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What Is The Risk Of European Sovereign Debt Defaults Fiscal Space Cds Spreads And Market Pricing Of Risk
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Book Synopsis What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? : fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk by : Joshua Aizenman
Download or read book What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? : fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk written by Joshua Aizenman and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate the pricing of sovereign risk for sixty countries based on fiscal space (debt/tax; deficits/tax) and other economic fundamentals over 2005-10. We measure how accurately the model predicts sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, focusing in particular on the five countries in the South-West Eurozone Periphery (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain). Dynamic panel estimates of the model suggest that fiscal space and other macroeconomic factors are statistically significant and economically important determinants of market-based sovereign risk. Although the explanatory power of fiscal space measures drop during the crisis, the TED spread, trade openness, external debt and inflation play a larger role. As expectations of market volatility jumped during the crisis, the weakly concavity of creditors' payoff probably accounts for the emergence of TED spread as a key pricing factor. However, risk-pricing of the South-West Eurozone Periphery countries is not predicted accurately by the model either in-sample or out-of-sample: unpredicted high spreads are evident during global crisis period, especially in 2010 when the sovereign debt crisis swept over the periphery area. We "match" the periphery group with five middle income countries outside Europe that were closest in terms of fiscal space during the European fiscal crisis. We find that Eurozone periphery default risk is priced much higher than the "matched" countries in 2010, even allowing for differences in fundamentals. One interpretation is that the market has mispriced risk in the Eurozone periphery. An alternative interpretation is that the market is pricing not on current fundamentals but future fundamentals, expecting the periphery fiscal space to deteriorate markedly and posing a high risk of debt restructuring. Adjustment challenges of the Eurozone periphery may be perceived as economically and politically more difficult than the matched group of middle income countrie.
Book Synopsis What is the Risk of European Sovereing Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space , CDS Spreads and Market Pricing of Risk by : Joshua Aizenman
Download or read book What is the Risk of European Sovereing Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space , CDS Spreads and Market Pricing of Risk written by Joshua Aizenman and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The World Scientific Handbook of Futures Markets by : Anastasios G. E. T. Al MALLIARIS
Download or read book The World Scientific Handbook of Futures Markets written by Anastasios G. E. T. Al MALLIARIS and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2015-08-06 with total page 844 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The World Scientific Handbook of Futures Markets serves as a definitive source for comprehensive and accessible information in futures markets. The emphasis is on the unique characteristics of futures markets that make them worthy of a special volume. In our judgment, futures markets are currently undergoing remarkable changes as trading is shifting from open outcry to electronic and as the traditional functions of hedging and speculation are extended to include futures as an alternative investment vehicle in traditional portfolios. The unique feature of this volume is the selection of five classic papers that lay the foundations of the futures markets and the invitation to the leading academics who do work in the area to write critical surveys in a dozen important topics."--$cProvided by publisher.
Book Synopsis The Risk of the Sovereign Debt Default by : Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos
Download or read book The Risk of the Sovereign Debt Default written by Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the relationship of the market pricing of sovereign risk to default, through CDS spreads for 16 Eurozone countries during 2008q1-2013q3. We take into account, through appropriate non-linear GMM estimations the endogeneity problem. We focus on “fiscal space” (DEBT or FISCAL), and the downgrade announcements (DOWN). We find DEBT (FISCAL) to have significant (insignificant) effects on the CDS concave function, as well as, DOWN in a linear one. It has also been confirmed significant pricing discrimination between South and West Euro Area Periphery (SWEAP) and the core Eurozone, highlighting asymmetries discovered either by the respective size of estimated DEBT coefficients or by the significant effects of DOWN that have only on CDS of SWEAP countries. The current account balance or the inflation rate, as well as, relevant interaction terms seem not to affect the spreads of the EMU. These findings, together with the estimated structural change on CDS pattern in early 2011, coinciding with significant either the DOWN in the pre-crisis period (2008-'10) or the DEBT in the post-crisis one (2011-'13) on the CDS, seem to be consistent with self-fulfilling crises literature and the inherent vulnerability of EMU, on other words, the “fragility hypothesis of the Eurozone”
Download or read book Sovereign Debt written by Rob Quail and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-02-25 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An intelligent analysis of the dangers, opportunities, and consequences of global sovereign debt Sovereign debt is growing internationally at a terrifying rate, as nations seek to prop up their collapsing economies. One only needs to look at the sovereign risk pressures faced by Greece, Spain, and Ireland to get an idea of how big this problem has become. Understanding this dilemma is now more important than ever, that's why Robert Kolb has compiled Sovereign Debt. With this book as your guide, you'll gain a better perspective on the essential issues surrounding sovereign debt and default through discussions of national defaults, systemic risk, associated costs, and much more. Historical studies are also included to provide a realistic framework of reference. Contains up-to-date research and analysis on sovereign debt from today's leading practitioners and academics Details the dangers of defaults and their associated systemic risks Explores the past, present, and future of sovereign debt The repercussions of a national default are all-encompassing as global markets are intricately interwoven in the modern world. Sovereign Debt examines what it will take to overcome the challenges of this market and how you can deal with the uncertainty surrounding it.
Book Synopsis Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus by : Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Download or read book Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-07 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
Book Synopsis Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe by : Mr.Frigyes F Heinz
Download or read book Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe written by Mr.Frigyes F Heinz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-28 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By analysing data from January 2007 to December 2012 in a panel GLS error correction framework we find that European countries’ sovereign CDS spreads are largely driven by global investor sentiment, macroeconomic fundamentals and liquidity conditions in the CDS market. But the relative importance of these factors changes over time. While during the 2008/09 crisis weak economic fundamentals (such as high current account decifit, worsening underlying fiscal balances, credit boom), a drop in liquidity and a spike in risk aversion contributed to high spreads in Central and Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries, a marked improvement in fundamentals (e.g. reduction in fiscal deficit, narrowing of current balances, gradual economic recovery) explains the region’s resilience to financial market spillovers during the euro area crisis. Our generalised variance decomposition analyisis does not suggest strong direct spillovers from the euro area periphery. The significant drop in the CDS spreads between July 2012 and December 2012 was mainly driven by a decline in risk aversion as suggested by the model’s out of sample forecasts.
Author :Ms.Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484368347 Total Pages :28 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Transmission of Financial Stress in Europe by : Ms.Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo
Download or read book Transmission of Financial Stress in Europe written by Ms.Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-02 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a stochastic volatility model to measure sovereign financial distress. It examines how key European sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads affect each other; specifically, the paper analyses the volatility structure of Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal. The stability of Germany is a close proxy for the resilience of the euro area as markets use Germany’s sovereign CDS as a hedge for systemic risk. Although most of the CDS changes for Germany during 2009–12 were due to idiosyncratic factors, market developments in Italy and Spain contributed significantly, likely due to their relative importance in the region. Changes in Greece’s sovereign CDS had no significant effect on Germany’s sovereign CDS despite initial widespread concerns about such linkages. Spain and Italy show a notable co-dependence in explaining each other’s volatility while Germany also plays an important role. It is found that extreme bad news led to persistent and nearly permanent effects on the stochastic volatility of European sovereign CDS spreads.
Book Synopsis Sovereign Default Risk Valuation by : Jochen Andritzky
Download or read book Sovereign Default Risk Valuation written by Jochen Andritzky and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-11-23 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Past cycles of sovereign lending and default suggest that debt crises will recur at some point. This book shows why investors should reckon with similar credit events in the future. Surveying the sovereign bond market, the author provides investors with a useful toolkit for analyzing sovereign bonds and foreseeing trends in the international financial architecture. The result should be a better understanding of debt crises and more deliberate investment decisions.
Book Synopsis The Pricing of Sovereign Risk and Contagion During the European Sovereign Debt Crisis by : John Beirne
Download or read book The Pricing of Sovereign Risk and Contagion During the European Sovereign Debt Crisis written by John Beirne and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper analyses the drivers of sovereign risk for 31 advanced and emerging economies during the European sovereign debt crisis. It shows that a deterioration in countries' fundamentals and fundamentals contagion - a sharp rise in the sensitivity of financial markets to fundamentals - are the main explanations for the rise in sovereign yield spreads and CDS spreads during the crisis, not only for euro area countries but globally. By contrast, regional spillovers and contagion have been less important, including for euro area countries. The paper also finds evidence for herding contagion - sharp, simultaneous increases in sovereign yields across countries - but this contagion has been concentrated in time and among a few markets. Finally, empirical models with economic fundamentals generally do a poor job in explaining sovereign risk in the pre-crisis period for European economies, suggesting that the market pricing of sovereign risk may not have been fully reflecting fundamentals prior to the crisis.
Book Synopsis Non-Defaultable Debt and Sovereign Risk by : Mr.Juan Carlos Hatchondo
Download or read book Non-Defaultable Debt and Sovereign Risk written by Mr.Juan Carlos Hatchondo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-28 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We quantify gains from introducing non-defaultable debt as a limited additional financing option into a model of equilibrium sovereign risk. We find that, for an initial (defaultable) sovereign debt level equal to 66 percent of trend aggregate income and a sovereign spread of 2.9 percent, introducing the possibility of issuing non-defaultable debt for up to 10 percent of aggregate income reduces immediately the spread to 1.4 percent, and implies a welfare gain equivalent to a permanent consumption increase of 0.9 percent. The spread reduction would be only 0.1 (0.2) percentage points higher if the government uses nondefaultable debt to buy back (finance a “voluntary” debt exchange for) previously issued defaultable debt. Without restrictions to defaultable debt issuances in the future, the spread reduction achieved by the introduction of non-defaultable debt is short lived. We also show that allowing governments in default to increase non-defaultable debt is damaging at the time non-defaultable debt is introduced and inconsequential in the medium term. These findings shed light on different aspects of proposals to introduce common euro-area sovereign bonds that could be virtually non-defaultable.
Author : Publisher :Springer Nature ISBN 13 :365846173X Total Pages :225 pages Book Rating :4.6/5 (584 download)
Download or read book written by and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Credit Default Swap Markets in the Global Economy by : Go Tamakoshi
Download or read book Credit Default Swap Markets in the Global Economy written by Go Tamakoshi and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-01-19 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive overview for various segments of the global credit default swap (CDS) markets, touching upon how they were affected by the recent financial turmoil. The book uses empirical analysis on credit default swap markets, applying advanced econometric methodologies to the time series data. It covers not only well-studied sovereign credit default swap markets but also sector credit default swap indices (i.e., CDS index for the banking sector) and corporate credit default swap indices (i.e., Markit iTraxx Japan CDS index), which have not been fully examined by the previous literature. The book also investigates causality and co-movement among several credit default swap markets, or between CDS and other financial markets.
Book Synopsis Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis by : Silvia Sgherri
Download or read book Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis written by Silvia Sgherri and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While the use of public resources is critical to cushion the impact of the financial crisis on the euro-area economy, it is key that the entailed fiscal costs not be seen by markets as undermining fiscal sustainability. From this perspective, to what extent do movements in euro area sovereign spreads reflect country-specific solvency concerns? In line with previous studies, the paper suggests that euro area sovereign risk premium differentials tend to comove over time and are mainly driven by a common time-varying factor, mimicking global risk repricing. Since October 2008, however, there is evidence that markets have become progressively more concerned about the potential fiscal implications of national financial sectors' frailty and future debt dynamics. The liquidity of sovereign bond markets still seems to play a significant (albeit fairly limited) role in explaining changes in euro area spreads.
Book Synopsis How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads? by : Jacopo Cimadomo
Download or read book How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads? written by Jacopo Cimadomo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-16 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondents consider the expected evolution of the fiscal balance—and other economic fundamentals—to be significant drivers of the expected bond yield differential over a benchmark German 10-year bond. Our main result is that a projected improvement of the fiscal outlook significantly reduces expected sovereign spreads. This suggests that credible fiscal plans affect market experts’ expectations and reduce the pressure on sovereign bond markets. In addition, we show that expected fundamentals generally play a more important role in explaining forecasted spreads compared to realized spreads.
Book Synopsis Rethinking Valuation and Pricing Models by : Carsten Wehn
Download or read book Rethinking Valuation and Pricing Models written by Carsten Wehn and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2012-11-08 with total page 658 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is widely acknowledged that many financial modelling techniques failed during the financial crisis, and in our post-crisis environment many techniques are being reconsidered. This single volume provides a guide to lessons learned for practitioners and a reference for academics. Including reviews of traditional approaches, real examples, and case studies, contributors consider portfolio theory; methods for valuing equities and equity derivatives, interest rate derivatives, and hybrid products; and techniques for calculating risks and implementing investment strategies. Describing new approaches without losing sight of their classical antecedents, this collection of original articles presents a timely perspective on our post-crisis paradigm. Highlights pre-crisis best classical practices, identifies post-crisis key issues, and examines emerging approaches to solving those issues Singles out key factors one must consider when valuing or calculating risks in the post-crisis environment Presents material in a homogenous, practical, clear, and not overly technical manner
Book Synopsis The Link Between Eurozone Sovereign Debt and CDS Prices by : Dominic O'Kane
Download or read book The Link Between Eurozone Sovereign Debt and CDS Prices written by Dominic O'Kane and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We perform a theoretical and empirical analysis of the relationship between the price of Eurozone sovereign-linked credit default swaps (CDS) and the same sovereign bond markets during the Eurozone debt crisis of 2009-2011. We first present a simple model which establishes the no-arbitrage relationship between CDS and bond yield spreads. We then test this relationship empirically and explain why the market may deviate from it. Reasons include the different currencies of denomination of market-standard CDS and their reference obligations. We also examine whether CDS spread cause changes in bond spreads, and vice-versa, in a Granger sense."--Abstract. We find evidence for a Granger causal relationship with a one day lag from CDS to bonds for Greece and Spain, the reverse relationship for France and Italy and a feedback relationship for Ireland and Portugal.
