An Apocalypse Foretold Climate Shocks And Sovereign Defaults

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An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults

Author : Mr.Serhan Cevik
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781513560403
Total Pages : 22 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (64 download)

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Book Synopsis An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults by : Mr.Serhan Cevik

Download or read book An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults written by Mr.Serhan Cevik and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-11-08 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change poses an existential threat to the global economy. While there is a growing body of literature on the economic consequences of climate change, research on the link between climate change and sovereign default risk is nonexistent. We aim to fill this gap in the literature by estimating the impact of climate change vulnerability and resilience on the probability of sovereign debt default. Using a sample of 116 countries over the period 1995–2017, we find that climate change vulnerability and resilience have significant effects on the probability of sovereign debt default, especially among low-income countries. That is, countries with greater vulnerability to climate change face a higher likelihood of debt default compared to more climate resilient countries. These findings remain robust to a battery of sensitivity checks, including alternative measures of sovereign debt default, model specifications, and estimation methodologies.

Rogue Waves: Climate Change and Firm Performance

Author : Mr. Serhan Cevik
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Rogue Waves: Climate Change and Firm Performance by : Mr. Serhan Cevik

Download or read book Rogue Waves: Climate Change and Firm Performance written by Mr. Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-05-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is an existential threat to the global economy and financial markets. There is a large body of literature documenting potential macroeconomic consequences of climate change, but firm-level empirical research on how climate change affects the performance of firms remains scarce. This paper aims to close this gap by empirically investigating the impact of climate change vulnerability on corporate performance using a large panel dataset of more than 3.3 million nonfinancial firms from 24 developing countries over the period 1997–2019. We find that nonfinancial firms operating in countries with greater vulnerability to climate change tend to experience difficulty in access to debt financing even at higher interest rates, while being less productive and profitable relative to firms in countries with lower vulnerability to climate change. We confirm these findings with alternative measures of climate change vulnerability. Furthermore, partitioning the sample reveals that these effects are significantly greater for smaller firms, especially in high-risk sectors and countries and countries with weaker capacity to adapt to and mitigate the consequences of climate change.

Climate Change and Energy Security: The Dilemma Or Opportunity of the Century?

Author : Mr. Serhan Cevik
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Climate Change and Energy Security: The Dilemma Or Opportunity of the Century? by : Mr. Serhan Cevik

Download or read book Climate Change and Energy Security: The Dilemma Or Opportunity of the Century? written by Mr. Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-09-09 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the connection between climate change and energy security in Europe and provides empirical evidence that these issues are the two faces of the same coin. Using a panel of 39 countries in Europe over the period 1980–2019, the empirical analysis presented in this paper indicates that increasing the share of nuclear, renewables, and other non-hydrocarbon energy and improving energy efficiency could lead to a significant reduction in carbon emissions and improve energy security throughout Europe. Accordingly, policies and reforms aimed at shifting away from hydrocarbons and increasing energy efficiency in distribution and consumption are key to mitigating climate change, reducing energy dependence, and minimizing exposure to energy price volatility.

Eye of the Storm: The Impact of Climate Shocks on Inflation and Growth

Author : Mr. Serhan Cevik
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Eye of the Storm: The Impact of Climate Shocks on Inflation and Growth by : Mr. Serhan Cevik

Download or read book Eye of the Storm: The Impact of Climate Shocks on Inflation and Growth written by Mr. Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-04-28 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the impact of climate change on inflation and growth dynamics? This is not a simple question to answer as climate shocks tend to be ubiquitous, but with opposing effects simultaneously on demand and supply. The extent of which climate-related shocks affect inflation and economic growth also depends on long-run scarring in the economy and the country’s fiscal and institutional capacity to support recovery. In this paper, we use the local projection method to empirically investigate how climate shocks, as measured by climate-induced natural disasters, influence inflation and economic growth in a large panel of countries over the period 1970–2020. The results shows that both inflation and real GDP growth respond significantly but also differently in terms of direction and magnitude to different types of disasters caused by climate change. We split the full sample of countries into income groups—advanced economies and developing countries—and find a striking contrast in the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth according to income level, state of the economy, and fiscal space when the shock hits.

Building Financial Resilience to Climate Impacts A Framework for Governments to Manage the Risks of Losses and Damages

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9264801197
Total Pages : 135 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Building Financial Resilience to Climate Impacts A Framework for Governments to Manage the Risks of Losses and Damages by : OECD

Download or read book Building Financial Resilience to Climate Impacts A Framework for Governments to Manage the Risks of Losses and Damages written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2022-12-08 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Governments are facing significant climate-related risks from the expected increase in frequency and intensity of cyclones, floods, fires, and other climate-related extreme events. The report Building Financial Resilience to Climate Impacts: A Framework for Governments to Manage the Risks of Losses and Damages provides a strategic framework to help governments, particularly those in emerging market and developing economies, strengthen their capacity to manage the financial implications of climate-related risks.

Climate Change and Climate Finance

Author : Asian Development Bank
Publisher : Asian Development Bank
ISBN 13 : 9292703099
Total Pages : 202 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (927 download)

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Book Synopsis Climate Change and Climate Finance by : Asian Development Bank

Download or read book Climate Change and Climate Finance written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2023-09-01 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analyzing the role companies can play in tackling climate change, this book shows how they can set up effective environmental, social, and governance (ESG) frameworks and draft resilient strategies for sustainable activities and investment. It assesses the issue of climate justice, considers the impact of “greenwashing”, and looks at ways investors can evaluate ESG considerations. It outlines the corporate and economic risks of climate change alongside the response from central banks. It shows that policy guidance, increased transparency, and information sharing is central for the private sector to make progress towards tackling climate change while protecting its business interests.

Macro-Fiscal Implications of Adaptation to Climate Change

Author : Mr. Zamid Aligishiev
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Macro-Fiscal Implications of Adaptation to Climate Change by : Mr. Zamid Aligishiev

Download or read book Macro-Fiscal Implications of Adaptation to Climate Change written by Mr. Zamid Aligishiev and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-03-23 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adaptation to climate change is an integral part of sustainable development and a necessity for advanced and developing economies alike. How can adaptation be planned for and mainstreamed into fiscal policy? Setting up inclusive coordination mechanisms and strengthening legal foundations to incorporate climate change can be a prerequisite. This Note identifies four building blocks: 1. Taking stock of present and future climate risks, identifying knowledge and capacity gaps, and establishing guidance for next steps. 2. Developing adaptation solutions. This block can be guided by extending the IMF three-pillar disaster resilience strategy to address changes in both extreme and average weather and would cover the prevention of risks, the alleviation of residual risks, and macro-fiscal resilience. 3. Mainstreaming these solutions into government operations. This requires strengthening public financial management institutions by factoring climate risks and adaptation plans into budgets and macro-frameworks, and in the management of public investment, assets and liabilities. 4. Providing for transparent evaluations to inform future plans. This involves continually monitoring progress and regularly updating adaptation plans.

Planning and Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Fiscal Policy

Author : Emanuele Massetti
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Planning and Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Fiscal Policy by : Emanuele Massetti

Download or read book Planning and Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Fiscal Policy written by Emanuele Massetti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-03-23 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Staff Climate Note is part of a series of three Notes (IMF Staff Climate Note 2022/001, 2022/002, and 2022/003) that discuss fiscal policies for climate change adaptation. A first Note (Bellon and Massetti 2022, henceforth Note 1) examines the economic principles that can guide the integration of climate change adaptation into fiscal policy. It argues that climate change adaptation should be part of a holistic, sustainable, and equitable development strategy. To maximize the impact of scarce resources, governments need to prioritize among all development programs, including but not limited to adaptation. To this end, they can use cost-benefit analysis while ensuring that the decision-making process reflects society’s preferences about equity and uncertainty. A second Note (Aligishiev, Bellon, and Massetti. 2022, henceforth Note 2) discusses the macro-fiscal implications of climate change adaptation. It reviews evidence on the effectiveness of adaptation at reducing climate change damages, on residual risks, and on adaptation investment needs, and suggests ways to integrate climate risks and adaptation costs into national macro-fiscal frameworks with the goal of guiding fiscal policy. It stresses that lower-income vulnerable countries, which have typically not contributed much to climate change, face exacerbated challenges that warrant increased international support. This third Note considers how to translate adaptation principles and estimates of climate impacts into effective policies.

This Is Going to Hurt: Weather Anomalies, Supply Chain Pressures and Inflation

Author : Mr. Serhan Cevik
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis This Is Going to Hurt: Weather Anomalies, Supply Chain Pressures and Inflation by : Mr. Serhan Cevik

Download or read book This Is Going to Hurt: Weather Anomalies, Supply Chain Pressures and Inflation written by Mr. Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-04-05 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate change accelerates, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events are expected to worsen and have greater adverse consequences for ecosystems, physical infrastructure, and economic activity across the world. This paper investigates how weather anomalies affect global supply chains and inflation dynamics. Using monthly data for six large and well-diversified economies (China, the Euro area, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States) over the period 1997-2021, we implement a structural vector autoregressive model and document that weather anomalies could disrupt supply chains and subsequently lead to inflationary pressures. Our results—based on high-frequency data and robust to alternative estimation methodologies—show that these effects vary across countries, depending on the severity of weather shocks and vulnerability to supply chain disruptions. The impact of weather shocks on supply chains and inflation dynamics is likely to become more pronounced with accelerating climate change that can have non-linear effects. These findings have important policy implications. Central bankers should consider the impact of weather anomalies on supply chains and inflation dynamics to prevent entrenching second-round effects and de-anchoring of inflation expectations. More directly, however, governments can invest more for climate change adaptation to strengthen critical infrastructure and thereby minimize supply chain disruptions.

Republic of Lithuania

Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Republic of Lithuania by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Download or read book Republic of Lithuania written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-07-28 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Selected Issues

Understanding Collapse

Author : Guy D. Middleton
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 110715149X
Total Pages : 463 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Collapse by : Guy D. Middleton

Download or read book Understanding Collapse written by Guy D. Middleton and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-06-26 with total page 463 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this lively survey, Guy D. Middleton critically examines our ideas about collapse - how we explain it and how we have constructed potentially misleading myths around collapses - showing how and why collapse of societies was a much more complex phenomenon than is often admitted.

The Sovereign Individual

Author : James Dale Davidson
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1439144737
Total Pages : 363 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (391 download)

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Book Synopsis The Sovereign Individual by : James Dale Davidson

Download or read book The Sovereign Individual written by James Dale Davidson and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2020-02-04 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the authors of The Great Reckoning: “A sweeping analysis of the implications, especially financial, of the information age.” —Library Journal In this book, two renowned investment advisors bring to light both currents of disaster and the potential for prosperity and renewal in the face of radical changes in human history in the twenty-first century. The Sovereign Individual details strategies necessary for adapting financially to the next phase of Western civilization. Few observers have had their fingers so presciently on the pulse of global political and economic realignment: Their bold prediction of disaster on Wall Street in Blood in the Streets was borne out by Black Tuesday. In their ensuing bestseller, The Great Reckoning, published just weeks before the coup attempt against Mikhail Gorbachev, they analyzed the pending collapse of the Soviet Union and foretold the civil war in Yugoslavia. In The Sovereign Individual, they explore the greatest economic and political transition in centuries—the shift from an industrial to an information-based society. This transition, which they have termed “the fourth stage of human society,” will liberate individuals as never before, irrevocably altering the power of government. This outstanding book will replace false hopes and fictions with new understanding and clarified values.

Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises

Author : Federico Sturzenegger
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262195534
Total Pages : 399 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (621 download)

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Book Synopsis Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises by : Federico Sturzenegger

Download or read book Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises written by Federico Sturzenegger and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2007-01-05 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Detailed case studies of debt defaults by Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Moldova, and Uruguay, framed by a comprehensive discussion of the history, economic theory, legal issues, and policy lessons of sovereign debt crises. The debt crises in emerging market countries over the past decade have given rise to renewed debate about crisis prevention and resolution. In Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises, Federico Sturzenegger and Jeromin Zettelmeyer examine the facts, the economic theory, and the policy implications of sovereign debt crises. They present detailed case histories of the default and debt crises in seven emerging market countries between 1998 and 2005: Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Argentina, Moldova, and Uruguay. These accounts are framed with a comprehensive overview of the history, economics, and legal issues involved and a discussion from both domestic and international perspectives of the policy lessons that can be derived from these experiences. Sturzenegger and Zettelmeyer examine how each crisis developed, what the subsequent restructuring encompassed, and how investors and the defaulting country fared. They discuss the new theoretical thinking on sovereign debt and the ultimate costs entailed, for both debtor countries and private creditors. The policy debate is considered first from the perspective of policymakers in emerging market countries and then in terms of international financial architecture. The authors' surveys of legal and economic issues associated with debt crises, and of the crises themselves, are the most comprehensive to be found in the literature on sovereign debt and default, and their theoretical analysis is detailed and nuanced. The book will be a valuable resource for investors as well as for scholars and policymakers.

The Oxford Handbook of Apocalyptic Literature

Author : John Joseph Collins
Publisher : Oxford Handbooks
ISBN 13 : 0199856494
Total Pages : 565 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (998 download)

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Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Apocalyptic Literature by : John Joseph Collins

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Apocalyptic Literature written by John Joseph Collins and published by Oxford Handbooks. This book was released on 2014 with total page 565 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Apocalypticism arose in ancient Judaism in the last centuries BCE and played a crucial role in the rise of Christianity. It is not only of historical interest: there has been a growing awareness, especially since the 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, of the prevalence of apocalyptic beliefs in the contemporary world. To understand these beliefs, it is necessary to appreciate their complex roots in the ancient world, and the multi-faceted character of the phenomenon of apocalypticism. The Oxford Handbook of Apocalyptic Literature is a thematic and phenomenological exploration of apocalypticism in the Judaic and Christian traditions. Most of the volume is devoted to the apocalyptic literature of antiquity. Essays explore the relationship between apocalypticism and prophecy, wisdom and mysticism; the social function of apocalypticism and its role as resistance literature; apocalyptic rhetoric from both historical and postmodern perspectives; and apocalyptic theology, focusing on phenomena of determinism and dualism and exploring apocalyptic theology's role in ancient Judaism, early Christianity, and Gnosticism. The final chapters of the volume are devoted to the appropriation of apocalypticism in the modern world, reviewing the role of apocalypticism in contemporary Judaism and Christianity, and more broadly in popular culture, addressing the increasingly studied relation between apocalypticism and violence, and discussing the relationship between apocalypticism and trauma, which speaks to the underlying causes of the popularity of apocalyptic beliefs. This volume will further the understanding of a vital religious phenomenon too often dismissed as alien and irrational by secular western society.

In the Eye of the Storm

Author : Alberto Costi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780473550028
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (5 download)

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Book Synopsis In the Eye of the Storm by : Alberto Costi

Download or read book In the Eye of the Storm written by Alberto Costi and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This publication... is the product of our second biennial Pacific Climate Change Conference held in Wellington in 2018. A diverse range of experts have addressed the current state of the Pacific, researching and writing chapters on: the physical science of climate change; impacts and adaptation; mitigation techniques; politics and security; international cooperation; domestic and international legal issues; economics and business; communication through the arts and media; and matters of faith and spirituality"--Page xi.

The Least Developed Countries Report 2020

Author : United Nations
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789211129984
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (299 download)

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Book Synopsis The Least Developed Countries Report 2020 by : United Nations

Download or read book The Least Developed Countries Report 2020 written by United Nations and published by . This book was released on 2021-01-06 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This series contains the decisions of the Court in both the English and French texts.

The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters

Author : Debarati Guha-Sapir
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199841934
Total Pages : 341 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (998 download)

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Book Synopsis The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters by : Debarati Guha-Sapir

Download or read book The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters written by Debarati Guha-Sapir and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2013-05-23 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work combines research and empirical evidence on the economic costs of disasters with theoretical approaches. It provides new insights on how to assess and manage the costs and impacts of disaster prevention, mitigation, recovery and adaption, and much more.