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Using Counterfactual Simulations To Assess The Danger Of Contagion In Interbank Markets
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Book Synopsis Using Counterfactual Simulations to Assess the Danger of Contagion in Interbank Markets by : Christian Upper
Download or read book Using Counterfactual Simulations to Assess the Danger of Contagion in Interbank Markets written by Christian Upper and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Researchers at central banks increasingly turn to counterfactual simulations to estimate the danger of contagion owing to exposures in the interbank loan market. The present paper summarises the findings of such simulations, provides a critical assessment of the modelling assumptions on which they are based, and discusses their use in financial stability analysis. On the whole, such simulations suggest that contagious defaults are unlikely, but cannot be fully ruled out, at least in some countries. If contagion does take place, then it could lead to the breakdown of a substantial fraction of the banking system, thus imposing high costs to society. However, when interpreting these results, one has to bear in mind the potential bias caused by the very strong assumptions underlying the simulations. While robustness tests indicate that the models might be able to correctly predict whether or not contagion could be an issue and, possibly, also identify critical institutions, they are less suited for stress testing or for the analysis of policy options in crises, primarily due to their lack of behavioural foundations. Going forward, more work is needed on how to attach probabilities to the individual scenarios and on the microfoundations of the models.
Book Synopsis CoMap: Mapping Contagion in the Euro Area Banking Sector by : Mehmet Ziya Gorpe
Download or read book CoMap: Mapping Contagion in the Euro Area Banking Sector written by Mehmet Ziya Gorpe and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-05-10 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a novel approach to investigate and model the network of euro area banks’ large exposures within the global banking system. Drawing on a unique dataset, the paper documents the degree of interconnectedness and systemic risk of the euro area banking system based on bilateral linkages. We develop a Contagion Mapping model fully calibrated with bank-level data to study the contagion potential of an exogenous shock via credit and funding risks. We find that tipping points shifting the euro area banking system from a less vulnerable state to a highly vulnerable state are a non-linear function of the combination of network structures and bank-specific characteristics.
Book Synopsis Cross-Border Financial Surveillance by : Marco A Espinosa-Vega
Download or read book Cross-Border Financial Surveillance written by Marco A Espinosa-Vega and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-04-01 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Effective cross-border financial surveillance requires the monitoring of direct and indirect systemic linkages. This paper illustrates how network analysis could make a significant contribution in this regard by simulating different credit and funding shocks to the banking systems of a number of selected countries. After that, we show that the inclusion of risk transfers could modify the risk profile of entire financial systems, and thus an enriched simulation algorithm able to account for risk transfers is proposed. Finally, we discuss how some of the limitations of our simulations are a reflection of existing information and data gaps, and thus view these shortcomings as a call to improve the collection and analysis of data on cross-border financial exposures.
Book Synopsis Interconnectedness and Contagion Analysis: A Practical Framework by : Mrs.Jana Bricco
Download or read book Interconnectedness and Contagion Analysis: A Practical Framework written by Mrs.Jana Bricco and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-11 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The analysis of interconnectedness and contagion is an important part of the financial stability and risk assessment of a country’s financial system. This paper offers detailed and practical guidance on how to conduct a comprehensive analysis of interconnectedness and contagion for a country’s financial system under various circumstances. We survey current approaches at the IMF for analyzing interconnectedness within the interbank, cross-sector and cross-border dimensions through an overview and examples of the data and methodologies used in the Financial Sector Assessment Program. Finally, this paper offers practical advice on how to interpret results and discusses potential financial stability policy recommendations that can be drawn from this type of in-depth analysis.
Book Synopsis Cross-Border Interbank Contagion Risk Analysis by : Roman Matousek
Download or read book Cross-Border Interbank Contagion Risk Analysis written by Roman Matousek and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-07-30 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Element provides a detailed overview of the structural changes in the Asia-Pacific region from the early 2000s onwards. It reviews the most relevant literature on this important topic. The following two research areas are explored: first, by deploying visual network analysis (VNA), we analyse cross-border interbank claims and liabilities of the individual countries located in the Asia-Pacific region. Such an analysis evaluates interbank exposures to systematically important banks within the specific market. The important advantage of VNA is that it allows us to examine the 'hierarchical' cross-country interbank contagion risk that seems to have been neglected in similar studies. Secondly, we evaluate the contagion risk to the individual countries spreading from the financial centres in Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, New York and London. The analysis unveils links and statistical factors that could be used as a key tool for detecting the potential triggers of systemic risk.
Book Synopsis Assessing Financial Contagion in the Interbank Market by : Paolo Emilio Mistrulli
Download or read book Assessing Financial Contagion in the Interbank Market written by Paolo Emilio Mistrulli and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Bank Insolvencies Cross-country Experience by : Gerard Caprio (Jr.), Daniela Klingebiel
Download or read book Bank Insolvencies Cross-country Experience written by Gerard Caprio (Jr.), Daniela Klingebiel and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1996 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market by : Christian Upper
Download or read book Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market written by Christian Upper and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit risk associated with interbank lending may lead to domino effects, where the failureKreditrisiken aus Interbankbeziehungen können zu Dominoeffekten führen indem der.
Book Synopsis Simulation in Computational Finance and Economics: Tools and Emerging Applications by : Alexandrova-Kabadjova, Biliana
Download or read book Simulation in Computational Finance and Economics: Tools and Emerging Applications written by Alexandrova-Kabadjova, Biliana and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2012-08-31 with total page 459 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simulation has become a tool difficult to substitute in many scientific areas like manufacturing, medicine, telecommunications, games, etc. Finance is one of such areas where simulation is a commonly used tool; for example, we can find Monte Carlo simulation in many financial applications like market risk analysis, portfolio optimization, credit risk related applications, etc. Simulation in Computational Finance and Economics: Tools and Emerging Applications presents a thorough collection of works, covering several rich and highly productive areas of research including Risk Management, Agent-Based Simulation, and Payment Methods and Systems, topics that have found new motivations after the strong recession experienced in the last few years. Despite the fact that simulation is widely accepted as a prominent tool, dealing with a simulation-based project requires specific management abilities of the researchers. Economic researchers will find an excellent reference to introduce them to the computational simulation models. The works presented in this book can be used as an inspiration for economic researchers interested in creating their own computational models in their respective fields.
Book Synopsis Stress Testing at the IMF by : Mr.Tobias Adrian
Download or read book Stress Testing at the IMF written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-05 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.
Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Banking by : Allen N. Berger
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Banking written by Allen N. Berger and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 1105 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Oxford Handbook of Banking, Second Edition provides an overview and analysis of developments and research in banking written by leading researchers in the field. This handbook will appeal to graduate students of economics, banking and finance, academics, practitioners, regulators, and policy makers. Consequently, the book strikes a balance between abstract theory, empirical analysis, and practitioner, and policy-related material. The Handbook is split into five parts. Part I, The Theory of Banking, examines the role of banks in the wider financial system, why banks exist, how they function, and their corporate governance and risk management practices. Part II deals with Bank Operations and Performance. A range of issues are covered including bank performance, financial innovation, and technological change. Aspects relating to small business, consumer, and mortgage lending are analysed together with securitization, shadow banking, and payment systems. Part III entitled Regulatory and Policy Perspectives discusses central banking, monetary policy transmission, market discipline, and prudential regulation and supervision. Part IV of the book covers various Macroeconomic Perspectives in Banking. This part includes a discussion of systemic risk and banking and sovereign crises, the role of the state in finance and development as well as how banks influence real economic activity. The final Part V examines International Differences in Banking Structures and Environments. This part of the Handbook examines banking systems in the United States, European Union, Japan, Africa, Transition countries, and the developing nations of Asia and Latin America.
Book Synopsis A Guide to IMF Stress Testing by : Ms.Li L Ong
Download or read book A Guide to IMF Stress Testing written by Ms.Li L Ong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-23 with total page 610 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF has had extensive involvement in the stress testing of financial systems in its member countries. This book presents the methods and models that have been developed by IMF staff over the years and that can be applied to the gamut of financial systems. An added resource for readers is the companion CD-Rom, which makes available the toolkit with some of the models presented in the book (also located at elibrary.imf.org/page/stress-test-toolkit).
Book Synopsis Complexity and Geographical Economics by : Pasquale Commendatore
Download or read book Complexity and Geographical Economics written by Pasquale Commendatore and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-02-17 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The uneven geographical distribution of economic activities is a huge challenge worldwide and also for the European Union. In Krugman’s New Economic Geography economic systems have a simple spatial structure. This book shows that more sophisticated models should visualise the EU as an evolving trade network with a specific topology and different aggregation levels. At the highest level, economic geography models give a bird eye’s view of spatial dynamics. At a medium level, institutions shape the economy and the structure of (financial and labour) markets. At the lowest level, individual decisions interact with the economic, social and institutional environment; the focus is on firms’ decision on location and innovation. Such multilevel models exhibit complex dynamic patterns – path dependence, cumulative causation, hysteresis – on a network structure; and specific analytic tools are necessary for studying strategic interaction, heterogeneity and nonlinearities.
Book Synopsis Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives by : Ms.Sheri M. Markose
Download or read book Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives written by Ms.Sheri M. Markose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-30 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial network analysis is used to provide firm level bottom-up holistic visualizations of interconnections of financial obligations in global OTC derivatives markets. This helps to identify Systemically Important Financial Intermediaries (SIFIs), analyse the nature of contagion propagation, and also monitor and design ways of increasing robustness in the network. Based on 2009 FDIC and individually collected firm level data covering gross notional, gross positive (negative) fair value and the netted derivatives assets and liabilities for 202 financial firms which includes 20 SIFIs, the bilateral flows are empirically calibrated to reflect data-based constraints. This produces a tiered network with a distinct highly clustered central core of 12 SIFIs that account for 78 percent of all bilateral exposures and a large number of financial intermediaries (FIs) on the periphery. The topology of the network results in the “Too- Interconnected-To-Fail” (TITF) phenomenon in that the failure of any member of the central tier will bring down other members with the contagion coming to an abrupt end when the ‘super-spreaders’ have demised. As these SIFIs account for the bulk of capital in the system, ipso facto no bank among the top tier can be allowed to fail, highlighting the untenable implicit socialized guarantees needed for these markets to operate at their current levels. Systemic risk costs of highly connected SIFIs nodes are not priced into their holding of capital or collateral. An eigenvector centrality based ‘super-spreader’ tax has been designed and tested for its capacity to reduce the potential socialized losses from failure of SIFIs.
Book Synopsis Advances in Computational Social Science by : Shu-Heng Chen
Download or read book Advances in Computational Social Science written by Shu-Heng Chen and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-05-22 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is a post-conference publication of the 4th World Congress on Social Simulation (WCSS), with contents selected from among the 80 papers originally presented at the conference. WCSS is a biennial event, jointly organized by three scientific communities in computational social science, namely, the Pacific-Asian Association for Agent-Based Approach in Social Systems Sciences (PAAA), the European Social Simulation Association (ESSA), and the Computational Social Science Society of the Americas (CSSSA). It is, therefore, currently the most prominent conference in the area of agent-based social simulation. The papers selected for this volume give a holistic view of the current development of social simulation, indicating the directions for future research and creating an important archival document and milestone in the history of computational social science. Specifically, the papers included here cover substantial progress in artificial financial markets, macroeconomic forecasting, supply chain management, bank networks, social networks, urban planning, social norms and group formation, cross-cultural studies, political party competition, voting behavior, computational demography, computational anthropology, evolution of languages, public health and epidemics, AIDS, security and terrorism, methodological and epistemological issues, empirical-based agent-based modeling, modeling of experimental social science, gaming simulation, cognitive agents, and participatory simulation. Furthermore, pioneering studies in some new research areas, such as the theoretical foundations of social simulation and categorical social science, also are included in the volume.
Book Synopsis Banking Systems Simulation by : Stefano Zedda
Download or read book Banking Systems Simulation written by Stefano Zedda and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-03-16 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents information sources and methodologies for modeling and simulating banking system stability Combining both academic and institutional knowledge and experience, Banking Systems Simulation: Theory, Practice, and Application of Modeling Shocks, Losses, and Contagion presents banking system risk modeling clearly within a theoretical framework. Written from the global financial perspective, the book explores single bank risk, common bank exposures, and contagion, and how these apply on a systemic level. Zedda approaches these simulation methods logically by providing the basic building blocks of modeling and simulation, and then delving further into the individual techniques that make up a systems model. In addition, the author provides clear and detailed explanations of the foundational research into the mathematical and legal concepts used to analyze banking risk problems, measures and data for representing the main banking risk sources, and the major problems researchers are likely to encounter. There are numerous software descriptions throughout, with references and tools to help readers gain a proper understanding of the presented techniques and possibly develop new applications and research. The book concludes with an appendix that features real-world datasets and models. In addition, this book: • Provides a comprehensive overview of methods for analyzing models and simulating risk for banking and financial systems • Provides a clear presentation of the technical and legal concepts used in banking regulation • Presents unique insights from an expert’s perspective, with specific coverage of assessing risks and developing what-if analyses at the systems level • Concludes with a discussion of applications, including banking systems regulation what-if tests, cost-benefit analysis, evaluations of banking systems stability effects on public finances, dimensioning, and risk-based contributions for Deposit Guarantee Schemes (DGS) and Resolution Funds Banking Systems Simulation: Theory, Practice, and Application of Modeling Shocks, Losses, and Contagion is ideal for banking researchers focusing on computational methods of analysis as well as an appropriate reference for graduate-level students in banking, finance, and computational methods. Stefano Zedda is Researcher in Financial Mathematics at the University of Cagliari in Italy and qualified as associate professor in banking and corporate finance. His research is mainly focused on quantitative analyses for banking and finance, with a particular focus on banking systems modeling and simulation. In 2008, Zedda developed the mathematical modeling and software implementation of the Systemic Model for Banking Originated Losses (SYMBOL), further developed during his activity at the European Commission. The Commission subsequently adopted it as a standard tool for testing banking regulation proposals. Stefano Zedda’s research interests include banking, financial mathematics, and statistics, specifically simulation of banking and financial systems stability, banking regulation impact assessment, and interactive agent simulation.
Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Banking, Second Edition by : Allen N. Berger
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Banking, Second Edition written by Allen N. Berger and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2014-11-27 with total page 1105 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Oxford Handbook of Banking, Second Edition provides an overview and analysis of developments and research in banking written by leading researchers in the field. This handbook will appeal to graduate students of economics, banking and finance, academics, practitioners, regulators, and policy makers. Consequently, the book strikes a balance between abstract theory, empirical analysis, and practitioner, and policy-related material. The Handbook is split into five parts. Part I, The Theory of Banking, examines the role of banks in the wider financial system, why banks exist, how they function, and their corporate governance and risk management practices. Part II deals with Bank Operations and Performance. A range of issues are covered including bank performance, financial innovation, and technological change. Aspects relating to small business, consumer, and mortgage lending are analysed together with securitization, shadow banking, and payment systems. Part III entitled Regulatory and Policy Perspectives discusses central banking, monetary policy transmission, market discipline, and prudential regulation and supervision. Part IV of the book covers various Macroeconomic Perspectives in Banking. This part includes a discussion of systemic risk and banking and sovereign crises, the role of the state in finance and development as well as how banks influence real economic activity. The final Part V examines International Differences in Banking Structures and Environments. This part of the Handbook examines banking systems in the United States, European Union, Japan, Africa, Transition countries, and the developing nations of Asia and Latin America.
