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Updating An Expert Elicitation In The Light Of New Data
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Book Synopsis Climate Uncertainty and Risk by : Judith Curry
Download or read book Climate Uncertainty and Risk written by Judith Curry and published by Anthem Press. This book was released on 2023-06-06 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: World leaders have made a forceful statement that climate change is the greatest challenge facing humanity in the 21st century. However, little progress has been made in implementing policies to address climate change. In Climate Uncertainty and Risk, eminent climate scientist Judith Curry shows how we can break this gridlock. This book helps us rethink the climate change problem, the risks we are facing and how we can respond to these challenges. Understanding the deep uncertainty surrounding the climate change problem helps us to better assess the risks. This book shows how uncertainty and disagreement can be part of the decision-making process. It provides a road map for formulating pragmatic solutions. Climate Uncertainty and Risk is essential reading for those concerned about the environment, professionals dealing with climate change and our national leaders.
Book Synopsis Engineering Design Reliability Handbook by : Efstratios Nikolaidis
Download or read book Engineering Design Reliability Handbook written by Efstratios Nikolaidis and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2004-12-22 with total page 1216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Researchers in the engineering industry and academia are making important advances on reliability-based design and modeling of uncertainty when data is limited. Non deterministic approaches have enabled industries to save billions by reducing design and warranty costs and by improving quality. Considering the lack of comprehensive and defini
Download or read book Elicitation written by Luis C. Dias and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-16 with total page 542 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.
Book Synopsis Report to the U.S. Congress and the U.S. Secretary of Energy by : United States. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board
Download or read book Report to the U.S. Congress and the U.S. Secretary of Energy written by United States. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Fall Meeting by : American Geophysical Union. Meeting
Download or read book Fall Meeting written by American Geophysical Union. Meeting and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 556 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Publisher :Food & Agriculture Org. ISBN 13 :9789251055748 Total Pages :124 pages Book Rating :4.0/5 (557 download)
Book Synopsis Enterobacter Sakazakii and Salmonella in Powdered Infant Formula by : Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Download or read book Enterobacter Sakazakii and Salmonella in Powdered Infant Formula written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2006 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Enterobacter sakazakii and Salmonella are the primary pathogens of concern with regard to powdered infant formula. Guidance for the control of these hazards is currently being developed by Codex Alimentarius through the revision of the Recommended International Code of Hygienic Practices for Foods for Infants and Children. FAO and WHO are providing the scientific advice to facilitate this work. FAO and WHO implemented the first meeting on this issue in 2004, the outcome of which is reported in number six of this series. This report builds on the information and advice provided in 2004. Following the analysis of new and additional information and the development of a more extensive risk assessment on E. sakazakii in powdered infant formula, this volume aims to provide the most up-to- date information on these microorganisms, the risk associated with their presence in powdered infant formula and scientific advice to facilitate the management of that risk.--Publisher's description.
Download or read book Risk Assessment written by Marvin Rausand and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-03-03 with total page 737 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduces risk assessment with key theories, proven methods, and state-of-the-art applications Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications remains one of the few textbooks to address current risk analysis and risk assessment with an emphasis on the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice—from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. Updated to align with ISO 31000 and other amended standards, this all-new 2nd Edition discusses the main ideas and techniques for assessing risk today. The book begins with an introduction of risk analysis, assessment, and management, and includes a new section on the history of risk analysis. It covers hazards and threats, how to measure and evaluate risk, and risk management. It also adds new sections on risk governance and risk-informed decision making; combining accident theories and criteria for evaluating data sources; and subjective probabilities. The risk assessment process is covered, as are how to establish context; planning and preparing; and identification, analysis, and evaluation of risk. Risk Assessment also offers new coverage of safe job analysis and semi-quantitative methods, and it discusses barrier management and HRA methods for offshore application. Finally, it looks at dynamic risk analysis, security and life-cycle use of risk. Serves as a practical and modern guide to the current applications of risk analysis and assessment, supports key standards, and supplements legislation related to risk analysis Updated and revised to align with ISO 31000 Risk Management and other new standards and includes new chapters on security, dynamic risk analysis, as well as life-cycle use of risk analysis Provides in-depth coverage on hazard identification, methodologically outlining the steps for use of checklists, conducting preliminary hazard analysis, and job safety analysis Presents new coverage on the history of risk analysis, criteria for evaluating data sources, risk-informed decision making, subjective probabilities, semi-quantitative methods, and barrier management Contains more applications and examples, new and revised problems throughout, and detailed appendices that outline key terms and acronyms Supplemented with a book companion website containing Solutions to problems, presentation material and an Instructor Manual Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition is ideal for courses on risk analysis/risk assessment and systems engineering at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an excellent reference and resource for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who carry out risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.
Book Synopsis Environmental Value Transfer: Issues and Methods by : Ståle Navrud
Download or read book Environmental Value Transfer: Issues and Methods written by Ståle Navrud and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-05-11 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume offers a snapshot of the research that is ongoing in the area of value transfer. It provides relevant input for increasing the quality of cost-benefit analyses of projects with environmental and health impacts. The volume includes papers by some of the most influential authors in the area and covers the latest developments in the field.
Book Synopsis Database and Expert Systems Applications by : A Min Tjoa
Download or read book Database and Expert Systems Applications written by A Min Tjoa and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 569 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Use and development of database and expert systems can be found in all fields of computer science. The aim of this book is to present a large spectrum of already implemented or just being developed database and expert systems. Contributions cover new requirements, concepts for implementations (e.g. languages, models, storage structures), management of meta data, system architectures, and experiences gained by using traditional databases in as many areas of applications as possibble (at least in the fields listed). The aim of the book is to inspire a fruitful dialogue between developement in practice, users of database and expert systems, and scientists working in the field.
Book Synopsis Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Uncertainty by : Rudolf Kruse
Download or read book Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Uncertainty written by Rudolf Kruse and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1991-10 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A variety of formalisms have been developed to address such aspects of handling imperfect knowledge as uncertainty, vagueness, imprecision, incompleteness, and partial inconsistency. Some of the most familiar approaches in this research field are nonmonotonic logics, modal logics, probability theory (Bayesian and non-Bayesian), belief function theory, and fuzzy sets and possibility theory. ESPRIT Basic Research Action 3085, entitled Defeasible Reasoning and Uncertainty Management Systems (DRUMS), aims to contribute to the elucidation of similarities and differences between these formalisms. It consists of 11 active European research groups. The European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Uncertainty (ESQAU) provides a forum for these groups to meet and discuss their scientific results. This volume contains 42 contributions accepted for the ESQAU meeting held in October 1991 in Marseille, together with 12 articles presenting the activities of the DRUMS groups and two invited presentations.
Book Synopsis Mathematical Concepts and Applications in Mechanical Engineering and Mechatronics by : Ram, Mangey
Download or read book Mathematical Concepts and Applications in Mechanical Engineering and Mechatronics written by Ram, Mangey and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2016-10-25 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The application of mathematical concepts has proven to be beneficial within a number of different industries. In particular, these concepts have created significant developments in the engineering field. Mathematical Concepts and Applications in Mechanical Engineering and Mechatronics is an authoritative reference source for the latest scholarly research on the use of applied mathematics to enhance the current trends and productivity in mechanical engineering. Highlighting theoretical foundations, real-world cases, and future directions, this book is ideally designed for researchers, practitioners, professionals, and students of mechatronics and mechanical engineering.
Book Synopsis Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis by : Anca M. Hanea
Download or read book Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Book Synopsis Strategic Engineering for Cloud Computing and Big Data Analytics by : Amin Hosseinian-Far
Download or read book Strategic Engineering for Cloud Computing and Big Data Analytics written by Amin Hosseinian-Far and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-02-13 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book demonstrates the use of a wide range of strategic engineering concepts, theories and applied case studies to improve the safety, security and sustainability of complex and large-scale engineering and computer systems. It first details the concepts of system design, life cycle, impact assessment and security to show how these ideas can be brought to bear on the modeling, analysis and design of information systems with a focused view on cloud-computing systems and big data analytics. This informative book is a valuable resource for graduate students, researchers and industry-based practitioners working in engineering, information and business systems as well as strategy.
Book Synopsis Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences , Update by : Samuel Kotz
Download or read book Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences , Update written by Samuel Kotz and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 1997 with total page 936 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Keeping pace with the latest developments in all branches of statistical science. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences is the number one source of information on statistical theory, methods, and applications for researchers and clinicians. This new volume is the last of three updates designed to bring the Encyclopedia in line with new and emerging topics and important advances in statistical science made over the past decade. Each self-contained entry is written by a leader in the field and easily understood by readers with a modest statistical background. In addition to the main selections, which feature fascinating discussions of developments in various branches of the statistical sciences, readers will find a series of shorter entries ranging in subject matter from the lives of pioneers in statistics to updates of earlier articles and reviews of statistical agencies and journals. Up-to-date bibliographies, thorough cross-referencing, and extensive indexing facilitate quick access to specific information and provide an indispensable platform for further study and research. A cumulative index and listing of all the entries in the 13 volumes of the Encyclopedia, together with the corresponding authors, are included. With the publication of this update installment, the Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences retains its position as the only cutting-edge reference of choice for those working in statistics, probability theory, biostatistics, quality control, and economics and in applications of statistical methods in sociology, engineering, computer and communication science, biomedicine, psychology, and many other areas.
Book Synopsis Sociocognitive Foundations of Educational Measurement by : Robert J. Mislevy
Download or read book Sociocognitive Foundations of Educational Measurement written by Robert J. Mislevy and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-04-09 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Several key developments challenge the field of educational measurement today: demands for tests at larger scales with higher stakes, an improved understanding of how people develop capabilities, and new technologies for interactive digital assessments. Sociocognitive Foundations of Educational Measurement integrates new developments in educational measurement and educational psychology in order to provide researchers, testing professionals, and students with an innovative sociocognitive perspective on assessment. This comprehensive volume begins with a broad explanation of the sociocognitive perspective and the foundations of assessment, then provides a series of focused applications to major topics such as assessment arguments, validity, fairness, interactive assessment, and a conception of "measurement" in educational assessment. Classical test theory, item response theory, categorical models, mixture models, cognitive diagnosis models, and Bayesian networks are explored from the resulting perspective. Ideal for specialists in these areas, graduate students, developers, and scholars in both educational measurement and fields that contribute to a sociocognitive perspective, this book consolidates nearly a decade of research into a fresh perspective on educational measurement.
Book Synopsis Experts in Uncertainty by : Roger M. Cooke
Download or read book Experts in Uncertainty written by Roger M. Cooke and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1991-10-24 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
Book Synopsis Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences, Volume 3 by :
Download or read book Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences, Volume 3 written by and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-12-16 with total page 706 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ENCYCLOPEDIA OF STATISTICAL SCIENCES
