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Uncertainty And Unemployment The Effects Of Aggregate And Sectoral Channels
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Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Unemployment by : Sangyup Choi
Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Unemployment by : Sangyup Choi
Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Aggregate Uncertainty and Sectoral Productivity Growth by : Sangyup Choi
Download or read book Aggregate Uncertainty and Sectoral Productivity Growth written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-16 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that an increase in aggregate uncertainty—measured by stock market volatility—reduces productivity growth more in industries that depend heavily on external finance. This effect is larger during recessions, when financing constraints are more likely to be binding, than during expansions. Our statistical method—a difference-in-difference approach using productivity growth for 25 industries for 18 advanced economies over the period 1985-2010—mitigates concerns with omitted variable bias and reverse causality. The results are robust to the inclusion of other sources of interaction effects, such as financial development (Rajan and Zingales, 1998) and counter-cyclical fiscal policy (Aghion et al., 2014). The results also hold if economic policy uncertainty (Baker et al., 2015) is used instead of stock market volatility as the measure of aggregate uncertainty.
Book Synopsis Analytics, Operations, and Strategic Decision Making in the Public Sector by : Evans, Gerald William
Download or read book Analytics, Operations, and Strategic Decision Making in the Public Sector written by Evans, Gerald William and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2019-02-15 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analytics for the public sector involves the application of operations research and statistical techniques to solve various problems existing outside of the private sector. The use of analytics for the public sector results in more efficient and effective services for the clients and users of these systems. Analytics, Operations, and Strategic Decision Making in the Public Sector is an essential reference source that discusses analytics applications in various public sector organizations, and addresses the difficulties associated with the design and operation of these systems including multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainties and resulting risk, ill-structured nature, combinatorial design aspects, and scale. Featuring research on topics such as analytical modeling techniques, data mining, and statistical analysis, this book is ideally designed for academicians, educators, researchers, students, and public sector professionals including those in local, state, and federal governments; criminal justice systems; healthcare; energy and natural resources; waste management; emergency response; and the military.
Book Synopsis COVID-19 and Society by : Mustafa Polat
Download or read book COVID-19 and Society written by Mustafa Polat and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-11-16 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely book presents a collection of expert insights into the impacts of COVID-19 in a broader socio-economic context. In each chapter, the authors identify the current impact of COVID-19 by demonstrating transformative signals and project these signals to the future by considering their alternative futures and implications. The book emphasizes that dealing with major global pandemics like COVID-19 requires all countries and regions to take different, but synchronized measures to decrease its socio-economic effects in the short, medium and long run. The consequences of COVID-19 will go beyond medicine to cover all other aspects of life and are bound to change the nature of organizations. Moving beyond the medical viewpoint, the experts in this book discuss the topic from multi-dimensional and multi-disciplinary angles by focusing on the domains of technology, business, finance, marketing, law, public administration, and education.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475544162 Total Pages :20 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin, September 2016 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin, September 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-30 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The September 2016 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin includes the following two Research Summaries: “A New Look at Bank Capital” (by Jihad Dagher, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Luc Laeven, Lev Ratnovski, and Hui Tong) and “Does Growth Create Jobs?: Evidence for Advance and Developing Economies (by Zidong An, Nathalie Gonzalez Prieto, Prakash Loungani, and Saurabh Mishra). The Q&A article by Rabah Arezki discusses “Seven Questions on Rethinking the Oil Market in the Aftermath of the 2014-16 Price Slump.” A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications are also included. Readers can also find an announcement on the 2016 Annual Research Conference and links to top cited 2015 articles in the IMF Economic Review.
Book Synopsis Governance and Policy Transformations in Central Banking by : Ahmed, Farhan
Download or read book Governance and Policy Transformations in Central Banking written by Ahmed, Farhan and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2024-02-07 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In central banking, the need for effective governance and policy transformations has never been more pressing. Central banks serve as the bedrock of a nation's financial stability, and yet, they face an array of complex challenges in the modern era. The delicate balance between autonomy from government influence and the necessity of adapting to external economic forces has become increasingly elusive. As the world grapples with the aftermath of a global pandemic and persistent economic turbulence, the demand for innovative strategies to safeguard economic and financial stability has reached a crescendo. Central bankers, economists, and policy experts are left grappling with the daunting task of navigating these treacherous waters, in dire need of a compass to guide them toward a resilient future. Governance and Policy Transformations in Central Banking is a groundbreaking book that transcends traditional boundaries to offer a comprehensive solution to the complex challenges faced by central banks worldwide. This book not only diagnoses problems, it also presents a meticulously curated collection of new empirical and theoretical chapters that illuminate the path forward. It is an invaluable resource that empowers central banks with the knowledge and tools necessary for development, governance, and policy transformation.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1513503979 Total Pages :15 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin, June 2015 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin, June 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-18 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the June 2015 issue, the Research Summaries review "Migration: An Attractive Insurance Option in African Countries" (Ahmat Jidoud) and "Investment in Emerging Markets" (Nicolas E. Magud and Sebastian Sosa). The Q&A looks at "Seven Questions on Islamic Finance” (Inutu Lukonga). The Bulletin also includes its regular listings of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, as well as information on the "IMF Economic Review." A new IMF eLibrary discussion site on energy and climate change is highlighted, along with new recommendations from IMF Publications.
Book Synopsis Household Leverage and the Recession by : Callum Jones
Download or read book Household Leverage and the Recession written by Callum Jones and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-30 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We evaluate and partially challenge the ‘household leverage’ view of the Great Recession. In the data, employment and consumption declined more in states where household debt declined more. We study a model where liquidity constraints amplify the response of consumption and employment to changes in debt. We estimate the model with Bayesian methods combining state and aggregate data. Changes in household credit limits explain 40 percent of the differential rise and fall of employment across states, but a small fraction of the aggregate employment decline in 2008-2010. Nevertheless, since household deleveraging was gradual, credit shocks greatly slowed the recovery.
Book Synopsis Supply and Demand Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefit Extensions: Evidence from U.S. Counties by : Klaus-Peter Hellwig
Download or read book Supply and Demand Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefit Extensions: Evidence from U.S. Counties written by Klaus-Peter Hellwig and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-12 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I use three decades of county-level data to estimate the effects of federal unemployment benefit extensions on economic activity. To overcome the reverse causality coming from the fact that benefit extensions are a function of state unemployment rates, I only use the within-state variation in outcomes to identify treatment effects. Identification rests on a differences-in-differences approach which exploits heterogeneity in county exposure to policy changes. To distinguish demand and supply-side channels, I estimate the model separately for tradable and non-tradable sectors. Finally I use benefit extensions as an instrument to estimate local fiscal multipliers of unemployment benefit transfers. I find (i) that the overall impact of benefit extensions on activity is positive, pointing to strong demand effects; (ii) that, even in tradable sectors, there are no negative supply-side effects from work disincentives; and (iii) a fiscal multiplier estimate of 1.92, similar to estimates in the literature for other types of spending.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy Shocks and Macroeconomic Growth in South Africa by : Eliphas Ndou
Download or read book Fiscal Policy Shocks and Macroeconomic Growth in South Africa written by Eliphas Ndou and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-09-16 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the disconnect between fiscal policy and macroeconomic development in South Africa. It analyses the factors that have contributed to the lack of economic growth in the country over recent decades and outlines an improved fiscal policy framework that increases investment and employment. Particular attention is given to the impact of government debt and its relationship with GDP, the connection between budget deficits and interest rates, and how economic policy uncertainty affects employment dynamics and inflation. This book provides practical fiscal policy suggestions to increase economic growth in South Africa and Africa more generally. It will be relevant to researchers and policymakers interested in African economics and economic policy.
Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Book Synopsis Accelerated Land Reform, Mining, Growth, Unemployment and Inequality in South Africa by : Nombulelo Gumata
Download or read book Accelerated Land Reform, Mining, Growth, Unemployment and Inequality in South Africa written by Nombulelo Gumata and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-01-03 with total page 687 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The overarching goal of South Africa’s National Development Plan (NDP) is to eliminate poverty, reduce inequality, lower unemployment and increase the labour participation.This book contributes to academic and policy efforts to achieve these NDP goals. We establish that the coal, metal ores and the platinum group commodity sectors will underpin the mining as a “sunrise” industry. The export-led growth strategy is necessary for intensive employment creation but must be complemented by other micro, macroeconomic and industrial policies. A strategy of minerals beneficiation is important for intensive employment creation. Accelerated land reform is a supply side or structural reform policy intervention tool aimed at increasing potential output, changing ownership patterns in the economy, increasing entrepreneurship, labour absorption, economic inclusion and lowering income inequality. Evidence shows that the balance sheet channel, commodity price booms and busts are intricately linked with the exchange rate dynamics, policy uncertainty, confidence and the effects of droughts (also symptoms of climate change). Productivity and investment growth shocks matter for output, employment and price stability. Evidence indicates that nominal GDP growth above 10 percent and keeping inflation within the target band leads to significant increase in employment and decline in unemployment, without inflationary pressures, especially when inflation is below 4.5 percent. To operationalise the NDP targets, align and co-ordinate policies, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) mandate can be expanded to include maximum employment. This must be complemented by lowering the inflation target band, adjusting the financial regulatory, macro-prudential and monetary policy frameworks. This will enhance the conduct and credibility of monetary and financial stability policies to achieve the set objectives. These objectives make policy co-ordination pertinent and binding.
Book Synopsis Employment Effects of Environmental Policies – Evidence From Firm-Level Data by : Mr. Adil Mohommad
Download or read book Employment Effects of Environmental Policies – Evidence From Firm-Level Data written by Mr. Adil Mohommad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-14 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The employment impact of environmental policies is an important question for policy makers. We examine the effect of increasing the stringency of environmental policy across a broad set of policies on firms’ labor demand, in a novel identification approach using Worldscope data from 31 countries on firm-level CO2 emissions. Drawing on evidence from as many as 5300 firms over 15 years and the OECD environmental policy stringency (EPS) index, it finds that high emission-intensity firms reduce labor demand upon impact as EPS is tightened, whereas low emission-intensity firms increase labor demand, indicating a reallocation of employment. Moreover, tightening EPS during economic contractions appears to have a positive effect on employment, other things equal. Quantifications exercises show modest positive net changes in employment for market-based policies, and modest negative net changes for non-market policies (mainly emission quantity regulations) and for the combined aggregate EPS. Within market-based policies, the percent decline in employment in high-emission firms (correspondingly the increase in low-emission firms) for a unit change in a policy index is smallest (largest) for trading schemes (“green” certificates, and “white” certificates)—although stringency is not comparable across indices. Finally, the employment effects of EPS are not persistent.
Book Synopsis Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations by : Mr.Pau Rabanal
Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Book Synopsis Unequal We Stand by : Jonathan Heathcote
Download or read book Unequal We Stand written by Jonathan Heathcote and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors conducted a systematic empirical study of cross-sectional inequality in the U.S., integrating data from various surveys. The authors follow the mapping suggested by the household budget constraint from individual wages to individual earnings, to household earnings, to disposable income, and, ultimately, to consumption and wealth. They document a continuous and sizable increase in wage inequality over the sample period. Changes in the distribution of hours worked sharpen the rise in earnings inequality before 1982, but mitigate its increase thereafter. Taxes and transfers compress the level of income inequality, especially at the bottom of the distribution, but have little effect on the overall trend. Charts and tables. This is a print-on-demand publication; it is not an original.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
