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Worker Heterogeneity Selection And Employment Dynamics In The Face Of Aggregate Demand And Pandemic Shocks
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Book Synopsis Worker Heterogeneity, Selection, and Employment Dynamics in the Face of Aggregate Demand and Pandemic Shocks by : Federico Ravenna
Download or read book Worker Heterogeneity, Selection, and Employment Dynamics in the Face of Aggregate Demand and Pandemic Shocks written by Federico Ravenna and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a new Keynesian model with random search in the labor market, endogenous selection among heterogeneous workers amplifies fluctuations in unemployment and results in excess unemployment volatility relative to the efficient allocation. Recessions disproportionately affect low-productivity workers, whose unemployment spells are inefficiently frequent and long. We consider a COVID-recession resulting from a negative demand shock and a surge in exogenous separations. High-productivity workers benefit if separations in a pandemic take the form of temporary layoffs, but this is not true for low-productivity workers. The unemployment consequences are especially severe when nominal interest rates are close to the effective lower bound.
Book Synopsis Skill Heterogeneity and Aggregate Labor Market Dynamics by : John R. Grigsby
Download or read book Skill Heterogeneity and Aggregate Labor Market Dynamics written by John R. Grigsby and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies aggregate labor market dynamics when workers have heterogeneous skills for tasks which are subject to non-uniform labor demand shocks. When workers have different skills, movements in aggregate wages partly reflect a reallocation of different workers across tasks and into employment. This ensures that there nearly always exists some combination of task-specific demand shocks that induce aggregate employment and wages to negatively comove even in a frictionless economy. Furthermore, such reallocations would be interpreted either as a labor wedge or as a shift in an aggregate labor supply curve in representative agent economies. Developing a method to estimate the multidimensional skill distribution, I show that a frictionless model with realistic heterogeneity can replicate the mean wage increase and employment collapse of the Great Recession. Reduced-form composition-adjustment methods recover positive co-movements between employment and wages in recent periods suggesting an increasing role for composition effects through time, which the model rationalizes through changes in the skill distribution and composition of sectoral shocks.
Book Synopsis The Short-Term Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets, Poverty and Inequality in Brazil by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book The Short-Term Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets, Poverty and Inequality in Brazil written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-05 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document the short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Brazilian labor market focusing on employment, wages and hours worked using the nationally representative household surveys PNAD-Continua and PNAD COVID. Sectors most susceptible to the shock because they are more contact-intensive and less teleworkable, such as construction, domestic services and hospitality, suffered large job losses and reductions in hours. Given low income workers experienced the largest decline in earnings, extreme poverty and the Gini coefficient based on labor income increased by around 9.2 and 5 percentage points, respectively, due to the immediate shock. The government’s broad based, temporary Emergency Aid transfer program more than offset the labor income losses for the bottom four deciles, however, such that poverty relative to the pre-COVID baseline fell. At a cost of around 4 percent of GDP in 2020 such support is not fiscally sustainable beyond the short-term and ended in late 2020. The challenge will be to avoid a sharp increase in poverty and inequality if the labor market does not pick up sufficiently fast in 2021.
Book Synopsis Banks, Firms, and Jobs by : Fabio Berton
Download or read book Banks, Firms, and Jobs written by Fabio Berton and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-02-14 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the employment effects of financial shocks using a rich data set of job contracts, matched with the universe of firms and their lending banks in one Italian region. To isolate the effect of the financial shock we construct a firm-specific time-varying measure of credit supply. The contraction in credit supply explains one fourth of the reduction in employment. This result is concentrated in more levered and less productive firms. Also, the relatively less educated and less skilled workers with temporary contracts are the most affected. Our results are consistent with the cleansing role of financial shocks.
Book Synopsis Supply and Demand Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefit Extensions: Evidence from U.S. Counties by : Klaus-Peter Hellwig
Download or read book Supply and Demand Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefit Extensions: Evidence from U.S. Counties written by Klaus-Peter Hellwig and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-12 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I use three decades of county-level data to estimate the effects of federal unemployment benefit extensions on economic activity. To overcome the reverse causality coming from the fact that benefit extensions are a function of state unemployment rates, I only use the within-state variation in outcomes to identify treatment effects. Identification rests on a differences-in-differences approach which exploits heterogeneity in county exposure to policy changes. To distinguish demand and supply-side channels, I estimate the model separately for tradable and non-tradable sectors. Finally I use benefit extensions as an instrument to estimate local fiscal multipliers of unemployment benefit transfers. I find (i) that the overall impact of benefit extensions on activity is positive, pointing to strong demand effects; (ii) that, even in tradable sectors, there are no negative supply-side effects from work disincentives; and (iii) a fiscal multiplier estimate of 1.92, similar to estimates in the literature for other types of spending.
Author :Martin Eichenbaum Publisher :University of Chicago Press Journals ISBN 13 :9780226577661 Total Pages :0 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (776 download)
Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017 by : Martin Eichenbaum
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017 written by Martin Eichenbaum and published by University of Chicago Press Journals. This book was released on 2018-05-22 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 32 of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual features six theoretical and empirical studies of important issues in contemporary macroeconomics, and a keynote address by former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard. In one study, SeHyoun Ahn, Greg Kaplan, Benjamin Moll, Thomas Winberry, and Christian Wolf examine the dynamics of consumption expenditures in non-representative-agent macroeconomic models. In another, John Cochrane asks which macro models most naturally explain the post-financial-crisis macroeconomic environment, which is characterized by the co-existence of low and nonvolatile inflation rates, near-zero short-term interest rates, and an explosion in monetary aggregates. Manuel Adelino, Antoinette Schoar, and Felipe Severino examine the causes of the lending boom that precipitated the recent U.S. financial crisis and Great Recession. Steven Durlauf and Ananth Seshadri investigate whether increases in income inequality cause lower levels of economic mobility and opportunity. Charles Manski explores the formation of expectations, considering the efficacy of directly measuring beliefs through surveys as an alternative to making the assumption of rational expectations. In the final research paper, Efraim Benmelech and Nittai Bergman analyze the sharp declines in debt issuance and the evaporation of market liquidity that coincide with most financial crises. Blanchard’s keynote address discusses which distortions are central to understanding short-run macroeconomic fluctuations.
Book Synopsis The Employment and Wage Effects of Oil Price Changes by : Mr.Eswar Prasad
Download or read book The Employment and Wage Effects of Oil Price Changes written by Mr.Eswar Prasad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-04-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we use micro panel data to examine the effects of oil price changes on employment and real wages, at the aggregate and industry levels. We also measure differences in the employment and wage responses for workers differentiated on the basis of skill level. We find that oil price increases result in a substantial decline in real wages for all workers, but raise the relative wage of skilled workers. The use of panel data econometric techniques to control for unobserved heterogeneity is essential to uncover this result, which is completely hidden in OLS estimates. We find that changes in oil prices induce changes in employment shares and relative wages across industries. However, we find little evidence that oil price changes cause labor to consistently flow into those sectors with relative wage increases.
Download or read book Making It Big written by Andrea Ciani and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-10-08 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic and social progress requires a diverse ecosystem of firms that play complementary roles. Making It Big: Why Developing Countries Need More Large Firms constitutes one of the most up-to-date assessments of how large firms are created in low- and middle-income countries and their role in development. It argues that large firms advance a range of development objectives in ways that other firms do not: large firms are more likely to innovate, export, and offer training and are more likely to adopt international standards of quality, among other contributions. Their particularities are closely associated with productivity advantages and translate into improved outcomes not only for their owners but also for their workers and for smaller enterprises in their value chains. The challenge for economic development, however, is that production does not reach economic scale in low- and middle-income countries. Why are large firms scarcer in developing countries? Drawing on a rare set of data from public and private sources, as well as proprietary data from the International Finance Corporation and case studies, this book shows that large firms are often born large—or with the attributes of largeness. In other words, what is distinct about them is often in place from day one of their operations. To fill the “missing top†? of the firm-size distribution with additional large firms, governments should support the creation of such firms by opening markets to greater competition. In low-income countries, this objective can be achieved through simple policy reorientation, such as breaking oligopolies, removing unnecessary restrictions to international trade and investment, and establishing strong rules to prevent the abuse of market power. Governments should also strive to ensure that private actors have the skills, technology, intelligence, infrastructure, and finance they need to create large ventures. Additionally, they should actively work to spread the benefits from production at scale across the largest possible number of market participants. This book seeks to bring frontier thinking and evidence on the role and origins of large firms to a wide range of readers, including academics, development practitioners and policy makers.
Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 by : World Bank
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Book Synopsis COVID-19 and Emerging Markets by : Cem Çakmaklı
Download or read book COVID-19 and Emerging Markets written by Cem Çakmaklı and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model to Turkey. Sectoral supply shocks are based on the proximity requirements in each sector and the ability to work from home. Physical proximity determines the supply shock through its effect on infection rates. Sectoral demand shocks incorporate domestic and foreign demand, both of which adjust with infection rates. We calibrate demand shocks during COVID-19 using real-time credit card purchase data. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest economic cost and saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under a full lockdown of 39 days. Economic costs are much larger for an open economy as the shocks are amplified through the international production network. A decline in foreign demand leads to losses in domestic sectors through international input-output linkages, accounting for a third of the total output loss. In addition, the reduction in capital flows deprives the network from its trade financing needs, where sectors with larger external finance needs experience larger losses. The policy options are limited given sparse fiscal resources to fight the pandemic domestically, while serving the external debt. We present historical evidence from 2001 crisis of Turkey, when fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies were employed altogether to deal with a triple crisis of balance of payments, banking, and sovereign debt
Book Synopsis The Long Shadow of Informality by : Franziska Ohnsorge
Download or read book The Long Shadow of Informality written by Franziska Ohnsorge and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2022-02-09 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging market and developing economies. This may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic--unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes--including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.
Book Synopsis The Housing Boom and Bust by : Thomas Sowell
Download or read book The Housing Boom and Bust written by Thomas Sowell and published by Basic Books (AZ). This book was released on 2009-05-12 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.
Book Synopsis A Mandate to Grow by : Eduardo A. Cavallo
Download or read book A Mandate to Grow written by Eduardo A. Cavallo and published by Inter-American Development Bank. This book was released on 2018-03-15 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2018 Macroeconomic Report, A Mandate to Grow, revisits the growth debate that has been raging in the region for the past half century. Viewing the debate from this long-term perspective allows for a focus on the structural factors that have prevented Latin America and the Caribbean from reaching the growth potential required to keep pace with faster growing regions and to fulfill the aspirations of its population.
Book Synopsis Labor Demand by : Daniel S. Hamermesh
Download or read book Labor Demand written by Daniel S. Hamermesh and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 1996-01-28 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book Daniel Hamermesh provides the first comprehensive picture of the disparate field of labor demand. The author reviews both the static and dynamic theories of labor demand, and provides evaluative summaries of the available empirical research in these two subject areas. Moreover, he uses both theory and evidence to establish a generalized framework for analyzing the impact of policies such as minimum wages, payroll taxes, job- security measures, unemployment insurance, and others. Covering every aspect of labor demand, this book uses material from a wide range of countries.
Book Synopsis OECD Employment Outlook 2020 by : Oecd
Download or read book OECD Employment Outlook 2020 written by Oecd and published by Org. for Economic Cooperation & Development. This book was released on 2020-08-18 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Short Time Working Arrangements as Response to Cyclical Fluctuations by : Alfonso Arpaia
Download or read book Short Time Working Arrangements as Response to Cyclical Fluctuations written by Alfonso Arpaia and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reviews and discusses the main characteristics of short-time schemes available in the EU. Highlights the risk that a prolonged use of short-time work supports the demand of declining sectors, eventually delaying their restructuring, especially when the costs of labour reallocation are low and the incentives to restructure high, because the opportunity costs of foregone output is lower in recessions than in booms.
Book Synopsis Mismatch Unemployment by : Aysegul Sahin
Download or read book Mismatch Unemployment written by Aysegul Sahin and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a framework where mismatch between vacancies and job seekers across sectors translates into higher unemployment by lowering the aggregate job-finding rate. We use this framework to measure the contribution of mismatch to the recent rise in U.S. unemployment by exploiting two sources of cross-sectional data on vacancies, JOLTS and HWOL, a new database covering the universe of online U.S. job advertisements. Mismatch across industries and occupations explains at most 1/3 of the total observed increase in the unemployment rate, whereas geographical mismatch plays no apparent role. The share of the rise in unemployment explained by occupational mismatch is increasing in the education level.
