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A Primer For Risk Measurement Of Bonded Debt From The Perspective Of A Sovereign Debt Manager
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Book Synopsis A Primer for Risk Measurement of Bonded Debt from the Perspective of a Sovereign Debt Manager by : Michael G. Papaioannou
Download or read book A Primer for Risk Measurement of Bonded Debt from the Perspective of a Sovereign Debt Manager written by Michael G. Papaioannou and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-08 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents some conventional and new measures of market, credit, and liquidity risks for government bonds. These measures are analyzed from the perspective of a sovereign's debt manager. In particular, it examines duration, convexity, M-square, skewness, kurtosis, and VaR statistics as measures of interest rate exposure; a VaR statistic as the prominent measure of exchange rate exposure; the balance sheet approach (or contingent claims approach), and its consequent probability of default as the most promising measure of credit risk exposure; and an elasticity approach and a VaR statistic to measure liquidity risk. Along with the formulas for the various statistics proposed, we provide simple examples of their application to some common risk valuation cases. Finally, we present an integrated approach for the simultaneous estimation of a portfolio's interest rate and exchange rate risk using the VaR methodology. The integrated approach is then extended to also include N risk factors. This approach allows us to measure the total risk of a portfolio, provided that the volatilities and correlations among the risk factors can be estimated.
Book Synopsis IMF Working Papers by : Michael G. Papaioannou
Download or read book IMF Working Papers written by Michael G. Papaioannou and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks by : Thordur Jonasson
Download or read book A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks written by Thordur Jonasson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-06 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.
Download or read book Sovereign Debt written by Rob Quail and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-02-25 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An intelligent analysis of the dangers, opportunities, and consequences of global sovereign debt Sovereign debt is growing internationally at a terrifying rate, as nations seek to prop up their collapsing economies. One only needs to look at the sovereign risk pressures faced by Greece, Spain, and Ireland to get an idea of how big this problem has become. Understanding this dilemma is now more important than ever, that's why Robert Kolb has compiled Sovereign Debt. With this book as your guide, you'll gain a better perspective on the essential issues surrounding sovereign debt and default through discussions of national defaults, systemic risk, associated costs, and much more. Historical studies are also included to provide a realistic framework of reference. Contains up-to-date research and analysis on sovereign debt from today's leading practitioners and academics Details the dangers of defaults and their associated systemic risks Explores the past, present, and future of sovereign debt The repercussions of a national default are all-encompassing as global markets are intricately interwoven in the modern world. Sovereign Debt examines what it will take to overcome the challenges of this market and how you can deal with the uncertainty surrounding it.
Book Synopsis Sovereign Risk and Asset and Liability Management by : Mr.Udaibir S Das
Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Asset and Liability Management written by Mr.Udaibir S Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-04 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Country practices towards managing financial risks on a sovereign balance sheet continue to evolve. Each crisis period, and its legacy on sovereign balance sheets, reaffirms the need for strengthening financial risk management. This paper discusses some salient features embedded in in the current generation of sovereign asset and liability management (SALM) approaches, including objectives, definitions of relevant assets and liabilities, and methodologies used in obtaining optimal SALM outcomes. These elements are used in developing an analytical SALM framework which could become an operational instrument in formulating asset management and debtor liability management strategies at the sovereign level. From a portfolio perspective, the SALM approach could help detect direct and derived sovereign risk exposures. It allows analyzing the financial characteristics of the balance sheet, identifying sources of costs and risks, and quantifying the correlations among these sources of risk. The paper also outlines institutional requirements in implementing an SALM framework and seeks to lay the ground for further policy and analytical work on this topic.
Book Synopsis Sovereign Bond Prices, Haircuts and Maturity by : Mr.Tamon Asonuma
Download or read book Sovereign Bond Prices, Haircuts and Maturity written by Mr.Tamon Asonuma and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-22 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rejecting a common assumption in the sovereign debt literature, we document that creditor losses (“haircuts”) during sovereign restructuring episodes are asymmetric across debt instruments. We code a comprehensive dataset on instrument-specific haircuts for 28 debt restructurings with private creditors in 1999–2015 and find that haircuts on shorter-term debt are larger than those on debt of longer maturity. In a standard asset pricing model, we show that increasing short-run default risk in the run-up to a restructuring episode can explain the stylized fact. The data confirms the predicted relation between perceived default risk, bond prices, and haircuts by maturity.
Book Synopsis Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk by : Mr.Leonardo Martinez
Download or read book Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk written by Mr.Leonardo Martinez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a modification to a baseline sovereign default framework that allows us to quantify the importance of debt dilution in accounting for the level and volatility of the interest rate spread paid by sovereigns. We measure the effects of debt dilution by comparing the simulations of the baseline model (with debt dilution) with the ones of the modified model without dilution. We calibrate the baseline model to mimic the mean and standard deviation of the spread, as well as the external debt level, the mean debt duration and a measure of default frequency in the data. We find that, even without commitment to future repayment policies and withoutcontingency of sovereign debt, if the sovereign could eliminate debt dilution, the number of default per 100 years decreases from 3.10 to 0.42. The mean spread decreases from 7.38% to 0.57%. The standard deviation of the spread decreases from 2.45 to 0.72. Default risk falls in part because of a reduction of the level of sovereign debt (36% of the face value and of 11% of the market value). But we show that the most important effect of dilution on default risk results from a shift in the set of government's borrowing opportunities. Our analysis is also relevant for the study of other credit markets where the debt dilution problem could be present.
Book Synopsis A Comprehensive Approach to Measuring the Relation Between Systemic Risk Exposure and Sovereign Debt by : Michael S. Pagano
Download or read book A Comprehensive Approach to Measuring the Relation Between Systemic Risk Exposure and Sovereign Debt written by Michael S. Pagano and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using an integrated model to control for simultaneity, as well as new risk measurement techniques such as Adapted Exposure CoVaR and Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), we show that the aggregate systemic risk exposure of financial institutions is positively related to sovereign debt yields in European countries in an episodic manner, varying positively with the intensity of the financial crisis facing a particular nation. We find evidence of a simultaneous relation between systemic risk exposure and sovereign debt yields. This suggests that models of sovereign debt yields should also include the systemic risk of a country's financial system in order to avoid potentially important mis-specification errors. We find evidence that systemic risk of a country's financial institutions and the risk of sovereign governments are inter-related and shocks to these domestic linkages are stronger and longer lasting than international risk spillovers. Thus, the channel in which domestic sovereign debt yields can be affected by another nation's sovereign debt is mostly an indirect one in that shocks to a foreign country's government finances are transmitted to that country's financial system which, in turn, can spill over to the domestic financial system and, ultimately, have a destabilizing effect on the domestic sovereign debt market.
Book Synopsis Non-Defaultable Debt and Sovereign Risk by : Mr.Juan Carlos Hatchondo
Download or read book Non-Defaultable Debt and Sovereign Risk written by Mr.Juan Carlos Hatchondo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-28 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We quantify gains from introducing non-defaultable debt as a limited additional financing option into a model of equilibrium sovereign risk. We find that, for an initial (defaultable) sovereign debt level equal to 66 percent of trend aggregate income and a sovereign spread of 2.9 percent, introducing the possibility of issuing non-defaultable debt for up to 10 percent of aggregate income reduces immediately the spread to 1.4 percent, and implies a welfare gain equivalent to a permanent consumption increase of 0.9 percent. The spread reduction would be only 0.1 (0.2) percentage points higher if the government uses nondefaultable debt to buy back (finance a “voluntary” debt exchange for) previously issued defaultable debt. Without restrictions to defaultable debt issuances in the future, the spread reduction achieved by the introduction of non-defaultable debt is short lived. We also show that allowing governments in default to increase non-defaultable debt is damaging at the time non-defaultable debt is introduced and inconsequential in the medium term. These findings shed light on different aspects of proposals to introduce common euro-area sovereign bonds that could be virtually non-defaultable.
Book Synopsis Managing Foreign Exchange Rate Risk: Capacity Development for Public Debt Managers in Emerging Market and Low-Income Countries by : Thordur Jonasson
Download or read book Managing Foreign Exchange Rate Risk: Capacity Development for Public Debt Managers in Emerging Market and Low-Income Countries written by Thordur Jonasson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-08-02 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents some sound practices for foreign-currency risk management in developing countries and outlines instruments for managing sovereign debt portfolio currency exposures. Adoption of a debt management strategy with well-defined targets for foreign exchange risk is a critical element of public debt risk management. To this end, public debt managers often need to face with complex strategic and operational matters related to public debt hedging practices, including the use of derivatives. In this context, we highlight the main institutional challenges in the management of foreign exchange risk in sovereign debt portfolios and discuss the overall implementation of a foreign exchange risk-management strategy.
Book Synopsis Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 by : Mr.Udaibir S. Das
Download or read book Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 written by Mr.Udaibir S. Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
Book Synopsis A Primer on Sovereign Debt Buybacks and Swaps by : Carlos I. Medeiros
Download or read book A Primer on Sovereign Debt Buybacks and Swaps written by Carlos I. Medeiros and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-03 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper sets forth some basic principles that could help debt managers in emerging market and other countries to plan and implement sovereign debt buyback and swap operations. It discusses the macroeconomic context in which buybacks and swaps are undertaken, the objectives of buybacks and swaps, the analytical framework for deciding whether to undertake a particular buyback or swap operation and for selecting among alternative operations, and some key issues in the determination of the strategy for executing buybacks and swaps. The focus is on developing the analytical framework for evaluating sovereign debt buyback and swap operations, since very little work has been done in this area. In this regard, the paper presents a step-wise decision-making procedure, in which discounted cash flow analysis and the use of strategic benchmarks for the debt play central roles.
Download or read book Sovereign Debt written by S. Ali Abbas and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-10-21 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.
Book Synopsis Credit, Currency or Derivatives by : Michael G. Papaioannou
Download or read book Credit, Currency or Derivatives written by Michael G. Papaioannou and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2009-11-13 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contains original papers that examine various issues concerning the role, the structure and functioning of credit, currency and derivatives instruments and markets as they relate to financial crises. This title stresses the importance of the inter-linkages of these instruments and markets in promoting or hindering financial stability or crises.
Book Synopsis A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data by : Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia
Download or read book A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data written by Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In this paper we study the question of debt sustainability from a risk management perspective. The debt accumulation equation for any country involves variables that are stochastic and closely intertwined. When these aspects are taken into consideration the notion of debt sustainability is expanded to studying the stochastic properties of the debt dynamics. We illustrate the methodology by studying the Brazilian case. We find that even though the debt could be sustainable in the absence of risk, there are paths in which it is clearly unsustainable. Furthermore, we show that properties of the debt dynamics are closely related to the spreads on sovereign dollar denominated debt"--NBER website
Book Synopsis Risk Management in the Face of Risky Sovereign Debt by : Thomas C. Wilson
Download or read book Risk Management in the Face of Risky Sovereign Debt written by Thomas C. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper was presented at the panel session entitled “Risk managers on default probability for prime sovereigns”, held during the seminar on sovereign risk hosted by the BIS in January 2013.Full publication: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2420000" Sovereign Risk: A World Without Risk-Free Assets?
Book Synopsis Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk by : Juan Carlos Hatchondo
Download or read book Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk written by Juan Carlos Hatchondo and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
