An Analysis Of The 1948 Presidential Election Polls

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Dewey Defeats Truman

Author : A. J. Baime
Publisher : Houghton Mifflin
ISBN 13 : 1328585069
Total Pages : 445 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (285 download)

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Book Synopsis Dewey Defeats Truman by : A. J. Baime

Download or read book Dewey Defeats Truman written by A. J. Baime and published by Houghton Mifflin. This book was released on 2020 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From theNew York Times best-selling author ofThe Accidental Presidentcomes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America. On the eve of the 1948 election, America was a fractured country. Racism was rampant, foreign relations were fraught, and political parties were more divided than ever. Americans were certain that President Harry S. Truman's political career was over. "The ballots haven't been counted," noted political columnist Fred Othman, "but there seems to be no further need for holding up an affectional farewell to Harry Truman." Truman's own staff did not believe he could win. Nor did his wife, Bess. The only man in the world confident that Truman would win was Mr. Truman himself. And win he did. 1948 was a fight for the soul of a nation. InDewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events--the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. Not only did Truman win the election, he succeeded in guiding his country forward at a critical time with high stakes and haunting parallels to the modern day.

The Pre-election Polls of 1948

Author : Frederick Mosteller
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 424 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis The Pre-election Polls of 1948 by : Frederick Mosteller

Download or read book The Pre-election Polls of 1948 written by Frederick Mosteller and published by . This book was released on 1949 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Lost in a Gallup

Author : W. Joseph Campbell
Publisher : Univ of California Press
ISBN 13 : 0520397827
Total Pages : 366 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (23 download)

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Book Synopsis Lost in a Gallup by : W. Joseph Campbell

Download or read book Lost in a Gallup written by W. Joseph Campbell and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 2024-02-20 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections. Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.

Truman's Triumphs

Author : Andrew E. Busch
Publisher : University Press of Kansas
ISBN 13 : 0700618678
Total Pages : 290 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (6 download)

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Book Synopsis Truman's Triumphs by : Andrew E. Busch

Download or read book Truman's Triumphs written by Andrew E. Busch and published by University Press of Kansas. This book was released on 2012-10-23 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Chicago Tribune headline "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN" remains infamously wrong about the outcome of the 1948 presidential election. But, as Andrew Busch reveals, there is much more to this story than the well-worn image of a victorious and beaming President Harry Truman parading the newspaper's erroneously headlined front page for all to see. Primarily a contest between Truman and challenger Thomas Dewey, the 1948 presidential race offered something for everyone, including two third-party candidates (Strom Thurmond and Henry Wallace), triumphant grit, tragic hubris, dangerous naivet, accidents of fate, accusations of betrayal, foreign crises, the birth of Israel in the Middle East, a dramatic special session of Congress, internecine battles among unions and liberals, spies, extremists galore (including Ku Klux Klansmen and Communists), the first televised convention, wayward polls, and, of course, a final result that surprised many. Amid a small library of books on the topic, Busch's stands out by offering the best scholarly study available--and the most readable. His fresh account goes beyond previous work by examining more closely the nomination season, key congressional elections, and the state of public opinion. He also digs into splits in both parties-the Democrats seeing Southern segregationists and the far left run their own candidates and the Republicans facing a division between philosophical wings representing the 80th Congress and the presidential ticket--and tells why the Republican schism proved more damaging. He concludes that the election was especially significant as an affirmation of the New Deal, of anti-Communist containment, and of gradual progress in civil rights--all of which established the political baseline for postwar America. Even readers knowledgeable about Truman's 1948 victory will discover new findings in this fresh and revealing account of that dramatic race. Truman's Triumphs recalls a contest with more twists and turns-and a different outcome-than most contemporaries anticipated, and makes engaging reading for scholar and history buff alike.

Dear Bess

Author : Harry S. Truman
Publisher : University of Missouri Press
ISBN 13 : 9780826212030
Total Pages : 614 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (12 download)

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Book Synopsis Dear Bess by : Harry S. Truman

Download or read book Dear Bess written by Harry S. Truman and published by University of Missouri Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 614 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This correspondence, which encompasses Truman's courtship of his wife, his service in the senate, his presidency, and after, reveals not only the character of Truman's mind but also a shrewd observer's view of American politics.

Media Bias in Presidential Election Coverage 1948-2008

Author : David W. D'Alessio
Publisher : Lexington Books
ISBN 13 : 0739164767
Total Pages : 155 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (391 download)

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Book Synopsis Media Bias in Presidential Election Coverage 1948-2008 by : David W. D'Alessio

Download or read book Media Bias in Presidential Election Coverage 1948-2008 written by David W. D'Alessio and published by Lexington Books. This book was released on 2012-03-22 with total page 155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accusations of partisan bias in Presidential election coverage are suspect at best and self-serving at worst. They are generally supported by the methodology of instance confirmation, tainted by the hostile media effect, and based on simplistic visions of how the news media are organized. Media Bias in Presidential Election Coverage 1948-2008 by Dave D’Alessio, is a revealing analysis that shows the news media have four essential natures: as journalistic entities, businesses, political actors, and property, all of which can act to create news coverage biases, in some cases in opposing directions. By meta-analyzing the results of 99 previous examinations of media coverage of Presidential elections from 1948 to 2008, D’Alessio reveals that coverage has no aggregate partisan bias either way, even though there are small biases in specific realms that are generally insubstantial. Furthermore, while publishers used to control coverage preferences, this practice has become negligible in recent years. Media Bias proves that, at least in terms of Presidential election coverage, The New York Times is not the most liberal paper in America and the Fox News channel is substantially more conservative in news coverage than the broadcast networks. Finally, Media Bias in Presidential Election Coverage 1948-2008 predicts that no amount of evidence will cause political candidates to cease complaining about bias because such accusations have both strategic potential in campaigns and an undeniable utility in ego defense.

The Pre-election Polls of 1948

Author : Frederick Mosteller
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 424 pages
Book Rating : 4.A/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The Pre-election Polls of 1948 by : Frederick Mosteller

A Century of Votes for Women

Author : Christina Wolbrecht
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107187494
Total Pages : 323 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis A Century of Votes for Women by : Christina Wolbrecht

Download or read book A Century of Votes for Women written by Christina Wolbrecht and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-01-30 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examines how and why American women voted since the Nineteenth Amendment was ratified in 1920.

Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition

Author : Ray Fair
Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0804778027
Total Pages : 234 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition by : Ray Fair

Download or read book Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition written by Ray Fair and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-14 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.

US Presidential Elections and Foreign Policy

Author : Andrew Johnstone
Publisher : University Press of Kentucky
ISBN 13 : 0813169062
Total Pages : 374 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (131 download)

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Book Synopsis US Presidential Elections and Foreign Policy by : Andrew Johnstone

Download or read book US Presidential Elections and Foreign Policy written by Andrew Johnstone and published by University Press of Kentucky. This book was released on 2017-05-05 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While domestic issues loom large in voters' minds during American presidential elections, matters of foreign policy have consistently shaped candidates and their campaigns. From the start of World War II through the collapse of the Soviet Union, presidential hopefuls needed to be perceived as credible global leaders in order to win elections -- regardless of the situation at home -- and voter behavior depended heavily on whether the nation was at war or peace. Yet there is little written about the importance of foreign policy in US presidential elections or the impact of electoral issues on the formation of foreign policy. In US Presidential Elections and Foreign Policy, a team of international scholars examines how the relationship between foreign policy and electoral politics evolved through the latter half of the twentieth century. Covering all presidential elections from 1940 to 1992 -- from debates over American entry into World War II to the aftermath of the Cold War -- the contributors correct the conventional wisdom that domestic issues and the economy are always definitive. Together they demonstrate that, while international concerns were more important in some campaigns than others, foreign policy always matters and is often decisive. This illuminating commentary fills a significant gap in the literature on presidential and electoral politics, emphasizing that candidates' positions on global issues have a palpable impact on American foreign policy.

The Last Campaign

Author : Zachary Karabell
Publisher : Vintage
ISBN 13 : 0307428869
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (74 download)

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Book Synopsis The Last Campaign by : Zachary Karabell

Download or read book The Last Campaign written by Zachary Karabell and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2007-12-18 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In The Last Campaign, Zachary Karabell rescues the 1948 presidential campaign from the annals of political folklore ("Dewey Defeats Truman," the Chicago Tribune memorably and erroneously heralded), to give us a fresh look at perhaps the last time the American people could truly distinguish what the candidates stood for. In 1948, Harry Truman, the feisty working-class Democratic incumbent was one of the most unpopular presidents the country had ever known. His Republican rival, the aloof Thomas Dewey, was widely thought to be a shoe-in. These two major party candidates were flanked on the far left by the Progressive Henry Wallace, and on the far right by white supremacist Dixiecrat Strom Thurmond. The Last Campaign exposes the fascinating story behind Truman’s legendary victory and turns a probing eye toward a by-gone era of political earnestness, when, for “the last time in this century, an entire spectrum of ideologies was represented,” a time before television fundamentally altered the political landscape.

American Government 3e

Author : Glen Krutz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781738998470
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (984 download)

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Book Synopsis American Government 3e by : Glen Krutz

Download or read book American Government 3e written by Glen Krutz and published by . This book was released on 2023-05-12 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Black & white print. American Government 3e aligns with the topics and objectives of many government courses. Faculty involved in the project have endeavored to make government workings, issues, debates, and impacts meaningful and memorable to students while maintaining the conceptual coverage and rigor inherent in the subject. With this objective in mind, the content of this textbook has been developed and arranged to provide a logical progression from the fundamental principles of institutional design at the founding, to avenues of political participation, to thorough coverage of the political structures that constitute American government. The book builds upon what students have already learned and emphasizes connections between topics as well as between theory and applications. The goal of each section is to enable students not just to recognize concepts, but to work with them in ways that will be useful in later courses, future careers, and as engaged citizens. In order to help students understand the ways that government, society, and individuals interconnect, the revision includes more examples and details regarding the lived experiences of diverse groups and communities within the United States. The authors and reviewers sought to strike a balance between confronting the negative and harmful elements of American government, history, and current events, while demonstrating progress in overcoming them. In doing so, the approach seeks to provide instructors with ample opportunities to open discussions, extend and update concepts, and drive deeper engagement.

Votes That Count and Voters Who Don’t

Author : Sharon E. Jarvis
Publisher : Penn State Press
ISBN 13 : 0271082887
Total Pages : 201 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Votes That Count and Voters Who Don’t by : Sharon E. Jarvis

Download or read book Votes That Count and Voters Who Don’t written by Sharon E. Jarvis and published by Penn State Press. This book was released on 2019-06-27 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For decades, journalists have called the winners of U.S. presidential elections—often in error—well before the closing of the polls. In Votes That Count and Voters Who Don’t, Sharon E. Jarvis and Soo-Hye Han investigate what motivates journalists to call elections before the votes have been tallied and, more importantly, what this and similar practices signal to the electorate about the value of voter participation. Jarvis and Han track how journalists have told the story of electoral participation during the last eighteen presidential elections, revealing how the portrayal of voters in the popular press has evolved over the last half century from that of mobilized partisan actors vital to electoral outcomes to that of pawns of political elites and captives of a flawed electoral system. The authors engage with experiments and focus groups to reveal the effects that these portrayals have on voters and share their findings in interviews with prominent journalists. Votes That Count and Voters Who Don’t not only explores the failings of the media but also shows how the story of electoral participation might be told in ways that support both democratic and journalistic values. At a time when professional strategists are pressuring journalists to provide favorable coverage for their causes and candidates, this book invites academics, organizations, the press, and citizens alike to advocate for the voter’s place in the news.

Pre-Election Polling

Author : Irving Crespi
Publisher : Russell Sage Foundation
ISBN 13 : 1610441443
Total Pages : 218 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis Pre-Election Polling by : Irving Crespi

Download or read book Pre-Election Polling written by Irving Crespi and published by Russell Sage Foundation. This book was released on 1988-08-23 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 1948, when pollsters unanimously forecast a Dewey victory over Truman, media-sponsored polls have proliferated, accompanied by a growing unease about their accuracy. Pre-Election Polling probes the results of over 430 recent polls and taps the professional "lore" of experienced pollsters to offer a major new assessment of polling practices in the 1980s. In a study of unusual scope and depth, Crespi examines the accuracy of polls conducted before a range of elections, from presidential to local. He incorporates the previously unpublished observations and reflections of pollsters representing national organizations (including Gallup, Roper, and the CBS/New York Times Poll) as well as pollsters from state, academic, and private organizations. Crespi finds potential sources of polling error in such areas as sampling, question wording, anticipating turnout, and accounting for last-minute changes in preference. To these methodological correlates of accuracy he adds important political considerations—is it a primary or general election; what office is being contested; how well known are the candidates; how crystallized are voter attitudes? Polls have become a vital feature of our political process; by exploring their strengths and weaknesses, Pre-Election Polling enhances our ability to predict and understand the complexities of voting behavior. "Combines intelligent empirical analysis with an informed insider's interpretation of the dynamics of the survey research process....Should be studied not only by all practitioners and students of opinion research but by anyone who makes use of polls." —Leo Bogart, Newspaper Advertising Bureau, Inc.

Voting

Author : Bernard R. Berelson
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226043509
Total Pages : 415 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (26 download)

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Book Synopsis Voting by : Bernard R. Berelson

Download or read book Voting written by Bernard R. Berelson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1986-06-15 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Voting is an examination of the factors that make people vote the way they do. Based on the famous Elmira Study, carried out by a team of skilled social scientists during the 1948 presidential campaign, it shows how voting is affected by social class, religious background, family loyalties, on-the-job relationships, local pressure groups, mass communication media, and other factors. Still highly relevant, Voting is one of the most frequently cited books in the field of voting behavior.

In Time of War

Author : Adam J. Berinsky
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226043460
Total Pages : 710 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (26 download)

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Book Synopsis In Time of War by : Adam J. Berinsky

Download or read book In Time of War written by Adam J. Berinsky and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-10-15 with total page 710 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From World War II to the war in Iraq, periods of international conflict seem like unique moments in U.S. political history—but when it comes to public opinion, they are not. To make this groundbreaking revelation, In Time of War explodes conventional wisdom about American reactions to World War II, as well as the more recent conflicts in Korea, Vietnam, the Gulf, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Adam Berinsky argues that public response to these crises has been shaped less by their defining characteristics—such as what they cost in lives and resources—than by the same political interests and group affiliations that influence our ideas about domestic issues. With the help of World War II–era survey data that had gone virtually untouched for the past sixty years, Berinsky begins by disproving the myth of “the good war” that Americans all fell in line to support after the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. The attack, he reveals, did not significantly alter public opinion but merely punctuated interventionist sentiment that had already risen in response to the ways that political leaders at home had framed the fighting abroad. Weaving his findings into the first general theory of the factors that shape American wartime opinion, Berinsky also sheds new light on our reactions to other crises. He shows, for example, that our attitudes toward restricted civil liberties during Vietnam and after 9/11 stemmed from the same kinds of judgments we make during times of peace. With Iraq and Afghanistan now competing for attention with urgent issues within the United States, In Time of War offers a timely reminder of the full extent to which foreign and domestic politics profoundly influence—and ultimately illuminate—each other.

The SAGE Handbook of Public Opinion Research

Author : Wolfgang Donsbach
Publisher : SAGE
ISBN 13 : 1446206513
Total Pages : 641 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (462 download)

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Book Synopsis The SAGE Handbook of Public Opinion Research by : Wolfgang Donsbach

Download or read book The SAGE Handbook of Public Opinion Research written by Wolfgang Donsbach and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2007-12-18 with total page 641 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ′Some of the most experienced and thoughtful research experts in the world have contributed to this comprehensive Handbook, which should have a place on every serious survey researcher′s bookshelf′ - Sir Robert Worcester, Founder of MORI and President of WAPOR ′82-′84. ′This is the book I have been waiting for. It not only reflects the state of the art, but will most likely also shape public opinion on public opinion research′ - Olof Petersson, Professor of political science, SNS, Stockholm, Sweden ′The Handbook of Public Opinion Research is very authoritative, well organized, and sensitive to key issues in opinion research around the world. It will be my first choice as a general reference book for orienting users and training producers of opinion polls in Southeast Asia′ - Mahar K. Mangahas, Ph.D., President of Social Weather Stations, Philippines (www.sws.org.ph) ′This is the most comprehensive book on public opinion research to date′ - Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Secretary-Treasurer, World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR); Director of Public Opinion Programme, The University of Hong Kong Public opinion theory and research are becoming increasingly significant in modern societies as people′s attitudes and behaviours become ever more volatile and opinion poll data becomes ever more readily available. This major new Handbook is the first to bring together into one volume the whole field of public opinion theory, research methodology, and the political and social embeddedness of polls in modern societies. It comprehensively maps out the state-of-the-art in contemporary scholarship on these topics. With over fifty chapters written by distinguished international researchers, both academic and from the commercial sector, this Handbook is designed to: - give the reader an overview of the most important concepts included in and surrounding the term ′public opinion′ and its application in modern social research - present the basic empirical concepts for assessing public opinion and opinion changes in society - provide an overview of the social, political and legal status of public opinion research, how it is perceived by the public and by journalists, and how it is used by governments - offer a review of the role and use of surveys for selected special fields of application, ranging from their use in legal cases to the use of polls in marketing and campaigns. The Handbook of Public Opinion Research provides an indispensable resource for both practitioners and students alike.