Volatility Forecast Comparison Using Imperfect Volatility Proxies

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Volatility Forecast Comparison Using Imperfect Volatility Proxies

Author : Andrew J. Patton
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 45 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility Forecast Comparison Using Imperfect Volatility Proxies by : Andrew J. Patton

Download or read book Volatility Forecast Comparison Using Imperfect Volatility Proxies written by Andrew J. Patton and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The use of a conditionally unbiased, but imperfect, volatility proxy can lead to undesirable outcomes in standard methods for comparing conditional variance forecasts. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions on functional form of the loss function for the ranking of competing volatility forecasts to be robust to the presence of noise in the volatility proxy, and derive some interesting special cases of this class of quot;robustquot; loss functions. We motivate the theory with analytical results on the distortions caused by some widely-used loss functions, when used with standard volatility proxies such as squared returns, the intra-daily range or realised volatility. The methods are illustrated with an application to the volatility of returns on IBM over the period 1993 to 2003.

A Forecast Comparison of Volatility Models Using Realized Volatility

Author : Takahiro Hattori
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 9 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis A Forecast Comparison of Volatility Models Using Realized Volatility by : Takahiro Hattori

Download or read book A Forecast Comparison of Volatility Models Using Realized Volatility written by Takahiro Hattori and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper first evaluates the volatility modeling in the Bitcoin market in terms of its realized volatility, which is considered to be a reliable proxy of its true volatility. In addition, we also rely on the important work by Patton (2011), which shows good measures for making the forecast accuracy robust to noise in the imperfect volatility proxy. We empirically show that (1) the asymmetric volatility models such as EGARCH and APARCH have a higher predictability, and (2) the volatility model with normal distribution performs better than the fat-tailed distribution such as skewed t distribution.

Modelling and forecasting stock return volatility and the term structure of interest rates

Author : Michiel de Pooter
Publisher : Rozenberg Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9051709153
Total Pages : 286 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (517 download)

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Book Synopsis Modelling and forecasting stock return volatility and the term structure of interest rates by : Michiel de Pooter

Download or read book Modelling and forecasting stock return volatility and the term structure of interest rates written by Michiel de Pooter and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2007 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of a collection of studies on two areas in quantitative finance: asset return volatility and the term structure of interest rates. The first part of this dissertation offers contributions to the literature on how to test for sudden changes in unconditional volatility, on modelling realized volatility and on the choice of optimal sampling frequencies for intraday returns. The emphasis in the second part of this dissertation is on the term structure of interest rates.

Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications

Author : Luc Bauwens
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118272056
Total Pages : 566 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (182 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications by : Luc Bauwens

Download or read book Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications written by Luc Bauwens and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-03-22 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

Stochastic Volatility and Realized Stochastic Volatility Models

Author : Makoto Takahashi
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 981990935X
Total Pages : 120 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Stochastic Volatility and Realized Stochastic Volatility Models by : Makoto Takahashi

Download or read book Stochastic Volatility and Realized Stochastic Volatility Models written by Makoto Takahashi and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-04-18 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This treatise delves into the latest advancements in stochastic volatility models, highlighting the utilization of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations for estimating model parameters and forecasting the volatility and quantiles of financial asset returns. The modeling of financial time series volatility constitutes a crucial aspect of finance, as it plays a vital role in predicting return distributions and managing risks. Among the various econometric models available, the stochastic volatility model has been a popular choice, particularly in comparison to other models, such as GARCH models, as it has demonstrated superior performance in previous empirical studies in terms of fit, forecasting volatility, and evaluating tail risk measures such as Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. The book also explores an extension of the basic stochastic volatility model, incorporating a skewed return error distribution and a realized volatility measurement equation. The concept of realized volatility, a newly established estimator of volatility using intraday returns data, is introduced, and a comprehensive description of the resulting realized stochastic volatility model is provided. The text contains a thorough explanation of several efficient sampling algorithms for latent log volatilities, as well as an illustration of parameter estimation and volatility prediction through empirical studies utilizing various asset return data, including the yen/US dollar exchange rate, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nikkei 225 stock index. This publication is highly recommended for readers with an interest in the latest developments in stochastic volatility models and realized stochastic volatility models, particularly in regards to financial risk management.

Forecasting High-Frequency Volatility Shocks

Author : Holger Kömm
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3658125969
Total Pages : 188 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (581 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting High-Frequency Volatility Shocks by : Holger Kömm

Download or read book Forecasting High-Frequency Volatility Shocks written by Holger Kömm and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-02-08 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis presents a new strategy that unites qualitative and quantitative mass data in form of text news and tick-by-tick asset prices to forecast the risk of upcoming volatility shocks. Holger Kömm embeds the proposed strategy in a monitoring system, using first, a sequence of competing estimators to compute the unobservable volatility; second, a new two-state Markov switching mixture model for autoregressive and zero-inflated time-series to identify structural breaks in a latent data generation process and third, a selection of competing pattern recognition algorithms to classify the potential information embedded in unexpected, but public observable text data in shock and nonshock information. The monitor is trained, tested, and evaluated on a two year survey on the prime standard assets listed in the indices DAX, MDAX, SDAX and TecDAX.

Volatility and Time Series Econometrics

Author : Tim Bollerslev
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 0191572195
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (915 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility and Time Series Econometrics by : Tim Bollerslev

Download or read book Volatility and Time Series Econometrics written by Tim Bollerslev and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2010-02-11 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Robert Engle received the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2003 for his work in time series econometrics. This book contains 16 original research contributions by some the leading academic researchers in the fields of time series econometrics, forecasting, volatility modelling, financial econometrics and urban economics, along with historical perspectives related to field of time series econometrics more generally. Engle's Nobel Prize citation focuses on his path-breaking work on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and the profound effect that this work has had on the field of financial econometrics. Several of the chapters focus on conditional heteroskedasticity, and develop the ideas of Engle's Nobel Prize winning work. Engle's work has had its most profound effect on the modelling of financial variables and several of the chapters use newly developed time series methods to study the behavior of financial variables. Each of the 16 chapters may be read in isolation, but they all importantly build on and relate to the seminal work by Nobel Laureate Robert F. Engle.

Financial Mathematics, Volatility and Covariance Modelling

Author : Julien Chevallier
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351669087
Total Pages : 344 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Mathematics, Volatility and Covariance Modelling by : Julien Chevallier

Download or read book Financial Mathematics, Volatility and Covariance Modelling written by Julien Chevallier and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-06-28 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an up-to-date series of advanced chapters on applied financial econometric techniques pertaining the various fields of commodities finance, mathematics & stochastics, international macroeconomics and financial econometrics. Financial Mathematics, Volatility and Covariance Modelling: Volume 2 provides a key repository on the current state of knowledge, the latest debates and recent literature on financial mathematics, volatility and covariance modelling. The first section is devoted to mathematical finance, stochastic modelling and control optimization. Chapters explore the recent financial crisis, the increase of uncertainty and volatility, and propose an alternative approach to deal with these issues. The second section covers financial volatility and covariance modelling and explores proposals for dealing with recent developments in financial econometrics This book will be useful to students and researchers in applied econometrics; academics and students seeking convenient access to an unfamiliar area. It will also be of great interest established researchers seeking a single repository on the current state of knowledge, current debates and relevant literature.

Volatility Forecasting Using Threshold Heteroskedastic Models of the Intra-day Range

Author : Cathy W. S. Chen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility Forecasting Using Threshold Heteroskedastic Models of the Intra-day Range by : Cathy W. S. Chen

Download or read book Volatility Forecasting Using Threshold Heteroskedastic Models of the Intra-day Range written by Cathy W. S. Chen and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An effective approach for forecasting return volatility via threshold nonlinear heteroskedastic models of the daily asset price range is provided. The return is defined as the difference between the highest and lowest log intra-day asset price. A general model specification is proposed, allowing the intra-day high-low price range to depend nonlinearly on past information, or an exogenous variable such as US market information. The model captures aspects such as sign or size asymmetry and heteroskedasticity, which are commonly observed in financial markets. The focus is on parameter estimation, inference and volatility forecasting in a Bayesian framework. An MCMC sampling scheme is employed for estimation and shown to work well in simulation experiments. Finally, competing range-based and return-based heteroskedastic models are compared via out-of-sample forecast performance. Applied to six international financial market indices, the range-based threshold heteroskedastic models are well supported by the data in terms of finding significant threshold nonlinearity, diagnostic checking and volatility forecast performance under various volatility proxies.

Handbook of Financial Time Series

Author : Torben Gustav Andersen
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540712976
Total Pages : 1045 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Financial Time Series by : Torben Gustav Andersen

Download or read book Handbook of Financial Time Series written by Torben Gustav Andersen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-04-21 with total page 1045 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Handbook of Financial Time Series gives an up-to-date overview of the field and covers all relevant topics both from a statistical and an econometrical point of view. There are many fine contributions, and a preamble by Nobel Prize winner Robert F. Engle.

ARCH Models for Financial Applications

Author : Evdokia Xekalaki
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780470688021
Total Pages : 558 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (88 download)

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Book Synopsis ARCH Models for Financial Applications by : Evdokia Xekalaki

Download or read book ARCH Models for Financial Applications written by Evdokia Xekalaki and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-03-18 with total page 558 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) processes are used in finance to model asset price volatility over time. This book introduces both the theory and applications of ARCH models and provides the basic theoretical and empirical background, before proceeding to more advanced issues and applications. The Authors provide coverage of the recent developments in ARCH modelling which can be implemented using econometric software, model construction, fitting and forecasting and model evaluation and selection. Key Features: Presents a comprehensive overview of both the theory and the practical applications of ARCH, an increasingly popular financial modelling technique. Assumes no prior knowledge of ARCH models; the basics such as model construction are introduced, before proceeding to more complex applications such as value-at-risk, option pricing and model evaluation. Uses empirical examples to demonstrate how the recent developments in ARCH can be implemented. Provides step-by-step instructive examples, using econometric software, such as Econometric Views and the G@RCH module for the Ox software package, used in Estimating and Forecasting ARCH Models. Accompanied by a CD-ROM containing links to the software as well as the datasets used in the examples. Aimed at readers wishing to gain an aptitude in the applications of financial econometric modelling with a focus on practical implementation, via applications to real data and via examples worked with econometrics packages.

Modelling and Forecasting High Frequency Financial Data

Author : Stavros Degiannakis
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1137396490
Total Pages : 411 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (373 download)

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Book Synopsis Modelling and Forecasting High Frequency Financial Data by : Stavros Degiannakis

Download or read book Modelling and Forecasting High Frequency Financial Data written by Stavros Degiannakis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-29 with total page 411 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis has reopened discussion surrounding the use of appropriate theoretical financial frameworks to reflect the current economic climate. There is a need for more sophisticated analytical concepts which take into account current quantitative changes and unprecedented turbulence in the financial markets. This book provides a comprehensive guide to the quantitative analysis of high frequency financial data in the light of current events and contemporary issues, using the latest empirical research and theory. It highlights and explains the shortcomings of theoretical frameworks and provides an explanation of high-frequency theory, emphasising ways in which to critically apply this knowledge within a financial context. Modelling and Forecasting High Frequency Financial Data combines traditional and updated theories and applies them to real-world financial market situations. It will be a valuable and accessible resource for anyone wishing to understand quantitative analysis and modelling in current financial markets.

Advances in Theoretical and Applied Statistics

Author : Nicola Torelli
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642355889
Total Pages : 538 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (423 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Theoretical and Applied Statistics by : Nicola Torelli

Download or read book Advances in Theoretical and Applied Statistics written by Nicola Torelli and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-26 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume includes contributions selected after a double blind review process and presented as a preliminary version at the 45th Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society. The papers provide significant and innovative original contributions and cover a broad range of topics including: statistical theory; methods for time series and spatial data; statistical modeling and data analysis; survey methodology and official statistics; analysis of social, demographic and health data; and economic statistics and econometrics.

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Author : Michael P. Clements
Publisher : OUP USA
ISBN 13 : 0195398645
Total Pages : 732 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (953 download)

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Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Michael P. Clements

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2011-07-08 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.

Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance

Author : Marco Corazza
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319898248
Total Pages : 465 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (198 download)

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Book Synopsis Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance by : Marco Corazza

Download or read book Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance written by Marco Corazza and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-17 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The interaction between mathematicians, statisticians and econometricians working in actuarial sciences and finance is producing numerous meaningful scientific results. This volume introduces new ideas, in the form of four-page papers, presented at the international conference Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance (MAF), held at Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (Spain), 4th-6th April 2018. The book covers a wide variety of subjects in actuarial science and financial fields, all discussed in the context of the cooperation between the three quantitative approaches. The topics include: actuarial models; analysis of high frequency financial data; behavioural finance; carbon and green finance; credit risk methods and models; dynamic optimization in finance; financial econometrics; forecasting of dynamical actuarial and financial phenomena; fund performance evaluation; insurance portfolio risk analysis; interest rate models; longevity risk; machine learning and soft-computing in finance; management in insurance business; models and methods for financial time series analysis, models for financial derivatives; multivariate techniques for financial markets analysis; optimization in insurance; pricing; probability in actuarial sciences, insurance and finance; real world finance; risk management; solvency analysis; sovereign risk; static and dynamic portfolio selection and management; trading systems. This book is a valuable resource for academics, PhD students, practitioners, professionals and researchers, and is also of interest to other readers with quantitative background knowledge.

Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications

Author : Satyanshu K. Upadhyay
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1482235129
Total Pages : 674 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (822 download)

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Book Synopsis Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications by : Satyanshu K. Upadhyay

Download or read book Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications written by Satyanshu K. Upadhyay and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-05-21 with total page 674 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics. Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on a Bayesian methodology. It gives an overview of the area, presents theoretical insights, and emphasizes applications through motivating examples. This book reflects the diversity of Bayesian analysis, from novel Bayesian methodology, such as nonignorable response and factor analysis, to state-of-the-art applications in economics, astrophysics, biomedicine, oceanography, and other areas. It guides readers in using Bayesian techniques for a range of statistical analyses.

Multi-Asset Risk Modeling

Author : Morton Glantz
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0124016944
Total Pages : 545 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (24 download)

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Book Synopsis Multi-Asset Risk Modeling by : Morton Glantz

Download or read book Multi-Asset Risk Modeling written by Morton Glantz and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2013-12-03 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Multi-Asset Risk Modeling describes, in a single volume, the latest and most advanced risk modeling techniques for equities, debt, fixed income, futures and derivatives, commodities, and foreign exchange, as well as advanced algorithmic and electronic risk management. Beginning with the fundamentals of risk mathematics and quantitative risk analysis, the book moves on to discuss the laws in standard models that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis and talks about current and future banking regulation. Importantly, it also explores algorithmic trading, which currently receives sparse attention in the literature. By giving coherent recommendations about which statistical models to use for which asset class, this book makes a real contribution to the sciences of portfolio management and risk management. Covers all asset classes Provides mathematical theoretical explanations of risk as well as practical examples with empirical data Includes sections on equity risk modeling, futures and derivatives, credit markets, foreign exchange, and commodities