Valuing Financial Institutions

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The Valuation of Financial Companies

Author : Mario Massari
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118617266
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (186 download)

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Book Synopsis The Valuation of Financial Companies by : Mario Massari

Download or read book The Valuation of Financial Companies written by Mario Massari and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-01-07 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the main valuation approaches that can be used to value financial institutions. By sketching 1) the different business models of banks (both commercial and investment banks) and insurance companies (life, property and casualty and reinsurance); 2) the structure and peculiarities of financial institutions’ reporting and financial statements; and 3) the main features of regulatory capital frameworks for banking and insurance (ie Basel III, Solvency II), the book addresses why such elements make the valuation of financial institutions different from the valuation of non-financial companies. The book then features the valuation models that can be used to determine the value of banks and insurance companies including the Discounted Cash Flow, Dividend Discount Model, and Residual Income Model (with the appropriate estimation techniques for the cost of capital and cash flow in financial industries). The main techniques to perform the relative valuation of financial institutions are then presented: along the traditional multiples (P/E, P/BV, P/TBV, P/NAV), the multiples based on industry-specific value drivers are discussed (for example, P/Pre Provision Profit, P/Deposits, P/Premiums, P/Number of branches). Further valuation tools such as the “Value Maps” or the “Warranted Equity Method” will be explained and discussed. The closing section of the book will briefly focus on the valuation of specific financial companies/vehicles such as closed-end funds, private equity funds, leasing companies, etc.

Valuing Banks

Author : Federico Beltrame
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1137561424
Total Pages : 261 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (375 download)

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Book Synopsis Valuing Banks by : Federico Beltrame

Download or read book Valuing Banks written by Federico Beltrame and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-27 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims to overcome the limitations the variations in bank-specifics impose by providing a bank-specific valuation theoretical framework and a new asset-side model. The book includes also a constructive comparison of equity and asset side methods. The authors present a novel framework entitled, the “Asset Mark-down Model”. This method incorporates an Adjusted Present Value model, which allows practitioners to identify the main value creation sources of a particular bank: from asset-based cash flow and the mark-down on deposits, to tax benefits on bearing liabilities. Through the implementation of this framework, the authors offer a more accurate and more specific approach to valuing banks.

The Valuation of Financial Companies

Author : Mario Massari
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118617339
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (186 download)

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Book Synopsis The Valuation of Financial Companies by : Mario Massari

Download or read book The Valuation of Financial Companies written by Mario Massari and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-03-31 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the main valuation approaches that can be used to value financial institutions. By sketching 1) the different business models of banks (both commercial and investment banks) and insurance companies (life, property and casualty and reinsurance); 2) the structure and peculiarities of financial institutions’ reporting and financial statements; and 3) the main features of regulatory capital frameworks for banking and insurance (ie Basel III, Solvency II), the book addresses why such elements make the valuation of financial institutions different from the valuation of non-financial companies. The book then features the valuation models that can be used to determine the value of banks and insurance companies including the Discounted Cash Flow, Dividend Discount Model, and Residual Income Model (with the appropriate estimation techniques for the cost of capital and cash flow in financial industries). The main techniques to perform the relative valuation of financial institutions are then presented: along the traditional multiples (P/E, P/BV, P/TBV, P/NAV), the multiples based on industry-specific value drivers are discussed (for example, P/Pre Provision Profit, P/Deposits, P/Premiums, P/Number of branches). Further valuation tools such as the “Value Maps” or the “Warranted Equity Method” will be explained and discussed. The closing section of the book will briefly focus on the valuation of specific financial companies/vehicles such as closed-end funds, private equity funds, leasing companies, etc.

Valuing Financial Institutions

Author : Z. Christopher Mercer
Publisher : McGraw-Hill Professional Publishing
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 680 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Valuing Financial Institutions by : Z. Christopher Mercer

Download or read book Valuing Financial Institutions written by Z. Christopher Mercer and published by McGraw-Hill Professional Publishing. This book was released on 1991 with total page 680 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Damodaran on Valuation

Author : Aswath Damodaran
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470049375
Total Pages : 698 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Damodaran on Valuation by : Aswath Damodaran

Download or read book Damodaran on Valuation written by Aswath Damodaran and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-02-08 with total page 698 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Aswath Damodaran is simply the best valuation teacher around. If you are interested in the theory or practice of valuation, you should have Damodaran on Valuation on your bookshelf. You can bet that I do." -- Michael J. Mauboussin, Chief Investment Strategist, Legg Mason Capital Management and author of More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places In order to be a successful CEO, corporate strategist, or analyst, understanding the valuation process is a necessity. The second edition of Damodaran on Valuation stands out as the most reliable book for answering many of today?s critical valuation questions. Completely revised and updated, this edition is the ideal book on valuation for CEOs and corporate strategists. You'll gain an understanding of the vitality of today?s valuation models and develop the acumen needed for the most complex and subtle valuation scenarios you will face.

Value and Capital Management

Author : Thomas C. Wilson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118774639
Total Pages : 724 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (187 download)

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Book Synopsis Value and Capital Management by : Thomas C. Wilson

Download or read book Value and Capital Management written by Thomas C. Wilson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-08-31 with total page 724 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A value management framework designed specifically for banking and insurance The Value Management Handbook is a comprehensive, practical reference written specifically for bank and insurance valuation and value management. Spelling out how the finance and risk functions add value in their respective spheres, this book presents a framework for measuring – and more importantly, influencing – the value of the firm from the position of the CFO and CRO. Case studies illustrating value-enhancing initiatives are designed to help Heads of Strategy offer CEOs concrete ideas toward creating more value, and discussion of "hard" and "soft" skills put CFOs and CROs in a position to better influence strategy and operations. The challenge of financial services valuation is addressed in terms of the roles of risk and capital, and business-specific "value trees" demonstrate the source of successful value enhancement initiatives. While most value management resources fail to adequately address the unique role of risk and capital in banks, insurance, and asset management, this book fills the gap by providing concrete, business-specific information that connects management actions and value creation, helping readers to: Measure value accurately for more productive value-based management initiatives and evaluation of growth opportunities Apply a quantitative, risk-adjusted value management framework reconciled with the way financial services shares are valued by the market Develop a value set specific to the industry to inspire initiatives that increase the firm's value Study the quantitative and qualitative management frameworks that move CFOs and CROs from measurement to management The roles of CFO and CRO in financial firms have changed dramatically over the past decade, requiring business savvy and the ability to challenge the CEO. The Value Management Handbook provides the expert guidance that leads CFOs and CROs toward better information, better insight, and better decisions.

Commercial Bank Valuation

Author : William D. Miller
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 298 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Commercial Bank Valuation by : William D. Miller

Download or read book Commercial Bank Valuation written by William D. Miller and published by . This book was released on 1995-11-03 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The value of a bank is a complex and involved topic. Dertermining value requires an understanding of the purposed of the valuation, the underlying business, the assets involved, the outlook for the market served, competitive position, financial history, and a host of other factors. For example, establishing the value based solely on a bank's book value is a convenient shorthand, but not a good technique of establishing actual value. Regardless of the potential need for a proper valuation, commercial banks and bank holding companies have several characteristics that distinguishe them from other types of businesses and that influence the application of valuation techniques. It is critical to bear these in mind during the valuation process. Provides a thorough and practical discussion of valuation and techniques that apply to the banking and financial services industry. By necessity, however, the scope of the discussion goes beyond valuation. It is necessary to understand various transactional processes (e.g., the merger & acquisition process), target bank analysis, tax ramification, and specific accounting rules, in addition to valuation methodology. Consequently, this title is a beneficial primer for those with only a cursory knowledge of banking and valuation as well as a useful reference for seasoned professionals.

Transforming Financial Institutions

Author : Joerg Ruetschi
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119858836
Total Pages : 301 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (198 download)

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Book Synopsis Transforming Financial Institutions by : Joerg Ruetschi

Download or read book Transforming Financial Institutions written by Joerg Ruetschi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2022-04-26 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Transform your financial organisation’s formula for value creation with this insightful and strategic approach In Transforming Financial Institutions through Technology Innovation and Operational Change, visionary turnaround leader Joerg Ruetschi delivers a practical and globally relevant methodology and framework for value creation at financial institutions. The author demonstrates how financial organisations can combine finance strategy with asset-liability and technology management to differentiate their services and gain competitive advantage in a ferocious industry. In addition to exploring the four critical areas of strategic and competitive transformation — financial analysis, valuation, modeling, and stress — the book includes: Explanations of how to apply the managerial fundamentals discussed in the book in the real world, with descriptions of the principles for reorganization, wind-down and overall value creation An analysis of the four key emerging technologies in the financial industry: AI, blockchain, software, and infrastructure solutions, and their transformational impact Real-world case studies and examples on how financial institutions can be repositioned and rebuilt on a path of profitability Perfect for managers and decision makers in the financial services industry, Transforming Financial Institutions through Technology Innovation and Operational Change is also required reading for regulators, tech firms, and private equity and venture capital funds.

Integrated Bank Analysis and Valuation

Author : S. Chen
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1137307463
Total Pages : 317 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (373 download)

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Book Synopsis Integrated Bank Analysis and Valuation by : S. Chen

Download or read book Integrated Bank Analysis and Valuation written by S. Chen and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-11-21 with total page 317 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading analyst Sandy Chen provides a thorough guide to the analysis and valuation of banks. Unlike other businesses and institutions, banks have a number of unique characteristics that need to be taken into account when performing a valuation and as such traditional valuation methodologies are unsuitable and more specialized techniques required.

Business Valuation

Author : Z. Christopher Mercer
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470178663
Total Pages : 291 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Valuation by : Z. Christopher Mercer

Download or read book Business Valuation written by Z. Christopher Mercer and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-09-24 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Business Valuation: An Integrated Theory, 2nd Edition "The Second Edition of Business Valuation: An Integrated Theory manages to present the theoretical analysis of valuation from the first edition and expand on that discussion by providing additional guidance on implementing the relevant valuation theories, notably in its expanded discussion of the Quantitative Marketability Discount Model." —Dr. David Tabak, NERA Economic Consulting Your Essential Valuations Reference Whether you are an accountant, auditor, financial planner, or attorney, Business Valuation: An Integrated Theory, 2nd Edition enables you to understand and correctly apply fundamental valuation concepts. Thoroughly revised and expanded, the Second Edition demystifies modern valuation theory, bringing together various valuation concepts to reveal a comprehensive picture of business valuation. With the implementation of new accounting pronouncements mandating the recognition of numerous assets and liabilities at fair value, it has become critical for CPAs charged with auditing financial statements to understand valuation concepts. With thoughtful and balanced treatment of both theory and application, this essential guide reveals: The "GRAPES of Value"-Growth, Risk and Reward, Alternative Investments, Present Value, Expectations, and Sanity The relationship between the Gordon Model and the discounted cash flow model of valuation The basis for commonly applied, but commonly misunderstood valuation premiums and discounts A practical perspective on the analysis of potential business acquisitions Grounded in the real world of market participants, Business Valuation, 2nd Edition addresses your need to understand business valuation, providing a means of articulating valuation concepts to help you negotiate value-enhancing transactions. If you want to get back to valuation basics, this useful reference will become your guide to defining the various levels of value and developing a better understanding of business appraisal reports.

Bank Valuation and Value-Based Management: Deposit and Loan Pricing, Performance Evaluation, and Risk Management

Author : Jean Dermine
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN 13 : 0071624996
Total Pages : 450 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (716 download)

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Book Synopsis Bank Valuation and Value-Based Management: Deposit and Loan Pricing, Performance Evaluation, and Risk Management by : Jean Dermine

Download or read book Bank Valuation and Value-Based Management: Deposit and Loan Pricing, Performance Evaluation, and Risk Management written by Jean Dermine and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2009-09 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bank Valuation & Value-Based Management provides bankers, bank regulators, auditors, and risk managers with foundational concepts and practical tools for effectively managing a bank. An expert in asset and liability management, European financial markets, and banking theory, Jean Dermine provides rigorous foundations to discuss asset and liability management at a global level, with an integrated focus on an institution’s banking book. He covers bank valuation, fund transfer pricing, deposit and loan pricing, risk management, and performance measurement, and addresses two high-profile issues for banks worldwide: portfolio credit risk and liquidity risk. This thorough and innovative guide presents insightful coverage on the hazards of measuring portfolio credit risk, the impact of liquidity risk on fund transfer pricing, and the practice of performance measurement in the banking industry. Numerous real-world examples from the U.S. subprime crisis help illustrate the nature and dynamics of these issues. Inside, you will find a framework for discussing such managerial issues as: Bank valuation Fund transfer pricing Deposit pricing Capital management Loan pricing and provisioning Securitization Measurement of interest rate risk Performance measurement At the same time that it helps readers develop an intuitive sense for asset-liability management, this practical book follows through with rigorous mathematical formulas and examples from the international banking community. In addition,exercises are incorporated throughout the text to facilitate discussions of how theoretical concepts can be applied to real-world problems. This authoritative guide to bank management also features an exclusive companion Web site, www.mhprofessional.com/bankvaluation, which includes additional chapters and exercise solutions that serve as key supplements to the core text. Creating value in banking depends on a rocksolid understanding of what drives value and the right valuation model to help make the tough decisions that will enhance shareholder value. Bank Valuation & Value-Based Management is your one-stop reference for each of these critical issues.

Financial Modeling and Valuation

Author : Paul Pignataro
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118558766
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (185 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Modeling and Valuation by : Paul Pignataro

Download or read book Financial Modeling and Valuation written by Paul Pignataro and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-07-10 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by the Founder and CEO of the prestigious New York School of Finance, this book schools you in the fundamental tools for accurately assessing the soundness of a stock investment. Built around a full-length case study of Wal-Mart, it shows you how to perform an in-depth analysis of that company's financial standing, walking you through all the steps of developing a sophisticated financial model as done by professional Wall Street analysts. You will construct a full scale financial model and valuation step-by-step as you page through the book. When we ran this analysis in January of 2012, we estimated the stock was undervalued. Since the first run of the analysis, the stock has increased 35 percent. Re-evaluating Wal-Mart 9months later, we will step through the techniques utilized by Wall Street analysts to build models on and properly value business entities. Step-by-step financial modeling - taught using downloadable Wall Street models, you will construct the model step by step as you page through the book. Hot keys and explicit Excel instructions aid even the novice excel modeler. Model built complete with Income Statement, Cash Flow Statement, Balance Sheet, Balance Sheet Balancing Techniques, Depreciation Schedule (complete with accelerating depreciation and deferring taxes), working capital schedule, debt schedule, handling circular references, and automatic debt pay downs. Illustrative concepts including detailing model flows help aid in conceptual understanding. Concepts are reiterated and honed, perfect for a novice yet detailed enough for a professional. Model built direct from Wal-Mart public filings, searching through notes, performing research, and illustrating techniques to formulate projections. Includes in-depth coverage of valuation techniques commonly used by Wall Street professionals. Illustrative comparable company analyses - built the right way, direct from historical financials, calculating LTM (Last Twelve Month) data, calendarization, and properly smoothing EBITDA and Net Income. Precedent transactions analysis - detailing how to extract proper metrics from relevant proxy statements Discounted cash flow analysis - simplifying and illustrating how a DCF is utilized, how unlevered free cash flow is derived, and the meaning of weighted average cost of capital (WACC) Step-by-step we will come up with a valuation on Wal-Mart Chapter end questions, practice models, additional case studies and common interview questions (found in the companion website) help solidify the techniques honed in the book; ideal for universities or business students looking to break into the investment banking field.

Creating Strategic Value through Financial Technology

Author : Jay D. Wilson, Jr.
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119243874
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (192 download)

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Book Synopsis Creating Strategic Value through Financial Technology by : Jay D. Wilson, Jr.

Download or read book Creating Strategic Value through Financial Technology written by Jay D. Wilson, Jr. and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-03-22 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lessons in innovation from key FinTech trends and successes Creating Strategic Value through Financial Technology explores the growing Financial Technology (FinTech) industry to provide insight on how traditional financial institutions and FinTech companies can boost innovation and enhance valuation in a complex regulatory environment. In plumbing the depth and breadth of several niches within in the FinTech sector, author Jay Wilson uncovers key themes that have contributed to the industry's success; in this book, he maps them together to provide useful guideposts for investors, entrepreneurs, and traditional institutions looking to facilitate growth as technology and financial services collide. With an expert's perspective on FinTech history and outlook, certain trends and examples of value-enhancing strategies stand out. FinTech niches covered include: payments, crowdfunding, alternative/marketplace lending, the blockchain, and technology solutions in the context of banking, insurance, and investment companies. There is no denying the growing importance of technology in the financial services industry, and the FinTech sector offers valuable solutions for a diverse array of financial services providers and their customers. This book guides you through several niches of the FinTech sector, and highlights the most important takeaways from recent endeavors. Navigate the financial technology sector Enhance customer and product offerings Improve efficiency and cost structure Enhance profitability and company valuation from the intersection of technology and finance Innovation and customer preference is a key driver of FinTech's growth. Customers are demanding better value and convenience, and the organizations that provide it are reaping the rewards of growth. As financial regulations grow more and more complex, and customers are presented with more and more options, it is becoming imperative for traditional institutions to modernize processes and carve out a place in the future of financial services. Creating Strategic Value through Financial Technology provides a handbook for navigating that space, with practical guidance on how FinTech companies and traditional financial institutions can enhance profitability and valuation from the trends.

Accounting discretion of banks during a financial crisis

Author : Mr.Luc Laeven
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451873549
Total Pages : 43 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Accounting discretion of banks during a financial crisis by : Mr.Luc Laeven

Download or read book Accounting discretion of banks during a financial crisis written by Mr.Luc Laeven and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-09-01 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper shows that banks use accounting discretion to overstate the value of distressed assets. Banks' balance sheets overvalue real estate-related assets compared to the market value of these assets, especially during the U.S. mortgage crisis. Share prices of banks with large exposure to mortgage-backed securities also react favorably to recent changes in accounting rules that relax fair-value accounting, and these banks provision less for bad loans. Furthermore, distressed banks use discretion in the classification of mortgage-backed securities to inflate their books. Our results indicate that banks' balance sheets offer a distorted view of the financial health of the banks.

Bovernance and Bank Valuation

Author : Gerard Caprio
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 49 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Bovernance and Bank Valuation by : Gerard Caprio

Download or read book Bovernance and Bank Valuation written by Gerard Caprio and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2003 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Which public policies and ownership structures enhance the governance of banks? This paper constructs a new database on the ownership of banks internationally and then assesses the ramifications of ownership, shareholder protection laws, and supervisory/regulatory policies on bank valuations. Except in a few countries with very strong shareholder protection laws, banks are not widely held, but rather families or the State tend to control banks. We find that (i) larger cash flow rights by the controlling owner boosts valuations, (ii) stronger shareholder protection laws increase valuations, and (iii) greater cash flow rights mitigate the adverse effects of weak shareholder protection laws on bank valuations. These results are consistent with the views that expropriation of minority shareholders is important internationally, that laws can restrain this expropriation, and concentrated cash flow rights represent an important mechanism for governing banks. Finally, the evidence does not support the view that empowering official supervisory and regulatory agencies will increase the market valuation of banks"--NBER website

Financial Institutions, Valuations, Mergers, and Acquisitions

Author : Zabihollah Rezaee
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0471046337
Total Pages : 457 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Institutions, Valuations, Mergers, and Acquisitions by : Zabihollah Rezaee

Download or read book Financial Institutions, Valuations, Mergers, and Acquisitions written by Zabihollah Rezaee and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-03-29 with total page 457 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: THE DEFINITIVE GUIDE TO NAVIGATING TODAY'S FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY From "one-stop shopping" for financial services to major structural shifts within the industry, rapid changes in information technology, trends toward business combinations, statutory laws, and global competition have contributed to breaking down the geographic and product barriers that once separated traditional financial institutions from other financial entities. This complete authoritative resource is designed for all financial professionals involved in business valuations, mergers, and acquisitions, and includes: * How operations are regulated * How organizations are valued and why they merge * Related accounting standards * Merger and acquisition processes * The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Modernization Act of 1999 * Target bank analysis and tax requirements . . . and much more. Written by an expert in the field, Financial Institutions, Valuations, Mergers, and Acquisitions is an essential tool for keeping up with the increasing and crucial changes in the financial services industry.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018

Author : Martin Eichenbaum
Publisher : University of Chicago Press Journals
ISBN 13 : 9780226645728
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (457 download)

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Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018 by : Martin Eichenbaum

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018 written by Martin Eichenbaum and published by University of Chicago Press Journals. This book was released on 2019-08-05 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains six studies on current topics in macroeconomics. The first shows that while assuming rational expectations is unrealistic, a finite-horizon forward planning model can yield results similar to those of a rational expectations equilibrium. The second explores the aggregate risk of the U.S. financial sector, and in particular whether it is safer now than before the 2008 financial crisis. The third analyzes “factorless income,” output that is not measured as capital or labor income. Next, a study argues that the financial crisis increased the perceived risk of a very bad economic and financial outcome, and explores the propagation of large, rare shocks. The next paper documents the substantial recent changes in the manufacturing sector and the decline in employment among prime-aged Americans since 2000. The last paper analyzes the dynamic macroeconomic effects of border adjustment taxes.