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A Two Part Study In The Evaluation Of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts From Convection Allowing Models
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Book Synopsis A Two-part Study in the Evaluation of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-allowing Models by : Eswar R. Iyer
Download or read book A Two-part Study in the Evaluation of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-allowing Models written by Eswar R. Iyer and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis On the Scale-dependence of the Predictability of Precipitation Patterns by Numerical Weather Prediction Models by : Madalina Surcel
Download or read book On the Scale-dependence of the Predictability of Precipitation Patterns by Numerical Weather Prediction Models written by Madalina Surcel and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Despite the increased realism of convective-allowing Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, their accuracy has not improved as expected, especially for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). Many factors can account for the poor QPF skill, from intrinsic predictability limitations to shortcomings of the evaluation method. Given the complexity of precipitation processes, more effort is needed to understand their predictability.In this thesis, data from NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) forecasting Spring Experiments of 2008-2013 are analyzed to study precipitation predictability at the mesoscale. This unique data set, consisting of high-resolution (4-km grid spacing) ensemble precipitation forecasts covering most of the Continental US, with different types of perturbation methodologies and mesoscale data assimilation, allows the investigation of the QPF sensitivity to different forecast uncertainties.Several questions are addressed. First, a methodology is developed to quantify the loss of precipitation predictability with spatial scale and forecast time. Then, this methodology is applied to the 2008 data to characterize the scale dependence of the predictability of precipitation by an ensemble that has both large-scale initial and lateral boundary condition (IC/LBC) perturbations and varied model physics. The predictability by the ensemble is found to be very short-lived (2 hours for meso-[gamma] scales, and 10 hours for meso-[beta] scales). When compared to radar derived precipitation maps, the ensemble forecasts fully lose skill at meso-[beta] scales after the first 3 hours.The case-dependence of precipitation predictability is also explored. Statistical relationships between predictability and the effect of large-scale forcing are usually weak. However, two different types of precipitation systems can be identified: widespread systems associated with mid-latitude cyclones, and mesoscale systems whose evolution is modulated by the diurnal cycle of solar heating. While the overall predictability differs between these two types of cases, the rate at which predictability is lost with forecast time and spatial scale does not.By applying the methodology to the entire data set of 2008-2013, the impact of different types of ensemble perturbations can be assessed. The results show that all the types of perturbations analyzed here fail to generate sufficient dispersion, but that large-scale IC/LBC uncertainties account for most of the forecast error.The gain in QPF skill achieved through radar-data-assimilation, and the advantage of using these sophisticated NWP models rather than simpler statistical forecasting methods for very-short term forecasting are also discussed." --
Book Synopsis The Global Monsoon System by : Chih-Pei Chang
Download or read book The Global Monsoon System written by Chih-Pei Chang and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 609 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a current review of the science of monsoon research and forecasting. The contents are based on the invited reviews presented at the World Meteorological Organization''s Fourth International Workshop on Monsoons in late 2008, with subsequent manuscripts revised from 2009 to early 2010. The book builds on the concept that the monsoons in various parts of the globe can be viewed as components of an integrated global monsoon system, while emphasizing that significant region-specific characteristics are present in individual monsoon regions. The topics covered include all major monsoon regions and time scales (mesoscale, synoptic, intraseasonal, interannual, decadal, and climate change). It is intended to provide an updated comprehensive review of the current status of knowledge, modeling capability, and future directions in the research of monsoon systems around the world.
Book Synopsis Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting by : Peter Ray
Download or read book Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting written by Peter Ray and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-03-30 with total page 803 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of selected lectures presented at the ‘Intensive Course on Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting’ in Boulder, USA, in 1984. It includes mesoscale classifications, observing techniques and systems, internally generated circulations, mesoscale convective systems, externally forced circulations, modeling and short-range forecasting techniques. This is a highly illustrated book and comprehensive work, including extensive bibliographic references. It is aimed at graduates in meteorology and for professionals working in the field.
Book Synopsis An Evaluation of the Factors Affecting Wintertime Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in an Explicit Cloud Model Over Mountainous Terrain by : Michael P. Meyers
Download or read book An Evaluation of the Factors Affecting Wintertime Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in an Explicit Cloud Model Over Mountainous Terrain written by Michael P. Meyers and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 127 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction by : Haraldur Olafsson
Download or read book Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction written by Haraldur Olafsson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2020-11-25 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction is a comprehensive work on the most current understandings of uncertainties and predictability in numerical simulations of the atmosphere. It provides general knowledge on all aspects of uncertainties in the weather prediction models in a single, easy to use reference. The book illustrates particular uncertainties in observations and data assimilation, as well as the errors associated with numerical integration methods. Stochastic methods in parameterization of subgrid processes are also assessed, as are uncertainties associated with surface-atmosphere exchange, orographic flows and processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. Through a better understanding of the uncertainties to watch for, readers will be able to produce more precise and accurate forecasts. This is an essential work for anyone who wants to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting and interested parties developing tools to enhance the quality of such forecasts. Provides a comprehensive overview of the state of numerical weather prediction at spatial scales, from hundreds of meters, to thousands of kilometers Focuses on short-term 1-15 day atmospheric predictions, with some coverage appropriate for longer-term forecasts Includes references to climate prediction models to allow applications of these techniques for climate simulations
Book Synopsis Forecast Verification by : Ian T. Jolliffe
Download or read book Forecast Verification written by Ian T. Jolliffe and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-08-01 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms
Book Synopsis Advances in Environmental Science and Engineering by : James R. Pfafflin
Download or read book Advances in Environmental Science and Engineering written by James R. Pfafflin and published by Routledge. This book was released on 1979 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of Russia's philosophical heritage. It extends from the Slavophiles to the philosophers of the Silver Age, from emigre religious thinkers to Losev and Bakhtin and assesses the meaning for Russian culture as a whole.
Book Synopsis Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability by : National Research Council
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Book Synopsis Meteorology of Tropical West Africa by : Douglas J. Parker
Download or read book Meteorology of Tropical West Africa written by Douglas J. Parker and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-04-24 with total page 490 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Meteorology of tropical West Africa: the Forecasters’ Handbook presents the science and practice of weather forecasting for an important region of the tropics. Connecting basic theory with forecasting practice, the book provides a unique training volume for operational weather forecasters, and is also suitable for students of tropical meteorology. The West African region contains a number of archetypal climatic zones, meaning that the science of its weather and climate applies to many other tropical regions. West Africa also exhibits some of the world’s most remarkable weather systems, making it an inspiring region for students to investigate. The weather of West Africa affects human livelihoods on a daily basis, and can contribute to hardship, poverty and mortality. Therefore, the ability to understand and predict the weather has the potential to deliver significant benefits to both society and economies. The book includes comprehensive background material alongside documentation of weather forecasting methods. Many examples taken from observations of West African weather systems are included and online case-studies are referenced widely.
Book Synopsis Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts by : Stéphane Vannitsem
Download or read book Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts written by Stéphane Vannitsem and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-05-17 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner
Download or read book Monthly Weather Review written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 1164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Multiscale Statistical Measures for Assessment of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts by : Jesús Zepeda-Arce
Download or read book Multiscale Statistical Measures for Assessment of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts written by Jesús Zepeda-Arce and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309388805 Total Pages :351 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (93 download)
Book Synopsis Next Generation Earth System Prediction by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Author :Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309517656 Total Pages :424 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (95 download)
Book Synopsis The Atmospheric Sciences by : Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Download or read book The Atmospheric Sciences written by Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1998-11-05 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technology has propelled the atmospheric sciences from a fledgling discipline to a global enterprise. Findings in this field shape a broad spectrum of decisions--what to wear outdoors, whether aircraft should fly, how to deal with the issue of climate change, and more. This book presents a comprehensive assessment of the atmospheric sciences and offers a vision for the future and a range of recommendations for federal authorities, the scientific community, and education administrators. How does atmospheric science contribute to national well-being? In the context of this question, the panel identifies imperatives in scientific observation, recommends directions for modeling and forecasting research, and examines management issues, including the growing problem of weather data availability. Five subdisciplines--physics, chemistry, dynamics and weather forecasting, upper atmosphere and near-earth space physics, climate and climate change--and their status as the science enters the twenty-first century are examined in detail, including recommendations for research. This readable book will be of interest to public-sector policy framers and private-sector decisionmakers as well as researchers, educators, and students in the atmospheric sciences.
Book Synopsis Evaluation of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in the Atlantic Provinces by : R. V. Tyner
Download or read book Evaluation of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in the Atlantic Provinces written by R. V. Tyner and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Analysis of a Heavy Precipitation Event During "PRE"-CIP Using Regional and Global Model Forecasts by : Andreas Sandino
Download or read book Analysis of a Heavy Precipitation Event During "PRE"-CIP Using Regional and Global Model Forecasts written by Andreas Sandino and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme rainfall events are high-impact weather phenomena that are often difficult to predict because fundamental processes forcing such events are not yet fully understood. This study focuses on a heavy precipitation summertime convection event that produced a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in northeastern Colorado using radar observations, the NOAA GFDL C-SHiELD global model, and the PSU WRF-EnKF regional ensemble model. These datasets allowed for a comprehensive examination of the essential features and processes needed to generate this specific event, an inter-model comparison across a hierarchy of models, and an assessment of the predictability of this and similar events. The selected C-SHiELD forecast best matched the observed conditions and accurately simulated an MCV. The WRF ensemble simulations were categorized into three distinct groups: `similar to obs', `backheavy', and `simulated MCV'. The `similar to obs' group differed notably from the other two WRF groups due to the absence of midlevel moisture, which increased dry air entrainment rates and limited the duration and amount of precipitation. The other two WRF groups, characterized by more moist environments, stronger updrafts, and the presence of moderate wind shear, contributed to sustained convection, resulting in an overestimation of precipitation. The study also highlighted the contrasting performance of the WRF and C-SHiELD models, with the WRF model showing greater fidelity in capturing the event's characteristics. Overall, this research contributes to a better understanding of convective precipitation forecasting and underscores the need for cautious interpretation of model outputs, along with potential future applications in ensemble forecasting endeavors.
