy Pricing Models showcases original cutting-edge research to best illustrate the latest advances and future implications of trading in energy markets. Prokopczuk assembles an all-star team of leading academics and practitioners in order to provide a well-balanced analysis of the topic. This work is required reading for market practitioners wishing to gain greater insight into the field, as well as academics and researchers interested in learning more about the latest developments from an applied perspective.
Book Synopsis Routledge Handbook of Energy Economics by : Uğur Soytaş
Download or read book Routledge Handbook of Energy Economics written by Uğur Soytaş and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-09-23 with total page 641 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Energy consumption and production have major influences on the economy, environment, and society, but in return they are also influenced by how the economy is structured, how the social institutions work, and how the society deals with environmental degradation. The need for integrated assessment of the relationship between energy, economy, environment, and society is clear, and this handbook offers an in-depth review of all four pillars of the energy-economy-environment-society nexus. Bringing together contributions from all over the world, this handbook includes sections devoted to each of the four pillars. Moreover, as the financialization of commodity markets has made risk analysis more complicated and intriguing, the sections also cover energy commodity markets and their links to other financial and non-financial markets. In addition, econometric modeling and the forecasting of energy needs, as well as energy prices and volatilities, are also explored. Each part emphasizes the multidisciplinary nature of the energy economics field and from this perspective, chapters offer a review of models and methods used in the literature. The Routledge Handbook of Energy Economics will be of great interest to all those studying and researching in the area of energy economics. It offers guideline suggestions for policy makers as well as for future research.
Book Synopsis Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing by : Rob Hyndman
Download or read book Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing written by Rob Hyndman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-06-19 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.
Book Synopsis Innovative Mobile and Internet Services in Ubiquitous Computing by : Leonard Barolli
Download or read book Innovative Mobile and Internet Services in Ubiquitous Computing written by Leonard Barolli and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-07 with total page 987 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the latest research findings, methods and development techniques related to Ubiquitous and Pervasive Computing (UPC) as well as challenges and solutions from both theoretical and practical perspectives with an emphasis on innovative, mobile and internet services. With the proliferation of wireless technologies and electronic devices, there is a rapidly growing interest in Ubiquitous and Pervasive Computing (UPC). UPC makes it possible to create a human-oriented computing environment where computer chips are embedded in everyday objects and interact with physical world. It also allows users to be online even while moving around, providing them with almost permanent access to their preferred services. Along with a great potential to revolutionize our lives, UPC also poses new research challenges.
Book Synopsis Market Operations in Electric Power Systems by : Mohammad Shahidehpour
Download or read book Market Operations in Electric Power Systems written by Mohammad Shahidehpour and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-05-28 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An essential overview of post-deregulation market operations inelectrical power systems Until recently the U.S. electricity industry was dominated byvertically integrated utilities. It is now evolving into adistributive and competitive market driven by market forces andincreased competition. With electricity amounting to a $200 billionper year market in the United States, the implications of thisrestructuring will naturally affect the rest of the world. Why is restructuring necessary? What are the components ofrestructuring? How is the new structure different from the oldmonopoly? How are the participants strategizing their options tomaximize their revenues? What are the market risks and how are theyevaluated? How are interchange transactions analyzed and approved?Starting with a background sketch of the industry, this hands-onreference provides insights into the new trends in power systemsoperation and control, and highlights advanced issues in thefield. Written for both technical and nontechnical professionals involvedin power engineering, finance, and marketing, this must-haveresource discusses: * Market structure and operation of electric power systems * Load and price forecasting and arbitrage * Price-based unit commitment and security constrained unitcommitment * Market power analysis and game theory applications * Ancillary services auction market design * Transmission pricing and congestion Using real-world case studies, this timely survey offers engineers,consultants, researchers, financial managers, university professorsand students, and other professionals in the industry acomprehensive review of electricity restructuring and how itsradical effects will shape the market.
Book Synopsis Mining Data for Financial Applications by : Valerio Bitetta
Download or read book Mining Data for Financial Applications written by Valerio Bitetta and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-01-14 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes revised selected papers from the 5th Workshop on Mining Data for Financial Applications, MIDAS 2020, held in conjunction with ECML PKDD 2020, in Ghent, Belgium, in September 2020.* The 8 full and 3 short papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 15 submissions. They deal with challenges, potentialities, and applications of leveraging data-mining tasks regarding problems in the financial domain. *The workshop was held virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic. “Information Extraction from the GDELT Database to Analyse EU Sovereign Bond Markets” and “Exploring the Predictive Power of News and Neural Machine Learning Models for Economic Forecasting” are available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.
Book Synopsis Stochastic Modelling of Electricity and Related Markets by : Fred Espen Benth
Download or read book Stochastic Modelling of Electricity and Related Markets written by Fred Espen Benth and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The markets for electricity, gas and temperature have distinctive features, which provide the focus for countless studies. For instance, electricity and gas prices may soar several magnitudes above their normal levels within a short time due to imbalances in supply and demand, yielding what is known as spikes in the spot prices. The markets are also largely influenced by seasons, since power demand for heating and cooling varies over the year. The incompleteness of the markets, due to nonstorability of electricity and temperature as well as limited storage capacity of gas, makes spot-forward hedging impossible. Moreover, futures contracts are typically settled over a time period rather than at a fixed date. All these aspects of the markets create new challenges when analyzing price dynamics of spot, futures and other derivatives.This book provides a concise and rigorous treatment on the stochastic modeling of energy markets. Ornstein?Uhlenbeck processes are described as the basic modeling tool for spot price dynamics, where innovations are driven by time-inhomogeneous jump processes. Temperature futures are studied based on a continuous higher-order autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics. The theory presented here pays special attention to the seasonality of volatility and the Samuelson effect. Empirical studies using data from electricity, temperature and gas markets are given to link theory to practice.
Book Synopsis Principles of Forecasting by : J.S. Armstrong
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Book Synopsis 13th International Conference on Information Systems and Advanced Technologies “ICISAT 2023” by : Mohamed Ridda Laouar
Download or read book 13th International Conference on Information Systems and Advanced Technologies “ICISAT 2023” written by Mohamed Ridda Laouar and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Cyclostationarity: Theory and Methods - II by : Fakher Chaari
Download or read book Cyclostationarity: Theory and Methods - II written by Fakher Chaari and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-04-15 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reports on the latest advances in the analysis of non-stationary signals, with special emphasis on cyclostationary systems. It includes cutting-edge contributions presented at the 7th Workshop on “Cyclostationary Systems and Their Applications,” which was held in Gródek nad Dunajcem, Poland, in February 2014. The book covers both the theoretical properties of cyclostationary models and processes, including estimation problems for systems exhibiting cyclostationary properties, and several applications of cyclostationary systems, including case studies on gears and bearings, and methods for implementing cyclostationary processes for damage assessment in condition-based maintenance operations. It addresses the needs of students, researchers and professionals in the broad fields of engineering, mathematics and physics, with a special focus on those studying or working with nonstationary and/or cyclostationary processes.
Book Synopsis Computational Science – ICCS 2021 by : Maciej Paszynski
Download or read book Computational Science – ICCS 2021 written by Maciej Paszynski and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-06-10 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The six-volume set LNCS 12742, 12743, 12744, 12745, 12746, and 12747 constitutes the proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Computational Science, ICCS 2021, held in Krakow, Poland, in June 2021.* The total of 260 full papers and 57 short papers presented in this book set were carefully reviewed and selected from 635 submissions. 48 full and 14 short papers were accepted to the main track from 156 submissions; 212 full and 43 short papers were accepted to the workshops/ thematic tracks from 479 submissions. The papers were organized in topical sections named: Part I: ICCS Main Track Part II: Advances in High-Performance Computational Earth Sciences: Applications and Frameworks; Applications of Computational Methods in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning; Artificial Intelligence and High-Performance Computing for Advanced Simulations; Biomedical and Bioinformatics Challenges for Computer Science Part III: Classifier Learning from Difficult Data; Computational Analysis of Complex Social Systems; Computational Collective Intelligence; Computational Health Part IV: Computational Methods for Emerging Problems in (dis-)Information Analysis; Computational Methods in Smart Agriculture; Computational Optimization, Modelling and Simulation; Computational Science in IoT and Smart Systems Part V: Computer Graphics, Image Processing and Artificial Intelligence; Data-Driven Computational Sciences; Machine Learning and Data Assimilation for Dynamical Systems; MeshFree Methods and Radial Basis Functions in Computational Sciences; Multiscale Modelling and Simulation Part VI: Quantum Computing Workshop; Simulations of Flow and Transport: Modeling, Algorithms and Computation; Smart Systems: Bringing Together Computer Vision, Sensor Networks and Machine Learning; Software Engineering for Computational Science; Solving Problems with Uncertainty; Teaching Computational Science; Uncertainty Quantification for Computational Models *The conference was held virtually. Chapter “Intelligent Planning of Logistic Networks to Counteract Uncertainty Propagation” is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com. The six-volume set LNCS 12742, 12743, 12744, 12745, 12746, and 12747 constitutes the proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Computational Science, ICCS 2021, held in Krakow, Poland, in June 2021.* The total of 260 full papers and 57 short papers presented in this book set were carefully reviewed and selected from 635 submissions. 48 full and 14 short papers were accepted to the main track from 156 submissions; 212 full and 43 short papers were accepted to the workshops/ thematic tracks from 479 submissions. The papers were organized in topical sections named: Part I: ICCS Main Track Part II: Advances in High-Performance Computational Earth Sciences: Applications and Frameworks; Applications of Computational Methods in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning; Artificial Intelligence and High-Performance Computing for Advanced Simulations; Biomedical and Bioinformatics Challenges for Computer Science Part III: Classifier Learning from Difficult Data; Computational Analysis of Complex Social Systems; Computational Collective Intelligence; Computational Health Part IV: Computational Methods for Emerging Problems in (dis-)Information Analysis; Computational Methods in Smart Agriculture; Computational Optimization, Modelling and Simulation; Computational Science in IoT and Smart Systems Part V: Computer Graphics, Image Processing and Artificial Intelligence; Data-Driven Computational Sciences; Machine Learning and Data Assimilation for Dynamical Systems; MeshFree Methods and Radial Basis Functions in Computational Sciences; Multiscale Modelling and Simulation Part VI: Quantum Computing Workshop; Simulations of Flow and Transport: Modeling, Algorithms and Computation; Smart Systems: Bringing Together Computer Vision, Sensor Networks and Machine Learning; Software Engineering for Computational Science; Solving Problems with Uncertainty; Teaching Computational Science; Uncertainty Quantification for Computational Models *The conference was held virtually. Chapter “Intelligent Planning of Logistic Networks to Counteract Uncertainty Propagation” is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com. Chapter: Modelling and Forecasting Based on Recurrent Pseudoinverse Matrices” is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Risk Management in Energy Production and Trading by : Raimund M. Kovacevic
Download or read book Handbook of Risk Management in Energy Production and Trading written by Raimund M. Kovacevic and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-27 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents an overview of the risks involved in modern electricity production, delivery and trading, including technical risk in production, transportation and delivery, operational risk for the system operators, market risks for traders, and political and other long term risks in strategic management. Using decision making under uncertainty as a methodological background, the book is divided into four parts, with Part I focusing on energy markets, particularly electricity markets. Topics include a nontechnical overview of energy markets and their main properties, basic price models for energy commodity prices, and modeling approaches for electricity price processes. Part II looks at optimal decisions in managing energy systems, including hydropower dispatch models, cutting plane algorithms and approximative dynamic programming; hydro-thermal production; renewable; stochastic investments and operational optimization models for natural gas transport; decision making in operating electricity networks; and investment in extending energy production systems. Part III explores pricing, including electricity swing options and the pricing of derivatives with volume control. Part IV looks at long-term and political risks, including energy systems under aspects of climate change, and catastrophic operational risks, particularly risks from terrorist attacks.
