What Does Risk-Neutral Skewness Tell Us About Future Stock Returns?

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis What Does Risk-Neutral Skewness Tell Us About Future Stock Returns? by : Przemyslaw Stan Stilger

Download or read book What Does Risk-Neutral Skewness Tell Us About Future Stock Returns? written by Przemyslaw Stan Stilger and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study documents a positive relationship between the option-implied risk-neutral skewness (RNS) of individual stock returns' distribution and future realized stock returns during the period 1996-2012. A strategy that is long the quintile portfolio with the highest RNS stocks and short the quintile portfolio with the lowest RNS stocks yields an average Fama-French-Carhart alpha of 55 bps per month (t-stat: 2.47). The significant underperformance of the portfolio with the most negative RNS stocks is driven by those stocks that are also perceived as relatively overpriced according to a series of overvaluation proxies and are too costly or too risky to sell short, thereby hindering the price correction mechanism. Our findings indicate that a highly negative RNS value, when reflecting high hedging demand for options by investors who perceive the underlying stock as relatively overpriced but hard to sell short, is a robust signal of significant future stock underperformance.

Risk-Neutral Skewness

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 53 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk-Neutral Skewness by : Zahid Rehman

Download or read book Risk-Neutral Skewness written by Zahid Rehman and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using data on individual stock options, we show that the currently observed option-implied ex ante skewness is positively related to future stock returns. This contrasts with the existing evidence that uses historical stock or option data to estimate skewness and finds a negative skewness-return relation. We proxy for the ex ante skewness by using the model-free implied skewness (MFIS) and show that high MFIS stocks outperform low MFIS stocks by 45 basis points per month after correcting for systematic exposure. We find that the positive MFIS-return relation stems from the ability of the current MFIS to identify the deviation of a firm's value from its fundamental value, and the most overvalued stocks have the most negative ex ante skewness. We further find that the speed of the value correction process depends on the arbitrage risk faced by arbitrageurs trying to exploit the observed inefficiencies. Our results have implications for the segmentation of equity and options markets as well as for limits of arbitrage in equity markets.

Option-Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (95 download)

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Book Synopsis Option-Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion by : Jens Carsten Jackwerth

Download or read book Option-Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion written by Jens Carsten Jackwerth and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Option-Implied Variance Asymmetry and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Option-Implied Variance Asymmetry and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns by : Tao Huang

Download or read book Option-Implied Variance Asymmetry and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns written by Tao Huang and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We find a positive relationship between individual stocks' implied variance asymmetry, defined as the difference between upside and downside risk-neutral semivariances extracted from out-of-money options, and future stock returns. The high-minus-low hedge portfolio earns the excess return of 0.90% (0.67%) per month in equal-weighted (value-weighted) returns. We show that implied variance asymmetry provides a neat measure of risk-neutral skewness and outperforms the standard risk-neutral skewness in predicting the cross-section of future stock returns. Risk-based equilibrium asset pricing models can not explain such a positive relationship, which instead can be potentially explained by information asymmetry and informed trading.

Caught Up in the (Higher) Moments

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 100 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (65 download)

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Book Synopsis Caught Up in the (Higher) Moments by : Ronald Jared DeLisle

Download or read book Caught Up in the (Higher) Moments written by Ronald Jared DeLisle and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ABSTRACT: This dissertation examines if information extracted from the options markets is priced in the cross-section of equity returns and whether or not this information is a systematic risk factor. Several versions of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model predict that changes in aggregate volatility are priced into the cross-section of stock returns. Literature confirms that changes in expected future market volatility are priced into the cross-section of stock returns. Several of these studies use the VIX Index as proxy for future market volatility, and suggest that it is a risk factor. However, prior studies do not test whether asymmetric volatility affects if firm sensitivity to changes in VIX is related to risk, or is just a characteristic uniformly affecting all firms. The first chapter of my dissertation examines the asymmetric relation of stock returns and changes in VIX. The study finds that sensitivity to VIX innovations affects returns when volatility is rising, but not when it is falling. When VIX rises this sensitivity is a priced risk factor, but when it falls there is a positive impact on all stocks irrespective of VIX loadings. The second essay of my dissertation uses the second, third, and fourth moments of the risk-neutral density extracted from options on the S & P 500 as the proxy for changes in the expected future market return distribution rather than just the VIX index. The VIX index, while easily obtained, contains limited information due to its construction. The risk-neutral moments map one-to-one to the real-world volatility smile from market options, and contain all the information in the cross-section of market option moneyness and provide a richer proxy for changes in expected future market return distribution. The analyses find that positive change in risk-neutral skewness is a risk-factor and that change in risk-neutral kurtosis is not. The evidence for change in risk-neutral volatility being a risk factor, however, is ambiguous.

Implied Volatility Functions

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (258 download)

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Book Synopsis Implied Volatility Functions by : Bernard Dumas

Download or read book Implied Volatility Functions written by Bernard Dumas and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Black and Scholes (1973) implied volatilities tend to be systematically related to the option's exercise price and time to expiration. Derman and Kani (1994), Dupire (1994), and Rubinstein (1994) attribute this behavior to the fact that the Black-Scholes constant volatility assumption is violated in practice. These authors hypothesize that the volatility of the underlying asset's return is a deterministic function of the asset price and time and develop the deterministic volatility function (DVF) option valuation model, which has the potential of fitting the observed cross-section of option prices exactly. Using a sample of S & P 500 index options during the period June 1988 through December 1993, we evaluate the economic significance of the implied deterministic volatility function by examining the predictive and hedging performance of the DV option valuation model. We find that its performance is worse than that of an ad hoc Black-Scholes model with variable implied volatilities.

Empirical Asset Pricing

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118589475
Total Pages : 512 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (185 download)

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Book Synopsis Empirical Asset Pricing by : Turan G. Bali

Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Turan G. Bali and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-02-26 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Bali, Engle, and Murray have produced a highly accessible introduction to the techniques and evidence of modern empirical asset pricing. This book should be read and absorbed by every serious student of the field, academic and professional.” Eugene Fama, Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago and 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences “The empirical analysis of the cross-section of stock returns is a monumental achievement of half a century of finance research. Both the established facts and the methods used to discover them have subtle complexities that can mislead casual observers and novice researchers. Bali, Engle, and Murray’s clear and careful guide to these issues provides a firm foundation for future discoveries.” John Campbell, Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics, Harvard University “Bali, Engle, and Murray provide clear and accessible descriptions of many of the most important empirical techniques and results in asset pricing.” Kenneth R. French, Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College “This exciting new book presents a thorough review of what we know about the cross-section of stock returns. Given its comprehensive nature, systematic approach, and easy-to-understand language, the book is a valuable resource for any introductory PhD class in empirical asset pricing.” Lubos Pastor, Charles P. McQuaid Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is a comprehensive overview of the most important findings of empirical asset pricing research. The book begins with thorough expositions of the most prevalent econometric techniques with in-depth discussions of the implementation and interpretation of results illustrated through detailed examples. The second half of the book applies these techniques to demonstrate the most salient patterns observed in stock returns. The phenomena documented form the basis for a range of investment strategies as well as the foundations of contemporary empirical asset pricing research. Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns also includes: Discussions on the driving forces behind the patterns observed in the stock market An extensive set of results that serve as a reference for practitioners and academics alike Numerous references to both contemporary and foundational research articles Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is an ideal textbook for graduate-level courses in asset pricing and portfolio management. The book is also an indispensable reference for researchers and practitioners in finance and economics. Turan G. Bali, PhD, is the Robert Parker Chair Professor of Finance in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. The recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize, he is the coauthor of Mathematical Methods for Finance: Tools for Asset and Risk Management, also published by Wiley. Robert F. Engle, PhD, is the Michael Armellino Professor of Finance in the Stern School of Business at New York University. He is the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, Director of the New York University Stern Volatility Institute, and co-founding President of the Society for Financial Econometrics. Scott Murray, PhD, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance in the J. Mack Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University. He is the recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize.

Big Data Science in Finance

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119602971
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (196 download)

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Book Synopsis Big Data Science in Finance by : Irene Aldridge

Download or read book Big Data Science in Finance written by Irene Aldridge and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-01-08 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains the mathematics, theory, and methods of Big Data as applied to finance and investing Data science has fundamentally changed Wall Street—applied mathematics and software code are increasingly driving finance and investment-decision tools. Big Data Science in Finance examines the mathematics, theory, and practical use of the revolutionary techniques that are transforming the industry. Designed for mathematically-advanced students and discerning financial practitioners alike, this energizing book presents new, cutting-edge content based on world-class research taught in the leading Financial Mathematics and Engineering programs in the world. Marco Avellaneda, a leader in quantitative finance, and quantitative methodology author Irene Aldridge help readers harness the power of Big Data. Comprehensive in scope, this book offers in-depth instruction on how to separate signal from noise, how to deal with missing data values, and how to utilize Big Data techniques in decision-making. Key topics include data clustering, data storage optimization, Big Data dynamics, Monte Carlo methods and their applications in Big Data analysis, and more. This valuable book: Provides a complete account of Big Data that includes proofs, step-by-step applications, and code samples Explains the difference between Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) Covers vital topics in the field in a clear, straightforward manner Compares, contrasts, and discusses Big Data and Small Data Includes Cornell University-tested educational materials such as lesson plans, end-of-chapter questions, and downloadable lecture slides Big Data Science in Finance: Mathematics and Applications is an important, up-to-date resource for students in economics, econometrics, finance, applied mathematics, industrial engineering, and business courses, and for investment managers, quantitative traders, risk and portfolio managers, and other financial practitioners.

Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 49 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options by : Gurdip Bakshi

Download or read book Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options written by Gurdip Bakshi and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article provides several new insights into the economic sources of skewness. First, we document the differential pricing of individual equity options versus the market index, and relate it to variations in return skewness. Second, we show how risk aversion introduces skewness in the risk-neutral density. Third, we derive laws that decompose individual return skewness into a systematic component and an idiosyncratic component. Empirical analysis of OEX options and 30 stocks demonstrates that individual risk-neutral distributions differ from that of the market index by being far less negatively skewed. This paper explains the presence and evolution of risk-neutral skewness over time and in the cross-section of individual stocks.

STL Custom Collection

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781642412260
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (122 download)

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Book Synopsis STL Custom Collection by :

Download or read book STL Custom Collection written by and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance

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Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1801173125
Total Pages : 240 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (11 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance by : Cheng-Few Lee

Download or read book Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance written by Cheng-Few Lee and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2022-03-15 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance (APBBEF) is an annual series designed to focus on interdisciplinary research in finance, economics, and management among Pacific Rim countries. All articles published are reviewed and recommended by at least two members of the editorial board.

Empirical Asset Pricing

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118589661
Total Pages : 512 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (185 download)

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Book Synopsis Empirical Asset Pricing by : Turan G. Bali

Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Turan G. Bali and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-03-09 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Bali, Engle, and Murray have produced a highly accessible introduction to the techniques and evidence of modern empirical asset pricing. This book should be read and absorbed by every serious student of the field, academic and professional.” Eugene Fama, Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago and 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences “The empirical analysis of the cross-section of stock returns is a monumental achievement of half a century of finance research. Both the established facts and the methods used to discover them have subtle complexities that can mislead casual observers and novice researchers. Bali, Engle, and Murray’s clear and careful guide to these issues provides a firm foundation for future discoveries.” John Campbell, Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics, Harvard University “Bali, Engle, and Murray provide clear and accessible descriptions of many of the most important empirical techniques and results in asset pricing.” Kenneth R. French, Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College “This exciting new book presents a thorough review of what we know about the cross-section of stock returns. Given its comprehensive nature, systematic approach, and easy-to-understand language, the book is a valuable resource for any introductory PhD class in empirical asset pricing.” Lubos Pastor, Charles P. McQuaid Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is a comprehensive overview of the most important findings of empirical asset pricing research. The book begins with thorough expositions of the most prevalent econometric techniques with in-depth discussions of the implementation and interpretation of results illustrated through detailed examples. The second half of the book applies these techniques to demonstrate the most salient patterns observed in stock returns. The phenomena documented form the basis for a range of investment strategies as well as the foundations of contemporary empirical asset pricing research. Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns also includes: Discussions on the driving forces behind the patterns observed in the stock market An extensive set of results that serve as a reference for practitioners and academics alike Numerous references to both contemporary and foundational research articles Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is an ideal textbook for graduate-level courses in asset pricing and portfolio management. The book is also an indispensable reference for researchers and practitioners in finance and economics. Turan G. Bali, PhD, is the Robert Parker Chair Professor of Finance in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. The recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize, he is the coauthor of Mathematical Methods for Finance: Tools for Asset and Risk Management, also published by Wiley. Robert F. Engle, PhD, is the Michael Armellino Professor of Finance in the Stern School of Business at New York University. He is the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, Director of the New York University Stern Volatility Institute, and co-founding President of the Society for Financial Econometrics. Scott Murray, PhD, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance in the J. Mack Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University. He is the recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize.

The Equity Premium and The Volatility Spread

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Equity Premium and The Volatility Spread by : Bruno Feunou

Download or read book The Equity Premium and The Volatility Spread written by Bruno Feunou and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We introduce the Homoscedastic Gamma [HG] model where the distribution of returns is characterized by its mean, variance and an independent skewness parameter under both measures. The model predicts that the spread between historical and risk-neutral volatilities is a function of the risk premium and of skewness. In fact, the equity premium is twice the ratio of the volatility spread to skewness. We measure skewness from option prices and test these predictions. We find that conditioning on skewness increases the predictive power of the volatility spread and that coefficient estimates accord with theory. In short, the data do not reject the model's implications for the equity premium. We also check the model's implications for option pricing and show that the information content of skewness leads to improved in-sample and out-of-sample pricing performances as well as improved hedging performances. Our results imply that expanding around the Gaussian density is restrictive and does not offer sufficient flexibility to match the skewness and kurtosis implicit in option data. Finally, we document the term structure of option-implied volatility, skewness and kurtosis and find that time-dependence in returns has a greater impact on skewness.

What Goes Into Risk Neutral Volatility? Empirical Estimates of Risk and Subjective Risk Preferences

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis What Goes Into Risk Neutral Volatility? Empirical Estimates of Risk and Subjective Risk Preferences by : Stephen Figlewski

Download or read book What Goes Into Risk Neutral Volatility? Empirical Estimates of Risk and Subjective Risk Preferences written by Stephen Figlewski and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Under Black-Scholes (BS) assumptions, empirical volatility and risk neutral volatility are given by a single parameter, which captures all aspects of risk. Inverting the model to extract implied volatility from an option's market price gives the market's forecast of future empirical volatility. But real world returns are not lognormal, volatility is stochastic, and arbitrage is limited, so option prices embed both the market's estimate of the empirical returns distribution and also investors' risk attitudes, including possibly distinct preferences over different volatility-related aspects of the returns process, such as tail risk. All of these influences are reflected in the risk neutral density (RND), which can be extracted from option prices without requiring restrictive assumptions from a pricing model.We compute daily RNDs for the S&P 500 index over 15 years and find that risk neutral volatility is strongly influenced both by investors' projections of future realized volatility and also by the risk neutralization process. Several significant variables are connected in different ways to realized volatility, such as the daily trading range and tail risk; others reflect risk attitudes, such as the level of investor confidence and the size of recent volatility forecast errors.

Volatility and Time Series Econometrics

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Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199549494
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (995 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility and Time Series Econometrics by : Mark Watson

Download or read book Volatility and Time Series Econometrics written by Mark Watson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-11 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A volume that celebrates and develops the work of Nobel Laureate Robert Engle, it includes original contributions from some of the world's leading econometricians that further Engle's work in time series economics

The Efficient Market Theory and Evidence

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Publisher : Now Publishers Inc
ISBN 13 : 1601984685
Total Pages : 99 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis The Efficient Market Theory and Evidence by : Andrew Ang

Download or read book The Efficient Market Theory and Evidence written by Andrew Ang and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2011 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) asserts that, at all times, the price of a security reflects all available information about its fundamental value. The implication of the EMH for investors is that, to the extent that speculative trading is costly, speculation must be a loser's game. Hence, under the EMH, a passive strategy is bound eventually to beat a strategy that uses active management, where active management is characterized as trading that seeks to exploit mispriced assets relative to a risk-adjusted benchmark. The EMH has been refined over the past several decades to reflect the realism of the marketplace, including costly information, transactions costs, financing, agency costs, and other real-world frictions. The most recent expressions of the EMH thus allow a role for arbitrageurs in the market who may profit from their comparative advantages. These advantages may include specialized knowledge, lower trading costs, low management fees or agency costs, and a financing structure that allows the arbitrageur to undertake trades with long verification periods. The actions of these arbitrageurs cause liquid securities markets to be generally fairly efficient with respect to information, despite some notable anomalies.

Responsible Investing

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351361910
Total Pages : 319 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (513 download)

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Book Synopsis Responsible Investing by : Matthew W. Sherwood

Download or read book Responsible Investing written by Matthew W. Sherwood and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-09-21 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This textbook provides the first holistic resource on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing for undergraduate and graduate programs. It provides a thorough background and history of ESG investing, as well as cutting-edge industry developments, in a way that introduces the reader to the rapidly developing field of responsible investing. Beginning with a comprehensive background of ESG investing and the development of models measuring risk and return, the book then discusses the development of ESG risks, and provides an overview of ESG rating systems. The textbook also outlines the current position of ESG investing in portfolio management through granular analysis, provides insight into common investor concerns about ESG investments, discloses qualitative theories relevant to ESG investing, and reviews literature attempting to model ESG investment performance. Finally, the authors provide readers with a foundation on the development of financial models measuring risk and return, which will be useful for measuring the performance of ESG investments. With case studies from contributors around the world, this textbook is the first of its kind to truly provide a compelling blend of quantitative and qualitative analysis supporting the incorporation of ESG investment strategies into investment portfolios. Offering an excellent overview of the growing trends in ESG investing, as well as a close analysis of ESG theories and their practical application both today and in the future, this book will be a great resource for both undergraduates and graduate students.