A Statistical Measure of Core Inflation

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis A Statistical Measure of Core Inflation by : Aidan Meyler

Download or read book A Statistical Measure of Core Inflation written by Aidan Meyler and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation

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Author :
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1428988777
Total Pages : 520 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (289 download)

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Book Synopsis Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation by : Robert Rich

Download or read book Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation written by Robert Rich and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2008-04 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ability of central banks to differentiate between permanent & transitory price movements is critical for the conduct of monetary policy. The importance of gauging the persistence of price changes has led to the development of measures of underlying, or ¿core,¿ inflation that are designed to remove transitory price changes from aggregate inflation data. This article examines several proposed measures of core inflation -- the ex food & energy series, an ex energy series, a weighted median series, & an exponentially smoothed series -- to identify a ¿best¿ measure. Evaluates the measures¿ performance according to criteria such as ease of design, & accuracy in tracking trend inflation. Charts & tables.

Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them by : Mick Silver

Download or read book Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them written by Mick Silver and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-04 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an overview of statistical measurement issues relating to alternative measures of core inflation, and the criteria for choosing among them. The approaches to measurement considered include exclusion-based methods, imputation methods, limited influence estimators, reweighting, and economic modeling. Criteria for judging which approach to use include credibility, control, deviations from a smoothed reference series, volatility, predictive ability, causality and cointegration tests, and correlation with money supply. Country practice can differ in how the approaches are implemented and how their appropriateness is assessed. There is little consistency in the results of country studies to readily suggest guidelines on accepted methods.

Weighted Median Inflation Around the World: A Measure of Core Inflation

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Weighted Median Inflation Around the World: A Measure of Core Inflation by : Laurence M. Ball

Download or read book Weighted Median Inflation Around the World: A Measure of Core Inflation written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-02-24 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard measure of core or underlying inflation is the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices. This paper constructs an alternative measure, the weighted median inflation rate, for 38 advanced and emerging economies using subclass level disaggretion of the CPI over 1990-2021, and compares the properties of this measure to those of standard core. For quarterly data, we find that the weighted median is less volatile than standard core, more closely related to economic slack, and more closely related to headline inflation over the next year. The weighted median also has a drawback: in most countries, it has a lower average level than headline inflation. We therefore also consider a measure of core inflation that eliminates this bias, which is based on the percentile of sectoral inflation rates that matches the sample average of headline CPI inflation.

Measuring Core Inflation

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Measuring Core Inflation by : Danny Quah

Download or read book Measuring Core Inflation written by Danny Quah and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many alternative measures of core, or underlying, inflation have been proposed that are based on stripping out some unwanted or excessively volatile elements from the headline rate. A potential drawback of such measures is that they are necessarily atheoretic--based largely on purely statistical procedures. This paper proposes an alternative method of measuring core inflation utilizing an explicit economic definition. It defines core inflation as that part of measured inflation that has no medium or long term impact on real output--a notion that is consistent with the vertical long-run Phillips curve. This definition captures the commonly held view that moderate movements in inflation can have no impact on the real economy once financial and wage contracts have been written taking it into account. Using this definition the paper estimates a measure of core inflation using the VAR identification technique developed by Blanchard and Quah. The estimated measure indicates that core inflation was higher than measured inflation in the early 80s suggesting that measured inflation was depressed by beneficial supply shocks. The opposite effect occurred in the late 80s. Currently, core inflation is above measured inflation.

A Volatility and Persistence-Based Core Inflation

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484387813
Total Pages : 19 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis A Volatility and Persistence-Based Core Inflation by : Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho

Download or read book A Volatility and Persistence-Based Core Inflation written by Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intuitively core inflation is understood as a measure of inflation where noisy price movements are avoided. This is typically achieved by either excluding or downplaying the importance of the most volatile items. However, some of those items show high persistence, and one certainly does not want to disregard persistent price changes. The non-equivalence between volatility and (the lack of) persistence implies that when one excludes volatile items relevant information is likely to be discarded. Therefore, we propose a new type of core inflation measure, one that takes simultaneously into account both volatility and persistence. The evidence shows that such measures far outperform those based on either volatility or persistence. The latter have been advocated in the literature in recent years.

Inflation

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Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226313255
Total Pages : 302 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation by : Robert E. Hall

Download or read book Inflation written by Robert E. Hall and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-05-15 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the latest thoughts of a brilliant group of young economists on one of the most persistent economic problems facing the United States and the world, inflation. Rather than attempting an encyclopedic effort or offering specific policy recommendations, the contributors have emphasized the diagnosis of problems and the description of events that economists most thoroughly understand. Reflecting a dozen diverse views—many of which challenge established orthodoxy—they illuminate the economic and political processes involved in this important issue.

Inflation Expectations

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Measuring U.S. Core Inflation: The Stress Test of COVID-19

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616357584
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (163 download)

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Book Synopsis Measuring U.S. Core Inflation: The Stress Test of COVID-19 by : Laurence M. Ball

Download or read book Measuring U.S. Core Inflation: The Stress Test of COVID-19 written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-12-17 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Large price changes in industries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have caused erratic fluctuations in the U.S. headline inflation rate. This paper compares alternative approaches to filtering out the transitory effects of these industry price changes and measuring the underlying or core level of inflation over 2020-2021. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of core, the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices (XFE), has performed poorly: over most of 2020-21, it is almost as volatile as headline inflation. Measures of core that exclude a fixed set of additional industries, such as the Atlanta Fed’s sticky-price inflation rate, have been less volatile, but the least volatile have been measures that filter out large price changes in any industry, such as the Cleveland Fed’s median inflation rate and the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean inflation rate. These core measures have followed smooth paths, drifting down when the economy was weak in 2020 and then rising as the economy has rebounded. Overall, we find that the case for the Federal Reserve to move away from the traditional XFE measure of core has strengthened during 2020-21.

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies

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Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464813760
Total Pages : 513 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies by : Jongrim Ha

Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

The Great Inflation

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Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226066959
Total Pages : 545 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (26 download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Inflation by : Michael D. Bordo

Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

Relative Prices, Inflation and Core Inflation

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Relative Prices, Inflation and Core Inflation by : Scott Roger

Download or read book Relative Prices, Inflation and Core Inflation written by Scott Roger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-03 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Central banks concerned with inflation performance almost invariably seek to distinguish between a generalized or persistent component of the measured aggregate rate of inflation-driven by demand pressures and expectations-and supply-driven, essentially transitory inflation developments associated with movements in relative prices. The more generalized, persistent element - usually described as core or underlying inflation - is regarded as a legitimate monetary policy concern, while the influence of specific relative price developments are generally regarded as transient distortions that should be largely ignored in forward-looking policy setting, as well as in backward-looking assessment of policy performance.

Core Inflation

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Core Inflation by : Mark A. Wynne

Download or read book Core Inflation written by Mark A. Wynne and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Consumer Price Index Manual, 2020

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Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781484354841
Total Pages : 509 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (548 download)

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Book Synopsis Consumer Price Index Manual, 2020 by : Brian Graf

Download or read book Consumer Price Index Manual, 2020 written by Brian Graf and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-11-19 with total page 509 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Consumer Price Index Manual: Concepts and Methods contains comprehensive information and explanations on compiling a consumer price index (CPI). The Manual provides an overview of the methods and practices national statistical offices (NSOs) should consider when making decisions on how to deal with the various problems in the compilation of a CPI. The chapters cover many topics. They elaborate on the different practices currently in use, propose alternatives whenever possible, and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative. The primary purpose of the Manual is to assist countries in producing CPIs that reflect internationally recommended methods and practices.

The Winner-Take-All Society

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Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0140259953
Total Pages : 289 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (42 download)

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Book Synopsis The Winner-Take-All Society by : Robert Frank

Download or read book The Winner-Take-All Society written by Robert Frank and published by Penguin. This book was released on 1996-09-01 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Disney chairman Michael Eisner topped the 1993 Business Week chart of America's highest-paid executives, his $203 million in earnings roughly 10,000 times that of the lowest paid Disney employee. During the last two decades, the top one percent of U.S. earners captured more than 40 percent of the country's total earnings growth, one of the largest shifts any society has endured without a revolution or military defeat. Robert H. Frank and Philip J. Cook argue that behind this shift lies the spread of "winner-take-all markets"—markets in which small differences in performance give rise to enormous differences in reward. Long familiar in sports and entertainment, this payoff pattern has increasingly permeated law, finance, fashion, publishing, and other fields. The result: in addition to the growing gap between rich and poor, we see important professions like teaching and engineering in aching need of more talent. This relentless emphasis on coming out on top—the best-selling book, the blockbuster film, the Super Bowl winner—has molded our discourse in ways that many find deeply troubling.

A Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis A Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation by : Robert W. Rich

Download or read book A Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation written by Robert W. Rich and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ability of central banks to differentiate between permanent and transitory price movements is critical for the conduct of monetary policy. The importance of gauging the persistence of price changes in a timely manner has led to the development of measures of underlying, or core, inflation that are designed to remove transitory price changes from aggregate inflation data. Given the usefulness of this information to policymakers, there is a surprising lack of consensus on a preferred measure of U.S. core inflation. This article examines several proposed measures of core inflation - the popular ex food and energy series, an ex energy series, a weighted median series, and an exponentially smoothed series - to identify a best measure. The authors evaluate the measures' performance according to criteria such as ease of design and accuracy in tracking trend inflation, as well as explanatory content for within-sample and out-of-sample movements in aggregate CPI and PCE inflation. The study reveals that the candidate series perform very differently across aggregate inflation measures, criteria, and sample periods. The authors therefore find no compelling evidence to focus on one particular measure of core inflation, including the series that excludes food and energy prices. They attribute their results to the design of the individual measures and the measures' inability to account for variability in the nature and sources of transitory price movements.

Toward a More Accurate Measure of the Cost of Living

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 212 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Toward a More Accurate Measure of the Cost of Living by : United States. Congress. Senate. Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index

Download or read book Toward a More Accurate Measure of the Cost of Living written by United States. Congress. Senate. Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: