Economic Forecasting

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400880890
Total Pages : 567 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott

Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 567 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike

Systematic Investing in Credit

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119751284
Total Pages : 742 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis Systematic Investing in Credit by : Arik Ben Dor

Download or read book Systematic Investing in Credit written by Arik Ben Dor and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-12-10 with total page 742 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for SYSTEMATIC INVESTING in CREDIT "Lev and QPS continue to shed light on the most important questions facing credit investors. This book focuses on their latest cutting-edge research into the appropriate role of credit as an asset class, the dynamics of credit benchmarks, and potential ways to benefit from equity information to construct effective credit portfolios. It is must-read material for all serious credit investors." —Richard Donick, President and Chief Risk Officer, DCI, LLC, USA "Lev Dynkin and his team continue to spoil us; this book is yet another example of intuitive, insightful, and pertinent research, which builds on the team's previous research. As such, the relationship with this team is one of the best lifetime learning experiences I have had." —Eduard van Gelderen, Chief Investment Officer, Public Sector Pension Investment Board, Canada "The rise of a systematic approach in credit is a logical extension of the market's evolution and long overdue. Barclays QPS team does a great job of presenting its latest research in a practical manner." —David Horowitz, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer, Agilon Capital, USA "Systematization reduces human biases and wasteful reinventing of past solutions. It improves the chances of investing success. This book, by a team of experts, shows you the way. You will gain insights into the advanced methodologies of combining fundamental and market data. I recommend this book for all credit investors." —Lim Chow Kiat, Chief Executive Officer, GIC Asset Management, Singapore "For nearly two decades, QPS conducted extensive and sound research to help investors meet industry challenges. The proprietary research in this volume gives a global overview of cutting-edge developments in alpha generation for credit investors, from signal extraction and ESG considerations to portfolio implementation. The book blazes a trail for enhanced risk adjusted returns by exploring the cross-asset relation between stocks and bonds and adding relevant information for credit portfolio construction. Our core belief at Ostrum AM, is that a robust quantamental approach, yields superior investment outcomes. Indeed, this book is a valuable read for the savvy investor." —Ibrahima Kobar, CFA, Global Chief Investment Officer, Ostrum AM, France "This book offers a highly engaging account of the current work by the Barclays QPS Group. It is a fascinating mix of original ideas, rigorous analytical techniques, and fundamental insights informed by a long history of frontline work in this area. This is a must-read from the long-time leaders in the field." —Professor Leonid Kogan, Nippon Telephone and Telegraph Professor of Management and Finance, MIT "This book provides corporate bond portfolio managers with an abundance of relevant, comprehensive, data-driven research for the implementation of superior investment performance strategies." —Professor Stanley J. Kon, Editor, Journal of Fixed income "This book is a treasure trove for both pension investors and trustees seeking to improve performance through credit. It provides a wealth of empirical evidence to guide long-term allocation to credit, optimize portfolio construction and harvest returns from systematic credit factors. By extending their research to ESG ratings, the authors also provide timely insights in the expanding field of sustainable finance." —Eloy Lindeijer, former Chief of Investment Management, PGGM, Netherlands "Over more than a decade, Lev Dynkin and his QPS team has provided me and APG with numerous innovative insights in credit markets. Their work gave us valuable quantitative substantiation of some of our investment beliefs. This book covers new and under-researched areas of our markets, like ESG and factor investing, next to the rigorous and practical work akin to the earlier work of the group. I'd say read this book—and learn from one of the best." —Herman Slooijer, Managing Director, Head of Fixed Income, APG Asset Management, Netherlands

Factor Investing and Asset Allocation: A Business Cycle Perspective

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Author :
Publisher : CFA Institute Research Foundation
ISBN 13 : 1944960155
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (449 download)

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Book Synopsis Factor Investing and Asset Allocation: A Business Cycle Perspective by : Vasant Naik

Download or read book Factor Investing and Asset Allocation: A Business Cycle Perspective written by Vasant Naik and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2016-12-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

World Business Cycles

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Author :
Publisher : Economist Newspaper Limited
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 198 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis World Business Cycles by : Economist Newspaper Limited

Download or read book World Business Cycles written by Economist Newspaper Limited and published by Economist Newspaper Limited. This book was released on 1982 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Modern Multi-Factor Analysis of Bond Portfolios

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Author :
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1137564865
Total Pages : 137 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (375 download)

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Book Synopsis Modern Multi-Factor Analysis of Bond Portfolios by : Giovanni Barone-Adesi

Download or read book Modern Multi-Factor Analysis of Bond Portfolios written by Giovanni Barone-Adesi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-03 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Where institutions and individuals averagely invest the majority of their assets in money-market and fixed-income instruments, interest rate risk management could be seen as the single most important global financial issue. However, the majority of the key techniques used by most investors were developed several decades ago, and the advantages of multi-factor models are not fully recognised by many researchers and practitioners. This book provides clear and practical insight into bond portfolios and portfolio management through key empirical analysis. The authors use extensive sets of empirical data to describe the value potentially added by more recent techniques to manage interest rate risk relative to traditional techniques and to present empirical evidence of such an added value. Beginning with a description of the simplest models and moving on to the most complex, the authors offer key recommendations for the future of rate risk management.

Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400829232
Total Pages : 497 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing by : Kenneth J. Singleton

Download or read book Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing written by Kenneth J. Singleton and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-12-13 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by one of the leading experts in the field, this book focuses on the interplay between model specification, data collection, and econometric testing of dynamic asset pricing models. The first several chapters provide an in-depth treatment of the econometric methods used in analyzing financial time-series models. The remainder explores the goodness-of-fit of preference-based and no-arbitrage models of equity returns and the term structure of interest rates; equity and fixed-income derivatives prices; and the prices of defaultable securities. Singleton addresses the restrictions on the joint distributions of asset returns and other economic variables implied by dynamic asset pricing models, as well as the interplay between model formulation and the choice of econometric estimation strategy. For each pricing problem, he provides a comprehensive overview of the empirical evidence on goodness-of-fit, with tables and graphs that facilitate critical assessment of the current state of the relevant literatures. As an added feature, Singleton includes throughout the book interesting tidbits of new research. These range from empirical results (not reported elsewhere, or updated from Singleton's previous papers) to new observations about model specification and new econometric methods for testing models. Clear and comprehensive, the book will appeal to researchers at financial institutions as well as advanced students of economics and finance, mathematics, and science.

Financial Markets and the Real Economy

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Author :
Publisher : Now Publishers Inc
ISBN 13 : 1933019158
Total Pages : 117 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Markets and the Real Economy by : John H. Cochrane

Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.

Bond Portfolio Investing and Risk Management

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Author :
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN 13 : 0071713255
Total Pages : 321 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (717 download)

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Book Synopsis Bond Portfolio Investing and Risk Management by : Vineer Bhansali

Download or read book Bond Portfolio Investing and Risk Management written by Vineer Bhansali and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2010-09-17 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn the fine art of risk measurement and control—from a senior member of PIMCO! Bond Portfolio Investing and Risk Management is designed for one purpose—to help you do the most important part of your job. A top player in the upper echelon of PIMCO, Vineer Bhansali understands the nuances and complexities of managing risk in fixed-income investing better than anyone. In this highly practical guide, he puts his years of experience and the latest research to work in order to help you contend with such issues as: Liquidity and stress risks Asset allocation Market anomalies Cross-market relationships Tail-risk measurement Cyclical returns Macroeconomic data Bond Portfolio Investing and Risk Management details the tools used to offset risk, including their advantages and drawbacks, and explains when to use each one. Bhansali provides practical investment techniques to give you a firm handle on the value and risk of a fixed-income instrument.

Bond Pricing and Yield Curve Modeling

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 1107165857
Total Pages : 781 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Bond Pricing and Yield Curve Modeling by : Riccardo Rebonato

Download or read book Bond Pricing and Yield Curve Modeling written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by . This book was released on 2018-06-07 with total page 781 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rebonato provides an authoritative, clear, and up-to-date explanation of the cutting-edge innovations in affine modeling for government bonds, and provides readers with the precise tools to develop their own models. This book combines precise theory with up-to-date empirical evidence to build, with the minimum mathematical sophistication required for the task, a critical understanding of what drives the government bond market.

Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting

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Author :
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691146802
Total Pages : 223 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting by : Francis X. Diebold

Download or read book Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-15 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.

Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance

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Publisher : CFA Institute Research Foundation
ISBN 13 : 1944960619
Total Pages : 118 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (449 download)

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Book Synopsis Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance by : Roger G. Ibbotson

Download or read book Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance written by Roger G. Ibbotson and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2018 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classical and behavioral finance are often seen as being at odds, but the idea of “popularity” has been introduced as a way of reconciling the two approaches. Investors like or dislike various characteristics of securities for rational reasons (as in classical finance) or irrational reasons (as in behavioral finance), which makes the assets popular or unpopular. In the capital markets, popular (unpopular) securities trade at prices that are higher (lower) than they would be otherwise; hence, the shares may provide lower (higher) expected returns.This book builds on this idea and expands it in two major ways. First, it introduces a rigorous asset pricing model, the popularity asset pricing model (PAPM), which adds investor preferences for security characteristics other than the risk and expected return that are part of the capital asset pricing model. A major conclusion of the PAPM is that the expected return of any security is a linear function of not only its systematic risk (beta) but also of all security characteristics that investors care about. The other major contribution of the book is new empirical work that, while confirming the well-known premiums (such as size, value, and liquidity) in a popularity context, supports the popularity hypothesis on the basis of portfolios of stocks based on such characteristics as brand value, sustainable competitive advantage, and reputation. Popularity unifies the factors that affect price in classical finance with those that drive price in behavioral finance, thus creating a unifying theory or bridge between classical and behavioral finance.

Asset Management

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Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0199959323
Total Pages : 717 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (999 download)

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Book Synopsis Asset Management by : Andrew Ang

Download or read book Asset Management written by Andrew Ang and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2014 with total page 717 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stocks and bonds? Real estate? Hedge funds? Private equity? If you think those are the things to focus on in building an investment portfolio, Andrew Ang has accumulated a body of research that will prove otherwise. In this book, Ang upends the conventional wisdom about asset allocation by showing that what matters aren't asset class labels but the bundles of overlapping risks they represent.

Asset Pricing

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400829135
Total Pages : 552 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Asset Pricing by : John H. Cochrane

Download or read book Asset Pricing written by John H. Cochrane and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-04-11 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Winner of the prestigious Paul A. Samuelson Award for scholarly writing on lifelong financial security, John Cochrane's Asset Pricing now appears in a revised edition that unifies and brings the science of asset pricing up to date for advanced students and professionals. Cochrane traces the pricing of all assets back to a single idea—price equals expected discounted payoff—that captures the macro-economic risks underlying each security's value. By using a single, stochastic discount factor rather than a separate set of tricks for each asset class, Cochrane builds a unified account of modern asset pricing. He presents applications to stocks, bonds, and options. Each model—consumption based, CAPM, multifactor, term structure, and option pricing—is derived as a different specification of the discounted factor. The discount factor framework also leads to a state-space geometry for mean-variance frontiers and asset pricing models. It puts payoffs in different states of nature on the axes rather than mean and variance of return, leading to a new and conveniently linear geometrical representation of asset pricing ideas. Cochrane approaches empirical work with the Generalized Method of Moments, which studies sample average prices and discounted payoffs to determine whether price does equal expected discounted payoff. He translates between the discount factor, GMM, and state-space language and the beta, mean-variance, and regression language common in empirical work and earlier theory. The book also includes a review of recent empirical work on return predictability, value and other puzzles in the cross section, and equity premium puzzles and their resolution. Written to be a summary for academics and professionals as well as a textbook, this book condenses and advances recent scholarship in financial economics.

Portfolio Structuring and the Value of Forecasting

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Author :
Publisher : CFA Institute Research Foundation
ISBN 13 : 1944960090
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (449 download)

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Book Synopsis Portfolio Structuring and the Value of Forecasting by : Jacques Lussier

Download or read book Portfolio Structuring and the Value of Forecasting written by Jacques Lussier and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2016-10-10 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484363671
Total Pages : 22 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium by : Emanuel Kopp

Download or read book A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium written by Emanuel Kopp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-15 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.

Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484399137
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts by : Ms.Eva Jenkner

Download or read book Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts written by Ms.Eva Jenkner and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-30 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Studies have shown that markets may underprice sub-national governments’ risk on the implicit assumption that these entities would be bailed out by their central government in case of financial difficulties. However, the question of whether sovereigns pay a premium on their own borrowing as a result of (implicitly or explicitly) guaranteeing sub-entities’ debt has been explored only little. We use an event study approach with separate equations for two levels of government to test for a simultaneous increase in sovereign risk premia and decrease in sub-national risk premia—or a de facto transfer of risk from the latter to the former—on the day a sovereign bailout is announced. Using daily financial market data for Spain and its autonomous regions from January 2010 to June 2013, we find support for our risk transfer hypothesis. We estimate that the Spanish sovereign’s spread may have increased by around 70 basis points as a result of the central government’s support for fiscally distressed comunidades autónomas.

Advanced Bond Portfolio Management

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0471785768
Total Pages : 578 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (717 download)

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Book Synopsis Advanced Bond Portfolio Management by : Frank J. Fabozzi

Download or read book Advanced Bond Portfolio Management written by Frank J. Fabozzi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-03-08 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In order to effectively employ portfolio strategies that can control interest rate risk and/or enhance returns, you must understand the forces that drive bond markets, as well as the valuation and risk management practices of these complex securities. In Advanced Bond Portfolio Management, Frank Fabozzi, Lionel Martellini, and Philippe Priaulet have brought together more than thirty experienced bond market professionals to help you do just that. Divided into six comprehensive parts, Advanced Bond Portfolio Management will guide you through the state-of-the-art techniques used in the analysis of bonds and bond portfolio management. Topics covered include: General background information on fixed-income markets and bond portfolio strategies The design of a strategy benchmark Various aspects of fixed-income modeling that will provide key ingredients in the implementation of an efficient portfolio and risk management process Interest rate risk and credit risk management Risk factors involved in the management of an international bond portfolio Filled with in-depth insight and expert advice, Advanced Bond Portfolio Management is a valuable resource for anyone involved or interested in this important industry.