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A Comparative Analysis Of Hurricane Evacuation Traffic Conditions Using Static And Dynamic Traffic Assignments
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Book Synopsis A Comparative Analysis of Hurricane Evacuation Traffic Conditions Using Static and Dynamic Traffic Assignments by : Santosh K. Andem
Download or read book A Comparative Analysis of Hurricane Evacuation Traffic Conditions Using Static and Dynamic Traffic Assignments written by Santosh K. Andem and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Advances in System Dynamics and Control by : Azar, Ahmad Taher
Download or read book Advances in System Dynamics and Control written by Azar, Ahmad Taher and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2018-02-09 with total page 706 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Complex systems are pervasive in many areas of science. With the increasing requirement for high levels of system performance, complex systems has become an important area of research due to its role in many industries. Advances in System Dynamics and Control provides emerging research on the applications in the field of control and analysis for complex systems, with a special emphasis on how to solve various control design and observer design problems, nonlinear systems, interconnected systems, and singular systems. Featuring coverage on a broad range of topics, such as adaptive control, artificial neural network, and synchronization, this book is an important resource for engineers, professionals, and researchers interested in applying new computational and mathematical tools for solving the complicated problems of mathematical modeling, simulation, and control.
Book Synopsis Hurricane Evacuation Traffic Analysis and Operational Measures by : Douglas P. Zaragoza
Download or read book Hurricane Evacuation Traffic Analysis and Operational Measures written by Douglas P. Zaragoza and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Use and Comparison of Traffic Simulation Models in the Analysis of Emergency Evacuation Conditions by :
Download or read book Use and Comparison of Traffic Simulation Models in the Analysis of Emergency Evacuation Conditions written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The evacuation of vulnerable coastal areas in the event of an emergency such as an impending hurricane has become a significant safety issue due to the rapid growth of both permanent and tourist populations in these areas. Highway capacity has often not been upgraded in line with this demand growth. In the case of Hurricane Floyd in 1999, evacuations of areas of North and South Carolina resulted in several highly congested primary highways and, as a result, several states created Lane Reversal Plans for interstates and/or divided highways along evacuation routes. However, these plans were created with little data to rely on as to their efficiency. A major research study was funded by the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) to use simulation modeling to investigate the effects of the Interstate 40 Lane Reversal Plan on the evacuation of Wilmington and New Hanover County, North Carolina. In addition to the analysis of the effects of lane reversal, a side-by-side comparison of the CORSIM and VISSIM simulation models was performed on the highway network based on demand estimates provided by a demand study performed for the United States Army Corps of Engineers and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Analysis using CORSIM and VISSIM showed lane reversal to provide considerable capacity increases to traffic attempting to exit New Hanover County via Interstate 40, which had significantly increased throughput and decreased queues within New Hanover County in the event of large-scale evacuations.
Book Synopsis Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Traffic by : Haoqiang Fu
Download or read book Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Traffic written by Haoqiang Fu and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Little attention has been given to estimating dynamic travel demand in transportation planning in the past. However, when factors influencing travel are changing significantly over time - such as with an approaching hurricane - dynamic demand and the resulting variation in traffic flow on the network become important. In this study, dynamic travel demand models for hurricane evacuation were developed with two methodologies: survival analysis and sequential choice model. Using survival analysis, the time before evacuation from a pending hurricane is modeled with those that do not evacuate considered as censored observations. A Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-dependent variables and a Piecewise Exponential model were estimated. In the sequential choice model, the decision to evacuate in the face of an oncoming hurricane is considered as a series of binary choices over time. A sequential logit model and a sequential complementary log-log model were developed. Each model is capable of predicting the probability of a household evacuating at each time period before hurricane landfall as a function of the household's socio-economic characteristics, the characteristics of the hurricane (such as distance to the storm), and policy decisions (such as the issuing of evacuation orders). Three datasets were used in this study. They were data from southwest Louisiana collected following Hurricane Andrew, data from South Carolina collected following Hurricane Floyd, and stated preference survey data collected from the New Orleans area. Based on the analysis, the sequential logit model was found to be the best alternative for modeling dynamic travel demand for hurricane evacuation. The sequential logit model produces predictions which are superior to those of the current evacuation participation rate models with response curves. Transfer of the sequential logit model estimated on the Floyd data to the Andrew data demonstrated that the sequential logit model is capable of estimating dynamic travel demand in a different environment than the one in which it was estimated with reasonable accuracy. However, more study is required on the transferability of models of this type, as well as the development of procedures that would allow the updating of transferred model parameters to better reflect local evacuation behavior.
Book Synopsis An Operational Analysis of the Hampton Roads Hurricane Evacuation Traffic Control Plan by : Catherine C. McGhee
Download or read book An Operational Analysis of the Hampton Roads Hurricane Evacuation Traffic Control Plan written by Catherine C. McGhee and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Hampton Roads region of Virginia has developed a hurricane evacuation plan to facilitate the movement of large numbers of vehicles as they attempt to leave the region in advance of a storm. Although the plan considers many aspects of hurricane evacuation, this evaluation focuses on its impacts on traffic operations. A traffic control plan (TCP) was developed that describes the procedures to be followed in the event an evacuation is ordered. Ramps providing access to I-64 are designated as open or closed, and many are metered in an attempt to influence the route choice of evacuees and thereby balance the demand across available evacuation routes. Although considerable work has gone into the development of the TCP, it has not been evaluated from a microscopic perspective to determine the performance characteristics with respect to traffic flow. This study provides that microscopic analysis for the freeway portions of the evacuation routes. The evaluation found that under less severe hurricane conditions (Category 1 or 2), the TCP performs reasonably well under the assumptions made in this study. The most significant assumption made was that all background traffic, including individuals evacuating their homes but remaining within the region, will not use the interstates during the evacuation period. Although background traffic will likely exist, there was insufficient information available in this phase of the study to assign background traffic to the network in any reasonably accurate manner. As the intensity of the hurricane intensifies to a Category 3 or 4, the TCP begins to be less effective. Ramp metering rates, designed in the TCP to ensure free-flowing conditions on the interstate mainlines, result in significant queues at the ramps and back onto the arterial network. Under Category 4 conditions, these queues would likely result in gridlock throughout the arterial network and lead evacuees to search out alternative routes, possibly negatively impacting the performance of those routes as well. The evaluation concludes that lane reversal is warranted under any storm predicted to make landfall as a Category 4 or higher and should be strongly considered for any Category 3. The study further finds that when lane reversal is implemented, the ramp metering rates should be significantly increased to reduce ramp queuing and allow more efficient use of available mainline capacity. The recommendations offered in this report will help to ensure an efficient evacuation of vehicles from the Hampton Roads region, should one be required. The revised ramp metering strategies and guidance on the use of lane reversal will help to maximize the available capacity provided by the interstate routes. Assumptions made throughout the study could render the results uncertain. Background traffic using the interstate routes could add to the congestion reported here. In addition, conditions outside the bounds of the network modeled in this project could negatively impact evacuating vehicles leaving Hampton Roads.
Book Synopsis Introducing Uncertainty Into Evacuation Modeling Via Dynamic Traffic Assignment with Probabilistic Demand and Capacity Constraints by : Mustafa Anil Yazici
Download or read book Introducing Uncertainty Into Evacuation Modeling Via Dynamic Traffic Assignment with Probabilistic Demand and Capacity Constraints written by Mustafa Anil Yazici and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emergency evacuations are low-probability-high-consequence events that have attracted the attention of researchers since 1960s. An evacuation process can be triggered by various natural (hurricane, flood, tsunami etc.) and man-made (industrial accidents, terrorist attack etc.) events. Regardless of the threat, the nature of the evacuation process involves a very high utilization of the transportation network and searching for plans/strategies to move large number of people to a safe place in the shortest possible time. Researchers from different disciplines approach to the evacuation problem from different perspectives. Two major components of any evacuation event are estimation of the evacuation demand and traffic analysis to make planning inferences about the evacuation performance measures such as clearance time. Although related studies and real-life practices show a significant uncertainty regarding the evacuation demand due to the unpredictability of human behavior and changing roadway as a result of disaster impacts, the state-of-the-practice does not consider this type of randomness. This dissertation aims to address this important gap by proposing a dynamic traffic assignment formulation with probabilistic constraints that takes into account uncertainties in demand and roadway capacities. The proposed model uses a cell transmission model based system optimal dynamic traffic assignment formulation. The demand and roadway capacities are assumed to follow a discrete random distribution and the p-level efficient points approach [115] is employed to solve the proposed model. Two numerical examples regarding the use of the model are provided. The numerical examples also discuss the implications using individual chance constraints vs. joint chance constraints which provide different interpretations for the reliability of the results. Overall, the proposed formulation generates evacuation time performance measures that can be interpreted within reliability measures rather than single deterministic point estimates that would not be necessarily observed during a real life test, mainly due to high level of uncertainty created by human behavior and capacity impacts of the disaster.
Book Synopsis Hurricane Evacuation Modeling by : Lei Fang (Engineer)
Download or read book Hurricane Evacuation Modeling written by Lei Fang (Engineer) and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 119 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hurricane evacuation has attracted renewed emphasis since hurricane Katrina in 2005. Every coastal state is establishing their evacuation guidelines and searching new methods to improve evacuations. In this dissertation, first, hurricane evacuation of the Hampton Roads region of Virginia is investigated using large-scale regional mesoscopic traffic simulation models. Fourteen evacuation scenarios consisting of various combinations of storm categories and traffic control strategies are evaluated. The evaluation of scenarios provided information on the clearance time, average travel times, bottleneck locations, and congestion durations. The major findings from scenario evaluations include: (1) The differences in participation rates (100% versus 70%) did not impact the clearance times in a Category 1 storm evacuation, but have significant impact in a Category 3 storm evacuation, (2) The status (open or close) of a critical tunnel crossing, the Monitor-Merrimac Memorial Bridge-Tunnel did not have impact on the evacuation performance in Category 1 and 2 storm. However, opening the tunnel would improve the performance in a Category 3 storm, (3) The clearance times derived from simulations can be used to determine when to issue evacuation orders for various storm intensities, and (4) The bottleneck locations and durations identified for each evacuation scenario can be used to allocate the limited traffic monitoring equipment during an evacuation. The second focus of this dissertation is to investigate the impact of assumptions made regarding evacuee route choice on evacuation performance estimates. In the hurricane evacuation literature, very few studies have documented the realistic route choice behavior of evacuees during a hurricane. Due to this lack of realistic route choice behavior data, modelers make assumptions about the route choice behavior and traffic assignment. User-equilibrium traffic assignment has been extensively used in past evacuation studies. In this dissertation, realistic route choice behavior was determined by evaluating findings of a few published studies. The impact of route choice behavior on evacuation performance, especially travel times, is then investigated using the regional simulation model of the Hampton Roads region. The analysis found that the user-equilibrium traffic assignment significantly underestimates the travel times during an evacuation. The extent of underestimation of evacuation travel times depends on the total evacuation demand (a function of storm intensity), and the percent of evacuees willing to use en-route information to seek alternate routes when facing congestion. For the three en-route percentages reported in the literature i.e., 30%, 50%, and 70%, the UE travel times were 58%, 42%, and 33% lower than actual travel times realized in a Category 1; 94%, 71%, and 57% lower in a Category 2; and 90%, 69%, and 54% lower in a Category 3 evacuation. These findings illustrate the need to collect real-world data on evacuee route choice in order to build accurate evacuation models. The third focus of dissertation is to propose a procedure to assess the benefit of adding additional intermediate crossovers on a contra flow facility. Contra flow operation in which the direction of traffic on one or more travel lanes is reversed in order to increase the capacity of a road network is becoming a critical component of the evacuation plans of coastal states. Several coastal states have a contra flow plan in place for evacuation, however only a few states have intermediate crossovers between the origin and termination points. The impact of intermediate crossovers on network performance has not been well investigated in previous research. This dissertation investigates the benefits of having intermediate crossovers between regular and contra flow lanes. Based on the investigation, it can be concluded that adding intermediate crossovers did improve network performance for medium and high evacuation demand situations. Adding intermediate crossovers for low demand situations did not improve the network performance and thus any considerations for intermediate crossovers for the low demand evacuations must be based solely on providing access to road-side services (gas, food, and others). For high and medium demand situations and for the road network studied in this section, a 28% improvement in the average travel time was observed by deploying four intermediate crossovers out of the 44 potential crossover locations. The iterative elimination procedure proposed in this dissertation is the first attempt in the literature to provide a systematic approach to determine the critical intermediate crossover locations within reasonable computation times.
Book Synopsis Hurricane Evacuation Traffic Analysis and Operational Measures. Interim Technical Report by : Douglas P. Zaragoza
Download or read book Hurricane Evacuation Traffic Analysis and Operational Measures. Interim Technical Report written by Douglas P. Zaragoza and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Traffic by :
Download or read book Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Traffic written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Computer Simulation-based Framework for Transportation Evacuation in a Major Trip Generator by : Fengxiang Qiao
Download or read book Computer Simulation-based Framework for Transportation Evacuation in a Major Trip Generator written by Fengxiang Qiao and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since emergencies including both natural disasters and man-made incidents, are happening more and more frequently, evacuation, especially transportation evacuation, is becoming a hot research focus in recent years. Currently, transportation evacuation study focuses on evacuating people and property from large areas and does not address the problem of transportation evacuation in a small and dense area. This research is intended to identify the study framework of developing transportation evacuation plans in small and dense areas. Texas Medical Center (TMC), Houston, Texas, is selected as case study in this thesis. Incidents are assumed based on potential threats. Traffic information is collected through filed data collections in the TMC area, and evacuation scenarios with incidents and management improvements are coded and simulated in VISSIM, a microscopic traffic simulation model. Genetic Algorithm is one of the calibration methods for searching multiple parameters at the same time and is used in this thesis to calibrate parameters of driving behaviors in VISSIM by using field collected and simulation data. Based on the simulation results, potential improvements and measurement of effectiveness (MOE) of operations such as Reversed Lane (RL) and In-bound Shuttle (IS) are analyzed and evaluated. Simulation results show that the evacuation would be much more efficient if appropriate operational strategies are implemented. Proper management improvements such as Reversed Lane and In-bound Shuttle could greatly maximize the number of persons/vehicles evacuated in the area. The selected operational plan can efficiently evacuate all persons in the Texas Medical Center in suitable simulation scenario under a given incident assumption. The framework of developing transportation evacuation plan is tested and proven to be effective in the Texas Medical Center. The microscopic simulation based study process is targeted on small and dense areas and it can be used in any other similar areas. It is recommended that further work be conducted to form a comprehensive evacuation plan.
Book Synopsis Use and Comparison of Traffic Simulation Models in the Analysis of Emergency Evacuation Conditions by : Anthony Paul Tagliaferri
Download or read book Use and Comparison of Traffic Simulation Models in the Analysis of Emergency Evacuation Conditions written by Anthony Paul Tagliaferri and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Keywords: traffic simulation, emergency evacuation.
Book Synopsis Modeling Decision Making Related to Incident Delays During Hurricane Evacuations by : Robert Michael Robinson
Download or read book Modeling Decision Making Related to Incident Delays During Hurricane Evacuations written by Robert Michael Robinson and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Discrete Time Dynamic Traffic Assignment Models with Lane Reversals for Evacuation Planning by : Yeh-Ern Poh
Download or read book Discrete Time Dynamic Traffic Assignment Models with Lane Reversals for Evacuation Planning written by Yeh-Ern Poh and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Gravity Model in Transportation Analysis by : Sven Erlander
Download or read book The Gravity Model in Transportation Analysis written by Sven Erlander and published by VSP. This book was released on 1990-12 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analisi: TRASPORTI. In generale. ECONOMETRIA. Econometria applicata.
Book Synopsis Mathematical Models for Evacuation Planning in Urban Areas by : Sarah Bretschneider
Download or read book Mathematical Models for Evacuation Planning in Urban Areas written by Sarah Bretschneider and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-07-20 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Disasters like floods, hurricanes, chemical or nuclear accidents may cause the necessity to evacuate the affected area. The evacuation of the urban area needs to be planned carefully. One issue is the reorganization of the traffic routing. Congested urban areas have usually complex street networks that are composed of many intersections with streets connecting them. The population density of a congested urban area is usually high and the street network is already used to capacity during rush hour traffic. The considered problem of this work is the reorganization of the traffic routing of an urban area for the case of an emergency mass evacuation. Especially aspects of the evacuation like safety, avoidance of delays and the total system travel time are taken into account. Combinatorial and graph theoretical aspects are adapted for the evacuation problem and highlight issues concerning especially conflicts within intersections. This work gives an extensive summary of literature of evacuation of urban areas. Mixed-integer linear programming models are developed for evacuation problems and heuristic algorithms are provided and tested.?
Book Synopsis Proceedings of the 1992 International Emergency Management and Engineering Conference by : James D. Sullivan
Download or read book Proceedings of the 1992 International Emergency Management and Engineering Conference written by James D. Sullivan and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
