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What Drives Business Cycle Fluctuations
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Book Synopsis Economic Cycles by : Solomos Solomou
Download or read book Economic Cycles written by Solomos Solomou and published by Manchester University Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ups and downs of booms and slumps, often referred to as business cycles, are features of all modern economies. This book considers business cycles over three epochs 1870-1913, 1919-1938 and the post-World War II period. It provides an analysis of the key macroeconomic questions relating to economic fluctuations. Why are the ups and down more volatile in some epochs than others? Why are some business cycle shocks more persistent in their effects? Is there an international business cycle? Can present business cycle features predict future patterns? What impact will institutional changes, such as EMU have on future fluctuations?
Book Synopsis Business Cycle Fluctuations and Economic Policy by : Khurshid M. Kiani
Download or read book Business Cycle Fluctuations and Economic Policy written by Khurshid M. Kiani and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book highlights the importance of studying similarity of business cycles across countries and answers the theoretical question about the behaviour of fluctuations in economic activity over different phases of business cycles. This is done by analysing cross-country data that provides sufficient empirical justifications on the behaviour of economic activity to conclude that business cycles are alike. Further, the book maintains, from the recent empirical research, that business cycles fluctuations are asymmetric. For empirical validation of the hypothesis that business cycles are asymmetric at least in the group of seven highly developed industrialised (G7) countries, real GDP growth rates from these countries are analysed using non-linear time series and switching time series models as well as in-sample and jack-knife out-of-sample forecasts from neural networks. While importance and application of non-linear and switching time series models are employed for testing possible existence of business cycle asymmetries in all the series after taking into account long memory, conditional heteroskedasticity, and time varying volatility in the series, usefulness of non-parametric techniques such as artificial neural networks forecasts are discussed and empirically tested to conclude that forecasts from neural networks are superior to the selected time series models. Additionally, the book presents a robust evidence of business cycle asymmetries in G7 countries, which is indeed, the answer to the basic research question on the behaviour of economic fluctuation over the business cycles. The book compares spill over and contagion effects due to business cycle fluctuations within the countries studied. In addition, having known the type of business cycle asymmetries, policy makers, empirical researchers, and forecasters would be able to employ appropriate forecasting models for forecasting impact of monetary policy or any other shock on the economies of these countries.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis Real Business Cycle Theory by : Fouad Sabry
Download or read book Real Business Cycle Theory written by Fouad Sabry and published by One Billion Knowledgeable. This book was released on 2024-04-15 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is Real Business Cycle Theory Real business-cycle theory is a class of new classical macroeconomics models in which business-cycle fluctuations are accounted for by real shocks. Unlike other leading theories of the business cycle, RBC theory sees business cycle fluctuations as the efficient response to exogenous changes in the real economic environment. That is, the level of national output necessarily maximizes expected utility, and governments should therefore concentrate on long-run structural policy changes and not intervene through discretionary fiscal or monetary policy designed to actively smooth out economic short-term fluctuations. How you will benefit (I) Insights, and validations about the following topics: Chapter 1: Real business-cycle theory Chapter 2: Keynesian economics Chapter 3: Macroeconomics Chapter 4: Recession Chapter 5: New Keynesian economics Chapter 6: Real versus nominal value (economics) Chapter 7: Business cycle Chapter 8: Aggregate demand Chapter 9: Procyclical and countercyclical variables Chapter 10: Robert Hall (economist) Chapter 11: Economic stability Chapter 12: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium Chapter 13: Neoclassical synthesis Chapter 14: New classical macroeconomics Chapter 15: Great Moderation Chapter 16: Demand-led growth Chapter 17: Stock market cycle Chapter 18: History of macroeconomic thought Chapter 19: Welfare cost of business cycles Chapter 20: Regression analysis Chapter 21: Economic recession in Iran (II) Answering the public top questions about real business cycle theory. (III) Real world examples for the usage of real business cycle theory in many fields. Who this book is for Professionals, undergraduate and graduate students, enthusiasts, hobbyists, and those who want to go beyond basic knowledge or information for any kind of Real Business Cycle Theory.
Book Synopsis Frontiers of Business Cycle Research by : Thomas F. Cooley
Download or read book Frontiers of Business Cycle Research written by Thomas F. Cooley and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 1995-02-26 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This introduction to modern business cycle theory uses a neoclassical growth framework to study the economic fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Presenting advances in dynamic economic theory and computational methods, it applies concepts to t
Book Synopsis The American Business Cycle by : Robert J. Gordon
Download or read book The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
Book Synopsis The Role of Policymakers in Business Cycle Fluctuations by : Jim Granato
Download or read book The Role of Policymakers in Business Cycle Fluctuations written by Jim Granato and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-03-13 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book's central theme is that a policymaker's role is to enhance the public's ability to coordinate their price information, price expectations, and economic activities. This role is fulfilled when policymakers maintain inflation stability. Inflation persists less when an implicit or explicit inflation target is met. Granato and Wong argue that inflation persistence is reduced when the public substitutes the prespecified inflation target for past inflation. A by-product of this co-ordination process is greater economic stability. In particular, inflation stability contributes to greater economic output stability, including the potential for the simultaneous reduction of both inflation and output variability - inflation-output co-stabilization (IOCS). Granato and Wong use historical, formal, and applied statistical analysis of business-cycle performance in the United States for the 1960 to 2000 period. They find that during periods when policymakers emphasize inflation stability, inflation uncertainty and persistence were reduced.
Book Synopsis The Dynamics of Business Cycles by : J.J. Polak
Download or read book The Dynamics of Business Cycles written by J.J. Polak and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2004-06-01 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1942, this landmark volume makes available the entire business-cycle analysis of the Dutch economist, Jan Tinbergen, whose work in economic dynamics stimulated a new school of econometric research. The book explains what is typical and common in economic movements - the system of supply and demand schedules used to describe a market, certain technical relations, and 'balance equations'.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Victor Zarnowitz
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Book Synopsis Global Business Cycles by : Mr.Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Business Cycles written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-06-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
Book Synopsis What Prevents a Real Business Cycle Model from Matching the U.S. Data? Decomposing the Labor Wedge by : Dmitry Plotnikov
Download or read book What Prevents a Real Business Cycle Model from Matching the U.S. Data? Decomposing the Labor Wedge written by Dmitry Plotnikov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-08 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I carry out a business cycle accounting exercise (Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan, 2007) on the U.S. data measured in wage units (Farmer (2010)) for the entire postwar period. In contrast to a conventional approach, this approach preserves common medium-term business cycle fluctuations in GDP, its components and the unemployment rate. Additionally, it facilitates decomposition of the labor wedge into the labor supply and the labor demand wedges. Using this business cycle accounting methodology, I find that in the transformed data, most movements in GDP are accounted for by the labor supply wedge. Therefore, I reverse a key finding of the real business cycle literature which asserts that 70% or more of economic fluctuations can be explained by TFP shocks. In other words, the real business cycle model fits the data badly because the assumption that households are on their labor supply equation is flawed. This failure is masked by data that has been filtered with a conventional approach that removes fluctuations at medium frequencies. My findings are consistent with the literature on incomplete labor markets.
Book Synopsis What Drives Business Cycle Fluctuations by : Mohan Bijapur
Download or read book What Drives Business Cycle Fluctuations written by Mohan Bijapur and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study jointly the roles of aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks in driving business cycle fluctuations. By decomposing total stock return volatility of approximately 30,000 publicly-listed US firms from 1962 to 2012, we construct distinct measures of aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty, and run a horse race between them in an otherwise standard macroeconomic VAR. We find that the two components of uncertainty exhibit strikingly different behaviour. Idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks account for a large fraction of fluctuations in economic activity at business cycle frequencies, whereas the contributions of aggregate uncertainty shocks are negligible. Idiosyncratic, not aggregate, uncertainty shocks produce the “sharp drop and rapid rebound” response in activity characterized in Bloom (2009). Furthermore, most of the contribution of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks appears to come from the largest 100 firms in the economy. These act as a primary force driving the business cycle, accounting for up to half of all fluctuations and exhibiting substantial independent variation from common structural forces. In contrast, shocks to the remaining mass of small firms are found to be quantitatively insignificant. Our results are interpreted as an empirical microfoundation for “granular” origins to the role of idiosyncratic uncertainty at the macroeconomic level, in the sense of Gabaix (2011).
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Thomas E. Hall and published by Praeger. This book was released on 1990-06-26 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a concise and and up-to-date survey of business cycles, discussing not only early theories of the business cycle and Keynesian and monetarist models, but also the rational expectationist and new Keynesian models along with actual business cycles. Hall traces the history of business cycles from the panic of 1907 to the long cyclical expansion beginning in late 1982. ISBN 0-275-93085-8: $39.95.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Wesley Clair Mitchell
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 1913 with total page 642 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Wesley Clair Mitchell
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by National Bureau of Economic Research. This book was released on 1927 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Unequal We Stand by : Jonathan Heathcote
Download or read book Unequal We Stand written by Jonathan Heathcote and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors conducted a systematic empirical study of cross-sectional inequality in the U.S., integrating data from various surveys. The authors follow the mapping suggested by the household budget constraint from individual wages to individual earnings, to household earnings, to disposable income, and, ultimately, to consumption and wealth. They document a continuous and sizable increase in wage inequality over the sample period. Changes in the distribution of hours worked sharpen the rise in earnings inequality before 1982, but mitigate its increase thereafter. Taxes and transfers compress the level of income inequality, especially at the bottom of the distribution, but have little effect on the overall trend. Charts and tables. This is a print-on-demand publication; it is not an original.
Book Synopsis Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S. by : Mr.Olivier Coibion
Download or read book Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S. written by Mr.Olivier Coibion and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the effects and historical contribution of monetary policy shocks to consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980. Contractionary monetary policy actions systematically increase inequality in labor earnings, total income, consumption and total expenditures. Furthermore, monetary shocks can account for a significant component of the historical cyclical variation in income and consumption inequality. Using detailed micro-level data on income and consumption, we document the different channels via which monetary policy shocks affect inequality, as well as how these channels depend on the nature of the change in monetary policy.
